Nate Silver: Without winning Pennsylvania, 'Biden becomes an underdog'

[calamity]

I'm not a statistician, so I've always had a hard time squaring "Biden has 90 paths to victory" with "if Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania he's kind of screwed."

It seems to me the logic here is that if Biden loses PA, he loses Ohio and FL. That's why winning PA is important. Biden is more popular in that state.

And, Nate is right. The numbers there do not give me a warm fuzzy. However, they are a tick over margin of error. So, Biden sits a little prettier than Hillary did in 2016.

 

[calamity]

According to the 270towin poll map, Biden has 258 solid EVs without PA. Any other state over 12 EVs or combination gives him over 270. That includes GA, NC, OH, FL, TX.
AZ only has 11 EVs. Iowa has 6.

270 has Biden with 290, and gives him PA. Trump is nearly 40 points below 200.

Consensus Forecast Electoral Map - 270toWin

The consensus ratings of a number of different forecasts.

www.270towin.com

 

[Fishking]

I'm skeptical of TX being in play, but I think GA is real and I'm very confident AZ is real.

Who knows? Trump won GA by 5% and AZ by 4% so I guess it's possible. Texas was 9% though and the county map was largely very red with only a few being light red.

 

[MTAtech]

270 has Biden with 290, and gives him PA. Trump is nearly 40 points below 200.

Consensus Forecast Electoral Map - 270toWin

The consensus ratings of a number of different forecasts.

www.270towin.com

You are looking at the consensus map, not the polling map, which puts <5% in toss up.

 

[skeptic llc]

According to the 270towin poll map, Biden has 258 solid EVs without PA. Any other state over 12 EVs or combination gives him over 270. That includes GA, NC, OH, FL, TX.
AZ only has 11 EVs. Iowa has 6. A district in NE has one Biden can win.

But NE2? I think AZ would do it without PA. No?

 

[Deuce]

I'm not a statistician, so I've always had a hard time squaring "Biden has 90 paths to victory" with "if Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania he's kind of screwed."

Losing Pennsylvania just puts him under the 50% mark.

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

It seems to me the logic here is that if Biden loses PA, he loses Ohio and FL. That's why winning PA is important. Biden is more popular in that state.

And, Nate is right. The numbers there do not give me a warm fuzzy. However, they are a tick over margin of error. So, Biden sits a little prettier than Hillary did in 2016.

PA voters and FL are totally different. Biden could win FL and lose PA.

What annoys me about Biden is how he totally flubbed that fracking question. If Pennsylvania is close we may revisit that mistake.

 

[yankintx]

Given the numbers bidens odds of florida are not very high at all, infact given the republican lean especially in later counter and republicans often outperforming polls there bidens odds are not that great.

If Florida Seniors turn on Trump and go for Biden, its over.

 

[gbg3]

What annoys me about Biden is how he totally flubbed that fracking question. If Pennsylvania is close we may revisit that mistake.

I'm curious - how do you wish he would have handled the fracking question?

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

It will be the young people who will decide this election. Most of the old people won't change party or their vote if Hitler and Stalin were running.

 

[Jay59]

Nate Silver: Without winning Pennsylvania, 'Biden becomes an underdog'

FiveThirtyEight.com founder Nate Silver said over the weekend that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will become “an underdog" if he doesn't win Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes on Tuesday.

thehill.com

FiveThirtyEight.com founder Nate Sliver said over the weekend that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will become “an underdog" if he doesn't win Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes on Tuesday. “Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin,” Silver said. "It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania.” To the contrary, early voting in PA seemed heavy.

This is what I have been saying for a week, but few would listen. In terms of statistics, it's very basic stuff. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, there are a lot of other states that went bigger for Trump. An equivalent for Trump is Florida.

Try Silver's model. Just click Pennsylvania to Trump and watch the probability jump from 10% to 61%. Since Pennsylvania is strongly influenced by the black vote, several threads on that subject have relevance.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

It seems to me the logic here is that if Biden loses PA, he loses Ohio and FL. That's why winning PA is important. Biden is more popular in that state. And, Nate is right. The numbers there do not give me a warm fuzzy. However, they are a tick over margin of error. So, Biden sits a little prettier than Hillary did in 2016.

People forget how fast the numbers dropped for Clinton four years ago. After the fact, they said, "It was within the margin of error, because Hillary won the popular vote by 2%.", forgetting that the margin dropped from 8% to 5% in just a couple of days.

270 has Biden with 290, and gives him PA. Trump is nearly 40 points below 200.

It's not really that relevant. Polls are a snap shot of the period they are taken. When things are changing rapidly, like they are now, polls are behind the curve.

PA voters and FL are totally different. Biden could win FL and lose PA. What annoys me about Biden is how he totally flubbed that fracking question. If Pennsylvania is close we may revisit that mistake.

Not totally different. The minority vote is a big factor in both states.

The problem is that Trump has done a good job. Haters don't see it, but there are many others who can be looking.

 

[Tralfamadore]

If Biden wins Florida (and that's obviously a tossup), it's over, but those results are expected tomorrow night or Wednesday. It would be funny if, out of all states, it was Florida that puts a quick end to this election.

 

[calamity]

Trump has only two paths. Both require a win in PA. Biden has several paths that do not require PA.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Note the long odds. Path 1 requires Trump to win MI, WI and MN---that ain't happening.

Path two goes through Nevada and Maine. He's only down 5 in Nevada. But, Maine shows him down by 13.

 

[Threegoofs]

Fortunately, Biden is doing far better in PA than Clinton did, and she only lost by 40,000 votes. If the polls are wrong by the same rate as in 2016, Biden will still win by 0.7%.

of course, with the massive turnout, who knows what will happen.

True, but note the lack of undecided voters in virtually all states. In 2016, undecideds were a lot higher, leading to much more uncertainty.

 

[calamity]

If Biden wins Florida (and that's obviously a tossup), it's over, but those results are expected tomorrow night or Wednesday. It would be funny if, out of all states, it was Florida that puts a quick end to this election.

I'd rather see it be Texas. The gloating opportunities for that would be epic.

 

[Tralfamadore]

I'd rather see it be Texas. The gloating opportunities for that would be epic.

One being Trump loses, and two being the Republican Party is f*****, uh, in case that wasn't obvious...

 

[Cardinal]

Can't think of a time I ever had my ass handed to me than in this thread. But that's okay because it means everybody has absorbed the right lessons more than I have.

 

[Threegoofs]

It seems to me the logic here is that if Biden loses PA, he loses Ohio and FL. That's why winning PA is important. Biden is more popular in that state.

And, Nate is right. The numbers there do not give me a warm fuzzy. However, they are a tick over margin of error. So, Biden sits a little prettier than Hillary did in 2016.

90% chance?

im comfortable with that.

I think we’re gonna see a blowout.

But then again, there’s a lotta stupid people out there, apparently.

 

[Threegoofs]

Given the numbers bidens odds of florida are not very high at all, infact given the republican lean especially in later counter and republicans often outperforming polls there bidens odds are not that great.

Biden’s odds aren’t about the same as Trump’s.

With few undecideds, and 5000 cases of COVID every day.

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

If Biden wins Florida (and that's obviously a tossup), it's over, but those results are expected tomorrow night or Wednesday. It would be funny if, out of all states, it was Florida that puts a quick end to this election.

If Trump has lost as much support among seniors as it appears, it could be game over for Trump really early.

 

[skeptic llc]

I'm curious - how do you wish he would have handled the fracking question?

He needed to lie, like any competent politician.

 

[skeptic llc]

I'd rather see it be Texas. The gloating opportunities for that would be epic.

It won't happen, but I will have SO much fun if Biden wins TX. Or GA, I'll gloat away with that one too, and it seems more plausible.

 

[The Mark]

That's contradiction...

"Biden does not need pa, but his chances are dim as hell without it"
That means he DOES need PA.

"No matter how you look at it biden must either keep pa or get lucky as hell hoping georgia or az will flip."
Again, you might as well say "Biden needs Pennsylvania" because Biden NEEDS Pennsylvania.

No.

Effectively if Biden loses PA it means the polls were badly off, and that he might lose in enough other places that he can't win if those other places polls are off by a similar amount.

538's model https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews takes this into account by changing the chance it gives Trump to win from 10% to 60% if he wins PA alone out of all the states.

But just like the 90% chance they have of Biden winning currently, it's not a sure thing, and that means even if Trump wins PA, Biden still has a 40% chance according to 538's model.

 

[Tralfamadore]

I think the point is that PA gives Trump the chance to fight

If Trump has lost as much support among seniors as it appears, it could be game over for Trump really early.

Giving the finger to victims of COVID, and their families, and those susceptible, would do that also.

 

[uptower]

Biden's got The Real Slim Shady. Trump ain't getting MI or PA.