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Scientists warn that greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come

You are the one claiming they don't.
The problem is that when I asked you to cite even one, you could not!
They still do not have the empirical evidence, and you cannot that they do.
I cannot prove a negative, but you could prove me wrong with a single citation.
Funny that you choose not to!
 
Show me where it's not. You are the one claiming the scientists are lying and what their papers say is different than what they say their papers say.
Wow...

I have corrected you on that too many damn time.

you obviously think that the bloggers and media talking heads are scientists.

I have repeatedly specified that these people lie about what the science can show in these papers.

Over and over i have said this.

Why can't you remember?
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
Yes.

So prove CO2 is as dangerous as you claim. the allegation is what needs proven. Not saying the allegation is baseless.
You are the one claiming that the entire scientific establishment is engaged in a giant conspiracy, and the abstract of their papers do not reflect the data in the bodies of all their papers. That seems like quite an extraordinary claim. So where is the evidence for this?
Bullish. Stop lying about what I say.

Please quote and link where I ever said that, or you better stop slandering me.

You are not free to slander me because you cannot or will not accept what I say.
 
They still do not have the empirical evidence, and you cannot that they do.
OK I'll bite (yet again).

An authoritative recent study found that from 1960–2019, CO₂ contributed nearly 63% of total human-caused radiative forcing, with methane and N₂O adding 11% and 6%, respectively. They emphasize how CO₂ emissions dominate modern climate change impacts:


Here is a paper looking at the quantum physical chemistry mechanisms behind WHY and HOW CO2 does this:


So now your turn.
 
We have been over this dozens of times.
We have been over this, and you have never cited a study with empirical evidence that added CO2 causes warming.
 
Wow...

I have corrected you on that too many damn time.

you obviously think that the bloggers and media talking heads are scientists.
You obviously think all the science abstracts are written by media talking heads.
I have repeatedly specified that these people lie about what the science can show in these papers.
Correction: that's just something you have asserted, with no supporting evidence. Pretty wild claim. Let's see some evidence for it. Quote us from the bodies of the papers where it shows that the conclusions in the abstracts are wrong.
Over and over i have said this.
Repeating nonsense over and over again does not make it less nonsense.
 
OK I'll bite (yet again).

An authoritative recent study found that from 1960–2019, CO₂ contributed nearly 63% of total human-caused radiative forcing, with methane and N₂O adding 11% and 6%, respectively. They emphasize how CO₂ emissions dominate modern climate change impacts:

LOL... Do you ever read and understand such material?

I stopped in the abstract of this one laughing my ass off.

We first present a method to recalibrate methane and nitrous oxide concentrations to align with published radiative forcings, ensuring accurate model performance.

Consider what was said here carefully....

they are starting at that point that someone else published what you are saying they concluded.

LOL....
Here is a paper looking at the quantum physical chemistry mechanisms behind WHY and HOW CO2 does this:


So now your turn.
Yes, and did you read it? I doubt you understood it at all. You seem to deny this:

1750707513895.webp

So here, they are saying it takes 5.4 W/m^2 of forcing to increase the temperature by 1 degree.

How much has the IPCC said we have increased CO2 forcing? I believe their last assessment report, the AR6, claims 1.82 W/m^2.

This is in line with what I have been saying.

You really should stop letting your dumbot ChatGPT tell you what to believe.

Longview would like this:

1750707765273.webp
 
LOL... Do you ever read and understand such material?

I stopped in the abstract of this one laughing my ass off.

We first present a method to recalibrate methane and nitrous oxide concentrations to align with published radiative forcings, ensuring accurate model performance.

Consider what was said here carefully....

they are starting at that point that someone else published what you are saying they concluded.

LOL....

Yes, and did you read it? I doubt you understood it at all. You seem to deny this:

View attachment 67576295

So here, they are saying it takes 5.4 W/m^2 of forcing to increase the temperature by 1 degree.

How much has the IPCC said we have increased CO2 forcing? I believe their last assessment report, the AR6, claims 1.82 W/m^2.

This is in line with what I have been saying.

You really should stop letting your dumbot ChatGPT tell you what to believe.

Longview would like this:

View attachment 67576296
You may not be understanding the physics. The 5.4 W/m²/K value is not saying that 5.4 W/m² of forcing causes 1 °C of warming—it's an upper limit estimate for the climate feedback parameter λ, which describes how much energy is radiated back to space per degree of surface warming, assuming a blackbody Earth with no atmosphere. The IPCC’s 1.82 W/m² figure is the actual radiative forcing from increased CO₂, not the feedback response. These are totally different quantities. That’s why actual warming per W/m² is less than 1°C, due to Earth’s real-world feedbacks. Also, the bit about “recalibrating methane and N₂O” just means the authors are aligning their models with observationally validated forcings—that’s standard in climate modeling, and science in general.

Still waiting for your references showing CO2 is not the major player in the observed climate change.
 
We have been over this, and you have never cited a study with empirical evidence that added CO2 causes warming.
See post #353: references showing why it does, and how it does it.
 
China has a large area for hypro power. We hav no more viable places for hydro. We used it long ago.
What’s your point? The growth in power generation in China is in wind and solar, not hydro.

Since 2020, hydro has increased by 5%, wind by 114%, and solar by 221%.
When you bring more power to China and bring more people into the modern world, China's emissions well be greater per capita than ours.
A statement based on nothing and not representative of current trends.

China’s current growth rate in power generation for 2024 was fossil fuel 1.7%, wind 12.5% and solar 43.7%. Five times as many GWh were added in renewables in 2024 as were added in fossil fuels and the plan is to increase that ratio.

On our side the plan is to drill, baby drill and put the brakes on wind and solar. Trump is even mandating that coal plants that are cost prohibitive be kept open against the wishes of states and utility companies.

It’s unlikely that China will have a higher per capita emissions than we do. Very unlikely as long as Republicans are in charge.
 
You may not be understanding the physics. The 5.4 W/m²/K value is not saying that 5.4 W/m² of forcing causes 1 °C of warming—it's an upper limit estimate for the climate feedback parameter λ, which describes how much energy is radiated back to space per degree of surface warming, assuming a blackbody Earth with no atmosphere.
We both read it wrong. They discussed feedback, but this isn't that.

That is the thermal emission change of the earth per degree, using 288k as the starting point.

My point is still valid with a small modification. The forcing of the 5.4 W/m^2 per degree is close, but modulated by absorption and emissivity. Keep in mind that at thermal equilibrium, the input equal the output.
 
OK I'll bite (yet again).

An authoritative recent study found that from 1960–2019, CO₂ contributed nearly 63% of total human-caused radiative forcing, with methane and N₂O adding 11% and 6%, respectively. They emphasize how CO₂ emissions dominate modern climate change impacts:


Here is a paper looking at the quantum physical chemistry mechanisms behind WHY and HOW CO2 does this:


So now your turn.
Thank you for demonstrating that you do not know what empirical data means!
The first study is based on simulations not observations.

As for the second study, the idea that CO2 has the capability of absorbing 15 um photons based on a 667 cm-1 di-pole moment
is well established, i.e. you are arguing a point not in contention.

Added CO2 hypothetically causes warming by reducing the OLR, the resulting positive longwave energy imbalance
forces the surface troposphere temperature higher to restore balance.

This assumption is documented in descriptions of climate models.
CO2-Dependence of Longwave Clear-Sky Feedback Is Sensitive to Temperature
To compute the radiative forcing F2<em>x</em> (W/m2) at (CO2,T<em>s</em>), we simulate the OLR decrease per CO2 doubling,
 
We both read it wrong.

That is the thermal emission change of the earth per degree, using 288k as the starting point.

My point is still valid with a small modification. The forcing of the 5.4 W/m^2 per degree is close, but modulated by absorption and emissivity. Keep in mind that at thermal equilibrium, the input equal the output.
Yep. The 5.4 W/m²/K is the change in outgoing thermal radiation per degree of surface warming, assuming a perfect blackbody at 288 K—but that’s just a baseline. In the real Earth system, you're also right that this gets modulated by factors like atmospheric absorption, emissivity, and cloud cover, which is why the actual climate feedback parameter is lower—closer to 1.5–2.0 W/m²/K. And yes, at equilibrium, incoming and outgoing energy balance—that’s the whole point of climate sensitivity: how much warming is needed to restore that balance after a forcing like CO₂ pushes it out of whack.
 
Thank you for demonstrating that you do not know what empirical data means!
The first study is based on simulations not observations.

As for the second study, the idea that CO2 has the capability of absorbing 15 um photons based on a 667 cm-1 di-pole moment
is well established, i.e. you are arguing a point not in contention.

Added CO2 hypothetically causes warming by reducing the OLR, the resulting positive longwave energy imbalance
forces the surface troposphere temperature higher to restore balance.

This assumption is documented in descriptions of climate models.
CO2-Dependence of Longwave Clear-Sky Feedback Is Sensitive to Temperature
First, simulations in climate science are based on empirical observations—they’re not just made up; they use satellite data, lab-measured spectra, and historical climate records to constrain and validate models.

Second, no one is arguing that CO₂ can absorb 15 μm radiation—that's well-established physics, as you said. The actual point of research is understanding how much additional CO₂ perturbs the energy balance and how the climate system responds, including feedbacks like water vapor and clouds. The quote about CO₂-dependent longwave feedbacks being sensitive to temperature doesn’t disprove the greenhouse effect—it refines our understanding of how strong the warming is under different conditions. That’s exactly what serious science is supposed to do: take into account ALL the variables, observations, and potentially confounding factors.

Still waiting for your papers showing CO2 has no role in climate change science.
 
See post #353: references showing why it does, and how it does it.
Nope the citations in post # 353 do not show any empirical evidence that added CO2 causes warming.
 
Nope the citations in post # 353 do not show any empirical evidence that added CO2 causes warming.
Sure they do. The first shows that it does, the second shows the mechanism through which it does.

But those aren't the only ones. Satellite measurements (like from NASA’s CERES and AIRS instruments) directly show that Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation decreases at CO₂ absorption bands as atmospheric CO₂ increases. Ground-based spectra and long-term temperature records also match the fingerprint expected from CO₂-driven forcing. Plus, paleoclimate data over millions of years show strong correlations between CO₂ levels and global temperatures, with causality confirmed through isotope analysis and timing. So while models help project future warming, the basic link between added CO₂ and observed warming, and the primary role of CO2 in the observed climate change, is empirically measured and well-documented- both in the lab and with real-world observations from multiple sources.

Still waiting for your papers showing CO2 has no role in climate change science.

3 minutes ago
 
The IPCC’s 1.82 W/m² figure is the actual radiative forcing from increased CO₂, not the feedback response.
Yes, I know.
These are totally different quantities. That’s why actual warming per W/m² is less than 1°C, due to Earth’s real-world feedbacks. Also, the bit about “recalibrating methane and N₂O” just means the authors are aligning their models with observationally validated forcings—that’s standard in climate modeling, and science in general.
Nobody has yet to show me, as many times as I asked, a quantification of this mythical feedback.

I say the feedback is already part of the calculations.
Still waiting for your references showing CO2 is not the major player in the observed climate change.
How about this. If the increase from 278 ppm to 390 ppm has the forcing of 1.82, on top of an absolute forcing of 500, then what does the simple math say?

(((501.82^0.25) / 500^0.25) x 288) - 288 = 0.262

So how much of this magical feedback in this nonlinear equation will it take to change that quarter of a degree to over one?

Maybe you can show us what matters in this paper, to indicate anything warranting alarmism.
 
First, simulations in climate science are based on empirical observations—they’re not just made up; they use satellite data, lab-measured spectra, and historical climate records to constrain and validate models.

Second, no one is arguing that CO₂ can absorb 15 μm radiation—that's well-established physics, as you said. The actual point of research is understanding how much additional CO₂ perturbs the energy balance and how the climate system responds, including feedbacks like water vapor and clouds. The quote about CO₂-dependent longwave feedbacks being sensitive to temperature doesn’t disprove the greenhouse effect—it refines our understanding of how strong the warming is under different conditions. That’s exactly what serious science is supposed to do.

Still waiting for your papers showing CO2 has no role in climate change science.
As I have already shown and you clearly did not read, the simulations are based calculations of how
much the OLR would be reduced from added CO2.
CO2-Dependence of Longwave Clear-Sky Feedback Is Sensitive to Temperature
To compute the radiative forcing F2<em>x</em> (W/m2) at (CO2,T<em>s</em>), we simulate the OLR decrease per CO2 doubling,
It is computed, not measured (Empirical).

As for how added CO2 perturbs Earth's energy imbalance, we no longer have to calculate as we have actual measurements.
Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000
The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 Wm−2 increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR)
that is partially offset by a 0.4 ± 0.25 Wm−2 increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR).
Between 2000 and 2022 the CO2 level increased, but the assumed decrease in OLR never happened, as OLR increased!
If anything the added greenhouse gases reduced Earth's energy imbalance (Cooling).
 
Sure they do. The first shows that it does, the second shows the mechanism through which it does.

But those aren't the only ones. Satellite measurements (like from NASA’s CERES and AIRS instruments) directly show that Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation decreases at CO₂ absorption bands as atmospheric CO₂ increases. Ground-based spectra and long-term temperature records also match the fingerprint expected from CO₂-driven forcing. Plus, paleoclimate data over millions of years show strong correlations between CO₂ levels and global temperatures, with causality confirmed through isotope analysis and timing. So while models help project future warming, the basic link between added CO₂ and observed warming, and the primary role of CO2 in the observed climate change, is empirically measured and well-documented- both in the lab and with real-world observations from multiple sources.

Still waiting for your papers showing CO2 has no role in climate change science.

3 minutes ago
No the first study is about simulations.
The satellite measurements recorded a net loss in the longwave spectrum.
The Planck radiation increased greater than the decrease from added greenhouse gases.
This is not some one off event, but a record spanning 22 years.
 
Yes, I know.

Nobody has yet to show me, as many times as I asked, a quantification of this mythical feedback.

I say the feedback is already part of the calculations.

How about this. If the increase from 278 ppm to 390 ppm has the forcing of 1.82, on top of an absolute forcing of 500, then what does the simple math say?

(((501.82^0.25) / 500^0.25) x 288) - 288 = 0.262

So how much of this magical feedback in this nonlinear equation will it take to change that quarter of a degree to over one?

Maybe you can show us what matters in this paper, to indicate anything warranting alarmism.
Feedbacks aren’t “magical,” but physically grounded and empirically supported. That's how nature works. Your Stefan-Boltzmann-based estimate gives ~0.26°C for CO₂’s direct warming alone, and that’s exactly right—but that's without feedbacks.

But the Earth isn’t a simple blackbody with no feedbacks; water vapor increases with temperature (a strong positive feedback), ice melts and exposes darker surfaces (albedo feedback), and cloud behavior changes too. These feedbacks are why observed warming is already ~1.2°C despite a forcing of ~2.7 W/m² (from all greenhouse gases, not just CO₂). This amplification cascade is directly seen in climate reconstructions and satellite data.

As for “alarmism,” it's not about panic—it's about recognizing that even small shifts in energy balance can cause large, system-wide changes over time. That’s the real concern—not a quarter-degree, but what comes next.

We don't have an exact number to quantify the effects of the feedback with pinpoint accuracy, but results from multiple lines of enquiry and observations have been narrowing that range quite a bit- and there's reason to have some concern that it could be pretty bad.
Sherwood et al. (2020), which used a Bayesian framework to combine three independent lines of evidence—climate process understanding, the historical warming record, and paleoclimate data—to hone in on a more precise equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimate.

journals.ametsoc.org+15giss.nasa.gov+15egusphere.copernicus.org+15

That analysis concluded a likely ECS range of 2.6–3.9 °C, with an extended 66 % range of 2.3–4.5 °C. Sherwood’s follow‑up commentary in 2024/2025 emphasized that further narrowing is possible but cautioned that structural uncertainties—like cloud processes and paleoclimate proxies—still need refinement.

So Sherwood’s team has significantly tightened the ECS range, making low‑end sensitivities (<2 °C) very unlikely, though ongoing work continues to refine and test the upper boundary.

So we have a range, and are working to refine it further. But one thing we don't have is a study saying that CO2 plays no role. I guess the question comes down to how much risk are we willing to take with this? It's like the Dirty Harry question: Do I feel lucky?

Well, do ya?
 
See post #353: references showing why it does, and how it does it.
You keep denying an important fact.

The radioactive behavior of CO2 by itself is not the same in a complex atmosphere. You need to prove it with all the other variables and interactions around it in the atmosphere.
 
Yep. The 5.4 W/m²/K is the change in outgoing thermal radiation per degree of surface warming, assuming a perfect blackbody at 288 K—but that’s just a baseline. In the real Earth system, you're also right that this gets modulated by factors like atmospheric absorption, emissivity, and cloud cover, which is why the actual climate feedback parameter is lower—closer to 1.5–2.0 W/m²/K. And yes, at equilibrium, incoming and outgoing energy balance—that’s the whole point of climate sensitivity: how much warming is needed to restore that balance after a forcing like CO₂ pushes it out of whack.
Show the actual feedback.

It is stated to be water vapor feedback, but look at any earth energy budget and that number is too small for an additional 7% per degree to matter.

Where does this mythical feedback come form?
 
Still waiting for your papers showing CO2 has no role in climate change science.
Stop right there.

You keep demanding that someone show something not claimed. Is this the limit of your understanding? Binary thinking? All or nothing?

Nobody is saying CO2 has no role. Only that it is not as strong as claimed.

Are you seriously that blind to the facts of what is stated?
 
You keep denying an important fact.

The radioactive behavior of CO2 by itself is not the same in a complex atmosphere. You need to prove it with all the other variables and interactions around it in the atmosphere.
The fact that a CO₂ molecule contains a radioactive isotope like carbon-14 CO2 doesn’t make much difference in how it behaves as a greenhouse gas. Radiative properties—like how CO2 absorbs and emits infrared radiation—depend mostly on molecular vibration and rotation, which are only slightly affected by the extra mass of ¹⁴C. But even then, the shift is tiny and doesn’t change the overall effect. Carbon 14 isotopies of CO2 contributes less than 0.0000001% of total CO2 molecules, and its absorption spectrum barely shifts and overlaps with the dominant Carbon 12 CO2 spectrum.

If you know of any studies that suggest a significant difference, let us know.
 
Stop right there.

You keep demanding that someone show something not claimed. Is this the limit of your understanding? Binary thinking? All or nothing?

Nobody is saying CO2 has no role. Only that it is not as strong as claimed.

Are you seriously that blind to the facts of what is stated?
OK. Then maybe you can show us any studies that say its role is negligible?
 
Show the actual feedback.

It is stated to be water vapor feedback, but look at any earth energy budget and that number is too small for an additional 7% per degree to matter.

Where does this mythical feedback come form?
You’re right that when you look at a basic Earth energy budget, the instantaneous number for water vapor forcing may look small—but feedback isn’t measured by energy budgets directly. It’s inferred from how outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) changes with temperature. Satellite missions like NASA’s CERES and AIRS have shown that as surface temperatures rise, OLR doesn’t increase as fast as blackbody expectations, due to enhanced water vapor trapping more heat (e.g., Dessler et al., Science, 2010). That’s the feedback. And it’s not just theoretical—it’s baked into how climate sensitivity estimates are derived. Multiple studies (like Soden & Held 2006, and Sherwood et al. 2020) find that water vapor feedback alone roughly doubles the warming caused by CO₂ alone. So it may look small on a diagram, but its cumulative effect is large—and measurable.
 
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