New study says... Steep drop in crime due to more armed citizens...

[Black Dog]

Quick correction... I meant to say "in part" not the whole reason.

The number of concealed carry permit holders is likely much higher than 11.1
million because numbers are not available for all states that issue permits, such as
New York. Additionally, four states and the majority of Montana do not require
that residents have a concealed handgun permit to carry within the state so the
number of residents who carry a concealed weapon is not recorded.

The percent of the adult population with concealed handgun permits is
determined by how difficult it is to get the permits, how long the permits have
been available, and whether the government has discretion over who gets the
permit.

The report also examines the violent crime rate in relation to the rising
percentage of the adult population with concealed carry permits. Between 2007
and the preliminary estimates for 2013, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.4
per 100,000 – a 22 percent drop in the murder rate at the same time that the
percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 130 percent. Overall
violent crime also fell by 22 percent over that period of time - http://crimepreventionresearchcente...y-Permit-Holders-Across-the-United-States.pdf

 

[HonestJoe]

You should probably have read beyond the summary;

However, this is a much too simplistic of an approach. Despite their common use, simple cross-sectional comparisons can be very misleading. There are many factors that vary across places that explain differences in crime rates.

The current analysis doesn’t provide the sophisticated estimates provided with earlier analyses simply because the necessary data won’t be available for a couple years. Thus, it should only be viewed as suggestive.

That isn't to say there is no connection but it's certainly wrong to claim this report definitively states that is the case. To suggest that the reduced crime figures are entirely down to increased of concealed-carry permits is ridiculous as it would mean absolutely nothing else had any effect at all on those crime figures (or that all the other factors everywhere happened to exactly balance each other out).

 

[Kal'Stang]

You should probably have read beyond the summary;

That isn't to say there is no connection but it's certainly wrong to claim this report definitively states that is the case. To suggest that the reduced crime figures are entirely down to increased of concealed-carry permits is ridiculous as it would mean absolutely nothing else had any effect at all on those crime figures (or that all the other factors everywhere happened to exactly balance each other out).

Hence why he stated in his first line that "I meant to say "in part" not the whole reason."

 

[LaMidRighter]

Logically it makes perfect sense that more armed citizens creates a natural deterrent to crime. I've taken CJUS classes with good instructors at the college level for behavioral studies and known lots of officers in my time on this Earth and the common thread is that criminals look to the path of least resistance, they are typically cowards when they are faced with superior force, if a thug can attack a strongman or an elderly person who is obviously frail they will take on the latter, same with firearms owners, they won't openly attack those who can fight back. Concealed carry adds doubt to the equation, when it is known that people are disarmed the deterrent is practically nil, but when any potential victim could be an unknown threat those who are unarmed enjoy the benefit of the doubt because of those who are.

 

[1750Texan]

Hence why he stated in his first line that "I meant to say "in part" not the whole reason."

He should have said there is no credible evidence...

"In part" is as false a statement as "the whole reason".

The six states that allow people to carry concealed handguns without a permit have much lower murder and violent crime rates than the six states with the lowest permit rates. Indeed, the murder rate is 23 percent lower in the states without permits. The violent crime rate is 12 percent lower. The murder and violent crime rates are also lower in the 25 states with the highest permit rates compared to the rest of the US.

However, this is a much too simplistic of an approach. Despite their common use, simple cross-sectional comparisons can be very misleading. There are many factors that vary across places that explain differences in crime rates.

Unfortunately, it is often too difficult to account for them. A much better approach is to study how crime rates vary before and after changes in permit rules have occurred.

The current analysis doesn’t provide the sophisticated estimates provided with earlier analyses simply because the necessary data won’t be available for a couple years. Thus, it should only be viewed as suggestive.

The purpose of this report was not to show a correlation between rise in gun permits and a drop in crime...and even states that should not be done.

 

[Black Dog]

You should probably have read beyond the summary;

I did.

That isn't to say there is no connection but it's certainly wrong to claim this report definitively states that is the case. To suggest that the reduced crime figures are entirely down to increased of concealed-carry permits is ridiculous as it would mean absolutely nothing else had any effect at all on those crime figures (or that all the other factors everywhere happened to exactly balance each other out).

Obviously you were still reading the PDF when I posted the correction...

Quick correction... I meant to say "in part" not the whole reason. - http://www.debatepolitics.com/gun-c...e-due-more-armed-citizens.html#post1063514591

 

[Black Dog]

He should have said there is no credible evidence...

That would be a lie.

"In part" is as false a statement as "the whole reason".

Which is why I made the correction. It is however part of the reason. The evidence does show this.

The purpose of this report was not to show a correlation between rise in gun permits and a drop in crime...and even states that should not be done.

No one said it was a direct correlation. It is however part of the reason as the evidence shows.

 

[HonestJoe]

Obviously you were still reading the PDF when I posted the correction...

Yes, my post and your update crossed.

Even with the correction I don't think your post is quite correct. The report demonstrates no connection between the statistics at all and even accepts that the data for the correlation is incomplete. It does claim as "suggestive" that there could be some kind of connection but nothing else (and I feel the report itself pushes that a bit far).

Given how quickly some people will leap on incomplete data, casual statements in this debate and thread titles, I think there is a strong responsibility to take care when presenting evidence.

 

[notquiteright]

That would be a lie. Which is why I made the correction. It is however part of the reason. The evidence does show this. No one said it was a direct correlation. It is however part of the reason as the evidence shows.

Before I start let me say I have ZERO problem with allowing concealed carry, I just don't think it has more than a casual relationship with any reduction in crime. Just like Q-ships vs subs in WWII- the effort just escalated the level of initial attack.

Seems to me you have to be very selective on what cities you use to measure the 'armed citizen' effect.

Lets take Lawton OK, the shiny belt buckle in the Midwest Bible Belt. Obtaining a CCL is pretty easy, we are a 'shall issue' state. From 2000 to 2013 lets compare major crimes per 100,000....

Murder was 3.7 to 13.2- a dramatic increase
Robberies 144.9 vs 175.1- seems CCL doesn't hold robbery down.
Assaults 444.4 vs 704.6- again the increase flies in the face of most CON theories about a far more 'gun' friendly state

Burglaries and auto theft have just a tiny increase- both have little deterrent effect from armed citizens.

City Data ranks Lawton with a 537.7 the a national average is 301.1 so firearm ownership doesn't seem to help Lawton.

Want to compare Lawton to every CON's shining example of how bad firearm restrictions are- Chicago's crime rate in 2010 by 100,000's?

Murder 15.2, Robberies 501.6, Assaults 485.5

Let's use New York City 2000 to 2012 per 100,000-

Murder rate 8.7 to 5.1
Rapes 21 to 14
Robberies 420 to 243.7
Assaults 527.7 to 376.5
Burglaries 479.1 to 224.8
Auto theft 462.8 to 98.8

City Data ranking is 256.1

It is difficult to claim that easy access to a CCL has much, if any affect on violent crime when NYC is going down across the board and Lawton is rising or struggling to maintain the average. The average ranking is most telling. eace

 

[LagerHead]

He should have said there is no credible evidence...

"In part" is as false a statement as "the whole reason".



The purpose of this report was not to show a correlation between rise in gun permits and a drop in crime...and even states that should not be done.

This report may not show that, but Lott's earlier works do indeed show that there is a correlation between permissive gun laws and decreases in crime. So in actuality, this is a continuation of earlier work that showed exactly that.

 

[Black Dog]

Yes, my post and your update crossed.

Even with the correction I don't think your post is quite correct. The report demonstrates no connection between the statistics at all and even accepts that the data for the correlation is incomplete. It does claim as "suggestive" that there could be some kind of connection but nothing else (and I feel the report itself pushes that a bit far).

Given how quickly some people will leap on incomplete data, casual statements in this debate and thread titles, I think there is a strong responsibility to take care when presenting evidence.

Why is everyone acting like I did the study? I said here is the information and basically made a title. I gave no opinion one way or the other.

Is there a connection of some type to conceal carry and crime reduction? According to what I read yes. I don't know what the connection is or how it works... Not my line of work.

 

[Black Dog]

Before I start let me say I have ZERO problem with allowing concealed carry, I just don't think it has more than a casual relationship with any reduction in crime. Just like Q-ships vs subs in WWII- the effort just escalated the level of initial attack.

Seems to me you have to be very selective on what cities you use to measure the 'armed citizen' effect.

Lets take Lawton OK, the shiny belt buckle in the Midwest Bible Belt. Obtaining a CCL is pretty easy, we are a 'shall issue' state. From 2000 to 2013 lets compare major crimes per 100,000....

Murder was 3.7 to 13.2- a dramatic increase
Robberies 144.9 vs 175.1- seems CCL doesn't hold robbery down.
Assaults 444.4 vs 704.6- again the increase flies in the face of most CON theories about a far more 'gun' friendly state

Burglaries and auto theft have just a tiny increase- both have little deterrent effect from armed citizens.

City Data ranks Lawton with a 537.7 the a national average is 301.1 so firearm ownership doesn't seem to help Lawton.

Want to compare Lawton to every CON's shining example of how bad firearm restrictions are- Chicago's crime rate in 2010 by 100,000's?

Murder 15.2, Robberies 501.6, Assaults 485.5

Let's use New York City 2000 to 2012 per 100,000-

Murder rate 8.7 to 5.1
Rapes 21 to 14
Robberies 420 to 243.7
Assaults 527.7 to 376.5
Burglaries 479.1 to 224.8
Auto theft 462.8 to 98.8

City Data ranking is 256.1

It is difficult to claim that easy access to a CCL has much, if any affect on violent crime when NYC is going down across the board and Lawton is rising or struggling to maintain the average. The average ranking is most telling. eace

The PDF (study) nor I claimed that.

 

[HonestJoe]

Why is everyone acting like I did the study? I said here is the information and basically made a title. I gave no opinion one way or the other.

Your choice of title gave an opinion (why else would you have felt the need to change it?). I'm suggesting that title (even after the correction) was wrong in relation to what the report actually stated, certainly wrong relation to what the report proved. I just sought to correct that misunderstanding.

Is there a connection of some type to conceal carry and crime reduction? According to what I read yes. I don't know what the connection is or how it works... Not my line of work.

The report doesn't demonstrate a connection, it demonstrates a correlation. It suggests a connection but even that was, IMO, a stretch.

 

[Black Dog]

Your choice of title gave an opinion (why else would you have felt the need to change it?). I'm suggesting that title (even after the correction) was wrong in relation to what the report actually stated, certainly wrong relation to what the report proved. I just sought to correct that misunderstanding.

I disagree. It does point out a connection, it explained that other factors also contribute just as I stated.

The report doesn't demonstrate a connection, it demonstrates a correlation. It suggests a connection but even that was, IMO, a stretch.

Yes, in your opinion. The article indeed points out a connection. It does not however say this is the only cause and more data is needed.

 

[notquiteright]

The PDF (study) nor I claimed that.

Laughing- both the study and you are trying to make the claim armed citizens help produce a drop in crime but the benchmark city- New York City is experiencing a rather dramatic drop in crime while another city in a far more 'gun' friendly state struggles with increases and little if any decrease in major crimes.

You was trying to claim something until facts got in the way... eace

 

[Black Dog]

Laughing- both the study and you are trying to make the claim armed citizens help produce a drop in crime but the benchmark city- New York City is experiencing a rather dramatic drop in crime while another city in a far more 'gun' friendly state struggles with increases and little if any decrease in major crimes.

Returns laugh... You said...

It is difficult to claim that easy access to a CCL has much, if any affect on violent crime when NYC is going down across the board and Lawton is rising or struggling to maintain the average. The average ranking is most telling. - notquiteright

Neither I, nor the article claimed this.

You was trying to claim something until facts got in the way... eace

I said there is a connection between CCW carriers and dropping crime rates yes. The article also shows this, and it also says more data is needed and there are other contributing factors.

You are making claims no one but you made.

Nice try.

 

[TurtleDude]

That would be a lie.



Which is why I made the correction. It is however part of the reason. The evidence does show this.



No one said it was a direct correlation. It is however part of the reason as the evidence shows.

gun haters or those who hate conservatives who support gun rights are going to get upset at this because it destroys their lie that more guns carried by honest people=more crime. One thing we know for sure-people who carry weapons lawfully has not lead to the increase on violence with guns that assholes like Sarah Brady claimed would happen. That is what is really causing the lefties on this thread to belly ache: the predictions of their dear leaders were major failures

 

[HonestJoe]

Yes, in your opinion. The article indeed points out a connection. It does not however say this is the only cause and more data is needed.

It doesn't point out a connection. A connection would involve describing how more people carrying concealed weapons (or actually, more people holding permits to do so!) impacts murder or violent crime rates.

The report demonstrates a (general) correlation and goes on to suggest a connection but makes zero effort to back that up. In itself, this report achieves less than nothing (it's actually going down in my estimations each time I re-read it).

 

[notquiteright]

Returns laugh... You said...

It is difficult to claim that easy access to a CCL has much, if any affect on violent crime when NYC is going down across the board and Lawton is rising or struggling to maintain the average. The average ranking is most telling. - notquiteright

Neither I, nor the article claimed this. I said there is a connection between CCW carriers and dropping crime rates yes. The article also shows this, and it also says more data is needed and there are other contributing factors. You are making claims no one but you made. Nice try.

Ahhh you keep dodging the point to try and ooze away from your title of steep drop due to armed citizens.

The access to CCLs is the blue ribbon of firearm friendly... NYC is EXTREMELY restrictive on CCL while Lawton is very easy on granting CCLs. Lawton has some of the laxest firearm ownership regulations when compared to NYC, yet crime is on the increase while in NYC crime is dropping significantly.

I am laughing because you used such a misleading title to start this hot mess but are trying to nitpick me... :doh

Will this suit you.... it is difficult to claim any sort of armed citizen, from able to have a firearm in the home to concealed carry on the street, has a significant effect on crime rates.....

Or maybe... legally sanctioned easy access to firearms doesn't significantly lower the crime rate.

or how about... play with statistics long enough and they can be used to claim damn near anything- if you already believe the opening premise... :mrgreen:

 

[Black Dog]

It doesn't point out a connection. A connection would involve describing how more people carrying concealed weapons (or actually, more people holding permits to do so!) impacts murder or violent crime rates.

Oh really?

Thus, deterrence isn't just a matter of whether states have adopted right-to-carry laws. It very much depends on the percentage of the population with permits. The large majority of peer-reviewed academic research by economists
and criminologists concludes that permitted concealed handguns reduce violent crime. The debate is between those who claim that concealed handgun permits reduce crime and those who say it has no effect (for a survey see Lott, “What a balancing test will show for right-to-carry laws,” University of Maryland Law Review (2012): 1205-1218).

Looks like that is exactly what it is saying.

The report demonstrates a (general) correlation and goes on to suggest a connection but makes zero effort to back that up. In itself, this report achieves less than nothing (it's actually going down in my estimations each time I re-read it).

Again that is just your opinion and carries little weight in terms of what it says. You didn't even get that right.

 

[Black Dog]

Ahhh you keep dodging the point to try and ooze away from your title of steep drop due to armed citizens.

Not dodging anything. Pointing out you were wrong.

The access to CCLs is the blue ribbon of firearm friendly... NYC is EXTREMELY restrictive on CCL while Lawton is very easy on granting CCLs. Lawton has some of the laxest firearm ownership regulations when compared to NYC, yet crime is on the increase while in NYC crime is dropping significantly.

You are trying to do exactly what the study said not to do...

The six states that allow people to carry concealed handguns without a permit have much lower murder and violent crime rates than the six states with the lowest permit rates. Indeed, the murder rate is 23 percent lower in the states without permits. The violent crime rate is 12 percent lower. The murder and violent crime rates are also lower in the 25 states with the highest permit rates compared to the rest of the US.

However, this is a much too simplistic of an approach. Despite their common use, simple cross-sectional comparisons can be very misleading. There are many factors that vary across places that explain differences in crime rates.

Unfortunately, it is often too difficult to account for them. A much better approach is to study how crime rates vary before and after changes in permit rules have occurred.

The current analysis doesn’t provide the sophisticated estimates provided with earlier analyses simply because the necessary data won’t be available for a couple years. Thus, it should only be viewed as suggestive.

Wanna try again?

I am laughing because you used such a misleading title to start this hot mess but are trying to nitpick me... :doh

A title I corrected and you tried to nitpick. :doh

Will this suit you.... it is difficult to claim any sort of armed citizen, from able to have a firearm in the home to concealed carry on the street, has a significant effect on crime rates.....

Or maybe... legally sanctioned easy access to firearms doesn't significantly lower the crime rate.

or how about... play with statistics long enough and they can be used to claim damn near anything- if you already believe the opening premise... :mrgreen:

No. It is pretty clear and I have shown your opinion to be invalid.

 

[Black Dog]

gun haters or those who hate conservatives who support gun rights are going to get upset at this because it destroys their lie that more guns carried by honest people=more crime. One thing we know for sure-people who carry weapons lawfully has not lead to the increase on violence with guns that assholes like Sarah Brady claimed would happen. That is what is really causing the lefties on this thread to belly ache: the predictions of their dear leaders were major failures

You really want to pop there heads? According to the statistics... In Texas you are 6 times more likely to be the victim of violent gun crime from law enforcement than a CCW carrier. 12 times higher in Florida.

 

[TurtleDude]

You really want to pop there heads? According to the statistics... In Texas you are 6 times more likely to be the victim of violent gun crime from law enforcement than a CCW carrier. 12 times higher in Florida.

that's because most CCW permit holders are better skilled than cops when it comes to guns

 

[Black Dog]

that's because most CCW permit holders are better skilled than cops when it comes to guns

I would not go that far, you could be right though... What the stats are talking about is the fact police are more prone to violent criminal acts than your average CCW carrier. When you look at the amount of police in said state vs the CCW population, the stats are even scarier. I am not saying all cops are bad, or that even a significant number are. Just saying 90%+ of those who legally own guns are not the problem.

It just goes to show you absolute power corrupts absolutely.

 

[notquiteright]

Not dodging anything. Pointing out you were wrong. You are trying to do exactly what the study said not to do... The six states that allow people to carry concealed handguns without a permit have much lower murder and violent crime rates than the six states with the lowest permit rates. Indeed, the murder rate is 23 percent lower in the states without permits. The violent crime rate is 12 percent lower. The murder and violent crime rates are also lower in the 25 states with the highest permit rates compared to the rest of the US. However, this is a much too simplistic of an approach. Despite their common use, simple cross-sectional comparisons can be very misleading. There are many factors that vary across places that explain differences in crime rates. Unfortunately, it is often too difficult to account for them. A much better approach is to study how crime rates vary before and after changes in permit rules have occurred. The current analysis doesn’t provide the sophisticated estimates provided with earlier analyses simply because the necessary data won’t be available for a couple years. Thus, it should only be viewed as suggestive. Wanna try again? A title I corrected and you tried to nitpick. No. It is pretty clear and I have shown your opinion to be invalid.

Oh you're ducking and dodging like crazy... YOU used the false title and then nitpick a response that uses CCL states as the blue ribbon firearm friendly states to show the 'study' is flawed. The study uses a small set of factors to form casual relationships rather than factual ones as the comparison of Lawton OK to NYC shows. You have to be very selective and ignore overall trends in crime rate. To use your 'logic' Lawton should have far lower rates per 100,000 in violent crime as we have had a very long period of lax firearm regulations than highly restrictive NYC. (2nd A ardent supporters love to point to NYC as an unarmed population at the mercy of armed thugs and gangs and yet a very armed city has a far higher crime rate when using the per 100,000 population yardstick :doh )

The real bottom line is this 'study' is pointless, just a bit of fodder for the 2nd A ranters to convince themselves their preconceived notion is true.

A real study would have to look at so much more than firearm ownership percentage and number of those conceal carrying. But as your rather partisan and very false title shows, most 2nd A partisans really don't care about how well the facts support their opinion... eace