Researcher says tech could replace nearly all human labour within 20 years and societies urgently need to prepare

[Allan]

Let's assume Adam Dorr is correct. This has enormous implications for society, particularly younger people who may find they graduate just in time to see their career path doesn't exist.

Is the solution universal basic income? After all the wealth is still being created but is monopolized by the robots instead of people.

If Adam Dorr is correct, robots and artificial intelligence will dominate the global economy within a generation and put virtually the entire human race out of a job. The social scientist doubles up as a futurist and has a stark vision of the scale, speed and unstoppability of a technological transformation that he says will replace virtually all human labour within 20 years.

Futurist Adam Dorr on how robots will take our jobs: ‘We don’t have long to get ready – it’s going to be tumultuous’

Researcher says tech could replace nearly all human labour within 20 years and societies urgently need to prepare

www.theguardian.com

 

[Individual]

How many humans will be needed when that occurs?

 

[ataraxia]

Let's assume Adam Dorr is correct. This has enormous implications for society, particularly younger people who may find they graduate just in time to see their career path doesn't exist.

Is the solution universal basic income? After all the wealth is still being created but is monopolized by the robots instead of people.

Futurist Adam Dorr on how robots will take our jobs: ‘We don’t have long to get ready – it’s going to be tumultuous’

Researcher says tech could replace nearly all human labour within 20 years and societies urgently need to prepare

www.theguardian.com

The wealth would not be monopolized by the robots, but by whoever happens to own them.

 

[Allan]

The wealth would not be monopolized by the robots, but by whoever happens to own them.

Yup.

 

[Airyaman]

The wealth would not be monopolized by the robots, but by whoever happens to own them.

If you thought there was an income gap before...

 

[Slartibartfast]

Given the current rise in fascism and just a general review of history, I expect that the human population will quickly decrease through bloody means. Once the very rich have what they want without the need for human labor, they will other those less wealthy humans and find a way to kill them.

 

[Allan]

How many humans will be needed when that occurs?

Some industries will be far less impacted. I'm thinking of trades such as construction and service industries like hospitality as well as professions such as dentistry.

But as an example in the company that I spent 35 years with I can see almost all departments eliminated. My own job wouldn't exist in the future. Those are high paying positions.

 

[ataraxia]

Some industries will be far less impacted. I'm thinking of trades such as construction and service industries like hospitality as well as professions such as dentistry.

But as an example in the company that I spent 35 years with I can see almost all departments eliminated. My own job wouldn't exist in the future. Those are high paying positions.

Professions? They may be actually more vulnerable. Already AI systems are proving to be as skilled, if not more, than human experts in reading radiology images and pathology slides. And there are AI robots now doing surgery.

Robot that watched surgery videos performs with skill of human doctor

Breakthrough training system utilizing imitation learning opens 'new frontier' in medical robotics

hub.jhu.edu

So you think this will not impact other professions like law? Finance and market analysis? Engineering? Accounting? Etc…?

 

[Loulit01]

I'll be back.

 

[Allan]

So you think this will not impact other professions like law? Finance and market analysis? Engineering? Accounting? Etc…?

Those are precisely the professions it will impact.

 

[Cameron]

Let's assume Adam Dorr is correct. This has enormous implications for society, particularly younger people who may find they graduate just in time to see their career path doesn't exist.

Is the solution universal basic income? After all the wealth is still being created but is monopolized by the robots instead of people.

Futurist Adam Dorr on how robots will take our jobs: ‘We don’t have long to get ready – it’s going to be tumultuous’

Researcher says tech could replace nearly all human labour within 20 years and societies urgently need to prepare

www.theguardian.com

Remind me again why the declining birth rate is such a huge problem?

 

[Loulit01]

Remind me again why the declining birth rate is such a huge problem?

Fewer people paying into Social Security and Medicare as our population ages.

 

[Cameron]

Fewer people paying into Social Security and Medicare as our population ages.

Fair enough, but it helps with the problem mentioned in the OP. As for Boomers and Gen Xers, I have zero qualms cutting the benefits they promised themselves without paying for.

 

[Allan]

Remind me again why the declining birth rate is such a huge problem?

Funding for government pension plans is one problem.

 

[Visbek]

Yaay, more clickbait

No, AI and robots won't replace anyone's job in 20 years. We'll be lucky to have genuine self-driving cars in 20 years.

We've been subjected to these types of hysterics for decades, and somehow people keep on working. Apparently, people keep being necessary, and keep finding things to do. What a concept.

By the way, in 2020 Dorr predicted that solar, wind and battery storage will "inevitably" disrupt the energy industry by 2030. How's that prediction going?

 

[CaughtInThe]

Why would AI/robots of the future need humans at all.

We're going the way of the Neanderthals.

 

[Allan]

By the way, in 2020 Dorr predicted that solar, wind and battery storage will "inevitably" disrupt the energy industry by 2030. How's that prediction going?

On track.

For example percentage generated by renewable energy...
Norway: 98.3%
Costa Rica: 100%
Iceland: Nearly 100%
Brazil: 89.3%
New Zealand: 87.6%
Denmark: 87.2%
Canada 67%
And so on. 40 countries now have renewables providing 75% or more of their energy.

That's pretty disruptive and it's not 2030 yet.

 

[bomberfox]

Let's assume Adam Dorr is correct. This has enormous implications for society, particularly younger people who may find they graduate just in time to see their career path doesn't exist.

Is the solution universal basic income? After all the wealth is still being created but is monopolized by the robots instead of people.

Futurist Adam Dorr on how robots will take our jobs: ‘We don’t have long to get ready – it’s going to be tumultuous’

Researcher says tech could replace nearly all human labour within 20 years and societies urgently need to prepare

www.theguardian.com

Fully automated luxury gay space communism lets goooo!

 

[reinaert]

I have that article on save, Allen. Sobering. I have been chewing on the tax and infrastructure implications most of the morning.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Some industries will be far less impacted. I'm thinking of trades such as construction and service industries like hospitality as well as professions such as dentistry.

But as an example in the company that I spent 35 years with I can see almost all departments eliminated. My own job wouldn't exist in the future. Those are high paying positions.

Trades would be different

Most buildings would be modular and likely made in a factory moved to the site and stacked together.


Repairs would likely not occur as much as replacement of equipment or sections of buildings

Dentistry employment can be reduced. We already have remote robotic surgery, dental cleaning certainly can't be more difficult than remote robotic surgery

 

[Visbek]

On track.

For example percentage generated by renewable energy...
Norway: 98.3%
Costa Rica: 100%
Iceland: Nearly 100%
Brazil: 89.3%
New Zealand: 87.6%
Denmark: 87.2%
Canada 67%
And so on. 40 countries now have renewables providing 75% or more of their energy.

That's pretty disruptive and it's not 2030 yet.

You're a bit more optimistic than I am

2030 seems far too early for disruption, mostly because:

My main concerns right now are:
- CO2 emissions are still rising
- Storage tech isn't quite there
- China and the US, the biggest emitters, are not switching fast enough; definitely won't be "disrupted" in the next 5 years
- India's emissions are growing

 

[Slavister]

Is the solution universal basic income?

I am not aware of any other solution.

 

[uptower]

Front of house jobs like wait staff, hotel attendants and call center operators will always be needed. Customers need a human to belittle and berate to make themselves feel big. Karen won't be happy unless she can make the young girl at the supermarket cry.

For menial labor, sure in a factory or a farm a certain amount of automation takes over. But in much of the world people are still cheaper than machines, sadly.

So shitty jobs will always be around.

Ironically it's big tech that are coding themselves out of employment.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

All labor robots need to be taxed at a set rate, determined by their net output.
Net output would need to be determined as a unit of measurement, the details of which is something that needs to be ironed out by comparison to human labor output, I suppose.
So I guess you could tax them at a rate that is low enough that it doesn't negate the savings netted by eliminating human labor, but high enough to offset the job losses.

Does that make sense to anyone else?

 

[Gatsby]

I strongly suspect that UBI will eventually become necessary.