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Polls do NOT account for cheats or vote suppression efforts

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Slavister

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Just a note to all the poll watchers. Trump WILL do better than polls simply because ...

538: "We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted. "

source
 
Every day we learn of Democratic Party election divisions mailing out thousands and tens of thousands of fraudulent ballots. 100,000 in New York yesterday. Add throwing away ballots voting for Trump, mailing Democrats 2 ballots - the list is endless.
 
Felis Leo said:
Well that kind of goes without saying doesn’t it?
Click to expand...

I suspected this but did not know for sure if they try to account for it somehow. I also think many people assume polls and models should be close to results if they are accurate / represenative / etc, but clearly not necessarily, especially in this election cycle...

joko104 said:
Every day we learn of Democratic Party election divisions mailing out thousands and tens of thousands of fraudulent ballots. 100,000 in New York yesterday. Add throwing away ballots voting for Trump, mailing Democrats 2 ballots - the list is endless.
Click to expand...

Yes, you "learn" all kinds of made up shit every day. It's amazing. Hope they pay you enough, comrade.
 
Slavister said:
Just a note to all the poll watchers. Trump WILL do better than polls simply because ...

538: "We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted. "

source
Click to expand...
Man, I've been beating on this for weeks! I'm taking 2 pts off Biden specifically to reflect this effect. Trouble is, I have no idea if 2 pts s enough, or not?
 
Chomsky said:
Man, I've been beating on this for weeks! I'm taking 2 pts off Biden specifically to reflect this effect. Trouble is, I have no idea if 2 pts s enough, or not?
Click to expand...


Could be 100 points if Russians are successful in breaking into the vote counting systems. Last time they tried to break into all 50 states. Really, they just need some key countries - no wonder Trump campaign had shared private polling data with them back in 2016...

Now, with 4 more years of experience and a friendly administration ...
 
Slavister said:
I suspected this but did not know for sure if they try to account for it somehow. I also think many people assume polls and models should be close to results if they are accurate / represenative / etc, but clearly not necessarily, especially in this election cycle...



Yes, you "learn" all kinds of made up shit every day. It's amazing. Hope they pay you enough, comrade.
Click to expand...

Calling posters "comrade" are always no-brainy idiocy messages.

OK, you just declared New York Governor Cuomo is a Russian operative liar. OK, I won't argue with you about that.
 
joko104 said:
Every day we learn of Democratic Party election divisions mailing out thousands and tens of thousands of fraudulent ballots. 100,000 in New York yesterday. Add throwing away ballots voting for Trump, mailing Democrats 2 ballots - the list is endless.
Click to expand...
Well, Hitler had many saying in his walk to power, among them: It is easier to believe a lie that one has heard a thousand times than to believe a fact that no one has heard before
 
joko104 said:
OK, you just declared New York Governor Cuomo is a Russian operative liar. OK, I won't argue with you about that.
Click to expand...

You incorrectly and on purpose called them "fraudulent" ballots. Errorneous is NOT fraudulent. And if they WERE fraudulent, they would benefit Trump not Biden. I guess you just proved someone is trying to commit fraud in NY to benefit Trump then. Good one.

Conservatively, over 90% of posts I've read from you are lies.
 
Slavister said:
You incorrectly and on purpose called them "fraudulent" ballots. Errorneous is NOT fraudulent. And if they WERE fraudulent, they would benefit Trump not Biden. I guess you just proved someone is trying to commit fraud in NY to benefit Trump then. Good one.

Conservatively, over 90% of posts I've read from you are lies.
Click to expand...

Your messages just keep getting dumber. Democrats in NYC found an excuse to get 100,000 people a second ballot so they can vote twice - in 2 different names for 2 different addresses - all for Biden.
Another 100,000 fraudulent votes for Democrats. Thousands here, tens of thousands there, a hundred thousand in New York. Every day the same story - every day in Democratic Party jurisdictions.
You declaring Governor Cuomo is a Russian operative and liars doesn't change the facts - of course you now also declare CNN of being a pro-Biden Russian operation too.
 
joko104 said:
Every day we learn of Democratic Party election divisions mailing out thousands and tens of thousands of fraudulent ballots. 100,000 in New York yesterday. Add throwing away ballots voting for Trump, mailing Democrats 2 ballots - the list is endless.
Click to expand...
My Wife, and I have our ballots here on the kitchen table, they come in a few days ago.
We haven't filled them out yet, but when we do. I will be sure to mark the outside 'For Biden'. That way, they won't be thrown away.
I really appreciate the tip! Thanks!
 
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joko104 said:
Your messages just keep getting dumber. Democrats in NYC found an excuse to get 100,000 people a second ballot so they can vote twice - in 2 different names for 2 different addresses - all for Biden.
Another 100,000 fraudulent votes for Democrats. Thousands here, tens of thousands there, a hundred thousand in New York. Every day the same story - every day in Democratic Party jurisdictions.
You declaring Governor Cuomo is a Russian operative and liars doesn't change the facts - of course you now also declare CNN of being a pro-Biden Russian operation too.
Click to expand...

Lies as always. These are absentee requests. They are not ballots. So no, noone would be able to vote twice using these.

But yes, I am sure Trump is thinking he will win NY State so Dems have to resort to rigging it :ROFLMAO:
 
Slavister said:
Could be 100 points if Russians are successful in breaking into the vote counting systems. Last time they tried to break into all 50 states. Really, they just need some key countries - no wonder Trump campaign had shared private polling data with them back in 2016...

Now, with 4 more years of experience and a friendly administration ...
Click to expand...
Actually, I forgot about Trump sharing his data with them. Yeah, I hate to latch onto conspiracies - but I do have concerns. At the least, Putin help Trump sow chaos and put the election in dispute, opening the door for Trump & the GOP to take 'extraordinary measures', whatever they may be.
 
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