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Nate Silver reports, "Donald Trump Again Favored to Beat Kamala Harris: Election Forecast"

tosca1 said:
Her flip-flop on fracking (even Fetterman couldn't answer the question at Meet The Press), will come back to bite her.

All the Trump campaign had to do is keep showing a video of her flipflop.
Click to expand...

Trump's got his own flip flops to account for.

Flip:
Trump: Nation’s infrastructure can be fixed ‘only by me’
Flop:
White House threatens veto on Democrats’ $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan
Trump tries to sabotage the Biden infrastructure deal

Flip:
Trump Promises ‘Insurance for Everybody’ as Health Law Replacement
Flop:
Under Trump, the number of uninsured Americans has gone up by 7 million

Flip:
Donald Trump says Medicare should negotiate drug prices
Flop:
Trump to Drop Call for Medicare to Negotiate Lower Drug Prices
Democrats pass U.S. bill to lower drug prices that Trump threatens to veto

Flip:
Trump Promises Drug Discount Cards as an Expensive Pre-election Gift
Flop:
SCOOP: Trump breaks his promise to send people $200 drug discount cards

Flip:
Trump says he's banning TikTok in the U.S.
Flop:
Trump says 'I'm for TikTok' as potential US ban looms

Flip:
Trump promises to repeal and replace Obamacare ‘essentially simultaneously’
Obamacare: Trump asks Supreme Court to invalidate Affordable Care Act
Trump doubles down on pledge to eliminate Obamacare, even as the pandemic rages, calling it 'lousy healthcare'
Flop:
Trump, Who Tried to Repeal Obamacare, Says He Is ‘Not Running to Terminate’ It
Trump’s IVF Proposal Would Expand Obamacare

Flip:
Trump appears to suggest that he’ll vote to overturn Florida’s six-week abortion ban: ‘Too short’
Flop:
Trump Says He’ll Vote Against Florida’s Abortion Rights Measure After Conservative Backlash
 
Republicans have a devious plot to steal the election, and it's happening now. Watch the video. 'PoliticsGirl' will spell it out

 
eman623 said:
They both still claim they lost because of collusion and interference.
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How many lawsuits did Hillary Clinton bring into State federal courtrooms, refusing to accept the outcome of the election based on allegations of collusion or interference?
 
I hope people are preparing themselves for a very rough few months, if not longer.

Republicans aren't planning to cheat, they're doing it right now in the open.
They're intentionally trying to create confusion in order to delay the election count, believing that Kamala Harris is going to win. If the electoral college vote is close in states like Georgia or Pennsylvania are still undecided, that would be great for Trump because If both candidates fall below 270 electoral votes, the Constitution says that the election must be decided by state legislators in the House. Republicans control more state legislators in the House, making up 59% of all states. That's how Republicans plan to win.
 
As of today...

Former President Donald Trump has taken a slight lead in a number of key battleground states ahead of November's election, according to a series of polls released on Tuesday.

Several surveys put Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.

Polling analysis suggested Harris and Trump are practically neck-and-neck as the final full month of campaigning ahead of Election Day gets underway.

A study of recent polling by veteran analyst Nate Silver released on Tuesday put Harris ahead by 3.4 points, but found her chances of overall victory were only 55 percent due to the Electoral College system. On Wednesday, Trump became the favorite to win in November, according to bookmaker Betfair following the previous evening's vice presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance.

InsiderAdvantage polled 800 likely voters in each of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia over September 29-30. The surveys found Trump had a 1-point lead over Harris in the states of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina while the two rivals were tied at 48 percent in Georgia.

Newsweek
 
trixare4kids said:
As of today, the closest it's been. virtual tie according to 538 Good sign!
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what a ****ed up place this country is when someone of Trump's despicable character can be "tied" for the presidency.
and people like you cheer for it.
 
SCrider said:
what a ****ed up place this country is when someone of Trump's despicable character can be "tied" for the presidency.
and people like you cheer for it.
Click to expand...

Well, I'm not cheering for you, but thanks for stopping by.
 
trixare4kids said:
Well, I'm not cheering for you, but thanks for stopping by.
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Yeah, you are cheering for Trump, a treasonous, sexual assaulting con man.

That is a bad look, no matter what else you believe in.
 
SCrider said:
Yeah, you are cheering for Trump, a treasonous, sexual assaulting con man.

That is a bad look, no matter what else you believe in.
Click to expand...

What does the above have to do with my thread, "Nate Silver reports, "Donald Trump Again Favored to Beat Kamala Harris: Election Forecast"?
 
trixare4kids said:
What does the above have to do with my thread, "Nate Silver reports, "Donald Trump Again Favored to Beat Kamala Harris: Election Forecast"?
Click to expand...
You said it was a good sign.
We all know you are in the Trump cult.
 
HumblePi said:
I hope people are preparing themselves for a very rough few months, if not longer.

Republicans aren't planning to cheat, they're doing it right now in the open.
They're intentionally trying to create confusion in order to delay the election count, believing that Kamala Harris is going to win. If the electoral college vote is close in states like Georgia or Pennsylvania are still undecided, that would be great for Trump because If both candidates fall below 270 electoral votes, the Constitution says that the election must be decided by state legislators in the House. Republicans control more state legislators in the House, making up 59% of all states.
Click to expand...
HumblePi said:
That's how Republicans plan to win.
Click to expand...

Yep. Been saying the bolded for months.

There's no way GA is going to hand-count 5.5M votes in time, particularly in the populated dense Dem cities.

It's ridiculous that states get to run Federal Elections.
 
More from Nate Silver as of tonight, and as usual, it's a neck and neck race in the swing states. Not much has really changed.

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ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
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trixare4kids said:
As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now. :)

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."
He said it has been "quite a while" since a poll has shown Harris leading Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state, including two polls released Thursday.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

An Emerson College poll of swing states showed Harris and Trump each receiving support from 48 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania. The poll surveyed 950 likely voters from August 25 to August 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll conducted among 400 likely voters from August 19 to 21 showed Trump leading Harris by a single point in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 46 percent) in a head-to-head race.

While several polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania, a few have shown Harris up. An ActiVote survey conducted from August 5 to August 22 among 400 likely voters showed Harris leading by two points (51 to 49 percent)."

Source:
Newsweek
Click to expand...
Ha?
 
trixare4kids said:
More from Nate Silver as of tonight, and as usual, it's a neck and neck race in the swing states. Not much has really changed.

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Yep...neck and neck...

But how! Kamala is kinda boring and bad but the other guy is Hitler
 
Chomsky said:
It's ridiculous that states get to run Federal Elections.
Click to expand...

Go back in your mind to November, 2020.

Now imagine, Trump is in charge of running the election, and overseeing the certification of results.

Color me deeply skeptical that the federal government is a wiser choice.
 
trixare4kids said:
As some of us, well, actually many who follow political races closely, the honeymoon appears to be over. Color me happy at least for now. :)

"Former President Donald Trump is favored to beat Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August 3 in Nate Silver's forecast of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race ahead of November, with most pollsters and forecasters viewing the election as a pure toss-up.

Before Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee—replacing President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race in July—Trump held a consistent lead that quickly evaporated as Harris' candidacy generated new enthusiasm among Democrats and record-breaking fundraising.

While Harris polled well following the Democratic National Convention last week, Silver's election forecast delivered some good news to Trump on Thursday, showing him at a slight advantage to beat Harris in November.

"Although we wouldn't advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it's not a big difference — this wasn't a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," Silver wrote in an update."

Silver wrote that there is "one big reason" for Trump being the favorite: Pennsylvania."
He said it has been "quite a while" since a poll has shown Harris leading Pennsylvania, which may be the tipping point state, including two polls released Thursday.
6 report.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

An Emerson College poll of swing states showed Harris and Trump each receiving support from 48 percent of respondents in Pennsylvania. The poll surveyed 950 likely voters from August 25 to August 28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Pinpoint Policy Institute poll conducted among 400 likely voters from August 19 to 21 showed Trump leading Harris by a single point in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 46 percent) in a head-to-head race.

While several polls have shown Trump leading Pennsylvania, a few have shown Harris up. An ActiVote survey conducted from August 5 to August 22 among 400 likely voters showed Harris leading by two points (51 to 49 percent)."

Source:
Newsweek
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Yeah Trixie, your honeymoon is over. Polls released this afternoon show Haris wins 57 out of 100 times. That number will continue to spread Harris' way when the indies digest the damning 1-6 report.

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The Hairy Fiddler said:
Yeah Trixie, your honeymoon is over. Polls released this afternoon show Haris wins 57 out of 100 times. That number will continue to spread Harris' way when the indies digest the damning 1-6 report.

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ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
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My source is
UPDATED Oct. 3, 2024, at 8:47 PM

Comparatively your link is out of date, DATED Oct. 3, 2024, at 4:09 PM.

You were saying to me again?
 
trixare4kids said:
More from Nate Silver as of tonight, and as usual, it's a neck and neck race in the swing states. Not much has really changed.
Click to expand...
That's not Nate Silver......
 
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