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polling stuff

trixare4kids said:
Fantastic! :cool:
GaVPy37W8AAbkFS
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Wow. 93% chance to win.

Never seen that before
 
Still think it comes down to turnout and specifically gender gaps in the battleground states. Based on this article Georgia and Arizona are going to be tough to repeat but Blue Wall States, Nevada and North Carolina are In play. Poll takers demographic breakdowns need to be scrutinized.


www.brookings.edu

How gender gaps could tip the presidential race in 2024 | Brookings

Elaine Kamarck looks at how the gender gap among voters will affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
www.brookings.edu www.brookings.edu
 
trixare4kids said:
Fantastic! :cool:
GaVPy37W8AAbkFS
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Trix, this seems way off to me (the right side Electoral College part). The right side of this seems like it would be Silver's electoral college "forecast" which I thought was currently something like 52% chance Trump will win, 48% chance Harris. I don't understand this RCP/Silver Bulletin combo or how anyone reached this conclusion?
 
Callen said:
Could be because RCP is not posting Harris positive polls while posting Trump positive polls from the exact same pollster
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You might want to consider unsticking yourself from this new rabbit hole or yours. If you don't, I think you'll end up embarrassing yourself as you go all over the forum being "stuck". We've seen this dance before.

Right now (for something like a total of 23 days, right up until the election), TIPP is doing a daily Harris vs Trump poll. RCP never includes and averages in each day of a daily poll. Just as they've done with presidential daily polls for years, they only include the most recent one. They wouldn't skew an average with a whole pile of polls happening daily, mixed in with polls happening at much less frequent intervals, like monthly for example. So right now, if you look at the list of polls, you'll see this new one with Trump up 2 and you have to go all the way back to a month ago to find the previous TIPP one. The TIPP one from the day before this one has been overridden by this one and this one will very likely be overridden by yet another new one tomorrow.

Maybe this link will help you understand what TIPP is up to and RCP is simply responding just exactly as they do to other pollsters who always or temporarily roll out daily polling.

tippinsights.com

TIPP Tracking Poll Day 7: Trump Surges Past Harris, Seizing 2-Point Lead

Powerful Momentum Shift Reverses the Race
tippinsights.com tippinsights.com
 
gbg3 said:
You might want to consider unsticking yourself from this new rabbit hole or yours. If you don't, I think you'll end up embarrassing yourself as you go all over the forum being "stuck". We've seen this dance before.

Right now (for something like a total of 23 days, right up until the election), TIPP is doing a daily Harris vs Trump poll. RCP never includes and averages in each day of a daily poll. Just as they've done with presidential daily polls for years, they only include the most recent one. They wouldn't skew an average with a whole pile of polls happening daily, mixed in with polls happening at much less frequent intervals, like monthly for example. So right now, if you look at the list of polls, you'll see this new one with Trump up 2 and you have to go all the way back to a month ago to find the previous TIPP one. The TIPP one from the day before this one has been overridden by this one and this one will very likely be overridden by yet another new one tomorrow.

Maybe this link will help you understand what TIPP is up to and RCP is simply responding just exactly as they do to other pollsters who always or temporarily roll out daily polling.

tippinsights.com

TIPP Tracking Poll Day 7: Trump Surges Past Harris, Seizing 2-Point Lead

Powerful Momentum Shift Reverses the Race
tippinsights.com tippinsights.com
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I read the link.. still n ot clear on what TIPP does. does they poll or aggregate polling data?
PS do you think 51% of voters will wait till Election day itself to vote or drop off?? seems high percentage

America's Most Accurate Pollster | TIPP Online - About Us

America\'s Most Accurate Pollster
tipponline.com tipponline.com
TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) is a leader in the collection and dissemination of public opinion research whose rich insights and analysis are closely followed by news organizations, policymakers, and brands from around the world.
 
gbg3 said:
Right now (for something like a total of 23 days, right up until the election), TIPP is doing a daily Harris vs Trump poll. RCP never includes and averages in each day of a daily poll. Just as they've done with presidential daily polls for years, they only include the most recent one. They wouldn't skew an average with a whole pile of polls happening daily, mixed in with polls happening at much less frequent intervals, like monthly for example. So right now, if you look at the list of polls, you'll see this new one with Trump up 2 and you have to go all the way back to a month ago to find the previous TIPP one. The TIPP one from the day before this one has been overridden by this one and this one will very likely be overridden by yet another new one tomorrow.
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Yes it's very clear they hand pick which of the polls they want to put in their average as they did with the GA polls . Several on the same day and they chose the Trump + 1 over the Harris polls showing her up.
 
Callen said:
Yes it's very clear they hand pick which of the polls they want to put in their average as they did with the GA polls . Several on the same day and they chose the Trump + 1 over the Harris polls showing her up.
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LOL
 
anatta said:
I read the link.. still n ot clear on what TIPP does. does they poll or aggregate polling data?
PS do you think 51% of voters will wait till Election day itself to vote or drop off?? seems high percentage

America's Most Accurate Pollster | TIPP Online - About Us

America\'s Most Accurate Pollster
tipponline.com tipponline.com
TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) is a leader in the collection and dissemination of public opinion research whose rich insights and analysis are closely followed by news organizations, policymakers, and brands from around the world.
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I think they are just a single pollster, rather than doing any aggregating (like RCP does). But I don't know much about them other than they were the most accurate (national category) pollster in the 2020 election, along with HarrisX. Both were only off by 0.5.

I agree about 51% seeming high. Every single family member I have (mostly conservative voters) plan to vote early in one fashion or another.
 
gbg3 said:
I think they are just a single pollster, rather than doing any aggregating (like RCP does). But I don't know much about them other than they were the most accurate (national category) pollster in the 2020 election, along with HarrisX. Both were only off by 0.5.

I agree about 51% seeming high. Every single family member I have (mostly conservative voters) plan to vote early in one fashion or another.
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it's a daily tracking poll?
 
anatta said:
it's a daily tracking poll?
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Not usually, but they apparently become one in the late days of an election. If you read the link in comment 380, it talks about them polling daily for the last 23 days of this election. I don't remember if they did that in 2020 or in any other previous elections.
 
gbg3 said:
Betting markets have certainly been on the move. Trump has a big betting market lead now! Something like 18 points in the RCP average. That was tied around the 10th of October and Harris led for a full month before that.

All 7 states have moved to the red column in the RCP averages for now. Three of them have now reached a 1 point or slightly greater lead, which is still very tight but not long ago, all 7 were less than a 1 point difference in either direction.
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I just typed this comment about the betting markets average on Friday - Trump had an 18 point lead on Friday. And, I need to correct my comment about the two being tied on the 10th of October. To be more correct, it was on 10/6. Prior to that Harris had led for a month.

Now, here we are on Tuesday, 10/22, and Trump currently has an astounding 32 point in this average.
 
If I was a betting man, I would bet on Trump winning this presidential election. But I wouldn't vote for him, and I didn't vote for him.
 
Callen said:
Yes it's very clear they hand pick which of the polls they want to put in their average as they did with the GA polls . Several on the same day and they chose the Trump + 1 over the Harris polls showing her up.
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So which polling groups are not biased to the right?
 
gbg3 said:
I just typed this comment about the betting markets average on Friday - Trump had an 18 point lead on Friday. And, I need to correct my comment about the two being tied on the 10th of October. To be more correct, it was on 10/6. Prior to that Harris had led for a month.

Now, here we are on Tuesday, 10/22, and Trump currently has an astounding 32 point in this average.
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Shows you what those foreigners know.
 
gbg3 said:
I just typed this comment about the betting markets average on Friday - Trump had an 18 point lead on Friday. And, I need to correct my comment about the two being tied on the 10th of October. To be more correct, it was on 10/6. Prior to that Harris had led for a month.

Now, here we are on Tuesday, 10/22, and Trump currently has an astounding 32 point in this average.
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Oops, I had a brain derail. First this should have ended with "32 point lead in this average", but that was just a typing error. My brain derail was thinking 60-38=32, lol. I'd like to say it was a typo but it wasn't, lol. Anyway, 22 (the correct difference) yesterday was only a 4 point greater lead than the 18 point lead Trump had on Friday, so not so astounding as the 14, Friday to Tuesday, point change I thought it was when I clearly couldn't handle simple subtraction.
 
This is a particularly interesting betting market chart today, because I'm able to display it as a 90 day chart which takes us back to nearly the day Biden dropped out and just before Harris moved in as the nominee. The blue line is Trump, purple is Harris.

Harris's peak (the excitement/relief at Joe's departure period for her) appears to have been about August 12. Now we are right back to that same spread but with Trump leading and Harris trailing. Nearly an exact reversal from August 12th to now.



Screenshot 2024-10-23 094913.webp
 
As I said before, I refuse to hop on the "all polls are garbage" train,

But Quinnpac just put Harris at +4 in Michigain, when their last poll put Trump up by 4.

An eight point swing in what, a few weeks?
 
 
Maybe the beginning of a slight reversion from recent weeks?

I predicted it. We'll see if occurs!

🕒 Last update: 3 p.m., Wednesday, October 23. Our model hasn’t moved much over the past several days after Trump's gains last week. In fact, it was kind of a sky-is-not-falling polling day for Harris, with high-quality surveys showing good numbers for her in North Carolina and Michigan and a rebound in a national tracking poll that had shown her behind. It remains hard to know what to expect, other than the fact that this is a really close race.
 
dobieg said:
RCP Election '24 headlines.

There's definately been a momentum shift and it's not for Harris or Democrats.

RealClearPolitics - Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls

www.realclearpolitics.com www.realclearpolitics.com
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I'm a believer in "reversion to the mean". Essentially, that races vacillate to-and-fro over time.

It's going to be interesting to see if Trump is peaking a bit too early? It may be close. We'll see.

Of course if the polls are collectively off, my point is moot!
 
gbg3 said:
This is a particularly interesting betting market chart today, because I'm able to display it as a 90 day chart which takes us back to nearly the day Biden dropped out and just before Harris moved in as the nominee. The blue line is Trump, purple is Harris.

Harris's peak (the excitement/relief at Joe's departure period for her) appears to have been about August 12. Now we are right back to that same spread but with Trump leading and Harris trailing. Nearly an exact reversal from August 12th to now.



View attachment 67539069
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So the moral of the story is to replace your candidate the week prior to the election? :p
 
highroller said:
Wow. 93% chance to win.

Never seen that before
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I think if it looks like a Trump landslide from early vote numbers that will prevent the cheaters from trying as hard as they did in 2020 because there will be consequences this time with a likely Trump victory!
 
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