• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Thread]

Chomsky

Chomsky

Social Democrat
DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 28, 2015
Messages
103,343
Reaction score
93,693
Location
Third Coast
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Thread]

(CNN)Tuesday marks the final special election before November, and a reliably Republican seat is once again at risk of switching parties.

Republican state Sen. Troy Balderson is fighting to maintain his party's three-decade hold on the Ohio 12th District, which spans north and east of Columbus.
Click to expand...

Source: (CNN) Ohio special election and primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state: What to watch

Reference: (538.com) Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election

Results: (NYT)Ohio Special Election Results: 12th Congressional District

Polls are about to close, in what may be a predictor of November's House results.

Enjoy!
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

And the polls close with no results posted and a status of "too early to call".

Turnout has been reported as very high, with both Dems & Repubs claiming this is good for them.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

I always expect Republicans to win Republican districts if turnout is high. You get ambushed with low turnout.

Trump became president because of low turnout because of a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

SonOfDaedalus;1068876858[B said:
]I always expect Republicans to win Republican districts if turnout is high.[/B] You get ambushed with low turnout.

Trump became president because of low turnout because of a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think I'd agree. My gut feeling says that the Repubs will pull this one out.

There will be lots of speculation based upon the point difference, though. And the wild card is whether Trump helped or hurt with his late campaigning? In a 2:1 Red to Blue district, it would seem to me he helped.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Here's a link to the Ohio Election Board:

(Ohio.gov) vote.ohio.gov
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Yeah, I think I'd agree. My gut feeling says that the Repubs will pull this one out.

There will be lots of speculation based upon the point difference, though. And the wild card is whether Trump helped or hurt with his late campaigning? In a 2:1 Red to Blue district, it would seem to me he helped.
Click to expand...

I kinda think the Dems got this. Should be interesting!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

The GOP has held the 12th district for 77 years. O’Connor is starting off the night with a big lead over Balderson. This will be huge if he finishes the night with a victory.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Source: (CNN) Ohio special election and primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state: What to watch

Reference: (538.com) Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election

Results: (NYT)Ohio Special Election Results: 12th Congressional District

Polls are about to close, in what may be a predictor of November's House results.

Enjoy!
Click to expand...
O'Conner's starting strong in the OH-12. Only 5% in, but he's doing what he needs to do to stand a chance. Really killing it in Franklin Co. Hillary won it 61-35. He's up 80-20. And it's the largest county in the district.

But Dems always lead in early votes and early counts. Still a good place to start.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Napoleon said:
The GOP has held the 12th district for 77 years. O’Connor is starting off the night with a big lead over Balderson. This will be huge if he finishes the night with a victory.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that's Columbus 'burbs.

Now with only 1% of the county reporting, one of the northern counties is only 55-45 to the Repubs. A good sign, since the R's need to pull better than that to offset Columbus, but 1% is not enough to establish a predictor.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

LincolnRossiter said:
O'Conner's starting strong in the OH-12. Only 5% in, but he's doing what he needs to do to stand a chance. Really killing it in Franklin Co. Hillary won it 61-35. He's up 80-20. And it's the largest county in the district.

But Dems always lead in early votes and early counts. Still a good place to start.
Click to expand...
That's a great split, but he needs turnout. It's all about turnout (given a reasonable split).
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

PoliSciXtina said:
I kinda think the Dems got this. Should be interesting!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It's too early to say, but I tend to agree that this looks like a repeat of past special elections.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
That's a great split, but he needs turnout. It's all about turnout (given a reasonable split).
Click to expand...
Turnout is high across the district. Just a matter of where. Conventional wisdom typically suggests that the GOP has a higher turnout in most midterm races. But when turnout is high across the board, it often benefits dems, who show up less in off years.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Early vote was expected to be dominant for O’Connor with E-Day vote dominant for Balderson. Difficult to tell whether the early votes is a sign of an O’Connor win or not.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Yeah, I think I'd agree. My gut feeling says that the Repubs will pull this one out.

There will be lots of speculation based upon the point difference, though. And the wild card is whether Trump helped or hurt with his late campaigning? In a 2:1 Red to Blue district, it would seem to me he helped.
Click to expand...
Disagree.

If Republicans survive it will be despite Trump's arson, not because of it.

Don't forget what happened in Virginia, Alabama, and Pennsylvania. Republicans had the poll numbers until Trump got involved, so don't be surprised if we have a repeat.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Yeah, but that's Columbus 'burbs.

Now with only 1% of the county reporting, one of the northern counties is only 55-45 to the Repubs. A good sign, since the R's need to pull better than that to offset Columbus, but 1% is not enough to establish a predictor.
Click to expand...

Yes, but the GOP has only held the district for so long because they gerrymandered the hell out of it with big twisted fingers that stretch almost to downtown Columbus. I know a guy who’s been pretty disgruntled all day because he can’t vote in this election but his neighbor in the next house over can. And then of course we’ve had voter suppression shenanigans in the mix today.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Napoleon said:
The GOP has held the 12th district for 77 years. O’Connor is starting off the night with a big lead over Balderson. This will be huge if he finishes the night with a victory.
Click to expand...

What did turnout look like at your precinct?
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Napoleon said:
Yes, but the GOP has only held the district for so long because they gerrymandered the hell out of it with big twisted fingers that stretch almost to downtown Columbus. I know a guy who’s been pretty disgruntled all day because he can’t vote in this election but his neighbor in the next house over can. And then of course we’ve had voter suppression shenanigans in the mix today.
Click to expand...

It was designed to protect Tiberi.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Go Danny Boy!
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

MovingPictures said:
Disagree.

If Republicans survive it will be despite Trump's arson, not because of it.

Don't forget what happened in Virginia, Alabama, and Pennsylvania. Republicans had the poll numbers until Trump got involved, so don't be surprised if we have a repeat.
Click to expand...
Here's why I disagree.

Dem enthusiasm was already high, so there's no loss in sending in Trump because the GOP lacked enthusiasm. And with a 2:1 R to D ratio, Trump will draw. He holds 90% among the GOP. If it was a 50/50 district I might agree with you here. But at 2:1, I see Trump helping.

And let's not forget they threw Pence & Ivanka at the district, too.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Here's why I disagree.

Dem enthusiasm was already high, so there's no loss in sending in Trump because the GOP lacked enthusiasm. And with a 2:1 R to D ratio, Trump will draw. He holds 90% among the GOP. If it was a 50/50 district I might agree with you here. But at 2:1, I see Trump helping.

And let's not forget they through Pence & Ivanka at the district, too.
Click to expand...

That makes sense. Your gut may be correct.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Seems kind a silly to me, these special elections, in a couple months they'll square off again.
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

SonOfDaedalus said:
I always expect Republicans to win Republican districts if turnout is high. You get ambushed with low turnout.

Trump became president because of low turnout because of a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary.
Click to expand...
JMO I think it was more than just a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton. There was also a lack of urgency on the left. They acted like it was going to a huge victory and I think many felt there vote was not critical.

I expect demo to turn out big the next few elections. I think it's going to be interesting to look at vote totals this year compared to previous elections. I think that's going to tell the tale of the country's mood.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

Chomsky said:
Yeah, I think I'd agree. My gut feeling says that the Repubs will pull this one out.

There will be lots of speculation based upon the point difference, though. And the wild card is whether Trump helped or hurt with his late campaigning? In a 2:1 Red to Blue district, it would seem to me he helped.
Click to expand...
Early yet but so far it 2:1 in favor of the dem

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
 
Re: Ohio special election & primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state [Live Threa

trouble13 said:
Early yet but so far it 2:1 in favor of the dem

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I467 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Urban / Suburban areas nearly always report quicker, due to higher technology.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom