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Russia Closes in on Mariupol as Part of Eastern Ukraine Offensive

Rogue Valley

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4.12.22
Russian troops aimed to take control of the city of Mariupol on Tuesday, part of an anticipated massive onslaught across eastern Ukraine, as defending forces tried desperately to hold them back. Russia is believed to be trying to connect occupied Crimea with Moscow-backed separatist territories Donetsk and Lugansk in Donbas, and has laid siege to the strategically located city, once home to more than 400,000 people. "It is likely that in the future the enemy will try to take control of the city of Mariupol, capture Popasna and launch an offensive in the direction of Kurakhove in order to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk region," the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Facebook. The Russian Defense Ministry said it army had thwarted an attempt to break the siege with "airstrikes and artillery fire" at a factory in a northern district of the city. But the Ukrainian army insisted that "the defense of Mariupol continues." "The connection with the units of the defense forces that heroically hold the city is stable and maintained," the Land Forces of Ukraine wrote on Telegram.


Yesterday Russian forces cut Mariupol in half, separating the seaward half from the rest of the city. The 36th Regiment of the Ukraine Marines reports that the situation is grim. What is left of the Regiment (no infantrymen remain alive) is the walking wounded and they are surrounded. Ammunition is almost all gone and resupply is impossible. The remaining Ukraine forces are fighting from the main port of Mariupol in the southwest, and the Azovstal steel plant in the east. They say they will fight to the end, but I suspect the remnants will surrender, possibly today. The Azov Regiment which had been stationed in Sektor-M (Mariupol) since it was re-formed in 2015 as a police regiment is decimated. I suspect Russian forces will execute any Azov soldiers captured alive. Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said the civilian death toll in Mariupol could exceed 20,000. Reports from inside the devaststed city say that a Russian drone dispersed a chemical agent that caused respiratory failure, dizziness, vomiting and problems with the nervous system. Eduard Basurin, Press Secretary of the DPR Military Command, said phosphorous and gas agents would be used to clear basements. Mariupol is a dystopian hell for the trapped civilians, no food, no water, no electricity, no heat, and a fear that Russian forces will execute all military age men remaining in the city. Syrian ally Iran is reportedly supplying the Russian military with weaponry.

Any day now the Russians will commence their new offensive to capture all of Donetsk oblast and encircle ~60,000 Ukraine soldiers in this region. One thing that helps them is that, unlike around Kyiv, there are plenty of railroad lines here for resupply. What hurts them is that the spring rains have begun which means Russian armor and trucks must remain on paved roads (fewer here than around Kyiv). This should make them more vulnerable to attacks with Javelin's, NLAW's, loitering drones, etc. If Putin is to win any victories in Ukraine, he must do it now with a massive blitzkrieg and create a land-bridge between occupied Donetsk and occupied Crimea. His aim is to accomplish this goal by May 9 which is celebrated in Russia as Victory Day. It is crucial that the West keep pouring weapons into Ukraine and assisting Zelenskyy in every way possible.
 

Nomad4Ever

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Yesterday Russian forces cut Mariupol in half, separating the seaward half from the rest of the city. The 36th Regiment of the Ukraine Marines reports that the situation is grim. What is left of the Regiment (no infantrymen remain alive) is the walking wounded and they are surrounded. Ammunition is almost all gone and resupply is impossible.
:(

It is insane they have lasted this long.
 

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~.................................... His aim is to accomplish this goal by May 9 which is celebrated in Russia as Victory Day. ..............~
That day is actually more than crucial for him since, without any "success" narrative, he's gonna look very egg-faced when taking the ginormous May-9 parade.

The great Patriotic War victory on one side of history and the puny failure on the other won't be looking good even to his most ardent supporters.
 

EMNofSeattle

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Yesterday Russian forces cut Mariupol in half, separating the seaward half from the rest of the city. The 36th Regiment of the Ukraine Marines reports that the situation is grim. What is left of the Regiment (no infantrymen remain alive) is the walking wounded and they are surrounded. Ammunition is almost all gone and resupply is impossible. The remaining Ukraine forces are fighting from the main port of Mariupol in the southwest, and the Azovstal steel plant in the east. They say they will fight to the end, but I suspect the remnants will surrender, possibly today. The Azov Regiment which had been stationed in Sektor-M (Mariupol) since it was re-formed in 2015 as a police regiment is decimated. I suspect Russian forces will execute any Azov soldiers captured alive. Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said the civilian death toll in Mariupol could exceed 20,000. Reports from inside the devaststed city say that a Russian drone dispersed a chemical agent that caused respiratory failure, dizziness, vomiting and problems with the nervous system. Eduard Basurin, Press Secretary of the DPR Military Command, said phosphorous and gas agents would be used to clear basements. Mariupol is a dystopian hell for the trapped civilians, no food, no water, no electricity, no heat, and a fear that Russian forces will execute all military age men remaining in the city. Syrian ally Iran is reportedly supplying the Russian military with weaponry.

Any day now the Russians will commence their new offensive to capture all of Donetsk oblast and encircle ~60,000 Ukraine soldiers in this region. One thing that helps them is that, unlike around Kyiv, there are plenty of railroad lines here for resupply. What hurts them is that the spring rains have begun which means Russian armor and trucks must remain on paved roads (fewer here than around Kyiv). This should make them more vulnerable to attacks with Javelin's, NLAW's, loitering drones, etc. If Putin is to win any victories in Ukraine, he must do it now with a massive blitzkrieg and create a land-bridge between occupied Donetsk and occupied Crimea. His aim is to accomplish this goal by May 9 which is celebrated in Russia as Victory Day. It is crucial that the West keep pouring weapons into Ukraine and assisting Zelenskyy in every way possible.
Mariupol has been effectively under DPR control for two weeks now, the resistance is largely in an industrial zone outside of the main city.
 

Nomad4Ever

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Mariupol has been effectively under DPR control for two weeks now, the resistance is largely in an industrial zone outside of the main city.
That is some Hilarious cope. The city was only bifurcated yesterday. Up until then it had maintained a circular defense. They still control the main harbor and there is a second pocket in the norther portion of the city center. Keep in mind the city has been defended by a few thousand forces that were originally peacekeeping police force.

Mariupol has been a devastating embarrassment to Russia considering how long it has taken them to get this far.
 

EMNofSeattle

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That is some Hilarious cope. The city was only bifurcated yesterday. Up until then it had maintained a circular defense. They still control the main harbor and there is a second pocket in the norther portion of the city center. Keep in mind the city has been defended by a few thousand forces that were originally peacekeeping police force.
Lol. This sounds like supercope. Two weeks ago DPR officials were freely walking in the center of the city. What you have is outnumbered holdouts operating out of tunnels and they cannot be resupplied.
Mariupol has been a devastating embarrassment to Russia considering how long it has taken them to get this far.
Not really. They’ve taken the operation on their own time and they’re winning
 

Nomad4Ever

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This sounds like supercope. Two weeks ago DPR officials were freely walking in the center of the city. What you have is outnumbered holdouts operating out of tunnels and they cannot be resupplied.
Mariupol is a main military objective literally right next to the Russian controlled Donbass. Literally right on the border. It is also on the sea that Russia completely controls so they have naval supremacy in the area. There were only a few thousand military police defends to begin with.

So yeah. It is embarrassing.
They’ve taken the operation on their own time
That's one way to frame being forced into a stalemate.
 

EMNofSeattle

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Mariupol is a main military objective literally right next to the Russian controlled Donbass. Literally right on the border. It is also on the sea that Russia completely controls so they have naval supremacy in the area. There were only a few thousand military police defends to begin with.
If the only defenders were a few thousand military police it would already be under control, if it were a main military objective the garrison is likely 15 thousand at least. Or was
So yeah. It is embarrassing.

That's one way to frame being forced into a stalemate.
Yeah if I lived in Mariupol and was loyal to the Kiev regime I don’t think I’d be calling this a “stalemate”
 

Nomad4Ever

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If the only defenders were a few thousand military police it would already be under control, if it were a main military objective the garrison is likely 15 thousand at least. Or was
But the prospects do not look good: Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are vastly outnumbered, with 3,500 soldiers facing 14,000 invaders, around a tenth of the total estimated Russian force in the country.
 

Juin

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Mariupol has been a devastating embarrassment to Russia considering how long it has taken them to get this far.



It is not unusual in the annals of seige warfare. They usually last weeks or months
 
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