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New polls show race virtually unchanged after conventions
Lets put it this way: Neither candidate gained due to the convention. Biden still has about a 7% advantage in the national popular vote. He still has about 212 electoral college votes in the bag, and leads in most of the swing states.
Biden leads in the following swing states:
Wisconsin (10) - 4%
Michigan (16) - 3%
Ohio (18) - 2%
Penn (20) - 4%
Florida (29) - 3%. Trump hasn't won a single poll since March.
NH (4) - 10%
Arizona (11) & Minnesota (10) - 5%
Nevada (6) - Last poll taken was in January, and he had an 8% lead.
North Carolina (15) - 1%
That's 10 out of the 14 swing states mentioned on RCP, which is a right-leaning site.
Trump is leading in Texas (4%), Missouri (8%), Iowa (2%), and Georgia (1%).
With only 58 electoral college votes to victory, Biden on path to get 352 electoral college votes.
If he just wins Florida, Ohio and Arizona, he's got 270. If he wins Penn and Texas, he's got 270.
Do you think Trump can make a comeback? He hasn't really moved anywhere. His baby step convention bounce is gone.
New polls show race virtually unchanged after conventions
Lets put it this way: Neither candidate gained due to the convention. Biden still has about a 7% advantage in the national popular vote. He still has about 212 electoral college votes in the bag, and leads in most of the swing states.
Biden leads in the following swing states:
Wisconsin (10) - 4%
Michigan (16) - 3%
Ohio (18) - 2%
Penn (20) - 4%
Florida (29) - 3%. Trump hasn't won a single poll since March.
NH (4) - 10%
Arizona (11) & Minnesota (10) - 5%
Nevada (6) - Last poll taken was in January, and he had an 8% lead.
North Carolina (15) - 1%
That's 10 out of the 14 swing states mentioned on RCP, which is a right-leaning site.
Trump is leading in Texas (4%), Missouri (8%), Iowa (2%), and Georgia (1%).
With only 58 electoral college votes to victory, Biden on path to get 352 electoral college votes.
If he just wins Florida, Ohio and Arizona, he's got 270. If he wins Penn and Texas, he's got 270.
Do you think Trump can make a comeback? He hasn't really moved anywhere. His baby step convention bounce is gone.
You can’t use day to day polling to look for trends, a lot of the swing in the averages depends on which firms release polls when.
Trump got a solid bounce from the RNC with about 5 or 6 firms, and it’s way too early to make a conclusion that he lost the bounce, you’d have to wait until these firms release their next numbers.
To me, it looks like a similar situation to what we had in September four years ago.
Fox News had Biden up by 9 in AZ. And, Kelly up by 17.
Yep. It's looking pretty dire for Trump. The public is becoming more and more tired of Trump's lack of leadership and professionalism.
Yeah, but Trump will cheat, guaranteed.
There's no evidence he got any bounce. Biden is leading in 10 out of the 15 swing states, and he only needs about 58 more electoral college votes to win the election.
I saw small bounces for both men, with a little more for Trump. Both seem to have come back down, with just a little lingering for Trump.
It completely depends on the source you’re using. But out of all polls released this week, more polls show Trump gaining compared to their previous poll, than polls that show Trump slipping compared to their previous poll.
In terms of the swing state polling, it’s the exact same situation we had with Hillary, and most polls show the race tightening.
Which polls were you looking at?
holding my breath
praying too
Mostly the aggregators: 538/RCPWhich polls were you looking at?
I saw small bounces for both men, with a little more for Trump. Both seem to have come back down, with just a little lingering for Trump.
Interesting. I was playing around with this stuff observationally, and Nates numbers are where I more or less am: 3-4 pts puts Biden at break even. 5-6 pretty much guarantees a win.Nate Silver released this on Twitter. I don't have the math to understand how he arrived at these numbers, but take it for whatever it's worth. The "points" refer to the national lead over Trump. In my opinion, by election day Biden's lead will narrow to about 4.5 points.
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632
Interesting. I was playing around with this stuff observationally, and Nates numbers are where I more or less am: 3-4 pts puts Biden at break even. 5-6 pretty much guarantees a win.
But we can't forget not all votes cast are going to get tabulated. Mail-ins have a huge spoil rate, as high as 15-20%!
I'm pretty comfortable with the steadiness of the race. The bases are locked-in, and seemingly immovable. There's no name-brand Indie candidate, and only 5% undecided! This is a very stable race. And totally different than HRC '16. I even suspect the pollsters got better at figuring-out the 'Trump effect', where it's thought Trump voters are under-represented due their reticence to respond to MSM pollsters.Silver says that after the convention a lead typically hardens. This obviously does not factor in shennanigans. And if there's one thing we can look forward to, it's a whole lot of shennanigans.
I'm pretty comfortable with the steadiness of the race. The bases are locked-in, and seemingly immovable. There's no name-brand Indie candidate, and only 5% undecided! This is a very stable race. And totally different than HRC '16. I even suspect the pollsters got better at figuring-out the 'Trump effect', where it's thought Trump voters are under-represented due their reticence to respond to MSM pollsters.
But it's, as you say, the 'shenanigans' that are my biggest concern. Otherwise, I'm good enough - for now.
Don't remember. I seem to recall it from the recent East Coast election that had problems (NY? NJ?). The one that took weeks, and Trump was calling to re-do? But you know what? I'm going to retract it. The number is higher than in-person ballots, but I'm not going to try to quantify it.98% obviously sounds nice, but if I told you that for every 100 times you went to the supermarket, 2 of those trips would result in a car wreck, I'm guessing you'd make a lot more use of Amazon Fresh than you do now.
Just out of curiosity, where are you getting the spoil rate from?
Will get to it when I can. Thx.I read this Vox article in full last night. The piece is equal parts terrifying and comforting, as maybe you'll see why after you read it. It really is worth the 10-15 minutes.
The eerie stability of Donald Trump’s approval rating, explained - Vox
Here's a pop quiz, just to see wow alike you and I are: which sentence etched itself into your brain?
Will get to it when I can. Thx.
Yep. Atlantic, The Economist, Scientific American, have great articles - when you desire & are are willing to work through them. High effort, but high reward!Thanks.
Take your time. Vox and Atlantic articles are meant to be read with patience, when the day is over and a glass of sherry by your side, not to be hurried through breathlessly.
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