Post-Convention Analysis: Biden maintains solid lead over Trump.

[BrotherFease]

New polls show race virtually unchanged after conventions

Lets put it this way: Neither candidate gained due to the convention. Biden still has about a 7% advantage in the national popular vote. He still has about 212 electoral college votes in the bag, and leads in most of the swing states.

Biden leads in the following swing states:

Wisconsin (10) - 4%
Michigan (16) - 3%
Ohio (18) - 2%
Penn (20) - 4%
Florida (29) - 3%. Trump hasn't won a single poll since March.
NH (4) - 10%
Arizona (11) & Minnesota (10) - 5%
Nevada (6) - Last poll taken was in January, and he had an 8% lead.
North Carolina (15) - 1%

That's 10 out of the 14 swing states mentioned on RCP, which is a right-leaning site.

Trump is leading in Texas (4%), Missouri (8%), Iowa (2%), and Georgia (1%).

With only 58 electoral college votes to victory, Biden on path to get 352 electoral college votes.

If he just wins Florida, Ohio and Arizona, he's got 270. If he wins Penn and Texas, he's got 270.

Do you think Trump can make a comeback? He hasn't really moved anywhere. His baby step convention bounce is gone.

 

[noonereal]

holding my breath


praying too

 

[ReubenSherr]

New polls show race virtually unchanged after conventions

Lets put it this way: Neither candidate gained due to the convention. Biden still has about a 7% advantage in the national popular vote. He still has about 212 electoral college votes in the bag, and leads in most of the swing states.

Biden leads in the following swing states:

Wisconsin (10) - 4%
Michigan (16) - 3%
Ohio (18) - 2%
Penn (20) - 4%
Florida (29) - 3%. Trump hasn't won a single poll since March.
NH (4) - 10%
Arizona (11) & Minnesota (10) - 5%
Nevada (6) - Last poll taken was in January, and he had an 8% lead.
North Carolina (15) - 1%

That's 10 out of the 14 swing states mentioned on RCP, which is a right-leaning site.

Trump is leading in Texas (4%), Missouri (8%), Iowa (2%), and Georgia (1%).

With only 58 electoral college votes to victory, Biden on path to get 352 electoral college votes.

If he just wins Florida, Ohio and Arizona, he's got 270. If he wins Penn and Texas, he's got 270.

Do you think Trump can make a comeback? He hasn't really moved anywhere. His baby step convention bounce is gone.

You can’t use day to day polling to look for trends, a lot of the swing in the averages depends on which firms release polls when. When Quinnipiac is released, Biden gets a boost. When Emerson is released, Trump gets a boost.

Trump got a solid bounce from the RNC with about 5 or 6 firms, and it’s way too early to make a conclusion that he lost the bounce, you’d have to wait until these firms release their next numbers.

To me, it looks like a similar situation to what we had in September four years ago.

 

[beefheart]

New polls show race virtually unchanged after conventions

Lets put it this way: Neither candidate gained due to the convention. Biden still has about a 7% advantage in the national popular vote. He still has about 212 electoral college votes in the bag, and leads in most of the swing states.

Biden leads in the following swing states:

Wisconsin (10) - 4%
Michigan (16) - 3%
Ohio (18) - 2%
Penn (20) - 4%
Florida (29) - 3%. Trump hasn't won a single poll since March.
NH (4) - 10%
Arizona (11) & Minnesota (10) - 5%
Nevada (6) - Last poll taken was in January, and he had an 8% lead.
North Carolina (15) - 1%

That's 10 out of the 14 swing states mentioned on RCP, which is a right-leaning site.

Trump is leading in Texas (4%), Missouri (8%), Iowa (2%), and Georgia (1%).

With only 58 electoral college votes to victory, Biden on path to get 352 electoral college votes.

If he just wins Florida, Ohio and Arizona, he's got 270. If he wins Penn and Texas, he's got 270.

Do you think Trump can make a comeback? He hasn't really moved anywhere. His baby step convention bounce is gone.

Fox News had Biden up by 9 in AZ. And, Kelly up by 17.

 

[BrotherFease]

You can’t use day to day polling to look for trends, a lot of the swing in the averages depends on which firms release polls when.

Trump got a solid bounce from the RNC with about 5 or 6 firms, and it’s way too early to make a conclusion that he lost the bounce, you’d have to wait until these firms release their next numbers.

To me, it looks like a similar situation to what we had in September four years ago.

There's no evidence he got any bounce. Biden is leading in 10 out of the 15 swing states, and he only needs about 58 more electoral college votes to win the election.

The debates will be crucial for Trump. He needs to convince the public he's been doing a positive job. So far, he hasn't done that.

 

[BrotherFease]

Fox News had Biden up by 9 in AZ. And, Kelly up by 17.

Yep. It's looking pretty dire for Trump. The public is becoming more and more tired of Trump's lack of leadership and professionalism.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Maybe if Trump wasn't such a useless, miserable failure.

 

[beefheart]

Yep. It's looking pretty dire for Trump. The public is becoming more and more tired of Trump's lack of leadership and professionalism.

Yeah, but Trump will cheat, guaranteed.

 

[BrotherFease]

Yeah, but Trump will cheat, guaranteed.

He does want people to vote twice in North Carolina.

 

[ReubenSherr]

There's no evidence he got any bounce. Biden is leading in 10 out of the 15 swing states, and he only needs about 58 more electoral college votes to win the election.

It completely depends on the source you’re using. But out of all polls released this week, more polls show Trump gaining compared to their previous poll, than polls that show Trump slipping compared to their previous poll.

In terms of the swing state polling, it’s the exact same situation we had with Hillary, and most polls show the race tightening.

 

[Chomsky]

I saw small bounces for both men, with a little more for Trump. Both seem to have come back down, with just a little lingering for Trump.

 

[Patriotic Voter]

I saw small bounces for both men, with a little more for Trump. Both seem to have come back down, with just a little lingering for Trump.

Which polls were you looking at?

 

[BrotherFease]

It completely depends on the source you’re using. But out of all polls released this week, more polls show Trump gaining compared to their previous poll, than polls that show Trump slipping compared to their previous poll.

In terms of the swing state polling, it’s the exact same situation we had with Hillary, and most polls show the race tightening.

Which source are you using?

How is the race tightening? Biden is leading in 10 out of 14 swing states and already has about a 100 electoral college lead.

You can't really compare it to 2016. Trump was the outsider and the challenger party. This time around, he's the establishment and the incumbent party. More over, Biden has better favorability numbers than Hilary Clinton.

Also, Trump's mental state is being called in question. His interviews have been rambling and incoherent.

 

[BrotherFease]

Which polls were you looking at?

I am wondering too. Statistically, Biden is leading in 10 out of 14 swing states.

 

[Cardinal]

holding my breath


praying too

Nate Silver released this on Twitter. I don't have the math to understand how he arrived at these numbers, but take it for whatever it's worth. The "points" refer to the national lead over Trump. In my opinion, by election day Biden's lead will narrow to about 4.5 points.

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

 

[Chomsky]

Which polls were you looking at?

Mostly the aggregators: 538/RCP

 

[Cardinal]

I saw small bounces for both men, with a little more for Trump. Both seem to have come back down, with just a little lingering for Trump.

Silver says that after the convention a lead typically hardens. This obviously does not factor in shennanigans. And if there's one thing we can look forward to, it's a whole lot of shennanigans.

 

[Chomsky]

Nate Silver released this on Twitter. I don't have the math to understand how he arrived at these numbers, but take it for whatever it's worth. The "points" refer to the national lead over Trump. In my opinion, by election day Biden's lead will narrow to about 4.5 points.

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

Interesting. I was playing around with this stuff observationally, and Nates numbers are where I more or less am: 3-4 pts puts Biden at break even. 5-6 pretty much guarantees a win.

But we can't forget not all votes cast are going to get tabulated. Mail-ins have a huge spoil rate, as high as 15-20%!

 

[Cardinal]

Interesting. I was playing around with this stuff observationally, and Nates numbers are where I more or less am: 3-4 pts puts Biden at break even. 5-6 pretty much guarantees a win.

But we can't forget not all votes cast are going to get tabulated. Mail-ins have a huge spoil rate, as high as 15-20%!

98% obviously sounds nice, but if I told you that for every 100 times you went to the supermarket, 2 of those trips would result in a car wreck, I'm guessing you'd make a lot more use of Amazon Fresh than you do now.

Just out of curiosity, where are you getting the spoil rate from?

 

[Chomsky]

Silver says that after the convention a lead typically hardens. This obviously does not factor in shennanigans. And if there's one thing we can look forward to, it's a whole lot of shennanigans.

I'm pretty comfortable with the steadiness of the race. The bases are locked-in, and seemingly immovable. There's no name-brand Indie candidate, and only 5% undecided! This is a very stable race. And totally different than HRC '16. I even suspect the pollsters got better at figuring-out the 'Trump effect', where it's thought Trump voters are under-represented due their reticence to respond to MSM pollsters.

But it's, as you say, the 'shenanigans' that are my biggest concern. Otherwise, I'm good enough - for now.

 

[Cardinal]

I'm pretty comfortable with the steadiness of the race. The bases are locked-in, and seemingly immovable. There's no name-brand Indie candidate, and only 5% undecided! This is a very stable race. And totally different than HRC '16. I even suspect the pollsters got better at figuring-out the 'Trump effect', where it's thought Trump voters are under-represented due their reticence to respond to MSM pollsters.

But it's, as you say, the 'shenanigans' that are my biggest concern. Otherwise, I'm good enough - for now.

I read this Vox article in full last night. The piece is equal parts terrifying and comforting, as maybe you'll see why after you read it. It really is worth the 10-15 minutes.

The eerie stability of Donald Trump’s approval rating, explained - Vox

Here's a pop quiz, just to see wow alike you and I are: which sentence etched itself into your brain?

 

[Chomsky]

98% obviously sounds nice, but if I told you that for every 100 times you went to the supermarket, 2 of those trips would result in a car wreck, I'm guessing you'd make a lot more use of Amazon Fresh than you do now.

Just out of curiosity, where are you getting the spoil rate from?

Don't remember. I seem to recall it from the recent East Coast election that had problems (NY? NJ?). The one that took weeks, and Trump was calling to re-do? But you know what? I'm going to retract it. The number is higher than in-person ballots, but I'm not going to try to quantify it.

 

[Chomsky]

I read this Vox article in full last night. The piece is equal parts terrifying and comforting, as maybe you'll see why after you read it. It really is worth the 10-15 minutes.

The eerie stability of Donald Trump’s approval rating, explained - Vox

Here's a pop quiz, just to see wow alike you and I are: which sentence etched itself into your brain?

Will get to it when I can. Thx.

 

[Cardinal]

Will get to it when I can. Thx.

Take your time. Vox and Atlantic articles are meant to be read with patience, when the day is over and a glass of sherry by your side, not to be hurried through breathlessly.

 

[Chomsky]

Thanks.

Take your time. Vox and Atlantic articles are meant to be read with patience, when the day is over and a glass of sherry by your side, not to be hurried through breathlessly.

Yep. Atlantic, The Economist, Scientific American, have great articles - when you desire & are are willing to work through them. High effort, but high reward!