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Second hottest March on record, following the second hottest Feb on record.

Please cite what portion of the Science, you think is strong!
Start with the basics, what do you think the Scientist say the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance
will be, if we double the CO2 level?

It's very clearly outlined here, including estimates of the strength of the evidence for each and every point!

You really should read it sometime.

IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Although it was written by scientists. Maybe they have different conclusions from Scientist?
 
It's very clearly outlined here, including estimates of the strength of the evidence for each and every point!

You really should read it sometime.

IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
You have to do better than that, cite particular real science.
Like I said start with what you think the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will be from doubling the CO2 level.
 
You have to do better than that, cite particular real science.
Like I said start with what you think the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will be from doubling the CO2 level.

You're the one who said the science isn't strong... I'm just giving you a reference to what it says.

Why don't you point out where they are wrong- and actually read some of it for once.
 
You're the one who said the science isn't strong... I'm just giving you a reference to what it says.

Why don't you point out where they are wrong- and actually read some of it for once.
Gee where did I say the Science was wrong, I said the Science was weak, and challenged you to come up
with a specific cited example of what you think the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will be from doubling the CO2 level.
As usual, you have nothing but empty rhetoric.
 
Oh, wait,

Does that mean you believe paleoclimate data?

It means we find it hilarious that you post quotes that you don't realize undermine your argument. :lamo
 
Gee where did I say the Science was wrong, I said the Science was weak, and challenged you to come up
with a specific cited example of what you think the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will be from doubling the CO2 level.
As usual, you have nothing but empty rhetoric.

3G doesn't seem to understand that a link to a political organization isn't a good substitute for science.
 
3G doesn't seem to understand that a link to a political organization isn't a good substitute for science.

Odd. The link was to a scientific assessment of the issue, and one that is agreed upon to be quite solid science by virtually every single major scientific body on the planet.

The organization who backed its publication is political, but the link was to science.

Not real hard to get.
 
Odd. The link was to a scientific assessment of the issue, and one that is agreed upon to be quite solid science by virtually every single major scientific body on the planet.

The organization who backed its publication is political, but the link was to science.

Not real hard to get.
The link to the entire IPCC, is not an answer to a direct Scientific question.
The entire premise of AGW rests of the sensitivity of added CO2, and that
rests on how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will be if we double the CO2 level.
Since the concept is part of settled science, surly you can cite a peer reviewed paper which
locks down this important number with empirical data!
 
The link to the entire IPCC, is not an answer to a direct Scientific question.
The entire premise of AGW rests of the sensitivity of added CO2, and that
rests on how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will be if we double the CO2 level.
Since the concept is part of settled science, surly you can cite a peer reviewed paper which
locks down this important number with empirical data!

Heres what the IPCC says about the general issue of warming, from the AR5 SPM in WG1.

Looks like the quantified the confidence in the science to me:
E.1 Atmosphere: Temperature
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed
1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C
for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will
continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to
exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures
SPM.7 and SPM.8). {11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 14.8}

• The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range
of 0.3°C to 0.7°C (medium confidence). This assessment is based on multiple lines of evidence and assumes there will be
no major volcanic eruptions or secular changes in total solar irradiance. Relative to natural internal variability, near-term
increases in seasonal mean and annual mean temperatures are expected to be larger in the tropics and subtropics than
in mid-latitudes (high confidence). {11.3}
• Increase of global mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 is projected to likely be in the
ranges derived from the concentration-driven CMIP5 model simulations, that is, 0.3°C to 1.7°C (RCP2.6), 1.1°C to 2.6°C
(RCP4.5), 1.4°C to 3.1°C (RCP6.0), 2.6°C to 4.8°C (RCP8.5). The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global
mean, and mean warming over land will be larger than over the ocean (very high confidence) (see Figures SPM.7 and
SPM.8, and Table SPM.2). {12.4, 14.8}
• Relative to the average from year 1850 to 1900, global surface temperature change by the end of the 21st century is
projected to likely exceed 1.5°C for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence). Warming is likely to exceed 2°C for
RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high confidence), more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5 (high confidence), but unlikely to
exceed 2°C for RCP2.6 (medium confidence). Warming is unlikely to exceed 4°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 (high
confidence) and is about as likely as not to exceed 4°C for RCP8.5 (medium confidence). {12.4}
• It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on
daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase. It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a
higher frequency and duration. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur (see Table SPM.1). {12.4}
 
Heres what the IPCC says about the general issue of warming, from the AR5 SPM in WG1.

Looks like the quantified the confidence in the science to me:
That is neither a peer reviewed citation,
or an answer to the question of,
how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level.
This number is at the very heart of the concept,
Surly one of the prestigious scientist, has a peer reviewed paper that you can cite,
showing this important number!
 
Odd. The link was to a scientific assessment of the issue, and one that is agreed upon to be quite solid science by virtually every single major scientific body on the planet.

The organization who backed its publication is political, but the link was to science.

Not real hard to get.

IPCC is not a scientific organization, it is a political organization.
 
That is neither a peer reviewed citation,
or an answer to the question of,
how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level.
This number is at the very heart of the concept,
Surly one of the prestigious scientist, has a peer reviewed paper that you can cite,
showing this important number!

Again, this is your obsession, not my question.
Your original post and assertion is:
The actual Science is weak, for the case of the catastrophic warming represented by the mid to high end of the IPCC prediction.
The low end of the IPCC prediction will be inconsequential, and very likely indistinguishable from the warming pattern
that has existed since the end of the little ice age.

And I just posted what scientists say, including the likelihood which is a proxy for the strength of the science:
E.1 Atmosphere: Temperature
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed
1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C
for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will
continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to
exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures
SPM.7 and SPM.8). {11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 14.8}

I'll also note that this is very much a peer reviewed citation, and a quite strongly reviewed one, given that there were dozens of reviewers for this section, versus the two or three for most publications.

You, bizarrely, think the science is weak, but conversely think the science upholding the LOW end of the IPCC ranges to be strong, based on the one paper (Otto, et al) you seem to have read on this (that is a letter, really, two pages long) that may not even be peer reviewed, since it was more of a comment than a full paper.
 
Hold on to that belief. Its about all you've got.

Your first clue should have been that you are quoting from the "Summary for Policy Makers" created by an organization that operates under an international governmental body.
 
That is neither a peer reviewed citation,
or an answer to the question of,
how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level.
This number is at the very heart of the concept,
Surly one of the prestigious scientist, has a peer reviewed paper that you can cite,
showing this important number!

IPCC is not a scientific organization, it is a political organization.

HA! I'm reading this thread and figuring that poor guy must be wishing he took the day off.

slap-slap-slap.gif
 
Again, this is your obsession, not my question.
Your original post and assertion is:


And I just posted what scientists say, including the likelihood which is a proxy for the strength of the science:


I'll also note that this is very much a peer reviewed citation, and a quite strongly reviewed one, given that there were dozens of reviewers for this section, versus the two or three for most publications.

You, bizarrely, think the science is weak, but conversely think the science upholding the LOW end of the IPCC ranges to be strong, based on the one paper (Otto, et al) you seem to have read on this (that is a letter, really, two pages long) that may not even be peer reviewed, since it was more of a comment than a full paper.
The IPCC is not a peer reviewed citation and your quote does not answer the fundamental question,
of how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level.
ECS is a result of the input warming caused by the energy imbalance from the added CO2.
You cannot have and ECS without an energy imbalance number.
 
The IPCC is not a peer reviewed citation and your quote does not answer the fundamental question,
of how much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level.
ECS is a result of the input warming caused by the energy imbalance from the added CO2.
You cannot have and ECS without an energy imbalance number.

You clearly don't understand what peer review is.

And you still cant firm up what science is weak, or explain why the low end estimate for ECS is good but the high end is not.

Maybe Scientist knows. Ask him.
 
You clearly don't understand what peer review is.

And you still cant firm up what science is weak, or explain why the low end estimate for ECS is good but the high end is not.

Maybe Scientist knows. Ask him.
So please cite for me the peer reviewed Scientific Journal that the IPCC reports appeared in?
 
So please cite for me the peer reviewed Scientific Journal that the IPCC reports appeared in?

Its not in a journal, silly.

You'd understand that peer reviewed publications are not always in journals if you actually took some time to read the IPCC report and educate yourself. To suggest that the IPCC is not peer reviewed because it isnt published in a peer reviewed journal is, to put it bluntly, stupid beyond belief.

Maybe this link might help you.

Heres a short excerpt:

The Peer Review Process

The IPCC’s technical reports derive their credibility principally from an extensive, transparent, and iterative peer review process that, as mentioned above, is considered far more exhaustive than that associated with scientific journals. This is due to the number of reviewers, the breadth of their disciplinary backgrounds and scientific perspectives, and the inclusion of independent “review editors” who certify that all comments have been fairly considered and appropriately resolved by the authors. For example, see [2].

To be as inclusive and open as possible, a balanced review effectively begins with the choice of lead authors. By intentionally including authors who represent the full range of expert opinion, many areas of disagreement can be worked out in discussions among the authors rather than waiting until the document is sent out for review.

The first round of review is conducted by a large number of expert reviewers—more than 2,500 for the entire AR4—who include scientists, industry representatives, and NGO experts with a wide range of perspectives. Lead authors are required to consider all comments and incorporate those with scientific merit—a process overseen by review editors (two per chapter) who have expertise in the specific topic covered by a given chapter. All review comments are archived together with the authors’ responses and/or resulting actions, and are available upon request.

If major differences emerge, lead authors are encouraged to organize a meeting with both the contributing authors and review editors to discuss and resolve the differences. The goal is not to reach a potentially “watered-down” compromise that conceals scientific uncertainties or real differences in expert opinion, but to produce a report of the highest scientific integrity, reflecting the state of our understanding fairly and adequately.

The revised draft is then sent back to the expert reviewers and also to government representatives for the so-called government review stage. Each government is entitled to organize any type of review process it deems appropriate. The U.S. government, for example, seeks comments from agencies, scientific experts, and the general public (through a notice in the Federal Register) as the starting point for its comments. Again, lead authors prepare revisions in response to scientifically valid comments, and encourage reviewers and other experts to resolve any remaining major differences by communicating directly. The resulting document is then submitted to the working group’s plenary session for consideration and acceptance.

I guess I should be shocked at this breathtaking example of utter vapidity, but its starting to seem routine these days in this section.
 
Its not in a journal, silly.

You'd understand that peer reviewed publications are not always in journals if you actually took some time to read the IPCC report and educate yourself. To suggest that the IPCC is not peer reviewed because it isnt published in a peer reviewed journal is, to put it bluntly, stupid beyond belief.

Maybe this link might help you.

Heres a short excerpt:
I understand that the IPCC reports are partially derived from peer reviewed journal papers, but the reports
themselves do not count as peer reviewed publications.
So again to the simple core question, that you are failing to dodge,
How much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level?
Since I know you cannot present your own math, please cite a real Peer Reviewed paper.
 
So please cite for me the peer reviewed Scientific Journal that the IPCC reports appeared in?

This might be of interest to you and some others ...

EXPERT REVIEWER REVEALS HOW ALL FIVE IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS HAVE BEEN MANIPULATED
"Attempts of the IPCC to impose rigid discipline on a large group of scientists to persuade them to claim that human emissions of so-called greenhouse gases harm the climate, without being able to supply convincing evidence, has been a failure. Even their opinions on the supposed reliability of their 'projections' always leave an increasingly small escape route for the day when their approach is proved wrong."
- Dr. Vincent Gray


He goes though a very brief history of the IPCC and their Assessment Reports and ends with his thoughts on AR5.
Much of what he says reinforces what we know although we know others will stubbornly cling to their IPCC fantasies.
I expect I know what their reaction is going to be to his first hand analysis.

The main mechanism for ensuring uniformity of thought is applied by the presence in all of the IPCC Reports of a “Summary for Policymakers” at the beginning. This is really a Summary BY Policymakers, because it is dictated, line by line by the government representatives who control the IPCC to a group of reliable “Drafting Authors” It is published before the main Report, to emphasize the need for conformity. In addition they try to exert pressure in the choice of “Lead Authors”, and in the treatment of comments made by the “reviewers” who receive drafts of the Reports, .

They ignore completely the “hiatus” that has taken place. Their technique of “observing” this “unequivocal” and “unprecedented” warming has failed to do so for the past 17 years
The Summary for Policymakers may have been approved, and it is issued freely to the public, but it is obviously unfinished, has a large number of necessary editing, and it carries the request “Do not Cite do not Quote, do not Distribute”
For the first time they have failed to approve the Final version of the Report. They merely “accept” it and issue a list of 134 “Corrections” which are intended to make the main Report compatible with the “Summary for Policymakers”.
So we have once more the same game they played on the Second Report, except this time it is applied officially by all of them and not by one individual.

I have had a good look through all of them and have not found evidence of drastic alteration. They seem merely to be trying to improve the cover up of the so-called temperature “hiatus” which has made them feel even more confident than before that it does not matter and will soon go away.

I have managed to make my way through much of the main Report (AR5) and l have a few preliminary comments
They have laboured hard to deal with the “hiatus” by such devices as using “decadal” averages and different starting and ending dates but not very successfully
They still avoid the mismatch between “emissions” which are only from the land and “concentrations” which are mainly measured over the sea, and the fact that there is no established relationship between them
They have deliberately confused “sea level” of the ocean, usually calculated from models and “relative sea level” between sea and land which is the only one that matters
It is now obvious that the uncertainties which they have attached to estimates of the earth’s energy on their revised diagram are so much larger than the claimed “projections” of the model calculations are meaningless
As a final conclusion, attempts of the IPCC to impose rigid discipline on a large group of scientists to persuade them to claim that human emissions of so-called greenhouse gases harm the climate, without being able to supply convincing evidence, has been a failure.
Even their opinions on the supposed reliability of their “projections” always leave an increasingly small escape route for the day when their approach is proved wrong.


nzclimatescience.net - EXPERT REVIEWER REVEALS HOW ALL FIVE IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS HAVE BEEN MANIPULATED

I have something I've been waiting to post on it's own thread ... I sense the time might be right.
It details the internals of how AR4 came to be.
Pretty interesting stuff.
Governments & theScientists that participate in the IPCC have made it a closed shop so we have to rely on heretical whistleblowers for the truth.
 
This might be of interest to you and some others ...

EXPERT REVIEWER REVEALS HOW ALL FIVE IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS HAVE BEEN MANIPULATED
"Attempts of the IPCC to impose rigid discipline on a large group of scientists to persuade them to claim that human emissions of so-called greenhouse gases harm the climate, without being able to supply convincing evidence, has been a failure. Even their opinions on the supposed reliability of their 'projections' always leave an increasingly small escape route for the day when their approach is proved wrong."
- Dr. Vincent Gray


He goes though a very brief history of the IPCC and their Assessment Reports and ends with his thoughts on AR5.
Much of what he says reinforces what we know although we know others will stubbornly cling to their IPCC fantasies.
I expect I know what their reaction is going to be to his first hand analysis.



nzclimatescience.net - EXPERT REVIEWER REVEALS HOW ALL FIVE IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS HAVE BEEN MANIPULATED

I have something I've been waiting to post on it's own thread ... I sense the time might be right.
It details the internals of how AR4 came to be.
Pretty interesting stuff.
Governments & theScientists that participate in the IPCC have made it a closed shop so we have to rely on heretical whistleblowers for the truth.
One only need to understand what was going on in the climategate emails, when they said,
"I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow — even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"
They are attempting to exclude anyone who was not toeing the line.
 
I understand that the IPCC reports are partially derived from peer reviewed journal papers, but the reports
themselves do not count as peer reviewed publications.
So again to the simple core question, that you are failing to dodge,
How much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level?
Since I know you cannot present your own math, please cite a real Peer Reviewed paper.

Its increasingly clear you DONT understand this very, very simple point.

Go back and read my post again.

And again, this conversation isnt about your current fetish, its about what is weak about the science.

I think we have certainly uncovered what is weak about your coimprehension of the peer review process, which for you only magically happens when you operate a journal.
 
One only need to understand what was going on in the climategate emails, when they said,
"I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow — even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"
They are attempting to exclude anyone who was not toeing the line.

You got it.
I've never heard the context excuse that explains that one.

“I’ve been told that IPCC is above national FOI [Freedom of Information] Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working in AR5 would be to delete all emails at the end of the process,” - Phil Jones
“I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she thinks she’s doing, but its not helping the cause,” - Mike Mann
“I have been talking w/ folks in the states about finding an investigative journalist to investigate and expose Steve McIntyre” – Mike Mann
“I told Mike MacCracken that I believed our only choice was to ignore this paper. They’ve already achieved what they wanted—the claim of a peerreviewed paper. There is nothing we can do about that now, but the last thing we want to do is bring attention to this paper, which will be ignored by the community on the whole… It is pretty clear that the skeptics here have staged a bit of a coup, even in the presence of a number of reasonable folks on the editorial board 30 (Whetton, Goodess, …). My guess is that Von Storch is actually with them (frankly, he’s an odd individual, and I’m not sure he isn’t himself somewhat of a skeptic himself), and with Von Storch on their side, they would have a very forceful personality promoting their new vision. There have been several papers by Pat Michaels, as well as the Soon and Baliunas paper, that couldn’t get published in a reputable journal. This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the “peer-reviewed literature”. Obviously, they found a solution to that— take over a journal!”
“So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering Climate Research as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…”
- Mike Mann

I especially like the last one with Mann complaining about skeptics taking over a journal. You think after alarmists taking over journals & the IPCC he really didn't catch the irony?
 
Its increasingly clear you DONT understand this very, very simple point.

Go back and read my post again.

And again, this conversation isnt about your current fetish, its about what is weak about the science.

I think we have certainly uncovered what is weak about your coimprehension of the peer review process, which for you only magically happens when you operate a journal.
Actually it is your lack of understanding of what constitutes peer reviewed literature in the context of modern Science.
The IPCC reports are not peer reviewed Science!
Please stop avoiding the simple original question.
How much the top of the atmosphere energy imbalance will there be, if we double the CO2 level?
Put it in your own words if you want, but back it up with a cited peer reviewed paper.
 
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