• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Romney Bump: FL, VA, OH, NV

T

The Prof

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 26, 2009
Messages
12,828
Reaction score
1,808
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

today's state polls

FL: waa, romney +3

FL: rasmussen, romney +2

VA: waa, romney +3

VA: ras, romney +1

OH: waa, romney +1

OH: ras, obama +1

NV: gravis, obama +1
 
Wow. Just wow.

That's not all debate performance. Some of that might be the pollsters trying to be more accurate by the time the race ends.
 
Big gains in Ohio and good progress in FL. VA is a red state historically so he really should be up by more. AA turnout could kill him there still and pundits are starting to focus in on VA as the FL of 2012.
 
ksu_aviator said:
Wow. Just wow.

That's not all debate performance. Some of that might be the pollsters trying to be more accurate by the time the race ends.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. All those polls were conducted entirely after the debate performance, and Romney's win was a huge story for the last two days. I'd say it's reasonable to assume that Romney just got a good bump from the debate.
 
Ohio poll: Romney leads 51-48 among those certain to vote | WashingtonExaminer.com

Overall, the race is deadlocked with Obama over Romney 50 percent to 49 percent, according a new Rasmussen Reports poll taken Thursday night.

But among the stunning 92 percent of likely voters in the state who say that they are certain to go to the polls on Election Day, Romney leads 51 percent to 48 percent. And among the 83 percent who have already made up their minds how they will vote, Romney is ahead of Obama 52 percent to 48 percent.

The president, however, has a two-to-one lead among the 17 percent "who could still change their minds between now and Election Day," said Rasmussen.

On Thursday, Secrets reported that the GOP has closed the large gap Democrats held in requests for absentee ballots used for early voting, a sign that Romney is doing better in the state than some other polls have shown.

Romney is also gaining with Ohio voters when it comes to who is best to handle the economy and national security.

Rasmussen said that in September, Ohio voters trusted Romney more than the president when it comes to handling the economy by a narrow 48 percent to 46 percent margin. Now, he has a 49% to 45% lead in voter trust on the economy.

On national security, Romney edges Obama 48 percent to 47 percent. Last month, Obama had a five-point lead.

And 50 percent think the economy will improve if Romney wins and the GOP keeps the House and wins back the Senate. Not so if Democrats win. Just 34 percent think the economy will improve if Obama wins reelection and the Democrats Congress, with 40 percent believing it will get worse.
Click to expand...
 
Internals are still wacky - show an increase in support from Democrats, and big increase among Independents, but losing support from Republican base.
 
The Prof said:
RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

today's state polls

FL: waa, romney +3

FL: rasmussen, romney +2

VA: waa, romney +3

VA: ras, romney +1

OH: waa, romney +1

OH: ras, obama +1

NV: gravis, obama +1
Click to expand...

So now the polls are accurate! One week all the polls are wrong next week spiking the football over poll numbers! I appreciate the entertainment guys!!
 
iliveonramen said:
So now the polls are accurate! One week all the polls are wrong next week spiking the football over poll numbers! I appreciate the entertainment guys!!
Click to expand...

I do have to notice how when the polls were showing Romney in a clear downward trend they were all made up and completely wrong, but now that they say what these guys want they are correct.

However, like before when coupled with a real event that would back up what is a estimation game based on small samples is something i can believe. In other words, romney did good for the first time in his campaign, and no duh people are going to see him in a better light. It was also a big fail for obama who many thought was going to wipe the floor with Romney as Romney feasted on his shoes. For an actual change the Romtadrs actually have a reason to celebrate and do not have to try twisting reality into a pretzel to pretend Romney actually did himself a favor during one of his public moments.

Now all Romney has to do is keep it going for 4 more weeks, and maybe it might be enough to overcome his deficit. Can he actually defend his blatant lies, stop saying stupid stuff, and not have any other major blows to his campaign in the next month? Enjoy the moment Republicans, it has been a long time coming, and you have had many reasons to hang your head in shame over the past year.
 
Maybe I haven't been following it closely enough, but I just doubt that these polls will bear out and continue to improve. I'll probably cast my vote for Romney in November, but I don't really see a path where he wins. The hole just seems too deep. Maybe if there are a series of very good debates (like Ryan vs. Biden next week) and a good advertisement and press strategy. But what do I know.
 
tererun said:
I do have to notice how when the polls were showing Romney in a clear downward trend they were all made up and completely wrong, but now that they say what these guys want they are correct.

However, like before when coupled with a real event that would back up what is a estimation game based on small samples is something i can believe. In other words, romney did good for the first time in his campaign, and no duh people are going to see him in a better light. It was also a big fail for obama who many thought was going to wipe the floor with Romney as Romney feasted on his shoes. For an actual change the Romtadrs actually have a reason to celebrate and do not have to try twisting reality into a pretzel to pretend Romney actually did himself a favor during one of his public moments.

Now all Romney has to do is keep it going for 4 more weeks, and maybe it might be enough to overcome his deficit. Can he actually defend his blatant lies, stop saying stupid stuff, and not have any other major blows to his campaign in the next month? Enjoy the moment Republicans, it has been a long time coming, and you have had many reasons to hang your head in shame over the past year.
Click to expand...

I'm not saying the polling is inaccurate (though only a couple of polls have been released so far) but yeah...I agree....
 
Fisher said:
Big gains in Ohio and good progress in FL. VA is a red state historically so he really should be up by more. AA turnout could kill him there still and pundits are starting to focus in on VA as the FL of 2012.
Click to expand...

Historical trends in Virginia are rather inaccurate due to the substantial shift in demographics in population over the past two decades of Virginia due to the extensive and sizable growth in Northern Virginia that is largely more center-left in nature. It's really best to be viewed at this point as a truly purple state
 
Mithros said:
You think it's good that people think the country is headed in the wrong direction?
Click to expand...

Not an unreasonable thing to feel if he believes that the country is heading in the wrong direction and thus needs a change...as it would mean that the more people who think we're on the wrong track the more likely it is they'll get off that track.

It's sort of like being excited that a loved one admits to being an alcoholic after you've been watching themselves drink themselves into a stupor for a few years. You're not going "YAY! You're an alcoholic!" you're going "YAY! You finally realize it and accepted it and thus may actually take action to change it".

Now you may agree with Travis in terms of the country being on the wrong track and needing ot make a change....but acting like it's some kind of astonishing notion to be happy that people are becoming "aware" of what he believes is reality is rather silly.
 
iliveonramen said:
So now the polls are accurate! One week all the polls are wrong next week spiking the football over poll numbers! I appreciate the entertainment guys!!
Click to expand...

Nobody said that... It just shows Romney gaining.
 
ksu_aviator said:
So you don't like accurate polling data?

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog
Click to expand...

Look - I am part of the professional politics business. I hire polling firms and the first rule is that they have to be reliable or else you are just throwing away your money. The word inside the biz is that Rasmussen ONLY GETS RELIABLE when it comes down to the wire. And that would be over the last week or so. Until then, they are almost always the outlier in favor of the Republicans.

The fact that they throw out the rah rah partisan cheering for the Republicans in the end and fall in line in no way changes their skewed results early in the game.
 
Everyone figured that Romney would get a bump....and polls are polls and some lean more left and some more right....so you really have to look at the source.....as a business owner I can only hope that Romney wins or my business will disappear like so many others....and we are teetering on the edge as it is....and we use to have a booming business...and what Obama is offering for 4 more years will make us close our doors for good.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom