Races to watch in the Indiana and Ohio primaries today (1 Viewer)

[Tender Branson]

By Nathaniel Rakich
MAY 3, 2022
AT 6:00 AM

Today, the midterm election season kicks off in earnest, with Indiana and Ohio holding their 2022 primaries. From now until July, there will be a primary every single week except one.

These races may not get as much attention as the general election, but they are no less important, especially given that most states and districts will not be competitive in November. In many cases, the primaries will effectively decide who governs in 2023 and beyond. Even though the candidates in these races belong to the same party, there are often significant differences between them.

For instance, is the future of the Democratic Party on the left or in the center of the political spectrum? It will depend on whether progressives or moderates win more primaries. Similarly, will Republicans follow former President Donald Trump down a path of illiberalism, or will they return to their traditional conservative roots? It will depend on whether norm-breaking or norm-respecting candidates emerge victorious in GOP primaries.

As we do every year, we at FiveThirtyEight will be covering these primaries with election-night live blogs and articles that preview the noteworthy races — articles like this one. We already previewed Ohio’s high-profile U.S. Senate race in an article on Monday, but that still leaves several less heralded but still important races to familiarize yourself with before polls close this evening.

Indiana​

Races to watch: 1st and 9th congressional districts
Polls close: 6 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the northwest and southwest corners

Polls close so early in Indiana that we’ll start getting results from the 9th District before most of us have even sat down to dinner. Nine Republicans are squaring off for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, and the winner is all but assured of becoming the dark-red district’s next representative. Unlike many GOP primaries this year, though, the race hasn’t really been a referendum on Trumpism: The former president hasn’t endorsed in the race, and according to our research, the candidates have all avoided taking a firm position on Trump’s “Big Lie” (the idea the 2020 election was stolen).

Ohio​

Races to watch: U.S. Senate; 7th, 9th, 11th and 13th congressional districts; governor; secretary of state
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

Tuesday’s marquee race is, of course, Ohio’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate. With the retirement of establishment-aligned Sen. Rob Portman, Ohio’s junior senator is likely about to get a whole lot Trumpier, but there’s no clear front-runner in this race; read my preview from yesterday for the full lowdown.

The other big statewide race is for governor. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is fairly popular in the state, but he did anger some conservatives during his first term, first by imposing strong protective measures against the coronavirus (at least at first) and then by acknowledging the legitimacy of the 2020 election (at least at first). That prompted Trump himself to tweet in November 2020, “Who will be running for Governor of the Great State of Ohio? Will be hotly contested!”

(continues)

Races To Watch In The Indiana And Ohio Primaries

Today, the midterm election season kicks off in earnest, with Indiana and Ohio holding their 2022 primaries. From now until July, there will be a primary every …

fivethirtyeight.com

Post your predictions, voting updates and results here.

 

[Chomsky]

You might have considered making this a '[LIVE]' thread, in 'General Political Discussion', as a place to hang-out tonight.

But anyway, my interest is in seeing how J.D. Vance (Hillbilly Elegy) does in the GOP OH Senate nomination.

Vance seems to have gone 'all-in Trump', something I didn't expect from him. We'll have to see how it plays.

 

[Cameron]

Wonder if the SCOTUS abortion story will affect these primaries today.

 

[RAMOSS]

Wonder if the SCOTUS abortion story will affect these primaries today.

That's more likely to effect the november elections.

 

[Tender Branson]

A lot more Republicans voted early in-person or by mail in Ohio than Democrats did.

That is a reversal from the 2018 primaries in Ohio, when a lot more Dems voted early in-person or by mail than Republicans.

https://www.ohiosos.gov/media-center/press-releases/2022/2022-05-02/

 

[gbg3]

It looks like Ohio is wrapping up.
You mentioned Trump in the OP. It looks like every single person Trump endorsed in Ohio is likely to win. I think there were between 11 and 13 Ohio Trump endorsements.

 

[White MAGA Man]

The power of Trump's endorsements prevails again. The goal of full American nationalism continues.

 

[yankintx]

By Nathaniel Rakich
MAY 3, 2022
AT 6:00 AM

Today, the midterm election season kicks off in earnest, with Indiana and Ohio holding their 2022 primaries. From now until July, there will be a primary every single week except one.

These races may not get as much attention as the general election, but they are no less important, especially given that most states and districts will not be competitive in November. In many cases, the primaries will effectively decide who governs in 2023 and beyond. Even though the candidates in these races belong to the same party, there are often significant differences between them.

For instance, is the future of the Democratic Party on the left or in the center of the political spectrum? It will depend on whether progressives or moderates win more primaries. Similarly, will Republicans follow former President Donald Trump down a path of illiberalism, or will they return to their traditional conservative roots? It will depend on whether norm-breaking or norm-respecting candidates emerge victorious in GOP primaries.

As we do every year, we at FiveThirtyEight will be covering these primaries with election-night live blogs and articles that preview the noteworthy races — articles like this one. We already previewed Ohio’s high-profile U.S. Senate race in an article on Monday, but that still leaves several less heralded but still important races to familiarize yourself with before polls close this evening.

Indiana​

Races to watch: 1st and 9th congressional districts
Polls close: 6 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the northwest and southwest corners

Polls close so early in Indiana that we’ll start getting results from the 9th District before most of us have even sat down to dinner. Nine Republicans are squaring off for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, and the winner is all but assured of becoming the dark-red district’s next representative. Unlike many GOP primaries this year, though, the race hasn’t really been a referendum on Trumpism: The former president hasn’t endorsed in the race, and according to our research, the candidates have all avoided taking a firm position on Trump’s “Big Lie” (the idea the 2020 election was stolen).

Ohio​

Races to watch: U.S. Senate; 7th, 9th, 11th and 13th congressional districts; governor; secretary of state
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern

Tuesday’s marquee race is, of course, Ohio’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate. With the retirement of establishment-aligned Sen. Rob Portman, Ohio’s junior senator is likely about to get a whole lot Trumpier, but there’s no clear front-runner in this race; read my preview from yesterday for the full lowdown.

The other big statewide race is for governor. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is fairly popular in the state, but he did anger some conservatives during his first term, first by imposing strong protective measures against the coronavirus (at least at first) and then by acknowledging the legitimacy of the 2020 election (at least at first). That prompted Trump himself to tweet in November 2020, “Who will be running for Governor of the Great State of Ohio? Will be hotly contested!”

(continues)

Races To Watch In The Indiana And Ohio Primaries

Today, the midterm election season kicks off in earnest, with Indiana and Ohio holding their 2022 primaries. From now until July, there will be a primary every …

fivethirtyeight.com

Post your predictions, voting updates and results here.

With the recent SC looming decision on abortion, i think we can throw out most predictions for election day.

Its a game changer, and with the nationwide protest, it's obvious the GOP is going to pay in November, how much who knows.

 

[Tender Branson]

The polls predicting the major races were extremely accurate this time.

If you average the 3 final polls from Trafalgar, Emerson and Fabrizio Lee (published in Breitbart), you get the 8% margin that Vance won by.

What's really bad news: Republican turnout in their primaries was over 1 million, Democratic turnout just half a million. This was usually much closer in primaries before or Democrats even had higher primary turnout.

This hints to a big Republican wave in November, at least in Ohio. But probably elsewhere too.

 

[vesper]

It looks like Ohio is wrapping up.
You mentioned Trump in the OP. It looks like every single person Trump endorsed in Ohio is likely to win. I think there were between 11 and 13 Ohio Trump endorsements.

There were a lot of people in the MSM declared that this primary was all about Trump and the percentage of support Trump had on Republican voters and Independents who chose in the primary to support the Republican candidates in the election in Nov. 2022. Apparently his support has not waned. What I found rather interesting is DeWine won a second term as governor and the Ohio Republican party endorsed him. The two Republicans that challenged him if you add the number of votes they both received together, would be enough to have enough to unseat DeWine. That tells me even within the Republican party, there's a good number of Republicans including Independents who are not supporters of DeWine.

 

[gbg3]

I just read this morning about a race Pence's older brother was in (and won). That was one of several where Trump chose to endorse - and did endorse Pence's brother.
This one was in Indiana where those Trump endorsed also did well.

 

[Callen]

I'm conflicted. As much as would like to see Trump's influence diminish, I also think Trumpian candidates are more vulnerable in the actual elections, especially in swing states and districts. The turnout doesn't c8ncern me. The GOP primary was much more contentious than the Democratic primary. Ryan was pretty much a shoe whereas the vote on the GOP side was split 5 ways. I think Ryan now has an actual shot at the Senate seat.

 

[Lovebug]

With the recent SC looming decision on abortion, i think we can throw out most predictions for election day.

Its a game changer, and with the nationwide protest, it's obvious the GOP is going to pay in November, how much who knows.

This. Once people realize the decision's possible impact on their everyday lives, they might, although secretly, choose a better option.

 

[vesper]

I just read this morning about a race Pence's older brother was in (and won). That was one of several where Trump chose to endorse - and did endorse Pence's brother.
This one was in Indiana where those Trump endorsed also did well.

That's interesting. Looking forward to the rest of the primaries to see how many of the candidates Trump endorsed win. I am hoping to find out how many Independents and registered Democrats voted for the Trump endorsed candidate too.

 

[Tender Branson]

I'm conflicted. As much as would like to see Trump's influence diminish, I also think Trumpian candidates are more vulnerable in the actual elections, especially in swing states and districts. The turnout doesn't c8ncern me. The GOP primary was much more contentious than the Democratic primary. Ryan was pretty much a shoe whereas the vote on the GOP side was split 5 ways. I think Ryan now has an actual shot at the Senate seat.

Hahaha, no.

Those times are long gone, Ryan even did badly already in his own district in the 2020 election.

Vance probably bests him by 10 points, if not 15 points.

The next polls of the general election will be interesting.

 

[Callen]

Hahaha, no.

Those times are long gone, Ryan even did badly already in his own district in the 2020 election.

Vance probably bests him by 10 points, if not 15 points.

The next polls of the general election will be interesting.

Maybe the day before yesterday.....but things changed yesterday although I don't think he is a shoe in by a long shot....but at least now I think he has a shot.

 

[Tender Branson]

Maybe the day before yesterday.....but things changed yesterday although I don't think he is a shoe in by a long shot....but at least now I think he has a shot.

I think the anti-president party sentiment in a new US president's 1st midterm will outweigh the abortion issue.

The last general election polls between Vance/Ryan are 1 year old !

One by a British pollster (no joke), and one by PPP - a Democratic pollster.

I am looking forward to Emerson College polls on the general election and Trafalgar, because the two had very good primary polls yesterday.

 

[Callen]

I think the anti-president party sentiment in a new US president's 1st midterm will outweigh the abortion issue.

Maybe, it certainly the expected outcome but rarely, at least in my recollection, does such a hot button issue interject itself. It likely won't matter much at a district level in States like Ohio but I think it may matter more at a State level if people are looking for federal protections. We'll see.....maybe it matters, maybe it won't.....but it sure will be interesting to watch play out.

 

[Tender Branson]

The next primaries btw will be Nebraska and West Virginia on Tuesday.

Both are die-hard R states in November, but the Nebraska R governor there is term-limited and a bunch of candidates are running there.

And in WV, a congressional district has been eliminated because WV is a drug-infested coal hellhole that likes to dwell in its misery and vote Trump and R and therefore loses population on masse.

2 Republican incumbents are therefore running for the same congressional seat ...

 

[gbg3]

Hahaha, no.

Those times are long gone, Ryan even did badly already in his own district in the 2020 election.

Vance probably bests him by 10 points, if not 15 points.

The next polls of the general election will be interesting.

I agree. Here is how predicit sees that race today - and it hasn't changed much in 90 days. The SCOTUS leak and the primary concluding aren't budging it much at all.

 

[gbg3]

I think the anti-president party sentiment in a new US president's 1st midterm will outweigh the abortion issue.

The last general election polls between Vance/Ryan are 1 year old !

One by a British pollster (no joke), and one by PPP - a Democratic pollster.

I am looking forward to Emerson College polls on the general election and Trafalgar, because the two had very good primary polls yesterday.

I think Trafalgar is nearly always very good with state contests. It doesn't surprise me they had good primary polls for yesterday's primaries.

 

[Tender Branson]

The next primaries btw will be Nebraska and West Virginia on Tuesday.

Both are die-hard R states in November, but the Nebraska R governor there is term-limited and a bunch of candidates are running there.

And in WV, a congressional district has been eliminated because WV is a drug-infested coal hellhole that likes to dwell in its misery and vote Trump and R and therefore loses population on masse.

2 Republican incumbents are therefore running for the same congressional seat ...

Trump's streak with successful endorsements will likely end in Nebraska and Georgia soon, because his endorsed guy for Governor in Nebraska - Herbster - could lose on Tuesday.

Not necessarily, it's still close in the polling, but Pillen is surging fast.

On the other hand, Trump-endorsed Mooney will win in WV.

But in Georgia, Trump-endorsed Perdue is trailing by 30 points. This will almost definitely be a defeat for Trump, unless a miracle happens for Perdue in the next few weeks.

 

[EnigmaO01]

I'm from Indiana and although I am not a democrat or republican, since I had to declare a party, and there is no option for independent, I declared democrat. This left me very few options, as there were very few dems on the ballot. Most republicans run uncontested. It's virtually impossible to win as a Dem here anymore in rural areas so no one democrat runs. (I voted early).

 

[Tender Branson]

I'm from Indiana and although I am not a democrat or republican, since I had to declare a party, and there is no option for independent, I declared democrat. This left me very few options, as there were very few dems on the ballot. Most republicans run uncontested. It's virtually impossible to win as a Dem here anymore in rural areas so no one democrat runs. (I voted early).

Yeah, it's getting odder and odder.

Due to heavy gerrymandering of the House districts, I have read that only 30-40 (!) of the 435 House seats up for election in November will be competitive.

That is not even 10% of all districts !

That means 90% of Americans who vote for US House have no real impact on the outcome in November, unless they vote monumentally different than in previous years and flip for example a R+10 district to a D+1 district or something (or the other way around).

And even for US Senate, only 10 of 35 races are going to be competitive and 10 of 36 governor races ...