... on fiscal issues. And this will be a direct consequence of this election.
To be sure, it isn't going to happen overnight. They'll probably put up a Movement Conservative in 2020, and may even win with one through a combination of voter fatigue and a cyclical recession.
But the long term trajectory is clear. William Jennings Bryan lost in 1896 (and 1900 and 1904), and the Democratic Party ran economically conservative candidates a few times thereafter (Alton Brooks Parker, John Davis, James Cox), but once the Democratic Party had settled on the white underclass for its base, the inevitable result was to drag the Democratic Party to the left on matters of economic egalitarianism and government intervention in the economy.
The same process will occur with the Republican Party, though my guess is that it'll be sold less as a progressive movement and more as a conservation of previous developments ("we must keep Social Security and Medicare solvent", "we must expand Affirmative Action to encompass low-income whites", etc.).
The Republican base isn't just far more socially conservative than the establishment - it's also far more economically liberal, in the New Deal sense of the word. That's what happens when you pander to the lumpenproletariat.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party will become increasingly "conservative", not in the Movement Conservative sense of the term but in its preferences for established economic interests. That doesn't mean they're suddenly going to embrace Reaganoid economics; much of the emerging sectors of the modern economy - IT above all - prefers a more interventionist government. But that intervention will be directed towards increasingly less egalitarian ends and more towards the preservation of economic growth. This will run parallel to the gentrification of middle-class minorities, who will assimilate just as previous ethnic minority groups have.
The political battles of the future will be fought between nationalist populists and technocratic capitalists. Libertarians, Bernie Bros, and the Religious Right will be increasingly driven into the margins.
I think the religious right has lost quite a lot of their power in the Republican Party they once had, say under Reagan and the nation as a whole. As this nation becomes less religious their power wanes. Political parties evolve and adjust to existing situations and circumstance and what you stated may come to pass or not. Since Reagan the GOP has talked fiscal responsibility, balance budget amendment etc. All the while driving the national debt sky high. Not to be out done, the Democrats have driven it even higher and at a faster rate. The exception was Bill Clinton. At least the Democrats were honest about not being fiscal responsible for the most part.
I haven't the faintest idea about how or where both parties will be in thirty or forty years. Growing up in the 1950's, I would have never guessed the Democratic Party would become the peace dove party. Back then the Democrats were the foreign interventionist, the war hawks, Republican Party still contained isolationist. For all his talk of peace and disengagement, Obama has become as much a war hawk, foreign interventionist as both Bush's. Strange if one looks back on Reagan, whom everyone thought was a war hawk, what did he get us involved in? Grenada and central America with the contras.
It is possible you're correct, but what happens to the two parties will be how they adjust to situations as they arise. The polarization of the two major parties today is libel to continue on into the near future. Whatever one party is for, the other against. I just hope that at sometime both major parties stop putting their party first over country. We shall see, but I think that is the main reason independents have risen from 18% of the total electorate under Eisenhower, 30% under Reagan thru Bush the younger to 42% today. Both parties putting their fortunes ahead of this nation and most Americans are becoming fed up with it.
If Reagan were around today they would call him a RINO.
... on fiscal issues. And this will be a direct consequence of this election.
To be sure, it isn't going to happen overnight. They'll probably put up a Movement Conservative in 2020, and may even win with one through a combination of voter fatigue and a cyclical recession.
But the long term trajectory is clear. William Jennings Bryan lost in 1896 (and 1900 and 1904), and the Democratic Party ran economically conservative candidates a few times thereafter (Alton Brooks Parker, John Davis, James Cox), but once the Democratic Party had settled on the white underclass for its base, the inevitable result was to drag the Democratic Party to the left on matters of economic egalitarianism and government intervention in the economy.
The same process will occur with the Republican Party, though my guess is that it'll be sold less as a progressive movement and more as a conservation of previous developments ("we must keep Social Security and Medicare solvent", "we must expand Affirmative Action to encompass low-income whites", etc.).
The Republican base isn't just far more socially conservative than the establishment - it's also far more economically liberal, in the New Deal sense of the word. That's what happens when you pander to the lumpenproletariat.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party will become increasingly "conservative", not in the Movement Conservative sense of the term but in its preferences for established economic interests. That doesn't mean they're suddenly going to embrace Reaganoid economics; much of the emerging sectors of the modern economy - IT above all - prefers a more interventionist government. But that intervention will be directed towards increasingly less egalitarian ends and more towards the preservation of economic growth. This will run parallel to the gentrification of middle-class minorities, who will assimilate just as previous ethnic minority groups have.
The political battles of the future will be fought between nationalist populists and technocratic capitalists. Libertarians, Bernie Bros, and the Religious Right will be increasingly driven into the margins.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?