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Ohio Reliably Red?

calamity

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0
 

Phys251

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0

I've been wondering about this. Seems as if several of the Sun Belt states are shifting bluer, while Ohio is shifting redder.

Dems can still win back the White House in 2020 without Ohio, especially if they pick up Arizona along the way, as long as they don't nominate some ultraliberal. If they do that then they'll struggle to win the state of Connecticut.
 

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0

Don’t really know much about either candidate, but is it really that weird that DeWine won considering he’d already won 4 statewide elections as Lt. Gov, Senator x2, and Attorney General? Clearly he’s appealed to the state for awhile.
 

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0

States change as people move, die and are added to the voter rolls. It wasn't that long ago Virginia was reliable red, now it's reliable blue. There aren't that many so called swing states left. 40 at least are almost pre-determined. I'd still classify Ohio as a swing state.

In quite a lot of states red or blue can be determined by turnout. Also people look at Governors and senators differently than president. Even Massachusetts will elect a Republican governor or senator every once in a blue moon as blue as that state is.
 

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I've been wondering about this. Seems as if several of the Sun Belt states are shifting bluer, while Ohio is shifting redder.

Dems can still win back the White House in 2020 without Ohio, especially if they pick up Arizona along the way, as long as they don't nominate some ultraliberal. If they do that then they'll struggle to win the state of Connecticut.

From what I understand many in Ohio attend college- university- have to move out of State for work. That leaves behind an older populace, also a positive for those that vote R as older people vote consistently. Another is Trump attracts lower educated voters.
Dems do better with college/university - higher educated voters in particular women.
 

calamity

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Don’t really know much about either candidate, but is it really that weird that DeWine won considering he’d already won 4 statewide elections as Lt. Gov, Senator x2, and Attorney General? Clearly he’s appealed to the state for awhile.

DeWine is from this general area (SW Ohio). And, he outperformed Senator Sherrod Brown in this region, winning urban Montgomery County by a few tenths of a percentage point. Sherrod won Mont Co by 11 points.

DeWine also picked up quite a few counties in the far Northern part of the state. Sherrod swept all the counties along Lake Erie, and he took a big chunk of NE Ohio, as well. DeWine made solid inroads in all of those counties, winning quite a few that went to Sherrod (per maps shown in the op).

So, yeah. Maybe it is familiarity that helped here. Both Sherrod and DeWine are household names in Ohio. Cordray is more popular around Columbus.

With the exception of one county, DeWine held the Trump line:

2018_gov_race_and_2016_prez_race_maps.jpg
 

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DeWine is from this general area (SW Ohio). And, he outperformed Senator Sherrod Brown in this region, winning urban Montgomery County by a few tenths of a percentage point. Sherrod won Mont Co by 11 points.

DeWine also picked up quite a few counties in the far Northern part of the state. Sherrod swept all the counties along Lake Erie, and he took a big chunk of NE Ohio, as well. DeWine made solid inroads in all of those counties, winning quite a few that went to Sherrod (per maps shown in the op).

So, yeah. Maybe it is familiarity that helped here. Both Sherrod and DeWine are household names in Ohio. Cordray is more popular around Columbus.

With the exception of one county, DeWine held the Trump line:

2018_gov_race_and_2016_prez_race_maps.jpg

So if it were a generic d canididate versus a generic R canididate who would win?
 

calamity

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From what I understand many in Ohio attend college- university- have to move out of State for work. That leaves behind an older populace, also a positive for those that vote R as older people vote consistently. Another is Trump attracts lower educated voters.
Dems do better with college/university - higher educated voters in particular women.

We actually attract the anomaly: college educated Republicans; due to the Air Force Base and all the defense related industry around it. There has to be several hundred thousand defense related college educated workers and entrepreneurs in SW Ohio, covering an area stretching up 50 miles north from Cincinnati.

Cincinnati too is reasonably high tech, and the suburbs around it are reliably Republican. Columbus suburbs are not much different: well educated and reliably Republican.
 
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calamity

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So if it were a generic d canididate versus a generic R canididate who would win?

My money would have to fall on the R, at this point. I suspect the generic candidate holds the Trump line, for the most part. But, a popular, or a well liked candidate can always swing it. If Ohio had a Beto kind of candidate, he would have won, for example.
 

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We actually attract the anomaly: college educated Republicans; due to the Air Force Base and all the defense related industry around it. There has to be several hundred thousand defense related college educated workers and entrepreneurs in SW Ohio, covering an area stretching up 50 miles north from Cincinnati.

Cincinnati too is reasonably high tech, and the suburbs around it are reliably Republican. Columbus suburbs are not much different: well educated and reliably Republican.

I suggest you dig into demographics for Ohio. Big State

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/ohio-population/
 

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So Ohio has a high population density that is disproportionate to the size of the state.

If I had to guess what is one of the major issues in Ohio politics it has to be urban decay.

Nope- age- education levels- older population, higher educated moving out of State for work has shifted the vote to a more Red than Blue State

The opposite is occurring in many Southern States
 

<alt>doxygen

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0

Appalachia... Still Trumpland. Oxy, disability, coal, and Trump.
 

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0
Ohio is a pragmatic state. Their statewide elected officials, whether they are Republicans or Democrats, are generally fairly moderate. I think it will remain a swing state to the extent Dems nominate people who appeal to independents.
 

calamity

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No it does not.

Sure it does. The counties which are growing (with educated people too) are the ones I described: burbs north of Cinci and Columbus.

Everyone knows the rust belt part of the state is emptying out. But, they do not know that the high tech sector is expanding in the area I mentioned above.
 

<alt>doxygen

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So why is one trying to tackle the issue of of addiction to pain medicine?

I don't believe I understand the question. Has there been a serious new effort on that front by the Trump admin?

Added money? Some. Sessions going after weed? Yes.

Any innovation? Not that I've seen.

The decay is everywhere in the rust belt.
 

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Are the days of Ohio serving as a swing state over?

Sure, we have a D senator who won by a fairly comfortable margin, but the GOP winning gubernatorial candidate was actually a bad candidate, far less qualified than the D challenger. But, that R behind the name gave him a fairly safe win.

House districts here are overwhelmingly R (75%). And, the state legislature is no better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/ohio/?utm_term=.a021217bf1e0
I'd move to Sweden if I were you. Or, at worst, Denmark.
 

Hari Seldon

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I've been wondering about this. Seems as if several of the Sun Belt states are shifting bluer, while Ohio is shifting redder.

Dems can still win back the White House in 2020 without Ohio, especially if they pick up Arizona along the way, as long as they don't nominate some ultraliberal. If they do that then they'll struggle to win the state of Connecticut.

I'm hoping for Bloomberg. I think he did a good job as Mayor of NYC and he is 10 times richer then 5 deferment cadet bone spurs. He would wipe the floor with him in any debate.
 

TurtleDude

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Sure it does. The counties which are growing (with educated people too) are the ones I described: burbs north of Cinci and Columbus.

Everyone knows the rust belt part of the state is emptying out. But, they do not know that the high tech sector is expanding in the area I mentioned above.

most of the business in Cincinnati (which is a big Democrat stronghold) are run by people who cannot vote in the city that their tax dollars fund. The big name Law firms in Cincinnati are run by partners who mainly live in Indian Hill (Hamilton County) Montgomery (Hamilton County) Wyoming (Hamilton county) but also in places like Mason (Warren County) West Chester (Butler County) and some of the richer areas of Northern Kentucky. Warren county went 66% for Steve Chabot in the recent election, while his Democrat challenger-Aftab Pureval, won Hamilton County by 10%. Lots of wealthy business leaders in Cincinnati tire of the leftwing council and have moved either to far better run (though often no cheaper) Hamilton county areas like Indian Hill (where multi million dollar estates are common) or to Warren and Clermont (15 miles East of down town Cincinnati) and Butler Counties. In Warren and Clermont counties, the GOP primary is often the real election for local offices like judges and commissioners
 

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I'm hoping for Bloomberg. I think he did a good job as Mayor of NYC and he is 10 times richer then 5 deferment cadet bone spurs. He would wipe the floor with him in any debate.

He's a pos who would energize most gun owners to do everything possible in terms of voting and donations to keep his control freak ass out of a national office
 

Hari Seldon

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He's a pos who would energize most gun owners to do everything possible in terms of voting and donations to keep his control freak ass out of a national office

That's your 1 big issue. Plenty of other issues. I think he would be great.
 

TurtleDude

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That's your 1 big issue. Plenty of other issues. I think he would be great.

he's a control freak-he's one of those rich elitists that so many liberals complain about but they seem to give him a pass because he wants to limit rights that liberals don't like. From trying to ban guns to preventing people from drinking soda pop, he's one of those assholes who thinks he is smarter than anyone else. And he's essentially a lying ass hole too. Anyone who thinks they know better than i do what I need for my own self defense is not someone I'd ever trust to hold office. and anyone who thinks he should tell people what they can drink or eat-that's too anal for me
 
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