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Political black swans

Simpletruther

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There is plenty of time for and event to swing the polls either way.


I still remember how hurricane sandy seemed to be a higher factor in shifting the polls for Obama in 2012.

And then that’s fat basterxd Chris Cristy hugged obama in an emotional moment about the hurricane. that hug May have gave Obama the win.

It will be interesting. Seeing things unfold. The wrong riot, the wrong death, or. the wrong right wing counter action that turns people off might turn the election at the last minute.


And power brokers on both sides are probably trying to manufacture black swans as we speak.
 

Drawdown

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Mittens never realistically had a chance. The only reason Obama didn't have a landslide was because he didn't really seem to care if he won or not.
 

TypicalRussian

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or maybe a secret email server is discovered
 

Simpletruther

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Mittens never realistically had a chance. The only reason Obama didn't have a landslide was because he didn't really seem to care if he won or not.

Still, Romney was leading up until the hurricane.
 

Simpletruther

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or maybe a secret email server is discovered


Another credible sexual allegation on either one of them at the last minute could be the difference. A small group of voters are always last minute, and vote with their emotions of the day.
 

Drawdown

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Still, Romney was leading up until the hurricane.

Romney was never going to do well. Living in the south, I saw a lot of indirect attacks on him coming from the right in the form of anti-Mormon propaganda being circulated by conservative churches that have not circulated it that openly and hostile before or since in my lifetime at least.
 

Simpletruther

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Romney was never going to do well. Living in the south, I saw a lot of indirect attacks on him coming from the right in the form of anti-Mormon propaganda being circulated by conservative churches that have not circulated it that openly and hostile before or since in my lifetime at least.

I trust the polling, not like some of fellow conservatives.
 

Simpletruther

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You and President Rodham-Clinton. Everybody else, not so much.

If you will research you will see the polls were pretty close as far as popular vote goes,within the margin of error which means they were accurate, as far as they were able, to be. I don’t claim they are perfect. I just trust them in general to give s pretty accurate picture.
 

Drawdown

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If you will research you will see the polls were pretty close as far as popular vote goes,within the margin of error which means they were accurate, as far as they were able, to be. I don’t claim they are perfect. I just trust them in general to give s pretty accurate picture.

That is like saying because the climate models show the same generic trend they are highly accurate. When your margin or error is larger than the percentage of people who decide elections, that will always be the case.
 

Simpletruther

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That is like saying because the climate models show the same generic trend they are highly accurate. When your margin or error is larger than the percentage of people who decide elections, that will always be the case.

Yes, and sense the margin of error is never going to be zero in a small sample, polls can never 100% predict elections, even while being fairly close to reflecting the voting results.
 

RaleBulgarian

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Mittens never realistically had a chance. The only reason Obama didn't have a landslide was because he didn't really seem to care if he won or not.
Really? What exactly about Obama’s demeanor gave you the impression that he didn’t care if he won or lost?

Fun fact - Obama received more electoral votes in both terms (365 in ‘08, and 332 in ‘12) than Trump (304) in ‘16. Not bad for a guy with a lackadaisical attitude. ;)

Still, Romney was leading up until the hurricane.
Horse ****.
04FF3E5E-68A8-4E14-8C40-F075E8F5D2F0.jpg
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
8F6CD225-B5D7-4AEE-B02E-1A1DAC2DAF66.jpg
Obama Holds Lead; Romney Trails on Most Issues | Pew Research Center
 

Simpletruther

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Really? What exactly about Obama’s demeanor gave you the impression that he didn’t care if he won or lost?

Fun fact - Obama received more electoral votes in both terms (365 in ‘08, and 332 in ‘12) than Trump (304) in ‘16. Not bad for a guy with a lackadaisical attitude. ;)


Horse ****.
View attachment 67294120
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
View attachment 67294121
Obama Holds Lead; Romney Trails on Most Issues | Pew Research Center
It seems to confirm my point.
 

Simpletruther

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Lie. That wasn’t your point.

Which was my recollection, why does everything have to be a lie on discussion boards? Is this how you act in real life over trivial things like this?
 

lwf

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There is plenty of time for and event to swing the polls either way.


I still remember how hurricane sandy seemed to be a higher factor in shifting the polls for Obama in 2012.

And then that’s fat basterxd Chris Cristy hugged obama in an emotional moment about the hurricane. that hug May have gave Obama the win.

It will be interesting. Seeing things unfold. The wrong riot, the wrong death, or. the wrong right wing counter action that turns people off might turn the election at the last minute.


And power brokers on both sides are probably trying to manufacture black swans as we speak.

This is certainly the case in normal elections, but we haven't had normal elections since 2012. These are highly divided partisan elections. Cultivate enough hatred of the other candidate and voters will overlook any black swans no matter how large and honking on their side. Republicans proved it in 2016, and Democrats may prove it in 2020, assuming that Republicans are able to manufacture any Trump-sized black swans for Biden, which they don't seem to have been able to do yet.
 

RaleBulgarian

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Which was my recollection, why does everything have to be a lie on discussion boards? Is this how you act in real life over trivial things like this?
Maybe your recollection of 2012 was that Romney led until Hurricane Sandy hit. I didn’t question your veracity regarding that. I provided proof of your wrong assertion.

When you responded, saying that it seemed to confirm your point, that was a blatant lie.

The issue now isn’t why I called you out for lying, something that should be obvious rather, why did you lie about a comment you made a short time earlier? Better yet, why’d you lie at all?

And to respond to your query, truth isn’t a trivial thing to me. One of the most important life’s lessons I was taught as a small boy is that a person is only as good as their word.
 

Simpletruther

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This is certainly the case in normal elections, but we haven't had normal elections since 2012. These are highly divided partisan elections. Cultivate enough hatred of the other candidate and voters will overlook any black swans no matter how large and honking on their side. Republicans proved it in 2016, and Democrats may prove it in 2020, assuming that Republicans are able to manufacture any Trump-sized black swans for Biden, which they don't seem to have been able to do yet.

Those few middle voters though, they don’t hate either one, they are just floating around not sure what they want. Anything can sing their vote.

It could be anything, a big stock market crash the day before election could cause a few votes to swing that alter the outcome.

Or some big positive news about coronvius subsiding day’s before the election, whatever.
 

Guyzilla

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There is plenty of time for and event to swing the polls either way.


I still remember how hurricane sandy seemed to be a higher factor in shifting the polls for Obama in 2012.

And then that’s fat basterxd Chris Cristy hugged obama in an emotional moment about the hurricane. that hug May have gave Obama the win.

It will be interesting. Seeing things unfold. The wrong riot, the wrong death, or. the wrong right wing counter action that turns people off might turn the election at the last minute.


And power brokers on both sides are probably trying to manufacture black swans as we speak.

Things are NOT unfolding. They are engineered, by a man that is supposed to wield that power for OUR SAKES.
 

Simpletruther

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Things are NOT unfolding. They are engineered, by a man that is supposed to wield that power for OUR SAKES.

Most things are out of his control. He could be taken down by countless different unexpected events. Or boosted by an unexpected event.


BTW, I appreciate your civil discussion habits, as polar different as we are. It’s hard to find people who can discuss things without devolving into a snotty flaming bickering fest.
 

lwf

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Those few middle voters though, they don’t hate either one, they are just floating around not sure what they want. Anything can sing their vote.

It could be anything, a big stock market crash the day before election could cause a few votes to swing that alter the outcome.

Or some big positive news about coronvius subsiding day’s before the election, whatever.

I think middle voters who don't have strong opinions about either candidate will be unusually rare this election season.
 

Middle_Ground

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Just remember
October 6 2016 Access Hollywood tape comes out.
October 28 2016 Comey Letter comes out.

The only difference this time is the early and mail in part of the election is greater. Expect something about Biden in approx 2 weeks.

Why do you think Trumps fighting so hard on mail in voting. Whatever he has planned isn't ready just yet. Gotta stop all this mail in nonsense now.
 
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