Putin's options

[Kreton]

What do you see as Putins best option going forward? He cannot change what has been done. I am not asking what you think he should do morally. Putin is in the position he is in. He created it. Personally I don't think he sees a way out of this.

He could continue and possibly see further sanctions if there are any left. He will eventually take over. Of that there is no question. But what does he gain? Can he actually win? So continuing only makes it worse.

He could stop the invasion and bring his troops home. This likely means admitting defeat, listening to Zelensky publicly gloat and receive praise. This would cripple him at home as those who support this invasion would see him as a failure, and Russians and Russian history is not kind to failures. Even if he does, relationships are broken and sanctions are in place.

Escalate.

 

[NWRatCon]

He will stay the current course, lose more troops, destroy much of Ukraine on the way, kill thousands of civilians, eventually "gain control" of Kyiv, declare victory, and leave. I don't see a basis for easing sanctions as long as Putin is in power.

 

[upsideguy]

He will stay the current course, lose more troops, destroy much of Ukraine on the way, kill thousands of civilians, eventually "gain control" of Kyiv, declare victory, and leave. I don't see a basis for easing sanctions as long as Putin is in power.

Putin has painted himself into a corner. He has no choice but to double down in his bad decision.

 

[jpevans]

I assume that like Drumpf he can’t admit to a mistake. He’ll kill a lot of civilians take the capital & be plagued with a strong resistance.
I don’t have a clew how it ends.

 

[Kreton]

He will stay the current course, lose more troops, destroy much of Ukraine on the way, kill thousands of civilians, eventually "gain control" of Kyiv, declare victory, and leave. I don't see a basis for easing sanctions as long as Putin is in power.

Does that really seem like a "win" to him? I'm curious what does this victory do for him at home?

 

[Kreton]

I assume that like Drumpf he can’t admit to a mistake. He’ll kill a lot of civilians take the capital & be plagued with a strong resistance.
I don’t have a clew how it ends.

That is a trait too many share.

 

[reinaert]

Autodefenestration?

 

[jpevans]

Does that really seem like a "win" to him? I'm curious what does this victory do for him at home?

No good I’m thinking.

 

[The Mark]

Does that really seem like a "win" to him? I'm curious what does this victory do for him at home?

I don't know if state propaganda works as well as it did in the USSR, but maybe whoever he has on that can spin it.

 

[BirdinHand]

No clue.

I hope someone from somewhere is creeping close enough to take him out.

 

[The Mark]

No clue.

I hope someone from somewhere is creeping close enough to take him out.

But he can't be the only person who wants this, otherwise he'd already be out, I think.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

What do you see as Putins best option going forward? He cannot change what has been done. I am not asking what you think he should do morally. Putin is in the position he is in. He created it. Personally I don't think he sees a way out of this.

He could continue and possibly see further sanctions if there are any left. He will eventually take over. Of that there is no question. But what does he gain? Can he actually win? So continuing only makes it worse.

He could stop the invasion and bring his troops home. This likely means admitting defeat, listening to Zelensky publicly gloat and receive praise. This would cripple him at home as those who support this invasion would see him as a failure, and Russians and Russian history is not kind to failures. Even if he does, relationships are broken and sanctions are in place.

Escalate.

He's gonna get removed.

 

[Kreton]

He's gonna get removed.

I'm all for that but I don't see it happening. What makes you think that is on the table?

 

[The Mark]

I'm all for that but I don't see it happening. What makes you think that is on the table?

I mean, for leaders of nations it's always on the table, and especially so if they're in the position Russia currently is.

The question is, how viable that threat (from Putin's perspective) is.

I'm actually wondering who's protecting him, and if they're having second thoughts.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

I'm all for that but I don't see it happening. What makes you think that is on the table?

He's losing the Oligarchs.

 

[Kreton]

I mean, for leaders of nations it's always on the table, and especially so if they're in the position Russia currently is.

The question is, how viable that threat (from Putin's perspective) is.

I'm actually wondering who's protecting him, and if they're having second thoughts.

I could be mistaken but I believe he puts loyalists in the positions to support him. I don't think he allows for those who don't blindly support him.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Escalate, apparently.

Russia takes aim at urban areas; Biden vows Putin will 'pay'

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian forces escalated their attacks on crowded urban areas Tuesday in what Ukraine’s leader called a blatant campaign of terror, while U.S. President Joe Biden vowed to make his Russian counterpart “pay a price” for the invasion.

apnews.com

He's a ****ing war criminal at this point. There is no glossing over this.

 

[multivita-man]

If I were Putin, I'd probably give my army 3-4 days to take Ukraine's two largest cities, which is probably not realistic because even if you take control of the cities militarily that doesn't mean you have enough time to bring resistance to a screeching halt. This could turn into a weeks-long street fight, with soldiers going from house to house. With some of the absolute most severe global sanctions ever imposed on a modern major economy, I don't know if Putin has time for this.

But Putin has to go back with something. I'm not Putin, but if I were him, maybe the middle ground or face-saving move absent of Ukraine agreeing to remain neutral (not likely now with the fast-track EU application in progress), the next best option is to end the wider invasion but keep the territory that Russia now has in Crimea and the Donbas in Russian hands. He could go back to his people and make up a lie - tell them that he needed to invade all of Ukraine in order to protect pro-Russian republics and that his mission has been accomplished.

This would of course depend on Ukraine and NATO/EU/US nations accepting this kind of agreement. Many would not, but some might - and that's why such a move might actually work out for him. Right now, most of the world - even some Russia-friendly countries - are united against him in opposition to the all-out invasion. But they were not opposed to his police action and occupation of Crimea or the Donbas. In fact they did little to stop it, and I'm guessing some countries would be willing to accept his continued presence in parts of Ukraine as what they would perceive to be an off-ramp away from a wider war. The problem is, Putin's regime would survive and live to see another day, and I'm not sure the world should give him that opportunity.

 

[Ishm]

I think Putin made a major miscalculation. He didn't anticipate the world rallying so strongly behind the Ukraine when they have, in his opinion, nothing to gain. He made the mistake of thinking that everyone else thinks like he does.

Now add in pictures of dead children, bombed apartments etc. Then add some 'heroic' Ukranian resistance. Then add plentiful Russian soldiers going home in body bags. Top all that off with a collapsing economy caused by prosecuting a war that many Russians will realise didn't need to happen.

The scary thing is that Putin, in his mind, may think his only way out from a horrible mistake is to win a quick and decisive victory. 10's of 1000's of Ukrainians murdered so he can tell the Russian public what a great leader he is etc. Hence the Nukes talk to deter the west from interfering once the real massacres start. The open question in todays connected world is how much of the truth can he hide from his own people.

 

[HIP56948]

Fake a heart attack. Ok..A real one.

 

[jpevans]

No clue.

I hope someone from somewhere is creeping close enough to take him out.

It's usually Peacemakers who are assassinated.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Every "option" for Putin comes with a series of consequences, and there is no real offramp at this point either.

What we are seeing so far is continued invasion, very little suggesting Putin is done with his cold war temper tantrum.

 

[Indydave]

as my old grandma used to say he has 'sht in is own nest'.....for me the question from the git go has been why.....Russia does not need the Ukraine any more than China needs Taiwan.....if it's for national pride or Putin's interpretation of what Russian national pride should be then it's the worst mistake he could possibly have made.....the Russian people will start to feel the ire of the rest of the world when the sanctions curtail their lives.....this could threaten Putin's power far worse than his imaginary ideas about the Ukraine.....the people know that today's world is completely different than 20 or even 10 years ago......thanks to the new freedom of instant communication......he is murdering innocent people.....surely this world has not gone so mad as to let him get away with it

 

[Cardinal]

No clue.

I hope someone from somewhere is creeping close enough to take him out.

It’s not an accident that he has meetings at 100 ft tables. That said, I have to wonder how he can control his food anywhere so strongly.