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Post-Convention Analysis: Biden maintains solid lead over Trump.

I read this Vox article in full last night. The piece is equal parts terrifying and comforting, as maybe you'll see why after you read it. It really is worth the 10-15 minutes.

The eerie stability of Donald Trump’s approval rating, explained - Vox

Here's a pop quiz, just to see wow alike you and I are: which sentence etched itself into your brain?
“The stability unnerves me because it undermines the basic theory of responsive democracy. If our political divisions cut so deep that even 200,000 deaths and 10.2 percent unemployment and a president musing about bleach injections can’t shake us, then what can?”
 
“The stability unnerves me because it undermines the basic theory of responsive democracy. If our political divisions cut so deep that even 200,000 deaths and 10.2 percent unemployment and a president musing about bleach injections can’t shake us, then what can?”

It was the line instantly following that that did it for me: "And if the answer is nothing, then that means the crucial form of accountability in American politics has collapsed."

Ugh.
 
It was the line instantly following that that did it for me: "And if the answer is nothing, then that means the crucial form of accountability in American politics has collapsed."

Ugh.

Maybe among voters that's always been true? What has changed is that political leaders in one party have decided to no longer be responsible to the truth or to our founding ideals.
 
I read this Vox article in full last night. The piece is equal parts terrifying and comforting, as maybe you'll see why after you read it. It really is worth the 10-15 minutes.

The eerie stability of Donald Trump’s approval rating, explained - Vox

Here's a pop quiz, just to see wow alike you and I are: which sentence etched itself into your brain?

"“If you see Trump as ‘the protector of Western Civilization,’ as Charlie Kirk called him the other night at the RNC, or the protector of white America, as Desmond King and Rogers Smith have called him"
 
"“If you see Trump as ‘the protector of Western Civilization,’ as Charlie Kirk called him the other night at the RNC, or the protector of white America, as Desmond King and Rogers Smith have called him"

There were a bunch of memorable ones in that article.
 
I saw small bounces for both men, with a little more for Trump. Both seem to have come back down, with just a little lingering for Trump.

Guys, you can't use day to day polling as a metric. The polling firm samples are too different. Quinnipiac has had Biden in a range of +10 through +15, Rasmussen has had Biden in a range of +1 through +8. Every new day the back poll is dropped, and replaced with a poll from a completely different firm.

The only accurate way to tell who is getting a bounce, and then whether the bounce has come down, is to compare each poll to the previous poll that firm put out. And then average all the trends, comparing each poll to the previous poll that same firm released.
 
it's going to take a lot of votes to replace the president. vote.
 
As the next 60 days tick down, expect the Bizarre from trump and his minions.
 
You can’t use day to day polling to look for trends, a lot of the swing in the averages depends on which firms release polls when. When Quinnipiac is released, Biden gets a boost. When Emerson is released, Trump gets a boost.

Trump got a solid bounce from the RNC with about 5 or 6 firms, and it’s way too early to make a conclusion that he lost the bounce, you’d have to wait until these firms release their next numbers.

To me, it looks like a similar situation to what we had in September four years ago.

Here we go with this whiny crybaby excuse again.

Reuben only believes polls he want's to believe in and they have to be released on the days that he preordains as the correct day for a poll to be released. :lol:
 
Yeah, but Trump will cheat, guaranteed.

Here's now it's going to go down...

Election night, the returns will be around 15% of the total vote. They will be counted in-person votes and trump will be leading. Trump will declare victory with that 15% counted and rile up his sheep to revolt about the other 85% of mail in ballots yet to be counted.

After election night, Trumpanzee nation will do all they can to try and stop the vote count. This is how it will go down and you can bank on it.

It's going to get damn nasty so hunker down.
 
Which source are you using?

The polls from the other day. He approves of the other day's polling. Not todays polling or yesterday's polling. Just the day's that make trump look better than he usually is. No other day. Those polls don't count.

Not any of these polls...

President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

or any of these polls...

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Election 2020 Presidential Polls

Basically rassmussen. He believes in rassmussen polls. That's about it at this point.
 
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Here we go with this whiny crybaby excuse again.

Reuben only believes polls he want's to believe in and they have to be released on the days that he preordains as the correct day for a poll to be released. :lol:

Why are there 2 or 3 of you constantly quoting me and talking to me in third person? :lamo

Use any of the polls you want to, Power Rob.

But compare each poll to the previous poll put out by that same firm.

If RCP adds a Quinnipiac poll and drops the Rasmussen poll, Biden's lead will grow.

If RCP adds an Emerson poll and drops a Georgetown University poll, Biden's lead will shrink.

It's not rocket science.

And Rob, you really don't have to use this emoji :lol: in every single post. It gets old. :lol:
 
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Why are there 2 or 3 of you constantly quoting me and talking to me in third person? :lamo

Use any of the polls you want to, Power Rob.

But compare each poll to the previous poll put out by that same firm.

If RCP adds a Quinnipiac poll and drops the Rasmussen poll, Biden's lead will grow.

If RCP adds an Emerson poll and drops a Georgetown University poll, Biden's lead will shrink.

It's not rocket science.

And Rob, you really don't have to use this emoji :lol: in every single post. It gets old. :lol:

The only poll that matters is in 60 days.
 
Here's now it's going to go down...

Election night, the returns will be around 15% of the total vote. They will be counted in-person votes and trump will be leading. Trump will declare victory with that 15% counted and rile up his sheep to revolt about the other 85% of mail in ballots yet to be counted.

After election night, Trumpanzee nation will do all they can to try and stop the vote count. This is how it will go down and you can bank on it.

It's going to get damn nasty so hunker down.

Eh, I'm 3 hours from the border.....
 
Why are there 2 or 3 of you constantly quoting me and talking to me in third person? :lamo

Use any of the polls you want to, Power Rob.

But compare each poll to the previous poll put out by that same firm.

I do that as well as compared the aggregate totals.

If RCP adds a Quinnipiac poll and drops the Rasmussen poll, Biden's lead will grow.

If RCP adds an Emerson poll and drops a Georgetown University poll, Biden's lead will shrink.

It's not rocket science.

And Rob, you really don't have to use this emoji :lol: in every single post. It gets old. :lol:

How about this one? :lamo
 
Guys, you can't use day to day polling as a metric. The polling firm samples are too different. Quinnipiac has had Biden in a range of +10 through +15, Rasmussen has had Biden in a range of +1 through +8. Every new day the back poll is dropped, and replaced with a poll from a completely different firm.

The only accurate way to tell who is getting a bounce, and then whether the bounce has come down, is to compare each poll to the previous poll that firm put out. And then average all the trends, comparing each poll to the previous poll that same firm released.
Agreed. Great post! But by using an aggregator site (538/RCP), you can still get a rough feel for what's going-on.
 
Agreed. Great post! But by using an aggregator site (538/RCP), you can still get a rough feel for what's going-on.

Let's be realistic, with this election most people have their minds made up, which explains why there is far less undecided voters this time around.

I know of no-one who is changing their votes because of the conventions. I don't even think the debates will make much of a difference.
 
You can’t use day to day polling to look for trends, a lot of the swing in the averages depends on which firms release polls when. When Quinnipiac is released, Biden gets a boost. When Emerson is released, Trump gets a boost.

Trump got a solid bounce from the RNC with about 5 or 6 firms, and it’s way too early to make a conclusion that he lost the bounce, you’d have to wait until these firms release their next numbers.

To me, it looks like a similar situation to what we had in September four years ago.

Post polling shows Trump got no bounce, Joe is destroying him on the issue of LOR AND ORDER.

Every Trump voter thinks every election looks like 2016 despite 2018 being more predictive of 2020. And the data backs that up thus far.

Just say you think he’s gonna win just cause. That’s the data argument for a Trump victory at this point. ;)
 
Let's be realistic, with this election most people have their minds made up, which explains why there is far less undecided voters this time around.

I know of no-one who is changing their votes because of the conventions. I don't even think the debates will make much of a difference.
Crazy as it sounds, you may be right. Who would ever think debates wouldn't matter? Or, matter much? Well, it just might be.

So if this is the case in today's America, it all might come down to voter suppression/tabulation-control. That might be the only place left to move the end-result a point or two.
 
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