Nate Silver reports, "Donald Trump Again Favored to Beat Kamala Harris: Election Forecast" (1 Viewer)

[trixare4kids]

As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now.

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."
He said it has been "quite a while" since a poll has shown Harris leading Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state, including two polls released Thursday.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

An Emerson College poll of swing states showed Harris and Trump each receiving support from 48 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania. The poll surveyed 950 likely voters from August 25 to August 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll conducted among 400 likely voters from August 19 to 21 showed Trump leading Harris by a single point in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 46 percent) in a head-to-head race.

While several polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania, a few have shown Harris up. An ActiVote survey conducted from August 5 to August 22 among 400 likely voters showed Harris leading by two points (51 to 49 percent)."

Source:
Newsweek

 

[Greenbeard]

And subsequently new polling from PA dropped.

 

[BlueTex]

As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now.

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."

Source:
Newsweek

Hmmm…. Nate is telling Trump supporters to be very careful with model run…

 

[CaughtInThe]

 

[vesper]

As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now.

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."
He said it has been "quite a while" since a poll has shown Harris leading Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state, including two polls released Thursday.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

An Emerson College poll of swing states showed Harris and Trump each receiving support from 48 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania. The poll surveyed 950 likely voters from August 25 to August 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll conducted among 400 likely voters from August 19 to 21 showed Trump leading Harris by a single point in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 46 percent) in a head-to-head race.

While several polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania, a few have shown Harris up. An ActiVote survey conducted from August 5 to August 22 among 400 likely voters showed Harris leading by two points (51 to 49 percent)."

Source:
Newsweek

keep the faith.

 

[trixare4kids]

More on the above, O/P

The Hill

"Nate Silver: Trump slightly ahead of Harris heading into Labor Day weekend
Pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast now has former President Trump slightly ahead of Vice President Harris heading into Labor Day weekend.

While Harris is beating the former president by 3.8 points based on the updated Silver Bulletin’s national polling tracker, the vice president’s chance of winning the Electoral College has dipped.

Silver’s forecast has Trump with 52.4 percent of winning the Electoral College, around 5 percent higher than Harris’s 47.3 percent.

“Some of this is because of the convention bounce adjustment that the model applies to polls that were conducted during or after the DNC,” Silver wrote on Thursday. “It assumes Harris’s polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC.”

Silver wrote that if Harris is able to maintain her current standing for a “couple” more weeks, “she’ll begin to track up again in our forecast as the model will become more confident that she’s out of the convention bounce period.”

 

[MamboDervish]

These were the election odds as of a couple of days ago. I don't suspect they've changed much since then. The Harris/Walz press Q&A probably did her more good than harm.

Election Odds 2024 | Who Will Be The Next US President?

Look at US President election odds 2024. United States Presidential lines for Trump +333 DeSantis +350 Biden +500 and The Rock +5000.

www.thelines.com

 

[trixare4kids]

keep the faith.

Always. You too, vesper.

 

[phoenix2020]

Every Democrat, Independent and RINO should follow Trix’s guidance here and assume they are the underdog and need to fight like hell every minute of every day to win every last possible vote. Don’t be like the OP who is content to rest on her laurels; get out there and canvas, spread the joy and cheer, and help craft one United America that stands together against Trump, Vance, Project 2025 and the OP.

 

[BlueTex]

Every Democrat, Independent and RINO should follow Trix’s guidance here and assume they are the underdog and need to fight like hell every minute of every day to win every last possible vote. Don’t be like the OP who is content to rest on her laurels; get out there and canvas, spread the joy and cheer, and help craft one United America that stands together against Trump, Vance, Project 2025 and the OP.

I use the Trix model to keep a macro view of current polling…

No Trix poll thread, Trump is getting stomped..

New Trix thread, Trump had even the slightest bump in the polls..

 

[PoS]

As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now.

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."
He said it has been "quite a while" since a poll has shown Harris leading Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state, including two polls released Thursday.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

An Emerson College poll of swing states showed Harris and Trump each receiving support from 48 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania. The poll surveyed 950 likely voters from August 25 to August 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll conducted among 400 likely voters from August 19 to 21 showed Trump leading Harris by a single point in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 46 percent) in a head-to-head race.

While several polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania, a few have shown Harris up. An ActiVote survey conducted from August 5 to August 22 among 400 likely voters showed Harris leading by two points (51 to 49 percent)."

Source:
Newsweek

People are finally figuring out the truth: Kamala is an airhead.

 

[trixare4kids]

People are finally figuring out the truth: Kamala is an airhead.

I think most know it but are having a hard time admitting it.

 

[MamboDervish]

People are finally figuring out the truth: Kamala is an airhead.

Yeah - sure. Go with that.

Kamala Harris - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Loulit01]

Nate Silver gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning in 2016.

If you're counting on him you're desperate and afraid.

 

[Ginger Ale]

Thoughts and prayers!

 

[Sweden]

As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now.

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."
He said it has been "quite a while" since a poll has shown Harris leading Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state, including two polls released Thursday.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

An Emerson College poll of swing states showed Harris and Trump each receiving support from 48 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania. The poll surveyed 950 likely voters from August 25 to August 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll conducted among 400 likely voters from August 19 to 21 showed Trump leading Harris by a single point in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 46 percent) in a head-to-head race.

While several polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania, a few have shown Harris up. An ActiVote survey conducted from August 5 to August 22 among 400 likely voters showed Harris leading by two points (51 to 49 percent)."

Source:
Newsweek

It is hard to understand why you are happy at the thought of a doddering old fool becoming President once again. Trump's mental faculties are in steep decline. Is it that you hope that Vance will actually be in charge??

 

[Port & Starboard]

I have no idea who is actually ahead in the race at this point in time.

I lost all remaining trust in pollsters in 2016 when a sure Hillary win turned into a national embarrassment.

To a outsider looking in...........Kamala came off looking pretty bad last night even with Dana Bash throwing scripted cotton ball questions at her.

 

[Tangmo]

Yesterday Obama former campaign pollster Cornell Belcher projected Harris to win North Carolina. Obama won there in '08 which was a complete upset over the NC voting patterns for many years. Harris will be campaigning in rural areas there too same as she's doing in Georgia right now. I think Nate Silver needs to spend some time on the ground and with the soil.

 

[multivita-man]

These were the election odds as of a couple of days ago. I don't suspect they've changed much since then. The Harris/Walz press Q&A probably did her more good than harm.

Election Odds 2024 | Who Will Be The Next US President?

Look at US President election odds 2024. United States Presidential lines for Trump +333 DeSantis +350 Biden +500 and The Rock +5000.

www.thelines.com

I saw clips and they did fine. A few things not so artfully worded but no major blunders.

 

[multivita-man]

Yesterday Obama former campaign pollster Cornell Belcher projected Harris to win North Carolina. Obama won there in '08 which was a complete upset over the NC voting patterns for many years. Harris will be campaigning in rural areas there too same as she's doing in Georgia right now. I think Nate Silver needs to spend some time on the ground and with the soil.

I think Harris will need to expand the 2020 map to win, and NC will figure significantly to that end. She will need NC in case she loses GA.

 

[Mycroft]

Hmmm…. Nate is telling Trump supporters to be very careful with model run…

And subsequently new polling from PA dropped.

As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now.

BLAH, BLAH, BLAH

1. I snipped all that stuff y'all posted to save space.
2. I'm not saying blah, blah, blah to your comments. I'm saying it to all of the stuff I snipped...so don't be offended.

Now...why am I saying blah, blah, blah? Because...we are talking about polls here. Y'all know what I think about pollsters and their bogus polls. Making predictions based on bogus polls gives you nothing but bogus predictions.

To me, it's kind of like religion. Even though there is evidence that the stuff pollsters and predictors say doesn't make sense, is outright lies or there is evidence of manipulation, people want to have faith that the pollsters are telling the truth and people want to believe the polls. The pollsters and predictors are using that faith to their own advantage.

I don't operate on faith. When I see this kind of religious-like action, I ask myself WHY are the pollsters and predictors are feeding us all this blah, blah, blah.

There's a lot of information, data and judgement that plays into my conclusion about WHY. Way too much to present here. And, I'm simply not interested in getting into the inevitable responses demanding that I write a paper, so to speak, and lay out all of that information, data and judgement to justify my conclusion. But...rest assured that my conclusion isn't just something I plucked out of the air.

Anyway, here it is:

When Joe was the candidate, the DNC couldn't manipulate public opinion enough to give any kind of plausibility to the notion that he could win the election. It just wasn't possible. With Harris as candidate, the DNC can create that plausibility. That plausibility...that belief...is what the DNC wants. The pollsters, the predictors...and the media...are creating that belief. Without the pollsters, predictors and media NOBODY looking at her objectively would believe that Harris has a chance of winning the election. There just wouldn't be any plausibility...just like there wasn't when Joe was the candidate.

That plausibility is the goal.

That's all the DNC needs to ensure that Harris wins the election.

 

[multivita-man]

This is not a prediction but how I think what the results would be if the race where held today. I don't have a lot of conviction behind some of these state-by-state calls, either, because as I've said from the beginning, there are two phases to this campaign: the reset phase, which just ended, and the real race itself, which just started. I can see why Silver gives Trump the odds. For as much as Harris has gained over Biden during the reset, she's leading Trump just barely, and the race gets tougher from here on out.

 

[BrotherFease]

Silver's model currently has the election as a toss-up, which is what we already know. 52-47 split is a essentially a tie.

Here's my electoral college map:

PA & Michigan - The state has a Democratic Governor, and two Democratic Senators. Recent trends shows that these states disproportionately favors the blue candidate.

Wisconsin - Typically goes with the winner of the Michigan and Penn races.

Nevada - The state typically produces with the electoral college winner. So with Harris projected to win Wisky, Michigan, and Penn, I have to go with Nevada in the blue column.

Arizona - The state has a Democratic Governor and two "Democratic Senators". I cannot see Kari Lake winning. I don't think the state will ever forgive Trump for mocking McCain's military service. Blue for me.

Georgia - Could go either way. Both Warnock and Ossoff won by a tiny margin. I will go with Harris by a nose. Hopefully the recent election changes to make it hard for Brian Kemp to certify the election results will get modified or overturned.

That leaves North Carolina. Harris is currently leading in the state. This is a state I am really torn on. I will go with Trump for save keeping. The state still favors Republicans over Democrats.

 

[Tangmo]

I think Harris will need to expand the 2020 map to win, and NC will figure significantly to that end. She will need NC in case she loses GA.

With Nate Silver's present probabilities to include his step backward in scrolling he is soap on a rope. This time he's here now from where he was in the opposite previous here before now. He's still holding the EC for Trump but then again this is his present here and now. While Silver is visible and a reference point he is a shadow.

What's happening on the ground and in the air is that the Harris campaign is on a steady and consistent course through the swing states and additional states to include NC plus defending GA and AZ. Neither does Trump have the couch potato and closeted voters this time that he had in 2016 and did not have either in 2020. In the '22 midterms the couches and closets stayed full up as Trump's MAGA Morons lost in all the critical races.

The Harris mantra "it will be close" is too real and true to say it's glib. The Harris mantra that they need to make it happen is the old fashioned truth of it. So I'm tracking what's going on on the ground where the campaign bus people are getting their boots dusty.

 

[bongsaway]

It's gonna' be a blowout loss for the GOP and their negativity about everything.