New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere [W:152]

[iguanaman]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

One hypothesis is that CO2 actually has no significant effect, and changes are due to changing absolute humidity. The tropics might be already saturated in not being able to have more warming.

Warming is the greatest in the polar regions, where the absolute humidity is the least and changes the most, and effectively nonexistent in equatorial areas.

A 3rd grader knows that humidity is a function of temperature. The warmer the air the more water will get dissolved in it.

 

[Risky Thicket]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

I am always a bit skeptical with any bold new claim by someone claiming to have spotted something
no one else has. Lets look at a few thing, first the paper itself rather than an article about the paper.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/5/054007/pdf/erl_10_5_054007.pdf

So Sherwood claims there is a hot spot over the tropics at about 30,000',
that has warmed at between 0.25–0.3 K/decade since ether 1979 or 1959.
Yet the RSS has been sensing that range (TTS) since about 1985,
and shows warming of only .008 K/decade.
RSS / MSU and AMSU Data / Time Series Trend Browser
The question should become, How is the RSS (TTS) off by more than a factor of 2, when
the same process for TTL yielded a good correlation with ground stations up till 1998?

How's the climate change denial working out for you in Texas about now?

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

Rising Seas - Interactive: If All The Ice Melted
the sheffield that would be flooded?
or another one?

What is the time line on have ALL of the ice melted?

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

Actually I ran the Standard deviation from 1979 on the four major data sets.
View attachment 67185049
Even the .06 C of warming calculated by the GISS since 1998 is well within their own standard deviation of .18 C.

It's nice that there are some brainy-type people in this forum.

Thank you!

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

Why did you give us an intellectually dishonest graph , that to boot, undermines your own point?

You don't seem to like this particular site.

Can you present a graph that shows all of the same data from a site that you DO like?

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

A 3rd grader knows that humidity is a function of temperature. The warmer the air the more water will get dissolved in it.

How does that respond to the post you have attached to?

 

[Jack Hays]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

You don't seem to like this particular site.

Can you present a graph that shows all of the same data from a site that you DO like?

SK doesn't like data.

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

How's the climate change denial working out for you in Texas about now?

I see...

You from the school that if we anger the AGW Gods, they will make it rain on us.

Should the folks in Texas sacrifice a virgin to stop the rain. Is there a volcano in Houston they could throw her into?

Horrible way to treat an 8 year old.

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

SK doesn't like data.

Most AGW proponents do not.

 

[SlevinKelevra]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

You don't seem to like this particular site.

Can you present a graph that shows all of the same data from a site that you DO like?

It's not the site. It's that you pick and choose different start dates. That you hide some trend lines.

Plot them ALL starting on the 1997.33 date that some use. What happens?: oh 6 positive slopes and one negative one. But.... you knew that

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

It's not the site. It's that you pick and choose different start dates. That you hide some trend lines.

Plot them ALL starting on the 1997.33 date that some use. What happens?: oh 6 positive slopes and one negative one. But.... you knew that

I'm pretty sure we've gone over this before.

The particular page that I linked is constructed by someone else and is updated all the time. Anyone can go the actual site and construct this in any way they desire. It takes a little time and for purposes of this forum, using that particular page is useful.

I did nothing except link to it. I picked nothing. I arranged nothing. I linked. That's it.

If you would like to kill a half hour or so, you are certainly welcome to use the same site, start and end at different times and prove your point, whatever that may be.

Have at it!

Is there anything else I can say to help clarify this for you?

 

[longview]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

How's the climate change denial working out for you in Texas about now?

I am not denying anything, and while the weather has been bad, it has not been all that unusual.

 

[iguanaman]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

I am not denying anything, and while the weather has been bad, it has not been all that unusual.

I believe setting all time records for rainfall means that is at least "unusual".

 

[SlevinKelevra]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

I'm pretty sure we've gone over this before.

we have, which is why it's so insane you trotted it out again, thinking you wouldn't get called out?

The particular page that I linked is constructed by someone else and is updated all the time. Anyone can go the actual site and construct this in any way they desire. It takes a little time and for purposes of this forum, using that particular page is useful.

no, using the page is not useful. look at the link

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

do you see these from:1234.56 in the link?
those are the starting points for each data set, that YOU CAN SELECT.

further, do you see trend/plot vs just plot?
guess what, those are also things that YOU CAN SELECT.

Now, perhaps typing a URL is difficult. Lucky for you, the authors provide form boxes

You can see this here

See where it says "Value" The # you type there (date, in year.fraction) goes into that nasty looking url above. Just like to the immediate left, you can click in box2 to add the Trendline.

So, WHY would you pass off something
that MIXES AND MATCHES plotting trends or not
that MIXES AND MATCHES plotting from the same starting point of time?

Could it be because....

I did nothing except link to it. I picked nothing. I arranged nothing. I linked. That's it.

You chose it to represent your opinion (a "halt") because it has been constructed to do so in an intellectually dishonest way? It seems so.

If you would like to kill a half hour or so, you are certainly welcome to use the same site, start and end at different times and prove your point, whatever that may be.

Have at it!

It doesn't take 30 minutes to paste 1997.33 into 14 boxes (consistency) and click the missing Trendline boxes. 30 seconds ? Yes, that it does require. Honestly it took longer to type and format this response.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Look, just as I said earlier, why did the plots suddenly stop showing so much "pause {or hault}"

? Hmmm... WHY indeed.

Is there anything else I can say to help clarify this for you?

At this point in time, I think not. I actually UNDERSTAND what's happening.

 

[Phys251]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

What's threatening them, a tsunami?
A snail could move faster than sea level rise if it rose 100 times quicker than it is now.

What bits of the world do you think are at risk from a 1 foot sea level rise?

How much do you think it will take to protect such areas?

Show some science that supports you ideas of doom or understand that you are looking for a problem that is not there.

Don't let the facts get in your way, boys. And Earthling, you don't need to use big-ass fonts to try to get your points across. FIFY.

 

[Phys251]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

we have, which is why it's so insane you trotted it out again, thinking you wouldn't get called out?



no, using the page is not useful. look at the link

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

do you see these from:1234.56 in the link?
those are the starting points for each data set, that YOU CAN SELECT.

further, do you see trend/plot vs just plot?
guess what, those are also things that YOU CAN SELECT.

Now, perhaps typing a URL is difficult. Lucky for you, the authors provide form boxes

You can see this here

See where it says "Value" The # you type there (date, in year.fraction) goes into that nasty looking url above. Just like to the immediate left, you can click in box2 to add the Trendline.

So, WHY would you pass off something
that MIXES AND MATCHES plotting trends or not
that MIXES AND MATCHES plotting from the same starting point of time?

Could it be because....



You chose it to represent your opinion (a "halt") because it has been constructed to do so in an intellectually dishonest way? It seems so.


It doesn't take 30 minutes to paste 1997.33 into 14 boxes (consistency) and click the missing Trendline boxes. 30 seconds ? Yes, that it does require. Honestly it took longer to type and format this response.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Look, just as I said earlier, why did the plots suddenly stop showing so much "pause {or hault}"

? Hmmm... WHY indeed.



At this point in time, I think not. I actually UNDERSTAND what's happening.

Great post. Sadly, code1211 won't give an open-minded, intelligent response to this, because he can't.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

We are still at levels of TSI higher than the historical levels as calculated by the experts.

The climate does not turn like a sports car. It turns like a steam ship.

You should probably expend time time and effort on this. You seem to be spending all of your time and effort on ignoring it.


LISIRD - Historical Total Solar Irradiance

FYI, I'm more familiar with steam ships than most - I used to run one of the steam propulsion plants on the USS Ranger. If it's powered by steam, I do have a clue. The engine room was a hot, sweaty, greasy, incredibly noisy place...and sometimes it was a heck of a lot of fun. I do have a few sea stories....

Anyway, your statement that the climate does not turn like a sports car, but instead like a steam ship is true...in human years. In geologic time, however, the sudden upswing in global temperature is very sharp turn indeed. And if you'd really look at the graph from your reference, it backs up precisely what I've been saying all along. At the very end of the century, the TSI took a big dip, down to levels we hadn't seen in seventy years...yet our planet did not cool.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

Perhaps you should reveal your secret cache of data that is seemingly unknown to all of the data collection agencies on THIS planet.

It's interesting that in the sadly politicized GISS Data, they have found warming where nobody else can find it.

Are you really Dr. Hansen?

And you know what? When you cherry-pick the data (like restricting your data to relatively recent periods), you tend to miss things. But if one takes a longer view (in this case, from 1950 to the present), using the EXACT SAME datasets you used, what does one find? The warming trends you say aren't there:

 

[Tim the plumber]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

Originally Posted by Earthling View Post
What's threatening them, a tsunami?
A snail could move faster than sea level rise if it rose 100 times quicker than it is now.

Quote Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
What bits of the world do you think are at risk from a 1 foot sea level rise?

How much do you think it will take to protect such areas?

Show some science that supports you ideas of doom or understand that you are looking for a problem that is not there.

Don't let the facts get in your way, boys. And Earthling, you don't need to use big-ass fonts to try to get your points across. FIFY.

WHAT FACTS!!!!!

Just try to answer the question. What is it that you think is going to cause trouble????

By not answering you put yourself into the same catagory as 3goofs; unable to deal with any science what so ever.

 

[Tim the plumber]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

FYI, I'm more familiar with steam ships than most - I used to run one of the steam propulsion plants on the USS Ranger. If it's powered by steam, I do have a clue. The engine room was a hot, sweaty, greasy, incredibly noisy place...and sometimes it was a heck of a lot of fun. I do have a few sea stories....

Anyway, your statement that the climate does not turn like a sports car, but instead like a steam ship is true...in human years. In geologic time, however, the sudden upswing in global temperature is very sharp turn indeed. And if you'd really look at the graph from your reference, it backs up precisely what I've been saying all along. At the very end of the century, the TSI took a big dip, down to levels we hadn't seen in seventy years...yet our planet did not cool.

How often do I have to ask a question for any of you to answer it???

To what degree do you think solar varibility has reduced the heat recieved by the Earth?

If this is the case what evidence do you see that shows that the period 1970 to 1998 where warming took place was the result of human activity and not solar fluctuations. I am assuming that you understand that there will be a lag between the changes in solar activity and temperature here on Earth.

Please answer this. It should be easy if you know as much as you say you do.

I don't know the answers to these questions. I don't debate the finer points of such things. I just point out that the worst case scenarios were never, in my view, scary and now after the last 18 years of data the worst case scenarios must have been reduced in heating. So I expect that it is untenable to argue that there can be any sort of temperature rise beyond 1 degree by 2100. Do you agree with that? Please answer at least one of these question.

 

[longview]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

I believe setting all time records for rainfall means that is at least "unusual".

No where near the all time record rainfall, that would be 1979, I think the tropical storm was Claudette.
After 35 years, Alvin still holds U.S. record for most rain in one day - Houston Chronicle

On July 25, 1979, Tropical Storm Claudette arrived in Alvin and settled in, dropping 43 inches over the next 24 hours. That amount still stands as the greatest one-day rainfall in the United States, according to the National Weather Service.

 

[Phys251]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

WHAT FACTS!!!!!

The denialists' obstinateness summed up in two words, complete with all-caps. Well done.

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

we have, which is why it's so insane you trotted it out again, thinking you wouldn't get called out?



no, using the page is not useful. look at the link

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

do you see these from:1234.56 in the link?
those are the starting points for each data set, that YOU CAN SELECT.

further, do you see trend/plot vs just plot?
guess what, those are also things that YOU CAN SELECT.

Now, perhaps typing a URL is difficult. Lucky for you, the authors provide form boxes

You can see this here

See where it says "Value" The # you type there (date, in year.fraction) goes into that nasty looking url above. Just like to the immediate left, you can click in box2 to add the Trendline.

So, WHY would you pass off something
that MIXES AND MATCHES plotting trends or not
that MIXES AND MATCHES plotting from the same starting point of time?

Could it be because....



You chose it to represent your opinion (a "halt") because it has been constructed to do so in an intellectually dishonest way? It seems so.


It doesn't take 30 minutes to paste 1997.33 into 14 boxes (consistency) and click the missing Trendline boxes. 30 seconds ? Yes, that it does require. Honestly it took longer to type and format this response.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Look, just as I said earlier, why did the plots suddenly stop showing so much "pause {or hault}"

? Hmmm... WHY indeed.



At this point in time, I think not. I actually UNDERSTAND what's happening.

You obviously do not.

Thank you for you once again insane review of your non-sensical view of the world.

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

FYI, I'm more familiar with steam ships than most - I used to run one of the steam propulsion plants on the USS Ranger. If it's powered by steam, I do have a clue. The engine room was a hot, sweaty, greasy, incredibly noisy place...and sometimes it was a heck of a lot of fun. I do have a few sea stories....

Anyway, your statement that the climate does not turn like a sports car, but instead like a steam ship is true...in human years. In geologic time, however, the sudden upswing in global temperature is very sharp turn indeed. And if you'd really look at the graph from your reference, it backs up precisely what I've been saying all along. At the very end of the century, the TSI took a big dip, down to levels we hadn't seen in seventy years...yet our planet did not cool.

The warming stopped.

It may begin to cool and it amy not. We will see.

The point is that the AGW proponents claim very passionately that the main driver of Climate is the anthropogenic CO2 in the air.

It is increasing at the same or faster rate than in the preceding 2o years and yet the warming has slowed markedly.

It's okay to see this. It is what the data records are showing you.

Does it interest you at all that before the temperature began its "very sharp turn" upward that it had completed its very sharp turn downward and was lower than it had been for centuries?

It is pretty obvious that we were unusually cool in terms of this interglacial in about 1600 and now have recovered to about the average of this interglacial.

We are still not as warm as the warmest point of this interglacial

 

[code1211]

Re: New study finds a hot spot in the atmosphere

And you know what? When you cherry-pick the data (like restricting your data to relatively recent periods), you tend to miss things. But if one takes a longer view (in this case, from 1950 to the present), using the EXACT SAME datasets you used, what does one find? The warming trends you say aren't there:

View attachment 67185057

The chart I posted does not intended to claim that warming has never occurred. It is intended to show that warming is in a pause.

Why is this concept so difficult for you and Slevin and Phys to grasp?

It is not a difficult idea unless your mind is completely closed to any idea that is not a part of your biased world view.

Why limit your review to 50 years or 150 years or 1000 years. Why not check this interglacial? Why not check the temperature peak of all interglacials?

You are saying that this level of warmth in our climate is both unprecedented and very dangerous to mankind.

I am only asking why you think this.