polling stuff

[gbg3]

I've continued to closely follow polling and feel like after what will likely be the last debate of this election cycle, it's time for some updates and comparisons to polling info from recent/previous threads about polling and betting market stuff. I'll likely post this thread and then about 2 more kind of like it, between now and the election.

In my view, it's currently a tie race as far as the electoral college. If history of underestimating Trump support is still a factor in this election, Trump has an edge. Harris, on the other hand, has consistent national leads and I think it would be hard for her not to win the popular vote.

It will take me a bit of time to locate past threads and comments with the kinds of info I think will be interesting to compare, but I'll get started on that in the comments below.

 

[phoenix2020]

I think Americans should consider JD Vance’s lack of spine and history of eating cats, when exercising their constitutional right to vote.

 

[gbg3]

A little over a week ago, NatMorton posted a thread discussing if Harris had peaked. I was also feeling that way but still wanted more data (and more of a "trend") to confirm those feelings. Now, I think NatMorton was right. In that thread, I pulled together this info on 9/22:


Now, I've grabbed this same info but from today. Here it is for comparison:

AZ - today Trump is up 1.7. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 3.1.
WI - today Harris is up 0.5. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 5.8.
MI - today Harris is up 1.7. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 5.7.
PA - today it's a tie. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 6.8.
GA - today Trump is up 1.5. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 0.3

Now I can add in NC and NV. On 9/22, RCP didn't have same day in 2020 data for those two states but now they do. In 2020 they must have not been polling those two until later - enough to have good averages for those states. But now we're to the point where we do have that 2020 data.

NC - today Trump is up 0.6. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 0.7.
NV - today Harris is up 1.1. Same day in 2020, Biden was up 5.3.

 

[gbg3]

Also, on 9/22, we have this info.

Came across another nugget in my reading this morning. According to RCP, Harris's national vote lead is 1.9%. At this stage of the 2020 election Biden's was 6.5%.

Today, Harris's national lead is 2.0. At this stage of the 2020 election, Biden's was 7.4%.

 

[gbg3]

Now for a look at betting market averages from RCP. Here is a comment from 9/17. Harris was up by 4 points on that day and, as the comment indicates, she had experienced a 9 point upward shift due to her debate with Trump.

In the betting market average, Harris has gained substantially. Harris is now up by 4 points. Last Tuesday, pre-debate, Trump was up by 5 points. She's gained 9 points over the week.

Today, Harris has a 0.1% lead in the betting market average on RCP (49.4 - Harris, 49.3 - Trump). This has shifted a little toward Trump's favor since the VP debate last night. Yesterday, Harris had between a 2 and 2.5% lead in this average. Here is a 3 month graph of that average so you can see the whole period since Harris became the official nominee.

 

[gbg3]

Then here is a comment where I posted the battleground chart on 9/10 and on 9/17. Following that, I'll post the latest one (10/1).

Now we're a week from the debate, so here's a comparison to the RCP data from comment 1.

In the national Trump vs. Harris average, Harris is now up by 1.7. Last Tuesday, pre-debate, she was up by 1.1. She's gained 0.6 over the week.

In the betting market average, Harris has gained substantially. Harris is now up by 4 points. Last Tuesday, pre-debate, Trump was up by 5 points. She's gained 9 points over the week.

The battleground states are still very close and Trump has gained just a tiny bit over the week. The first chart is 9/10, pre-debate, and the second chart is today, 9/17. Trump has lost a little ground in AZ and GA but gained a little ground in PA and NC. Harris has lost a little ground in WI and MI but gained a little ground in NV. But, overall, all of these states remain virtually tied.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

How polls work:

My guy is up, your guy is down, polls are trustworthy and reliable.
My guy is down, your guy is up, polls are bogus and unreliable.

How do I know this. I have been on this forum for a while now. EVERY TIME there has been a poll over the last few years showing a Democrat ahead of a Republican, or when before the 2020 election polls showed Biden leading, Righties were furious. Absolutely raging.

Now, it's neck in neck, and the same Righties are rubbing their hands in glee.

Now, I like an honest answer here: If the polls suddenly showed Trump gaining a huge lead, would there or would there not be a massive amount of gloating from the SAME folks who previously mocked polls any time a Republican or Trump was down?

Anyone?

 

[jpn]

I've continued to closely follow polling and feel like after what will likely be the last debate of this election cycle, it's time for some updates and comparisons to polling info from recent/previous threads about polling and betting market stuff. I'll likely post this thread and then about 2 more kind of like it, between now and the election.

In my view, it's currently a tie race as far as the electoral college. If history of underestimating Trump support is still a factor in this election, Trump has an edge. Harris, on the other hand, has consistent national leads and I think it would be hard for her not to win the popular vote.

It will take me a bit of time to locate past threads and comments with the kinds of info I think will be interesting to compare, but I'll get started on that in the comments below.

Wow. Largest Harris lead so far in the Economist aggregate poll. Lots of pundits have said a lead of two percentage points or more is necessary for Harris to win the electoral college. This puts her lead at 4.3 percent.

 

[jpn]

The 538 aggregate poll, which has consistently shown Harris's lead to be smaller than the Economist, now has Harris at 2.6 ahead of Trump.

The biggest change has been Harris's favorables, which have steadily climbed, and so far are continuing to do so. They're now at 1.2 percent favorable.
Trump's favorables continue steady at from 9 to 10 percent unfavorable.

 

[Callen]

Here is Nate Silvers current take on things.

" Last update: 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, October 1. It’s a rare double update day here at the Silver Bulletin. Not much has changed since our update earlier today but we wanted to grab the last few polls before tonight’s Vice Presidential Debate.

Trump got a couple good polls from Quinnipiac, but Harris put up some strong numbers in Pennsylvania earlier today. Overall the model is holding steady. Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average — up from 3.2 points yesterday. But her chance of winning the Electoral College is still hovering right around 55%.

 

[Ikari]

It's mostly just 50/50. Harris has a statistically insignificant advantage at this point.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Harris does just barely have a positive favorability rating compared to Trump's continued unfavorable rating. So overall, America prefers Harris. As it concerns the EC and who can win office, it's tied.

 

[gbg3]

Wow. Largest Harris lead so far in the Economist aggregate poll. Lots of pundits have said a lead of two percentage points or more is necessary for Harris to win the electoral college. This puts her lead at 4.3 percent.

View attachment 67535581

I clicked into that to see what this is showing. I wasn't sure whether it was a forecast of chances of winning the electoral college, chances of winning the popular vote, or whatever.

I guess I'm still not sure, but in that link, I laughed at the partisan slant. Here is what the description of Trump started with - "Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record". For the guy who consistently has the lead on the top issues of economy, the border, crime, and foreign policy, dismal record is a comical way to start a description of Trump. 1.4% inflation, a border under control with illegal crossings at markedly lower numbers than with the current administration, and no new wars as components of a "dismal record", is interesting for sure.

Here is a direction of country chart (from January of 2009 to present - nearly 16 years). The consistently best years were Trump's years - the guy with the "dismal record". LOL.

Media bias/distortion have reached disastrous and absolute junk levels in this country.

 

[Callen]

Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record". For the guy who consistently has the lead on the top issues of economy, the border, crime, and foreign policy, dismal record is a comical way to start a description

His record in terms of the data and the perception people may have are two different things. The former is based on facts the latter on emotion and media influence.

 

[Callen]

Silvers take this PM
Last update: 3 p.m., Wednesday, October 2. A good day of polling for Kamala Harris, especially in higher-quality surveys.

 

[Demon]

 

[KingLeo]

I put little to no credence to any polling data.
Polls are easily manipulated.

Major Conservative Poll Cited by Media Secretly Worked With Trump Team​

Leaked emails reveal the truth about Rasmussen Reports—and the way the Trump campaign is breaking election law.​

Major Conservative Poll Cited by Media Secretly Worked With Trump Team

Leaked emails reveal the truth about Rasmussen Reports—and the way the Trump campaign is breaking election law.

newrepublic.com

 

[trixare4kids]

I just posted something similarly on the Nate Silver thread.

A study of recent polling by veteran analyst Nate Silver released on Tuesday put Harris ahead by 3.4 points, but found her chances of overall victory were only 55 percent due to the Electoral College system. On Wednesday, Trump became the favorite to win in November, according to bookmaker Betfair following the previous evening's vice presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance.

Nate Silver reports, "Donald Trump Again Favored to Beat Kamala Harris: Election Forecast"

Her flip-flop on fracking (even Fetterman couldn't answer the question at Meet The Press), will come back to bite her. All the Trump campaign had to do is keep showing a video of her flipflop. Trump's got his own flip flops to account for. Flip: Trump: Nation’s infrastructure can be fixed...

debatepolitics.com

 

[jpn]

I clicked into that to see what this is showing. I wasn't sure whether it was a forecast of chances of winning the electoral college, chances of winning the popular vote, or whatever.

I guess I'm still not sure, but in that link, I laughed at the partisan slant. Here is what the description of Trump started with - "Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record". For the guy who consistently has the lead on the top issues of economy, the border, crime, and foreign policy, dismal record is a comical way to start a description of Trump. 1.4% inflation, a border under control with illegal crossings at markedly lower numbers than with the current administration, and no new wars as components of a "dismal record", is interesting for sure.

If you had read on instead of dissolving into gales of laughter, you're have read that by "record," the Economist was referring to Trump's criminal record.

Yeah. Dismal.

 

[Callen]

I'm usure of what the purpose / objective of this thread is. Is it for all of us to post clips of what current polls say ?

 

[gbg3]

If you had read on instead of dissolving into gales of laughter, you're have read that by "record," the Economist was referring to Trump's criminal record.

Yeah. Dismal.

That's NOT true. Here is the full paragraph.

"Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record: supporters tried to overturn his election loss in 2020; he faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme and has been convicted of felonies for hush-money payments connected to his 2016 presidential campaign. On July 13th, at a rally in Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old man shot at Mr Trump, grazing the former president’s ear and killing a bystander. Politicians of all stripes urged allies and rivals to lower the political temperature. Mr Trump, who showed rare restraint in the aftermath of the shooting, has since returned to his divisive rhetoric in speeches. In a fiery televised debate on September 10th, Ms Harris made Mr Trump look out of his depth. And on September 15th Secret Service agents spotted another would-be assassin with a rifle beside the golf course in Florida where Mr Trump was playing, raising fears of more political violence (the suspect was quickly arrested).

 

[Callen]

That's NOT true. Here is the full paragraph.

"Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record: supporters tried to overturn his election loss in 2020; he faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme and has been convicted of felonies for hush-money payments connected to his 2016 presidential campaign. On July 13th, at a rally in Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old man shot at Mr Trump, grazing the former president’s ear and killing a bystander. Politicians of all stripes urged allies and rivals to lower the political temperature. Mr Trump, who showed rare restraint in the aftermath of the shooting, has since returned to his divisive rhetoric in speeches. In a fiery televised debate on September 10th, Ms Harris made Mr Trump look out of his depth. And on September 15th Secret Service agents spotted another would-be assassin with a rifle beside the golf course in Florida where Mr Trump was playing, raising fears of more political violence (the suspect was quickly arrested).

What in that talks to his positions on the issues you think he is ahead on?

 

[gbg3]

I'm usure of what the purpose / objective of this thread is. Is it for all of us to post clips of what current polls say ?

Good, then see you elsewhere. Why don't you consider starting your own thread with a purpose and objective you'd enjoy conversing about - because posts like the one you added are just pesky disruptions for that very purpose. There isn't a mandate for you to spend your days following me around the forum in an obsessive mode.

 

[Callen]

Good, then see you elsewhere. Why don't you consider starting your own thread with a purpose and objective you'd enjoy conversing about - because posts like the one you added are just pesky disruptions for that very purpose. There isn't a mandate for you to spend your days following me around the forum in an obsessive mode.

Seriously I am trying to understand what the objective/purpose of this thread is. What are we to discuss ? Comparisons to 2020, current polling, only RCP....? Given you won't explain the objective perhaps someone else can help me understand what we are to discuss or maybe you are just trying to be informative which is good.

 

[jpn]

That's NOT true. Here is the full paragraph.

"Mr Trump, meanwhile, has a dismal record: supporters tried to overturn his election loss in 2020; he faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme and has been convicted of felonies for hush-money payments connected to his 2016 presidential campaign. On July 13th, at a rally in Pennsylvania, a 20-year-old man shot at Mr Trump, grazing the former president’s ear and killing a bystander. Politicians of all stripes urged allies and rivals to lower the political temperature. Mr Trump, who showed rare restraint in the aftermath of the shooting, has since returned to his divisive rhetoric in speeches. In a fiery televised debate on September 10th, Ms Harris made Mr Trump look out of his depth. And on September 15th Secret Service agents spotted another would-be assassin with a rifle beside the golf course in Florida where Mr Trump was playing, raising fears of more political violence (the suspect was quickly arrested).

Okay, I see what you meant.
Still, you gotta admit, it's a pretty dismal record. And that's not even going into being found liable for sexual assault and being caught on tape bragging about it to a stranger.
And being prohibited from running a charity in New York State because he was cheating donors.
And having to pay restitution to victims of his fake "university."
And trying to overturn a fair and free election--oh, wait, they did mention that but didn't even begin to do the matter justice.

Imagine someone saying, "oh, sure, he assaults women and can't be trusted with a charity, much less our democracy, but he did manage to stay out of the way of the economic growth he inherited until it all collapsed during a pandemic that he downplayed until he himself contracted it."

 

[ScrambledEggs]

If history of underestimating Trump support is still a factor in this election, Trump has an edge.

Pollsters have been weighting Republicans much more this cycle to account for 2016/2020 turn out. Will see if those weights hold.