Rubio prepares for brokered convention

[cpwill]

You claim to know the math and then disregard the facts. NONE of the polling shows Rubio coming anywhere close to number one. That's the only number that counts. Number two is called the loser. Rubio's delegate math is similarly crippled.

And you haven't been listening to what the Cruz's people say if you think they've been praising Rubio.

I listen to Glenn Beck. Vander Plats came out last night on twitter praising Rubio as well.

For the math, I tend to trust 538. They are the ones who point out that Rubio's path forward is more narrow than Trump's, and broader than Cruz's. For the not-Trumps, at this point, Rubio has the best shot. Looking at the available polling and the delegate counts, they are correct. Cruz is ahead of Rubio in Texas, and nowhere else. As states award their delegates proportionally, Rubio will end up ahead of Cruz in the delegate count as they move through Super Tuesday, if we assume that current trends hold. If we add in that Rubio typically picks up a plurality of late-deciders, then that advantage somewhat increases. If we shift to account for the power of endorsements on elections, it increases more significantly.

Trump is the favorite at this point to win the nomination. But Rubio's path to beating him is wider than Cruz's. Which is why some of his core supporters are looking to possibly jump ship into the Rubio camp.

Kasich is pretty clearly at this point shooting for Trump VP, though now he's in competition with Christie (sucks to be Christie, you can't trust Trump to stick to a deal. As soon as it gets to convention and Trump can be helped by Kasich, you are going over the side). No idea what Carson thinks he is doing. Both staying in is clearly a huge (yuge) boon to Trump at this point, as it further divides his opposition and allows him to continue to win with a plurality, rather than having to appeal to a majority of Republican voters.

 

[disneydude]

Wrong. Rubio cannot show one, not one place he can win until it's all over. By the time he gets a win, the race will be done. He may be thinking this is the Special Olympics, where second or third is winning, but it's not.

Bingo. If Rubio cannot win in Florida, he doesn't have a shot at winning anywhere else. At least Cruz will likely win Texas.

 

[cpwill]

Under that scenario, he wins the generals easily. He'll get the repubs he "fooled" and the dems who by your supposition put him in place.

:doh Under that scenario, he throws the general.

 

[danarhea]

Under that scenario, he wins the generals easily. He'll get the repubs he "fooled" and the dems who by your supposition put him in place.

My supposition has nothing to do with it. I see through all the bull****, and my vote is solidly third party again this year. This is the problem with the 2 party system - They polarize everybody in a divide and conquer strategy, and if you vote for either, you lose. Yes, we the people will lose again this year, but my silver lining is that, when I walk out of that voting booth, I will be one of those very rare people who can say with a straight face "I don't feel dirty".

 

[danarhea]

I wouldn't be so quick to discount it. I think the GOP is extremely unhappy with what they have right now and are willing to give Romney another look.

The GOP would have a better chance with Trump, which is still no chance at all. Their last hope is Rubio. LOL.

 

[OpportunityCost]

:shrug: a majority of Republican's don't want Trump. All we have to do is get it to a contested convention.

A much larger majority don't want Rubio.

CP, you are wish casting some.

In a brokered convention you may wind up with Trump/Cruz. Just saying it may backfire very, very hard.

 

[disneydude]

I listen to Glenn Beck. Vander Plats came out last night on twitter praising Rubio as well.

For the math, I tend to trust 538. They are the ones who point out that Rubio's path forward is more narrow than Trump's, and broader than Cruz's. For the not-Trumps, at this point, Rubio has the best shot. Looking at the available polling and the delegate counts, they are correct. Cruz is ahead of Rubio in Texas, and nowhere else. As states award their delegates proportionally, Rubio will end up ahead of Cruz in the delegate count as they move through Super Tuesday, if we assume that current trends hold. If we add in that Rubio typically picks up a plurality of late-deciders, then that advantage somewhat increases. If we shift to account for the power of endorsements on elections, it increases more significantly.

Trump is the favorite at this point to win the nomination. But Rubio's path to beating him is wider than Cruz's. Which is why some of his core supporters are looking to possibly jump ship into the Rubio camp.

Kasich is pretty clearly at this point shooting for Trump VP, though now he's in competition with Christie (sucks to be Christie, you can't trust Trump to stick to a deal. As soon as it gets to convention and Trump can be helped by Kasich, you are going over the side). No idea what Carson thinks he is doing. Both staying in is clearly a huge (yuge) boon to Trump at this point, as it further divides his opposition and allows him to continue to win with a plurality, rather than having to appeal to a majority of Republican voters.

The latest polls showing Rubio not only losing Florida but getting TROUNCED in Florida is going to hurt his chances of this occurring. I agree that there was probably some thought of defection. However, when people see that Rubio can't even win his home state, they are going to rethink that strategy. I'm beginning to believe that the GOP's ONLY shot at defeating Trump is for Rubio to drop out and for them to put their collective strength behind Cruz. Afterall, after Texas Cruz will at least have 2 wins under his belt, Rubio will have nothing other than a string of 2nd, 3rd and 5th place finishes without a state in sight that he is likely to win. Not exactly a strong road for Rubio.

 

[disneydude]

:shrug: a majority of Republican's don't want Trump. All we have to do is get it to a contested convention.

An even larger majority don't want Rubio or Cruz.

 

[danarhea]

The latest polls showing Rubio not only losing Florida but getting TROUNCED in Florida is going to hurt his chances of this occurring. I agree that there was probably some thought of defection. However, when people see that Rubio can't even win his home state, they are going to rethink that strategy. I'm beginning to believe that the GOP's ONLY shot at defeating Trump is for Rubio to drop out and for them to put their collective strength behind Cruz. Afterall, after Texas Cruz will at least have 2 wins under his belt, Rubio will have nothing other than a string of 2nd, 3rd and 5th place finishes without a state in sight that he is likely to win. Not exactly a strong road for Rubio.

I disagree. Polls show Rubio ahead of Cruz in several races.

 

[disneydude]

I disagree. Polls show Rubio ahead of Cruz in several races.

True...but second and third place finishes isn't going to cut it. At least Cruz will win Texas. Where is there a state that Rubio can win?

 

[clownboy]

The National Review has proven itself to be clueless this election. They've been wrong every time. 538 predictive polling shows Trump getting the delegate count that puts him over the top by March 15th. There is no chance, by their very own polling of Rubio taking a significant delegate count or winning even one state before March 15th. His home state is lost to him.

Even if Cruz dropped out tomorrow, his voters would not go to Rubio. He's been branded, by Cruz himself as a gang of eighter (very much hated by Cruz voters).

 

[clownboy]

My supposition has nothing to do with it. I see through all the bull****, and my vote is solidly third party again this year. This is the problem with the 2 party system - They polarize everybody in a divide and conquer strategy, and if you vote for either, you lose. Yes, we the people will lose again this year, but my silver lining is that, when I walk out of that voting booth, I will be one of those very rare people who can say with a straight face "I don't feel dirty".

You're giving yourself way too much credit for basically throwing your vote away. I highly doubt Trump voters will feel dirty when they leave the booth. They'll likely feel victorious.

 

[danarhea]

True...but second and third place finishes isn't going to cut it. At least Cruz will win Texas. Where is there a state that Rubio can win?

It's not about winning. It's about splitting the vote so badly that Trump can't get the majority of delegates. It goes to a brokered convention at that point, where Trump will most likely be taken out.

 

[disneydude]

It's not about winning. It's about splitting the vote so badly that Trump can't get the majority of delegates. It goes to a brokered convention at that point, where Trump will most likely be taken out.

I think if the GOP wants a brokered convention...then both Cruz and Rubio stay in. I was discussing a situation where the GOP wants to try to take Trump out before a brokered convention. At this point, their best chance is for Rubio to drop out and try to promote Cruz as the Trump alternative. He is the only one who has beaten Trump and has any shot at beating Trump in a 1 on 1 race. Rubio can't do it...hell....Rubio can't even make a strong showing in his home state. THAT is pathetic.

 

[QuadpolarNutjob]

the establishment republicans will definitely try something, but trump will likely run as a 3rd party if they succeed, and i will gladly support him in it. i'd rather have clinton or sanders than submit to the farce of a republican puppet candidate.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

It's not about winning. It's about splitting the vote so badly that Trump can't get the majority of delegates. It goes to a brokered convention at that point, where Trump will most likely be taken out.

If the Gop want to stop trump at the convention, I think that would require the party establishment bending the rules of how delegates are awarded.

 

[cpwill]

An even larger majority don't want Rubio or Cruz.

True, but opposition to Trump is far deeper, and broader across the party. I think an ABT faction is pretty much in evidence at this point.

True...but second and third place finishes isn't going to cut it. At least Cruz will win Texas. Where is there a state that Rubio can win?

He is narrowing the gap in Florida, and needs to win there, I agree, to win the nomination.

If all we have is to fight it to the convention, and then form whatever alliances are necessary at the convention to stop Trump, then that will be an effective public service for him to perform.

I disagree. Polls show Rubio ahead of Cruz in several races.

Going by 538's tracker, he is ahead of Cruz in every Super Tuesday race except for Texas.

 

[cpwill]

If the Gop want to stop trump at the convention, I think that would require the party establishment bending the rules of how delegates are awarded.

Only if he wins a majority. If not, then anything goes on the second ballot.

 

[cpwill]

A much larger majority don't want Rubio.

CP, you are wish casting some.

In a brokered convention you may wind up with Trump/Cruz. Just saying it may backfire very, very hard.

If so, then so. But I will not cease opposition to Trump at any point. Better we lose the White House to Hillary than give over our party to Fascism.

 

[OpportunityCost]

If so, then so. But I will not cease opposition to Trump at any point. Better we lose the White House to Hillary than give over our party to Fascism.

Wait. You see Trump as a fascist? The establishment wing has shown itself to be authoritarian and underhanded much more than Trump has.

 

[cpwill]

Wait. You see Trump as a fascist?

Militant Nationalism wedded to Middle Class Socialism? Check.
Authoritarianism? Check
Support for Corporatist Economic Structures in order to bend private economic transactions to public purpose while benefiting politically connected industrialists? Check
Heavy demagogic use of betrayal narratives focused on identifiable and often unliked minority? Check.
Implicit or Explicit rejection of ideological parties in favor of Third Way / "Getting Things Done" and "Being A Man Who Does Things?" Check.
Strong-Man focus with corresponding Cult of Personality? Check.

So, yeah. What Trump represents is American fascism. Historically more common in Democrat / Lefty circles, but it pops up in Republican ones as well.

The establishment wing has shown itself to be authoritarian and underhanded much more than Trump has.

:lamo Nope. Trump is the most authoritarian person in this race, barely edging Hillary. No one else bullies like him, as publicly as him, as gleefully as him, and gets their fans to do so as well, as him.

If the Establishment were as authoritarian as Trump, they would have gotten their *&*$&! act together, and beaten him down by now. Instead, it turns out (as expected) they are a bunch of cowardly ninnies, afraid he might single them out and say nasty things about them on television (which, considering that some in his fan base would consider that a call to begin issuing death threats against their children, does make sense).

 

[danarhea]

If so, then so. But I will not cease opposition to Trump at any point. Better we lose the White House to Hillary than give over our party to Fascism.

Get ready to be called a RINO for that statement, but I agree with you. LOL.

 

[cpwill]

Get ready to be called a RINO for that statement, but I agree with you. LOL.

I don't care what I'm called and I'm fully willing for my stock here to collapse with other conservatives. There are times in our lives when you have to - within the small realms of our influence - take a stand.

I enlisted after college as a PFC in the United States Marine Corps infantry because my country was at war, and I felt that I owed her my service. This is no different.

 

[danarhea]

I don't care what I'm called and I'm fully willing for my stock here to collapse with other conservatives. There are times in our lives when you have to - within the realms of your influence - take a stand. I enlisted after college because my country was at war, and I felt that I owed her my service. This is no different.

People are saying that it shouldn't be Rubio, and they cite his inexperience, and say "Give him a few more years". They may have forgotten about someone named Barack Obama when they said that.

I'm still going to vote for Gary Johnson, but IMHO, Rubio is the best choice for the GOP.

 

[HowardBThiname]

It's not about winning. It's about splitting the vote so badly that Trump can't get the majority of delegates. It goes to a brokered convention at that point, where Trump will most likely be taken out.

That's a lot of wishful thinking, given the most recent polls.

I'm stunned Trump got this far, but I think another poster called it correctly....a lot of Americans are not admitting to be his supporters - while - in secret, they are his supporters.