Russia's right to counterattack

[Lafayette]

As a matter of fact the then Ukrainian government of Poroshenko did launch a military campaign to suppress the ethnic Russian rebellion in the Donbass. The Donbass population was up in arms over the coup in Kiev against the ethnic Russian President Victor Yanukovych.

We don't have to go back 80 years. Ethnic Russians in Ukraine have the same right to object to domination by majority ethnic Ukrainians, just as ethnic Ukrainians had in their turn objected to domination by majority Russians

They have a right, yes, but there is also a bit of logic that prevails.

The Ukraine is going to get didly-shat from Russia. In a totally independent political relationship the country could obtain a lot of business from the European Union - and namely Germany. They would not at all mind a lower-cost manufacturer of products such as the German cars being made in North Africa at the moment.

VW, Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler and BMW are among the biggest car-manufacturing companies in Africa today. So, why not the Ukraine with its much lower pay-rates but closeness to the EU car-marketplace ... ?

 

[NatMorton]

We should wait to the late summer or early fall to invade Russia. That’s what history’s great military strategists have done.

 

[Juin]

Most Russophone Ukrainians identify as Ukrainians and are happy about living in Ukraine. They used to be Eurosceptic and advocating for a closer relationship with Moscow, and while as I understand they still tend to be Eurosceptic, most of them don't want anything to do with Moscow since 2014.

Gosh! Why would an ethnic Russian in Ukraine not love Ukraine? He must love the ethnic Ukrainian Nationalists who overthrew the then Russophone President. How can he not? And I am sure nothing tickled the ethnic Russian in Ukraine like when the first business of the Banderas Parliament in Kiev was to embark on a program of de Russification of Ukraine.

The ethnic Russians of Ukraine must be self hating Russians going by your thesis.

 

[joluoto]

Gosh! Why would an ethnic Russian in Ukraine not love Ukraine? He must love the ethnic Ukrainian Nationalists who overthrew the then Russophone President. How can he not? And I am sure nothing tickled the ethnic Russian in Ukraine like when the first business of the Banderas Parliament in Kiev was to embark on a program of de Russification of Ukraine.

The ethnic Russians of Ukraine must be self hating Russians going by your thesis.

Most Russophone Ukrainians identify as Ukrainians not Russians.

 

[Lafayette]

There is nothing to gain.

The real question we should be asking... How would the US react to Mexico, Cuba or Canada allowing Chinese/Russian/flavour enemy of the year, to set up military bases in said countries?

Well, that DID happen in Cuba.

And we Yanks close by survived ... !

 

[PeteEU]

Well, that DID happen in Cuba.

And we Yanks close by survived ... !

And what was the US reaction... any different than the Russia now?

 

[Tangmo]

Coming soon to a country near Russia....

Two phases of possible Russian invasion: British report​

The UK Defence Ministry, citing intelligence data, has published a map showing seven routes by which Russia could attack Ukraine. The map also shows how the invasion could take place.

Two phases of possible Russian invasion: British report

According to a map released by the UK Defence Ministry Russia would attack Kyiv and the city of Dniepr and later on move further into Ukraine.

tvpworld.com

The map suggests what British Military Intelligence has analyzed as being at stake in the conflict around Ukraine and disputing Russian claims of withdrawing some troops.

Three strike groups would be directed at the capital city of Kyiv, two of them from the north and one from the territory of Belarus where Russian and Belarusian troops are currently conducting maneuver exercises.

Three other strike forces would penetrate to the city of Dnieper, one from the north and two from the east; one force from the east would hook northward but only after seizing Marupol to gain land access to Crimea. The seventh strike force would be launched from Crimea towards the east to Vinnytsya to secure the country's southern region. Putin also needs desperately to control the Dnieper River so he can blow the dam Kyiv constructed that blocks the Russian Crimea's fresh water source and flow.

In a potential second phase of the invasion, the troops to hit the Dnieper would move further west towards Vinnytsya, while a strike would be launched from the Crimea towards the city of Odessa to the west. “Russia maintains a significant military presence that enables an invasion without further warning," according to British intelligence. While British Military Intelligence is in the chorus that keeps saying it's never too late for diplomacy, we also know that the longer diplomacy goes on without anything changing the less likely it is that diplomacy would succeed.

Russian forces preparing attack against Ukraine in 'coming days': Blinken​

FWIW Each Feb. 23 in Russia is a national holiday called Defender of the Fatherland Day. It's also observed in Austria and Belarus. Ukraine abolished the holiday in 1992. Now Putin wants to abolish the sovereign independent nation Ukraine is. Good money says the 23d and has been saying so for all of this month.

 

[Tangmo]

And what was the US reaction... any different than the Russia now?

USA and Russia are not morally equal.

Nor ethically equal.

Not values equal.

Overall and all things considered the US is the good guy. Conversely and all things considered Russia is the bad guy. The US and Russia are not on a par, not in any way, except for nuclear warheads and delivery systems.

International relations is not a game of equals, ie, there's always the bottom line of who overall is the good guy and whom is the definitive bad guy. The two don't compare, they contrast only.

 

[Rich2018]

Germany almost took Moscow.

THAT is what still scares the Russians.

Why ?
Napoleon DID take Moscow and Alexander II got further West than the Red Army did in 1945.

 

[Juin]

Most Russophone Ukrainians identify as Ukrainians not Russians.

I disagree. Ukraine has Ukrainians, Russians, Hungarians, Jews, Bulgarians, Tartars in its ethnic composition. Next you will be telling me ethnic Hungarians, ethnic Tartars, ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine identify as ethnic Ukrainians.

Moreover the Ukrainian government and ethnic Ukrianians have targeted for suppression media that is Russian. Who was the consumer of Russian language media in Ukraine? The Ukrainian government has also targeted certain political parties in Ukraine deemed pro Russian, Medvedchuk the leader of one such party is under house arrest.

What you are engaging in is Russian erasure in Ukraine. Exactly what Putin has been complaining about.

 

[Bum]

RUSSIAN RECENT HISTORY

From the Guardian here: Russian envoy warns of right to counterattack in eastern Ukraine

Very subtle that title. It means to say, I interpret, that the Russians are awaiting an attack by the opposing force - and that they are simply underlining their "right to defense". Yeah, right!

What that illegitimate head of Russia has been doing is to "play games" that justify his presence in office. And the fact that when Russian-presidential rule finally came his way, his boss at the time arranged for the pilfering of Communal National Property amongst his henchmen who made them wildly rich literally overnight.

Excerpt from Wikipedia here: Russian Oligarch



The fact of the matter is that the head-of-state in Russia at that time simply allowed a group of his supporters to swipe the belongings of the Russian people's existing state-assets, that is, all state-ownership of existing companies. That is, those companies capable of making a profit in an open-market enterprise that Russia has become.

THAT is the Russia today the army of which faces the Ukrainians. It is run by a bunch of very rich thieves.

Moreover, the Russian people know well these perpetrators. And since history has a way of "coming around", some of them have all bought superb costly residences in the right-places outside-of-Russia. Namely the southwest of France or London, or the US. The Russian properties they have can thus be lost if they suddenly needed to live ... uh ... elsewhere than Russia ...

I fully expect Russia to "counter attack" the same way Germany "counter attacked" Poland in 1939.

 

[Juin]

USA and Russia are not morally equal.

Nor ethically equal.

Not values equal.

Overall and all things considered the US is the good guy. Conversely and all things considered Russia is the bad guy. The US and Russia are not on a par, not in any way, except for nuclear warheads and delivery systems.

International relations is not a game of equals, ie, there's always the bottom line of who overall is the good guy and whom is the definitive bad guy. The two don't compare, they contrast only.

Correct in so far as international relations not being a game of equals. But definitely wrong as to the bottom line being who is good or who is bad. Bottom line is who has the bigger gun.

 

[Juin]

Coming soon to a country near Russia....

Two phases of possible Russian invasion: British report​

The UK Defence Ministry, citing intelligence data, has published a map showing seven routes by which Russia could attack Ukraine. The map also shows how the invasion could take place.

Which is why I am convinced it is all an elaborate game of brinkmanship on the part of Putin. It is indeed rare in history where an Army about to invade appears to do everything to make its intentions obvious. If the intention is to intimidate then it all makes perfect sense. Otherwise it all goes against common sense.

But only Putin knows what he wants to do. And maybe he has not even decided what to do yet.

Lets assume he choses to attack:

I dont think he will take Kiev. But threatening Kiev makes good sense. I do not see how Ukraine leaves Kiev undefended. That will be from the Dictator's 2014 playbook. In military maneuvers at the time Putin managed to mass some blocks of troops off the north east of Ukraine. Then he sprung the trap on Crimea. What does Kiev do? Forces sent by Kiev towards Crimea would have to be heading south; exposing its flanks and rear to the Russian forces massed by Putin off Ukraine's north east! That could not be ignored. Actually the recommended thing to do would be to first eliminate the Russian threat to the north east of Ukraine, inside Russia, before heading south to liberate Ukraine. Ukraine froze. It was checkmate.

But it makes sense, a maybe worthwile, to seize Ukraine's littoral. Even if Odessa is not taken it will cease to be a port for Ukraine if it is under Russian guns.

Just my few cents. My opinion on this is not worth a dollar.

 

[Juin]

I fully expect Russia to "counter attack" the same way Germany "counter attacked" Poland in 1939.

Big powers do that all the time. The US has more than a few "counter attacks" under its belt. Libya, Syria, Iraq.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Which is why I am convinced it is all an elaborate game of brinkmanship on the part of Putin. It is indeed rare in history where an Army about to invade appears to do everything to make its intentions obvious. If the intention is to intimidate then it all makes perfect sense. Otherwise it all goes against common sense.

But only Putin knows what he wants to do. And maybe he has not even decided what to do yet.

Lets assume he choses to attack:

I dont think he will take Kiev. But threatening Kiev makes good sense. I do not see how Ukraine leaves Kiev undefended. That will be from the Dictator's 2014 playbook. In military maneuvers at the time Putin managed to mass some blocks of troops off the north east of Ukraine. Then he sprung the trap on Crimea. What does Kiev do? Forces sent by Kiev towards Crimea would have to be heading south; exposing its flanks and rear to the Russian forces massed by Putin off Ukraine's north east! That could not be ignored. Actually the recommended thing to do would be to first eliminate the Russian threat to the north east of Ukraine, inside Russia, before heading south to liberate Ukraine. Ukraine froze. It was checkmate.

But it makes sense, a maybe worthwile, to seize Ukraine's littoral. Even if Odessa is not taken it will cease to be a port for Ukraine if it is under Russian guns.

Just my few cents. My opinion on this is not worth a dollar.

I expect it is a pretense to get have the Donbass region declare formal independence from Ukraine, and have that come as a relief internationally rather than a war

 

[Juin]

They have a right, yes, but there is also a bit of logic that prevails.

The Ukraine is going to get didly-shat from Russia. In a totally independent political relationship the country could obtain a lot of business from the European Union - and namely Germany. They would not at all mind a lower-cost manufacturer of products such as the German cars being made in North Africa at the moment.

VW, Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler and BMW are among the biggest car-manufacturing companies in Africa today. So, why not the Ukraine with its much lower pay-rates but closeness to the EU car-marketplace ... ?

There was always a win win for Ukraine all the way back to 1991. Ukraine was also a big industrial center for the Soviet Union, and after the fall of the Soviet Union was still the market from which the Russian Federation purchased lots of products that had earlier come from there. Ukraine stood to benefit from both worlds: the EU and the Russian Federation. And for a long time Ukrainians in their majority were fine with being between both worlds. But Nato/Eu would not have that. Ukraine had to ditch everything and join Eu.

 

[Bum]

Big powers do that all the time. The US has more than a few "counter attacks" under its belt. Libya, Syria, Iraq.

Indeed it has, and it makes it no less despicable....you will not see me defending it.

 

[Schrott]

I disagree. Ukraine has Ukrainians, Russians, Hungarians, Jews, Bulgarians, Tartars in its ethnic composition. Next you will be telling me ethnic Hungarians, ethnic Tartars, ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine identify as ethnic Ukrainians.

Moreover the Ukrainian government and ethnic Ukrianians have targeted for suppression media that is Russian. Who was the consumer of Russian language media in Ukraine? The Ukrainian government has also targeted certain political parties in Ukraine deemed pro Russian, Medvedchuk the leader of one such party is under house arrest.

What you are engaging in is Russian erasure in Ukraine. Exactly what Putin has been complaining about.

But this is what Europe is, every country in Europe is a multy ethnic country, no matter where you go in Europe. There are even countries where you have to speak multiple languages. All that is part of our history, were the borders of a country changed every generation, or people moved from depressed areas to more prosperous areas, hundreds or thousands of miles away, or invaders brought their own people and they settled.
Europe has been a huge melting pot of people of different ethnic background. It is a cross road, always has been, always will be.
What has changed after WWII, we except it. You live as citizens within the borders of state A, then that is who you are. With the EU we went a step further.
We are now EU citizens.

This ethnic is rather silly in our modern world, especially coming from the US, were patriotism stands above ethnic origin.

 

[Schrott]

There was always a win win for Ukraine all the way back to 1991. Ukraine was also a big industrial center for the Soviet Union, and after the fall of the Soviet Union was still the market from which the Russian Federation purchased lots of products that had earlier come from there. Ukraine stood to benefit from both worlds: the EU and the Russian Federation. And for a long time Ukrainians in their majority were fine with being between both worlds. But Nato/Eu would not have that. Ukraine had to ditch everything and join Eu.

Its the other way around. After 1991 the Ukraine was able to be in between. With Putin that changed. Him and his cronies in the Ukraine aliened it with Russia, against the will of the people. For Putin the Ukraine had to become a satellite of Russia, march as you are told.
Crimea was no problems in those times. Only when Putin's buddy got his ars kicked out of the Ukraine, the trouble started. Its Putin's doing, not the West.
He learned a lesson, why do you think he is so big into Belarus. That dictator ars hole is his buddy, servant. Without Putin's support that sucker would be hiding in a hotel in Moscow

 

[Juin]

I expect it is a pretense to get have the Donbass region declare formal independence from Ukraine, and have that come as a relief internationally rather than a war

That also makes sense. I think the Donbass region should declare independence. Why not? There is nothing sacrosanct about Ukraine's territorial integrity anymore than the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union. Heck Czechoslovakia split up into Czech and Slovakia. I see no reason why Ukraine cannot split up into Ukro and Donbass

 

[Juin]

But this is what Europe is, every country in Europe is a multy ethnic country, no matter where you go in Europe. There are even countries where you have to speak multiple languages. All that is part of our history, were the borders of a country changed every generation, or people moved from depressed areas to more prosperous areas, hundreds or thousands of miles away, or invaders brought their own people and they settled.
Europe has been a huge melting pot of people of different ethnic background. It is a cross road, always has been, always will be.
What has changed after WWII, we except it. You live as citizens within the borders of state A, then that is who you are. With the EU we went a step further.
We are now EU citizens.

This ethnic is rather silly in our modern world, especially coming from the US, were patriotism stands above ethnic origin.

@joluoto said, "Most Russophone Ukrainians identify as Ukrainians not Russians." I disagree. And not only that, I see that Russophobic and prima facie Russian erasure. It is akin to saying most Scots in the United Kingdom identify as English; or most Basques in Spain identify as Spaniards. The evidence on the ground in Ukraine does not justify the suggestion that ethnic Russians in Ukraine are not an aggrieved minority. The Ukrainian President of ethnic Russian origin got evicted in a coup. And Victor Medvedchuk, a prominent opposition politician and ethnic Russian, is in house arrest; the Russian language media he owned suppressed. That is de Russification.

The west either ignores revendications of ethnic Russian minorities in newly minted states or outright erase them.

Estonia is another interesting example. When the fine republic became independent it set up the rules of citizenship such as to eliminate anyone who was not there before WWII! So Russians born in Estonia between end of WII and 1991 were excluded from citizenship! Where is that European High Court that has been ruling against Hungary and Poland?

 

[Juin]

There was always a win win for Ukraine all the way back to 1991. Ukraine was also a big industrial center for the Soviet Union, and after the fall of the Soviet Union was still the market from which the Russian Federation purchased lots of products that had earlier come from there. Ukraine stood to benefit from both worlds: the EU and the Russian Federation. And for a long time Ukrainians in their majority were fine with being between both worlds. But Nato/Eu would not have that. Ukraine had to ditch everything and join Eu.

Its the other way around. After 1991 the Ukraine was able to be in between. With Putin that changed. Him and his cronies in the Ukraine aliened it with Russia, against the will of the people. For Putin the Ukraine had to become a satellite of Russia, march as you are told.

Is it illicit for a President of Ukraine to be pro Russian? Therein lies the problem. A fraction of Ukraine- the ethnic Ukrainian majority- will not brook a pro Russian President. And you say it was against the will of the "people"; that is too generous; that was not the will of the Donbass and Crimea area.

And exactly what is it about the ethnic Russian Victor Yanukovych you object to other than that he is pro Russian? Was he any more corrupt than any of the other Ukrainian Presidents?

Crimea was no problems in those times. Only when Putin's buddy got his ars kicked out of the Ukraine, the trouble started.

Do you even read what you write? You are ok with a coup, provided it is against Russian leaning individuals.

Its Putin's doing, not the West.
He learned a lesson, why do you think he is so big into Belarus. That dictator ars hole is his buddy, servant. Without Putin's support that sucker would be hiding in a hotel in Moscow

Terrific!

 

[Schrott]

No, nothing wrong to be pro Russia, but you are on the wrong side of democracy. The people of the Ukraine decided that they will not be on the wrong side.
They want democracy, their own way, but they will not become a Russian colony again.

I am very much fine with coup if a dictator gets run out of town.
Americans hang on to their guns, just because of that, a dictator government might take over.
There is 10s of thousands in the US who train for it, prep for it, the over throw of government.
Do you agree with them.
Why should the folks in the Ukraine should not have the same rights ?
Its not about Russia, its about Putin.
If you like Putin, you belong in the trash, if Putin is your buddy, you are trash, disgusting

 

[Tangmo]

Just my few cents. My opinion on this is not worth a dollar.

That's because the dollar is worth a hellovalot more than the lousy ruble.

That's why.

And it's the only reason why.

 

[Tangmo]

Correct in so far as international relations not being a game of equals. But definitely wrong as to the bottom line being who is good or who is bad. Bottom line is who has the bigger gun.

Whatever you do don't quit your day job cause you're a lousy comedian.

It's a matter of resources and the successful management of the marshaled resources. Democratic societies ultimately prevailed in both world wars of the 20th century. Democracies rebuilt the conquered peoples into prosperous post war and well managed societies. Democracy won the Cold War because democratic society is superior to any authoritarian collectivist one past, present, future.

Russia and China are self condemned to the ash heap of history. Each of 'em is absent the moral authority, ethical framework and the values that are inherent to success in the modern world and era. They need to adapt or perish. Russia collapsed twice in the 20th century to bookend it. Yet we see the post Soviet Russian leaders have learned nothing from it.

In China each and every dynasty has failed, and this present dynasty in their business suits will fail too, because the Chinese always do the same groundhog day reaction when the going gets tough. They give more power to the numbnuts gang who are mucking up the works to begin with. Indeed, Xi Jinping has already declared himself emperor for life -- as the leader of all groundhogs. So as we can see the Chinese never learn either.

As Gen. MacArthur said, "Only the dead have seen the end of war." So one can only hope Russia and China are the last two major projects of history. It's hard to be even that grimly optimistic however.