Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

[Lord Tammerlain]

Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency", as birth rates continue to plummet.

www.bbc.com

Japan is rapidly aging and rapidly dying

Having 4 million homes abandoned over the last two decades is rather shocking, i have seen video of homes in remote areas of Japan being sold for less than $100 000 USD that while 30 years old or so are still in good condition, but cant find any buyers

Japan recorded 686,061 births - the lowest number since records began in 1899 - while nearly 1.6 million people died, meaning for every baby born, more than two people died.

It marks the 16th consecutive year of population decline with the squeeze being felt by the nation's pension and healthcare systems.

The number of foreign residents reached a record high of 3.6 million people as of 1 January 2025, however, representing nearly 3% of Japan's population.

The government has tentatively embraced foreign labour by launching a digital nomad visa and upskilling initiatives, but immigration remains politically fraught in the largely conservative country.

The overall population of the country declined by 0.44 percent from 2023 to about 124.3 million at the start of the year.

Elderly people aged 65 and over now make up nearly 30% of the population - the second-highest proportion in the world after Monaco, according to the World Bank. The working-age population, defined as those between 15 and 64, has dropped to about 60%.

A growing number of towns and villages are hollowing out, with nearly four million homes abandoned over the past two decades, government data released last year showed.

 

[Gozaburo]

Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency", as birth rates continue to plummet.

www.bbc.com

Japan is rapidly aging and rapidly dying

Having 4 million homes abandoned over the last two decades is rather shocking, i have seen video of homes in remote areas of Japan being sold for less than $100 000 USD that while 30 years old or so are still in good condition, but cant find any buyers

Shrinking birth rates seem to be a phenomenon observed world wide, which I think ultimately is a good thing.

The scary prospect is there seems to be a shortage of thinkers who are considering how we can negotiate this phenomenon while maintaining an economic system of heavily financialized liberal capitalism which is built on the assumption of infinite growth.

 

[Questerr]

Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency", as birth rates continue to plummet.

www.bbc.com

Japan is rapidly aging and rapidly dying

Having 4 million homes abandoned over the last two decades is rather shocking, i have seen video of homes in remote areas of Japan being sold for less than $100 000 USD that while 30 years old or so are still in good condition, but cant find any buyers

Japan is exceedingly capitalist. Cutthroat and with extremely toxic working environments and a toxic business culture that has spread through their whole culture.

Cost of living is high, people are worked to death, and lots of people see no hope for a better future.

Why would they want to have kids?

 

[Loulit01]

Japan is exceedingly capitalist. Cutthroat and with extremely toxic working environments and a toxic business culture that has spread through their whole culture.

Cost of living is high, people are worked to death, and lots of people see no hope for a better future.

Why would they want to have kids?

The total fertility rate is a small number with big consequences.

It measures how many babies, on average, each woman will have over her lifetime. And for a population to remain stable - flat, no growth, no decline - women, on average, have to have 2.1 kids.

In the U.S., that number is 1.6, and dropping. It's driving a new political debate about what – if anything – can be done about it.

The same thing is happening across much of Western Europe.

This is a huge problem but we're busy worried about redistricting, and immigration (which we desperately need), and transgender people in the military, and a ballroom for the White House...

 

[Individual]

Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency", as birth rates continue to plummet.

www.bbc.com

Japan is rapidly aging and rapidly dying

Having 4 million homes abandoned over the last two decades is rather shocking, i have seen video of homes in remote areas of Japan being sold for less than $100 000 USD that while 30 years old or so are still in good condition, but cant find any buyers

Perhaps some renters could be found to occupy them if the rent was low enough.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency", as birth rates continue to plummet.

www.bbc.com

Japan is rapidly aging and rapidly dying

Having 4 million homes abandoned over the last two decades is rather shocking, i have seen video of homes in remote areas of Japan being sold for less than $100 000 USD that while 30 years old or so are still in good condition, but cant find any buyers

They aren't having children because so many Japanese have decided to forego relationships and sex altogether.
Difficult as it may be to believe, it's apparently very difficult to meet, get to know and enter into a warm and lasting relationship in Japan.
It's even difficult to just get laid.
The work ethic is so over the top that people seem to have decided it's the only worthwhile activity.

 

[Loulit01]

They aren't having children because so many Japanese have decided to forego relationships and sex altogether.
Difficult as it may be to believe, it's apparently very difficult to meet, get to know and enter into a warm and lasting relationship in Japan.
It's even difficult to just get laid.
The work ethic is so over the top that people seem to have decided it's the only worthwhile activity.

The work ethic and the schooling and study ethic that leads to worthwhile jobs.

Japanese students are faced with immense pressure to succeed academically from their parents, teachers, peers, and society. This is largely a result of a society that has long placed a great amount of importance on education, and a system that places all of its weight upon a single examination that has significant life-long consequences. This pressure has led to behaviors such as school violence, cheating, suicide, and significant psychological harm. In some cases, students have experienced nervous breakdowns that have required hospitalization as young as twelve. In 1991, it was reported that 1,333 people in the age group of 15–24 had killed themselves, much of which was due to academic pressure. In an international perspective, teenage suicide rates are close to the OECD average and below those of the United States.<a A survey by the Education Ministry showed that students at public schools were involved in a record number of violent incidents in 2007: 52,756 cases, an increase of some 8,000 on the previous year. In almost 7,000 of these incidents, teachers were the victims of assault.

Education in Japan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

The work ethic and the schooling and study ethic that leads to worthwhile jobs.

Japanese students are faced with immense pressure to succeed academically from their parents, teachers, peers, and society. This is largely a result of a society that has long placed a great amount of importance on education, and a system that places all of its weight upon a single examination that has significant life-long consequences. This pressure has led to behaviors such as school violence, cheating, suicide, and significant psychological harm. In some cases, students have experienced nervous breakdowns that have required hospitalization as young as twelve. In 1991, it was reported that 1,333 people in the age group of 15–24 had killed themselves, much of which was due to academic pressure. In an international perspective, teenage suicide rates are close to the OECD average and below those of the United States.<a A survey by the Education Ministry showed that students at public schools were involved in a record number of violent incidents in 2007: 52,756 cases, an increase of some 8,000 on the previous year. In almost 7,000 of these incidents, teachers were the victims of assault.

Education in Japan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Similar issues with the German Abitur, but at least in Germany people set aside some personal time for themselves and family, or so it would seem.

 

[Loulit01]

Similar issues with the German Abitur, but at least in Germany people set aside some personal time for themselves and family, or so it would seem.

Western Europe has paid family leave, mandatory vacation, childcare is generally more affordable than in the U.S., and universal healthcare. Doesn't seem to help the birthrate much. In the E.U. the birthrate is 1.38. No country in the E.U. has a birthrate of at least 1.9.

It appears the higher the standard of living, the lower the birthrate, more or less.

I remember watching I Claudius on PBS in the late 70s. Augustus, the first Emperor or Rome, saw the declining birthrate among Roman citizens as a huge problem and strove to raise it. It's a great series and the Robert Graves books it's based on are fantastic.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Japan is exceedingly capitalist. Cutthroat and with extremely toxic working environments and a toxic business culture that has spread through their whole culture.

Cost of living is high, people are worked to death, and lots of people see no hope for a better future.

Why would they want to have kids?

If your life is only about money and capitalism, what’s the point of living at all. What gives meaning is community, relationships, etc.

 

[Loulit01]

If your life is only about money and capitalism, what’s the point of living at all. What gives meaning is community, relationships, etc.

Community, relationships, etc., have taken major hits in the last few decades.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Community, relationships, etc., have taken major hits in the last few decades.

As things turn into venues to make money, they ironically lose their value.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Western Europe has paid family leave, mandatory vacation, childcare is generally more affordable than in the U.S., and universal healthcare. Doesn't seem to help the birthrate much. In the E.U. the birthrate is 1.38. No country in the E.U. has a birthrate of at least 1.9.

It appears the higher the standard of living, the lower the birthrate, more or less.

I remember watching I Claudius on PBS in the late 70s. Augustus, the first Emperor or Rome, saw the declining birthrate among Roman citizens as a huge problem and strove to raise it. It's a great series and the Robert Graves books it's based on are fantastic.

I think @Slartibartfast and @Loulit01 are right about the lack of community more than JUST standard of living.
We have neighborhoods right here in Los Angeles that enjoy a lovely standard of living and they are bursting with kids.
Same goes for the most affluent sections of Greater MD and DC....some of the elementary and middle schools that were shut down in the 80's are being reopened or rebuilt right now.

Walter Johnson High School, my old Maryland alma mater was made to take in the student body from nearby Woodward High and they even had to change the sports team from Spartans to Wildcats.
Now Woodward is reopening and WJ is going back to The Spartans.

I really do think societal stress and the crumbling sense of community is a larger factor along with a general feeling of malaise and hopelessness.
My own neice and her husband refuse to have children, specifically citing hopelessness more than costs...they are very successful and live in Santa Clarita, a very affluent section of SoCal.

 

[dseag2]

The immigration rate in Japan is 2.4%. If their own residents aren't having kids who will pick up the slack?

One more reason we need immigrants in the US. In some schools near our neighborhood, I see a lot more Brown kids than White kids being picked up by their parents. I look at it as more young people to fill jobs in the future. If not for this, the US would be a shit-show as well.

 

[Questerr]

If your life is only about money and capitalism, what’s the point of living at all. What gives meaning is community, relationships, etc.

That’s what lots of people in Japan ask themselves and their suicide rate reflects it.

 

[Metric Mouse]

Similar issues with the German Abitur, but at least in Germany people set aside some personal time for themselves and family, or so it would seem.

Wait until you find out how low the fertility rate is in Germany...

Seems no one wants to get laid in that country either.

 

[uptower]

Perhaps some renters could be found to occupy them if the rent was low enough.

Outside of Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya (and lately Fukuoka thanks to foreign buyers) it is cheap enough.

Sendai, Sapporo, Nagano, Matsumoto, lots of affordable, livable cities, especially in outlying suburbs. Country towns? Less attractive because of a lack of amenities. A dying town is hard to revive, but some will do okay.

I think what @Gozaburo said about population decline being common in the first world is generally true. The economic structure needs to adapt. That decline will level off (in Japan's case at about half by the end of the century) and then they get a more spacious, livable country for everyone.

The hard part is adjusting to having fewer workers support more retirees till they eventually pass. The rate of workforce replacement is obviously down.

 

[Individual]

Outside of Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya (and lately Fukuoka thanks to foreign buyers) it is cheap enough.

Sendai, Sapporo, Nagano, Matsumoto, lots of affordable, livable cities, especially in outlying suburbs. Country towns? Less attractive because of a lack of amenities. A dying town is hard to revive, but some will do okay.

I think what @Gozaburo said about population decline being common in the first world is generally true. The economic structure needs to adapt. That decline will level off (in Japan's case at about half by the end of the century) and then they get a more spacious, livable country for everyone.

The hard part is adjusting to having fewer workers support more retirees till they eventually pass. The rate of workforce replacement is obviously down.

The choice as I see it is between resolving or perpetuating the issue.
In the U.S. the Social Security funding issue could easily be resolved permanently by eliminating the FICA tax and associated Trust fund, beginning the progressive Federal income tax rates with a 15% rate, and simply paying the benefits from the general revenue fund, which would also make the tax rate comparison paid by each quintile much more meaningful.

 

[uptower]

The choice as I see it is between resolving or perpetuating the issue.
In the U.S. the Social Security funding issue could easily be resolved permanently by eliminating the FICA tax and associated Trust fund, beginning the progressive Federal income tax rates with a 15% rate, and simply paying the benefits from the general revenue fund, which would also make the tax rate comparison paid by each quintile much more meaningful.

Of course everyone would have to pay taxes. As it is they don't. And that works better in a growing population like America. In Japan everyone does pay taxes, even the rich, and its still not enough to cover a population of pensioners too large for the workforce.

 

[Individual]

Of course everyone would have to pay taxes. As it is they don't. And that works better in a growing population like America. In Japan everyone does pay taxes, even the rich, and its still not enough to cover a population of pensioners too large for the workforce.

Don't know the details of Japans social security system, but IMO population growth should be based more on labor needs and pension payment revenue on tax rates which can be raised and/or lowered as a result of needs.

 

[Lursa]

Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency", as birth rates continue to plummet.

www.bbc.com

Japan is rapidly aging and rapidly dying

Having 4 million homes abandoned over the last two decades is rather shocking, i have seen video of homes in remote areas of Japan being sold for less than $100 000 USD that while 30 years old or so are still in good condition, but cant find any buyers

Japan has choices. They can open up to immigration scenarios. They can choose to change their culture if that is the cause of the populace's choices not to reproduce.

They can adapt economically, however painfully, to fewer people. (I realize that there are defense and other considerations besides economic.)

 

[Variant]

Shrinking birth rates seem to be a phenomenon observed world wide, which I think ultimately is a good thing.

The scary prospect is there seems to be a shortage of thinkers who are considering how we can negotiate this phenomenon while maintaining an economic system of heavily financialized liberal capitalism which is built on the assumption of infinite growth.

The assumption of infinite growth was already pretty ridiculous so we were going to have to navigate some solution to it anyway.

Running our economic systems into an obvious brick wall because we can't think of a better alternative is kind of hilarious for a supposedly intelligent species.

 

[tharock220]

There are a couple reasons for this.

Kids are no longer needed to help support the family anymore. My grandfather was pulled out of school in sixth grade because his parents wanted him home to work on their dairy farm. I wouldn't support that these days, but it wouldn't be necessary due to automation. Similarly, they can't be sent to work in factories or mines. They have to be in school. That's a good thing. That said, there's no impetus to start having children.

Kids are expensive. My wife wanted kids while she was in dental school. I felt that was a bad idea since my job was paying the tuition, and a kid would have meant debt. Newborns sounds like fun until they're born. Then you don't get to sleep. I'm not sure why we even had our second.

Upper middle class couples without kids see their nice lifestyles as threatened by children. You have two, usually professional, incomes. You go out, you travel, you own nice things, etc. The perception, and I think it's incorrect, is that kids will put make your life worse or less enjoyable. So they have kids later, which is difficult, or not at all. I have two friends who are 41 and 43. Because the truth is children are great, and all you want to do is give them the best life possible. The childless cat ladies JD Vance spoke about drive their Subarus in a perpetual state of anger to their teaching jobs and back home where they sit alone shopping for shitty antiques.

The other thing is that a demographic crisis was always an inevitability. The rate of population growth is proportional to population size and inversely related to the percentage of carrying capacity occupied.

Eventually age pyramids will converge to some optimal distribution and stabilize.