from the research I've done, Rasmussen appears to be the most accurate, and is the only one i really bother keeping an eye on anymore.
does anyone dispute this or think some other service is more accurate/reliable?
3. The proliferation of “robopoll” firms like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen Reports may in and of itself be a problem, or may exacerbate the other problems. About 60 percent of the polls in our database this year were conducted by automated polling firms. Some of them have achieved decent results in recent years. Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling, for instance, have somewhat above-average track records, as measured by the accuracy of polls conducted close to Election Day. And SurveyUSA has had a considerably above-average performance.
But, automated polls are also associated with lower response rates. And some of the firms, like Rasmussen Reports, take other types of shortcuts, like conducting all of their polling in a single evening. Also, as we have mentioned, they almost never include cellphones in their samples. Therefore, it is open to question whether these firms can continue to perform on par with traditional pollsters.
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.
appreciate your opinion, but if this were true, why was Rasmussen so accurate in 2008? based on what you say, that year should have been extremely inaccurate for them, but they were actually one of the most accurate.
He wasn't. What makes you say he was?
In the 2010 Hawaii race, Rasmussen was 40 points out in their prediction for Inouye, giving him a 13 point lead, when he actually won with 53%!
HE WAS. rasmussen called it 52 obama to 46 mcain with 1% to other candidate and 1% undecided in their final poll, 2 days before the election. it ended up 52.9 obama 45.6 mcain, which would indicate obama picked up the majority of the 1% undecided voters in the last two days before the election. Given obamas early popularity, that would make sense.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
My problem with using the RCP average is that they include polls conducted by partisan firms for both sides.
from the research I've done, Rasmussen appears to be the most accurate, and is the only one i really bother keeping an eye on anymore.
does anyone dispute this or think some other service is more accurate/reliable?
Rasmussen uses a tight "likely voter" net; which is a sample of the populace that leans right-ward. Ergo, in right-leaning elections, or in low-participation elections, his model will be more accurate, whereas in high-participation or left-leaning elections, his model will be less accurate.
It's not that hard to predict the result two days before the election.
appreciate your opinion, but if this were true, why was Rasmussen so accurate in 2008? based on what you say, that year should have been extremely inaccurate for them, but they were actually one of the most accurate.
Unless of course you understand what a poll is.In the 2010 Hawaii race, Rasmussen was 40 points out in their prediction for Inouye, giving him a 13 point lead, when he actually won with 53%!
From the 2008 election, Rasmussen and Pew were rated as the top polling services. People looking at polls should focus on the date of the polls, the weighting of the polls, and the sample, i.e. likely voters vs. all and registered
http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf
HE WAS. rasmussen called it 52 obama to 46 mcain with 1% to other candidate and 1% undecided in their final poll, 2 days before the election. it ended up 52.9 obama 45.6 mcain, which would indicate obama picked up the majority of the 1% undecided voters in the last two days before the election. Given obamas early popularity, that would make sense.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
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