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Siena College Poll: Biden in bad shap in NY state, only ahead of Trump by 10.

Biden won NY by 23 points in 2020.

But the new Siena poll today (which does polling for the NYT), has it Biden 47 and Trump 37.

Trump leads by 5% (!) among young voters 18-34.

You can't really go by polls these days as much as you used to. Why? Because most people use cell phones and don't answer unknown numbers. I live in NY and not once have been contacted (that I know of) by Siena. No one I know has either.
I don't know, I just don't believe half of what polls say.
 
I think part of Biden's problem is that he doesn't have it in him to be a demagogue, but increasingly, I think that's kind of what voters want. Nine years into Trumpism and this is kind of what voters have come to expect from a presidential candidate. Trump's appeal is that he promises to fix things with the stroke of a pen. People who are angry at the price of food and gas wish Biden would find his inner Trump. He's done that with things like the student debt cancellation and tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and I think that's helped him, politically, to some degree. He probably needs to keep doing more of it.

So much of the 20th Century was about Congress delegating more and more of their power to the Executive branch, giving his agencies the power to make rules and the power to influence monetary policy on the fly, as well as delegating war powers...I think voters have come to expect the president to behave like a demigod even if he isn't really.
 
The good news for Biden is that Trump is also polling very poorly, at least in terms of his favorability, which has slid for the past month. He might be losing even some who have stood by him through the impeachments and indictments. Not sure what exactly is going on but since around March 4, his favorability has declined and so has his lead over Biden and the rest of the field. He's still likely leading nevertheless.
From 5 Apr 2024 both Trump and Biden have lost support. Trump falling from 47.2% down to 44.5% and Biden falling from 46.5% down to 44.2% in the two-candidate race.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

In the 5 candidate or 5-way race, Trump has fallen from 43.4% down to 41.6 while Biden has fallen from 42.4% down to 40.6%

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Could be just the normal ups and downs, but whatever it is, it is happening to both major party candidates. If it were just Trump losing support, I’d attribute that to the Hush Money trial. But it’s also Biden that has lost some support. This far out, I’d say the above falls into the curiosity column that probably has no meaning in the grand scheme of things.
 
From 5 Apr 2024 both Trump and Biden have lost support. Trump falling from 47.2% down to 44.5% and Biden falling from 46.5% down to 44.2% in the two-candidate race.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

In the 5 candidate or 5-way race, Trump has fallen from 43.4% down to 41.6 while Biden has fallen from 42.4% down to 40.6%

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Could be just the normal ups and downs, but whatever it is, it is happening to both major party candidates. If it were just Trump losing support, I’d attribute that to the Hush Money trial. But it’s also Biden that has lost some support. This far out, I’d say the above falls into the curiosity column that probably has no meaning in the grand scheme of things.

I think what would-be voters are saying is, These are the best candidates our supposedly competitive system can produce? You gotta be shitting me.

It's not a competitive system anymore, and voters know it. That's why they're not jazzed about democracy anymore, so this is why whenever Biden talks about saving democracy, it doesn't really resonate with voters. Just make my grocery and gas bills lower, and we can have whatever system the billionaires decide. Of course, that type of thinking is corrosive and only makes the system weaker.
 
Most people can also see for themselves that the Earth is flat and not round.

The fact is that inflation after Covid was a global phenomenon, and America under Biden has managed it better than any other country on the planet.

I keep hearing that from democrats, Biden supporters. Probably true as I believe the economy is like the weather. No one controls it and like the weather, the economy runs in cycles. If presidents and governments could control the economy, we’d have all ups, all good times, no bad times or downs. But so many previous presidents have taken credit for a good economy, that they shout from the highest mountain tops that it was their policies that produced the good economy. Naturally, since the people always hear that, they’re going to blame the present president. That comes with the job. Biden is going to get the blame and if the economy turns around during his watch, he’ll bask in the credit.
 
I keep hearing that from democrats, Biden supporters. Probably true as I believe the economy is like the weather. No one controls it and like the weather, the economy runs in cycles. If presidents and governments could control the economy, we’d have all ups, all good times, no bad times or downs. But so many previous presidents have taken credit for a good economy, that they shout from the highest mountain tops that it was their policies that produced the good economy. Naturally, since the people always hear that, they’re going to blame the present president. That comes with the job. Biden is going to get the blame and if the economy turns around during his watch, he’ll bask in the credit.
OK great. So you agree that the economy is doing OK right now. So I am not sure that we are in such desperate straits as to need to put a rapist in the White House to fix it.
 
Just so we're clear, Biden can do very little about any of those things. The one thing he actually did do that was helping was the tax credit boost that was signed into law, but the Senate nixed the extension of it after 2022. West Virginians voted for this Democrat in Name Only, and their other senator is a Republican who, like the rest of his party, killed the credit with glee. Voters need to be reminded who they vote for - it takes more than just the president to make an economy work.




Trump trounced on the rest of his Republican field in 2016 and again in 2024, defeated Hillary Clinton, narrowly lost to Biden in 2020, and appears to be headed to victory over him in a rematch. People are confused, angry, and frustrated at a system that is increasingly controlled by corporate interests at the expense of the public interest. Voters will often vote based on their emotions more than their logic, as a means of expressing their satisfaction (or lack of it) with the state of things.

I don't see Biden's polling numbers as a reflection of Biden's performance per se, because if you look at his policies and the legislation that he's gotten over the finish line, it's actually impressive. It's just that it's not helping solve these other problems that voters are having, and frankly, there aren't really any remedies he alone can come up with. But because so much of the 20th Century was about giving the Executive power to play God, voters expect Biden to act like one.
Not in 2016. Trump won the nomination with a bit over 35% of the GOP vote. He had the largest faction within the GOP, to be sure. He kept winning primary after primary with his 35% in a 14 or 15 candidate field. I don’t call losing by 7 plus million votes a narrow loss in 2020. It wasn’t a landslide and it wasn’t a real close election either. There was really little doubt that Biden would win. Biden never trailed Trump in the polls. Biden led usually between 5-7 points from start to finish. Unlike Hillary, Biden received a majority of the 51.3% to be exact and defeated Trump by close to 5 points.

I agree with you on your last paragraph. Candidates promise so much, I’ll do this, I’ll do that, I’ll and more I’ll. All along they’re not being truthful. Most of those promises of I’ll do needs the approval of congress or it’s an issue that no president could do anything about or solve. But the president is the leader of this country, so he’s expected to solve these problems ASAP. That also comes with the job.
 
OK great. So you agree that the economy is doing OK right now. So I am not sure that we are in such desperate straits as to need to put a rapist in the White House to fix it.
What I agree on means little to nothing. It's how the masses, the voters see these things. They see Biden as an utter failure on both the economy and inflation, rising prices. Biden's president this time around. Not Trump. Usually when a sitting president runs for reelection it is solely a referendum on the sitting president. This time around that solely doesn’t apply. It’s a referendum on both a former and a sitting president. So far, it’s be a bit more of a referendum on Biden than Trump. For either one to win, they need each other. One can’t win without the other being his opponent. Each has too many flaws and liabilities. One the flaws and liabilities are personal, with the other it’s most job related and his age.
 
What I agree on means little to nothing. It's how the masses, the voters see these things. They see Biden as an utter failure on both the economy and inflation, rising prices. Biden's president this time around. Not Trump. Usually when a sitting president runs for reelection it is solely a referendum on the sitting president. This time around that solely doesn’t apply. It’s a referendum on both a former and a sitting president. So far, it’s be a bit more of a referendum on Biden than Trump. For either one to win, they need each other. One can’t win without the other being his opponent. Each has too many flaws and liabilities. One the flaws and liabilities are personal, with the other it’s most job related and his age.

Sure, agreed. But now you are talking about perceptions, not reality. If it's any testament to Biden's incompetence, it's about incompetence in public messaging, PR, and propaganda, not economic management. This mismatch is what has had economists so stumped. But there are obviously bigger factors at play here in the persistence of this perception than just Biden's competence.

"The untethering of economic facts and vibes may be part of a broader challenge of misperceptions about facts..."
 
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I think part of Biden's problem is that he doesn't have it in him to be a demagogue, but increasingly, I think that's kind of what voters want. Nine years into Trumpism and this is kind of what voters have come to expect from a presidential candidate. Trump's appeal is that he promises to fix things with the stroke of a pen. People who are angry at the price of food and gas wish Biden would find his inner Trump. He's done that with things like the student debt cancellation and tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and I think that's helped him, politically, to some degree. He probably needs to keep doing more of it.

So much of the 20th Century was about Congress delegating more and more of their power to the Executive branch, giving his agencies the power to make rules and the power to influence monetary policy on the fly, as well as delegating war powers...I think voters have come to expect the president to behave like a demigod even if he isn't really.

The problem with doing everything by executive orders is that the next president came come in and wipe it all out in one day with a stroke of a pen.

Biden, on his first day in office, literally erased like 95% of Trump's presidency with the stroke of a pen just by reversing Trump's executive orders alone. Biden on the other hand, got a lot of stuff done through legislation, which means a lot of his accomplishments and legacy can potentially last longer and withstand a future GOP president attempting to reverse it,
 
You know most of the MSM is left wing with a few exceptions like FoxNews. Most people can see for themselves by a trip to the grocery store as to the job Biden has done with the economy. The cost of clothes, shelter, etc. As for perceptions, they’re always in the eye of the beholder. Partisan views override reality in most instances. Hence the huge differences between democrats and republicans, 83% approval, 7% approval. Most of that is loyalty to party and president. I usually throw out how both major parties view things, issues, etc. I’ll go with independents which most don’t pay much attention to partisan politics until an election nears. They’re the most important group among the three as they’re the election deciders. As both major party’s base shrinks, independents have risen. From 30% of the electorate in 2006 to 42% today.

Since I tend to look at most political happenings through an election standpoint, I’ll add one more thing. In my mind, no democratic candidate should be trailing or be in a basic tie with Trump. With all his legal problems, with his very childish antics like name calling and throwing of temper tantrums like a 4-year-old spoiled brat, his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics. His obnoxious, rude, uncouth personality, his total lack of morality and behavior standards, etc. The fact Biden is in a basic tie with this guy says more about Biden than Trump in my opinion. I firmly believe almost any other democrat other than Biden would be leading Trump by 10 or more points. Most Americans think Biden’s job performance sucks, they’re worried about his age and mental fitness for another term, Biden is a very weak candidate this time around with a whole lot of liabilities that wasn’t there as a challenger in 2020. Biden’s president today, not Trump and that seems to make one heck of a lot of difference. But this is a personal opinion, everyone has them.

Nobody buys this narrative anymore. The MSM has never liked Biden, going back to the Democratic primaries. He's old, boring, he brings no excitement in the way that a Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, or Donald Trump does. Trump is a ratings machine due to the chaotic nature of him and the thugs he surrounds himself with, and the MSM misses that for the purposes of $$$. They absolutely would prefer Trump back in office over Biden, and it's obvious to anyone who is actually paying attention.
 
The problem with doing everything by executive orders is that the next president came come in and wipe it all out in one day with a stroke of a pen.

Biden, on his first day in office, literally erased like 95% of Trump's presidency with the stroke of a pen just by reversing Trump's executive orders alone. Biden on the other hand, got a lot of stuff done through legislation, which means a lot of his accomplishments and legacy can potentially last longer and withstand a future GOP president attempting to reverse it,

Understood and no disagreement at all. Only pointing out that Trump's EO theater may have its appeal in terms of how he's perceived, which is a sad commentary on our politics but a reality nonetheless.
 
Understood and no disagreement at all. Only pointing out that Trump's EO theater may have its appeal in terms of how he's perceived, which is a sad commentary on our politics but a reality nonetheless.

Trump also spent years building a phony image as a successful rich business man, who many stupid low IQ voters (especially white GOP voters) perceive as "great" on the economy based on that phony image despite Trump having one of the worst economic records for any president, ever. In fact, the last two GOP presidents were both businessmen who saw the economy go to absolute shit under their watch, and yet for some reason many people still think that wealthy businessman = great for the economy.
 
You know most of the MSM is left wing with a few exceptions like FoxNews.

The difference between left and right is that most of the MSM reports facts and Fox reports fiction and distortion. That's not an opinion, that is a documented legal fact now. I agree that the MSM is guilty of reporting what editors what viewers/readers to see/hear, but that doesn't make them left - or right for that matter.

I personally rarely read or watch mainstream news anymore, not because it's right or left but because I really don't feel like I learn much beyond the what. I would encourage anyone to go beyond MSM and select a good news-related podcast; however, even with that, it's difficult to avoid bias. Even among the most fact- and truth-thirsty of us, people inevitably listen to news programming that's in alignment with their perceptions of reality. If their own perceptions are skewed, then it's likely to be the case that these views will be even further skewed by the sources of information we get our news from.
 
The difference between left and right is that most of the MSM reports facts and Fox reports fiction and distortion. That's not an opinion, that is a documented legal fact now. I agree that the MSM is guilty of reporting what editors what viewers/readers to see/hear, but that doesn't make them left - or right for that matter.

I personally rarely read or watch mainstream news anymore, not because it's right or left but because I really don't feel like I learn much beyond the what. I would encourage anyone to go beyond MSM and select a good news-related podcast; however, even with that, it's difficult to avoid bias. Even among the most fact- and truth-thirsty of us, people inevitably listen to news programming that's in alignment with their perceptions of reality. If their own perceptions are skewed, then it's likely to be the case that these views will be even further skewed by the sources of information we get our news from.
The MSM has lost the trust of most Americans.

56% of Americans agree with the statement that "Journalists and reporters are purposely trying to mislead people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations."

58% think that "most news organizations are more concerned with supporting an ideology or political position than with informing the public."

https://www.axios.com/2021/01/21/media-trust-crisis

Now that also doesn’t mean left or right. Today, the news networks are owned by corporations which primary concern is making money. Not reporting the news in a fair, accurate or full manner. Only 32% of all Americans trust the MSM to report the news in a fair, accurate and full manner. 29% not much trust with 39% no trust at all. From Gallup.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861...utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication
 
Today, the news networks are owned by corporations which primary concern is making money.

It's always been the case. The free press has always mostly been private, for-profit free enterprise.

Not reporting the news in a fair, accurate or full manner. Only 32% of all Americans trust the MSM to report the news in a fair, accurate and full manner. 29% not much trust with 39% no trust at all. From Gallup.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861...utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Yet many of the people who say they don't trust the media will watch shit like Fox News or OANN and think they're getting their money's worth of quality info. In reality, they're being repeatedly lied to. If they watch CNN or MSNBC, they're just being under-informed and spoon-fed bite-size chunks of a much larger and more complex story.
 
But this is a pretty big deal. If Trump did actually win or come really close with the youth vote, that would be a huge shift from 2020!
They’re upset because they don’t have it easy enough.
 
Sure, agreed. But now you are talking about perceptions, not reality. If it's any testament to Biden's incompetence, it's about incompetence in public messaging, PR, and propaganda, not economic management. This mismatch is what has had economists so stumped. But there are obviously bigger factors at play here in the persistence of this perception than just Biden's competence.

"The untethering of economic facts and vibes may be part of a broader challenge of misperceptions about facts..."
People have a way of figuring this out themselves. It’s reality to them, they ask the question are they better off today than they were 4 years ago? A question Reagan made popular back in 1980. If one is worst off, it doesn’t matter what the economic indicators say. No set of numbers are going to prove different to them. It’s doesn’t matter if inflation and rising prices are global or national wide or even statewide. What matters to them is their own personal situation, better or worse. If it’s worse, whoever is president will get blamed. That is a fact of politics. That’s where the public perception of Biden’s poor handling of the economy and inflation comes from. No amount of messaging is going to change that.
 
People have a way of figuring this out. It’s reality to them, they ask the question are they better off today than they were 4 years ago?

OK. This is the reality of what things looked like 4 years ago. That some people still think they were better off like that is another testament to the power of right wing propaganda.

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