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Russia could default on its debt within days


Given that everyone acknowledges (and complained about) the Poles announcing they were handing the fighters over to NATO for delivery, and that Biden killed the deal, then it would seem the Chancellery must be speaking of Poland being unwilling to hand the planes directly to Ukraine, but not about providing them for NATO or someone else to do it.

So again, 'everyone' was no one was adamantly against providing fighters to Ukraine, until BIDEN killed the whole deal and killed the green light.
 
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It's obviously not a matter of 'escapes their thinking'; they're aware of the possibilities. But, they refuse to take those avenues.



That is the $64K question.

I initially was pretty harsh on what I was was Biden's timid response. As he cranked up the sanctions intensity, and I saw NATO's unity strongly coalesce, and especially now that I am beginning to see the depth & ramifications of the sanction, I'm ameliorating my criticisms somewhat.
From my view Biden's, or rather more so his administration's, response is still timid. Rather than putting sanction in place while Putin was threatening invasion with his troop build ups, rather than non-stop NATO exercises during this build up period, waited until after the invasion to implement sanctions, and didn't have those sanctions ready to go on a moment's notice. Biden predicted the invasion for something like a week before, and yet didn't have a response already prepared?

I think your ameliorating is far too generous.

It's not just Biden that nixed the plane transfer publicly, but also Poland and NATO have come-out adamantly against it. Are they all feckless? Perhaps. Or, they may no more than us. Time will tell.
Poland was willing, don't understand their wanting to make a stop at Rammstein though, Kirby at the pentagon was willing so clearly the US Chief's of Staff were willing, Blinkin even came out publicly for it, so State was in support of this, it was only Biden that said no, so it is only Biden who is feckless, apparently.

"The idea that we're going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand, don't kid yourself, no matter what y'all say, that's called World War III," Biden told House Democrats during a visit to Philadelphia.​
This comes after Secretary of State Antony Blinkin said Sunday that the U.S. had given Poland the "green light" to send fighter jets to Ukraine after Poland offered to send 28 MiG-29s.​

What's the difference between shipping in anti-tank and anti-aircraft arms and fighter jets? Are those not 'offensive weapons'?
In neither of these cases would there have been 'planes and tanks and trains going in with American pilots and American crews'.
What the hell is Biden talking about? What the hell is he making this decision on?

The latest arms package, which officials say includes Javelin antitank missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles, follows a $350 million arms package that the Biden administration approved last month. Altogether, the administration has authorized $1.2 billion in weapons for Ukraine in the past year, officials said.​
The weapons come from existing U.S. military stockpiles in Europe and are flown to neighboring countries such as Poland and Romania, where they are shipped overland into western Ukraine. In less than a week at the beginning of the Russian assault, the United States and NATO pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelins, into the hands of Ukrainian commanders.​

I'd like to see all the nations of NATO shipping in arms, including Poland's old Migs, which was exactly what Ukraine was asking for.
 
He's likely to do both within the span of the same week. Are we talking about Donald Trump on Tuesday afternoon right after a meeting with the hawks in his cabinet, or Donald Trump on Thursday morning after a phone call from Vlad with his marching orders?
Is that the "I alone can fix it" Trump or the Trump who didn't take any responsibility at all for his handling of Covid?
 
What are the specific repercussions of Russia defaulting on certain debts? Other than the creditor losing out on money, and Russia less likely to be loaned money going forward, does this change anything in the near term in a meaningful way?

This type of default is worse than, say, a borrowing binge that can't be repaid. In an Argentina-style default, there's short-term hyperinflation followed by austerity in which the state has limited ability to borrow and pay for anything beyond basic infrastructure. But over time, working with creditors, countries facing this kind of default can recover, and investors will often help them if they're a capital market of any consequence.

But Russia's in a different spot. They're facing a default, a banking crisis, a currency crisis, and hyperinflation, and with indefinite sanctions, their hands are really tied in terms of recovering. However, that being said, Russia is different from other countries in that they have lots of energy, lots of precious metals, and lots of food - lots of things people want and need. So if Putin wouldn't to launch a counter-strike economically, he can. He'd hurt his own people, too, but if he's in a position where he's got nothing to lose...he'd turn off the pipes flowing into Europe.

The immediate consequence is that Russia will have a very difficult time sustaining any presence in Ukraine, and I suspect that, for that reason, they're probably looking for a face-saving way out. Intel estimates had Russia's military surviving about 1-3 weeks before facing a logistics crisis and that was over a week ago - looks like the intel was right on that one. The indiscriminate bombing was done deliberately to give Russia the ability to bargain from a position of strength. They can't occupy Ukraine, but they can still bomb the shit out of it.
 
Given that everyone acknowledges (and complained) that the Poles announced they were handing the fighters over, and that Biden killed the deal, then it would seem the Chancellery must be speaking of Poland not handing the planes directly to Ukraine, but for NATO or someone else to do it.

So again, 'everyone' was no one was adamantly against providing fighters, until BIDEN killed the whole deal and the green light.
Poland is a NATO country

Next
 
And, to which I thank god it's not Trump. He would either be insane enough to attack, or turn over on his belly like a defeated dog.

Agreed.

I don't see Trump having the patience or wisdom to take the proper reasoned approach.

Trump deals from emotion, 'all or nothing', 'black or white', 'choose your side'. Yet life is not like that. Trump lacks the focus and ability to deal with the complexities of International Politics & Foreign relations, where there rarely is 'black or white'.

Trump would either be 'all in', or 'all out', which is the intellectually lazy way to make a decision, because that's what he is - intellectually lazy.

In addition, Trump treats affairs from a PR events perspective, rather than from the perspective of solving issues.

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I'm very relieved he's not in office during this. These type of concerns were one of the reasons I voted him out of office.
 
And, to which I thank god it's not Trump. He would either be insane enough to attack, or turn over on his belly like a defeated dog.
Neither of those hypotheticals has any evidence to support them.
 
Doing stupid shit has consequences.

It's unfortunate that the Russian people who do not support this shit or support it but are too ignorant of the truth will suffer more then the Kremlin Crumbs.

Being a part of a very large diverse metro area, and having a lot of diverse circles in my life, I often run with Poles.

We know the Polish jokes & stereotypes, particularly over previous decades. But we must be cognizant of the life the Poles lived, from the time of Stalin to the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. They were virtually enslaved, most kept uneducated, nearly all lacking in any access to any knowledge of events or realities outside of Russian propaganda, and they were even lacking in the basics of capital exchange, employment, and capitalism itself.

So when Polish emigres came to the States just after the fall of the Iron Curtain, they came with no knowledge of the Western World, society, culture, technology, or capitalism, business, and oblivious to business/cultural/societal norms. that we take for granted

But now, scant decades later, look at them! (y)

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The Russian People are not our enemy, just as back then the Polish people were not; the Russian dictatorship is our enemy.

Obviously, with Russia specifically, it's a bit more complicated than with Poland. But in general, I think my sentence above is reasonably accurate.
 
Agreed.

I don't see Trump having the patience or wisdom to take the proper reasoned approach.

Trump deals from emotion, 'all or nothing', 'black or white', 'choose your side'. Yet life is not like that. Trump lacks the focus and ability to deal with the complexities of International Politics & Foreign relations, where there rarely is 'black or white'.

Trump would either be 'all in', or 'all out', which is the intellectually lazy way to make a decision, because that's what he is - intellectually lazy.

In addition, Trump treats affairs from a PR events perspective, rather than from the perspective of solving issues.

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I'm very relieved he's not in office during this. These type of concerns were one of the reasons I voted him out of office.
Trump would take both sides of the actions, in the same day.
 
Is that the "I alone can fix it" Trump or the Trump who didn't take any responsibility at all for his handling of Covid?
Its the impulsive ADD with oppositional defiance disorder and narcissistic personality disorder Trump.
 
He's likely to do both within the span of the same week. Are we talking about Donald Trump on Tuesday afternoon right after a meeting with the hawks in his cabinet, or Donald Trump on Thursday morning after a phone call from Vlad with his marching orders?

Fair point.
 
Maybe? Should he get credit based on a maybe?

What do we know of that he is responsible for, that is worthy of praise?

As far as I know that column in his ledger is blank.
trouble 13: you could just be honest with the forum and admit that if Biden cured cancer, brought about a great economy, created world peace, and gave you tonight's winning lottery numbers, you would not consider it praiseworthy.
 
No idea if the day would come, but I suspect he would lob a small tactical weapon (as a strategy), rather than a full blown ICBM.
I hope so IF he does anything like that but as we can see he is getting pressured and might do anything
desperate people do desperate things
Have a nice day
 
My understanding is the Poles wanted us to “backfill” the MiGs by providing them with a timely transfer of an equivalent used aircraft, like the F-16.

But how about we just stop making this more complicated than necessary. Biden is willing to accept more dead Ukrainians as a fair price to pay for avoiding any possible “escalation” because he’s letting Putin set the rules. Never mind the fact that Russians supplied aircraft and pilots to North Korea during the Korean War, and aircraft, technicians, and SAM missile site operators to the North Vietnamese during the Vietnam War. Apparently, these acts are only escalatory in Biden’s mind if we’re doing it.
And there were going to put Nuks in Cuba and trying to build a Russian military base out of the Island
Have a nice day
 
Given that everyone acknowledges (and complained about) the Poles announcing they were handing the fighters over to NATO for delivery, and that Biden killed the deal, then it would seem the Chancellery must be speaking of Poland being unwilling to hand the planes directly to Ukraine, but not about providing them for NATO or someone else to do it.

That's your inference, but the statement stands on its own.

So again, 'everyone' was no one was adamantly against providing fighters to Ukraine, until BIDEN killed the whole deal and killed the green light.

Besides the Chancellery & BBN, both Duda & Stoltenberg also announced it together - maxparrish:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that European Union members will not lend fighter jets to the war in Ukraine, after days of mixed messages from officials across Europe.

“NATO allies provide different types of military support: material, anti-tank weapons, air defense systems and other types of military equipment for Ukraine, humanitarian aid and also financial support. But NATO is not to be part of the conflict,” he said in a joint appearance with Polish President Andrzej Duda at the country’s Łask Air Base.



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I honestly don't see the worth in further hypothesizing this arcane point any further, to be honest.

I've now given you multiple source of public statements that you seem to refute through personal inference, even though the statements appear unequivocal.

So, I'm not really sure what you want here, or why?
 
I am using the common term colloquially used. I didn’t create the terminology.

Lol

The people in Russia commonly referred to as “oligarchs” have little to no real political influence.
Try a dictionary.

Lol, learn English.

Your final missive is just . . . everything about it is wrong. It's ok. Lots of people don't know what they're talking about.
 
As Poland was the one that gifted its planes and plan to deliver them to NATO for transfer, the only adamant opposition I am aware of came from the officialdom in the Pentagon. They lobbied Biden to cancel Sec of State Blinken's green light initiative with the poles, and the "green light" turned into a "red light".

Your original criticism stands. Numerous former generals and officers, including the former head of NATO, have considered BIden's inactions dead wrong. So has a majority of Congress and of the American people.
A poster on another thread, one with knowledge in the matter said that NATO planes are fitted with special equipment which would need to be removed
before any transfer could take place.
 
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