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Social Security Update: Most Americans Expect Donald Trump to Cut Benefits

Rogue Valley

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8.25.25
A majority of Americans believe President Donald Trump will cut Social Security benefits during his current term, according to a new report from NerdWallet. Social Security benefits are anticipated to run out of funds for full payments by around 2033, at which point the SSA would likely only have enough to pay out roughly 80 percent of promised benefits. To change this, Congress would need to act, either changing rules around payment amounts, retirement age, earnings tax or some mix of measures. Trump previously vowed not to cut Social Security benefits when the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) began making changes to the SSA, including a decision to slash 7,000 jobs from the agency. "Social Security will not be touched, it will only be strengthened," Trump said at the time. He also said during his 2024 presidential campaign he wouldn't "cut one cent" from Social Security or raise Americans' retirement age. However, 61 percent of Americans said they expect Social Security benefits to be cut during the current administration in NerdWallet's new survey of more than 2,000 U.S. adults conducted online by The Harris Poll.

"Americans aren't economists, but they can read the room," Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek. "When you see government efficiency drives targeting every agency, including the one that manages your retirement, anxiety is rational." According to the new report, another two-thirds of Americans (64 percent) also think Medicare benefits will be reduced under the current administration. Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: "Republicans have said time and again they'll never touch entitlements. Yet history shows that's not entirely true. By labeling certain provisions as 'wasteful,' they've already rolled back Biden-era expansions while still claiming the core promise is intact."

Before he leaves office, I expect Donald Trump to privitize Social Security.

What Would It Mean If Trump Privatized Social Security?
 
Two choices: Cut benefits and/or raise SS tax.
 
If he does it, the next administration needs to restore it and pay for it via clawbacks from the wealthy.
 
Long term yes, but as long as the SS ‘trust me’ fund lasts no action is likely.
Medicare is in the very same boat. These are issues that should be dealt with sooner than later. Under normal politics any solution is unpopular so nothing ever happens. But under Trump it's not normal politics so something might actually happen.
 
If MAGA Republicans hold the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms the privatization of the Social Security Trust Fund will happen and benefits will drastically be reduced.
They won't risk it before then as Democrats could easily take back the majority in both the House and Senate after the midterms.
 
Medicare is in the very same boat.

No, there is no cap on Medicare taxes. Unlike Social Security, which has a wage base limit, all of your covered wages are subject to the Medicare tax. The rate increases for higher earners, but the tax is applied to all of your earnings.

*above quote is from Google’s AI Overview*

These are issues that should be dealt with sooner than later. Under normal politics any solution is unpopular so nothing ever happens. But under Trump it's not normal politics so something might actually happen.

I doubt congress will act while Trump is still POTUS.
 
Nobody needs to stick their neck out, Social Security will naturally adjust benefits to match the available funds in a few years. It’s on autopilot.

Social Security benefits are anticipated to run out of funds for full payments by around 2033, at which point the SSA would likely only have enough to pay out roughly 80 percent of promised benefits.

Now, it would certainly be on brand for Trump to try and divert public funds to pump up one of his crypto scams or line the pockets of himself and his rich pals, so I suppose that’s possible.
 
People who are receiving benefits now will probably be grandfathered in to whatever reform the clowns in congress manage to come up with. If they come up with anything. They have about 8 years. Younger folks will probably be the ones who get hit. Plan accordingly.
 
People who are receiving benefits now will probably be grandfathered in to whatever reform the clowns in congress manage to come up with. If they come up with anything. They have about 8 years. Younger folks will probably be the ones who get hit. Plan accordingly.
Precisely why nothing should be done.
 
Ok, so something should be done then.
No, benefits will automatically adjust in a few years to match the available revenue. No one has to do anything, that's the default scenario.
 
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