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The analysis raises questions about Russian agents’ movements in unstable African countries. “We know what the digital signatures of Wagner look like. We know ISIS. We know the Russian military, Chinese, you name it,” Torchlight AI CEO James Bourie said. “We built these behavioral models so we can query our data and see it on the ground. And the way we do that is by measuring this demographic data on every spot on the ground against every one of our behaviors over key dates.” These tracking tools picked up on an actor who frequently visits military installations in eastern Russia. He flew to Togo, then used ground transportation to enter Niger on July 29, three days after a coup deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. In Mali, Torchlight detected two people linked to the Wagner mercenary group close to the time of the Niger coup. One left Moscow’s main airport on July 16 and flew to the Al Jufra Airbase in Libya, which has reportedly served as a Wagner staging base. They then hit the Bamako International Airport, another Wagner-linked airport, on Aug. 5, and traveled through Mopti International Airport in Mali that same day, and again on Aug. 15. Mali, which itself is ruled by a military junta following a coup in 2020, has lent support to the new overthrow in Niger.
Following the coup in Gabon, Torchlight AI began tracking a person who was based at a police/military installation in Libreville, Gabon. On July 11, the person went to the Russian embassy in Libreville, then visited the upper house of parliament and the Treasury. On July 25, the person went to the Presidential Palace, home to the Republic Guard, whose leader led the coup, Torchlight AI notes in their analysis. The Niger coup in particular has huge ramifications for U.S. counter-terrorism operations in Africa, and Kremlin-backed actors used social media channels like Telegram to spread disinformation about the coup shortly after it took place. But the U.S. government has yet to say publicly that Russia was involved in the recent coup activity in Africa. While Torchlight’s analysis does not conclusively show the Russian military was directly involved, it does highlight key interactions between Russians and key African government officials close to the time of each coup.
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