During last year's election campaign, some readers who followed our coverage came to the conclusion that the truth behind what the polls said was relatively simple once you stripped away all the bull**** that accompanies campaign coverage. And that's more or less correct when it comes to presidential elections. They're relatively predictable — more so than most people might expect intuitively, and more so than most of the mainstream media lets on. (Let me qualify that some: Presidential elections in the United States are quite predictable in the late stages of the race — they're not especially predictable months or years ahead of time.) We know this because there is a very rich track record of polling in the United States, and we can go back and look at how accurate the polls were in the past. The polls haven't been perfect, but they've generally done a very good job.
However, presidential elections are more the exception than the rule. As I discuss in my book, the more common tendency instead is that people (and especially the "experts" who write about the issues for a living) overestimate the degree of predictability in complex systems. There are some other exceptions besides presidential elections — sports, in many respects; and weather prediction, which has become much better in recent years. But for the most part, the experts you see on television are much too sure of themselves.
That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves...
The guy who accurately predicted the 2012 election has six takeaways from the shutdown. Worth read, IMO.
Nate Silver on the U.S. government shutdown - FiveThirtyEight
His takeaways may surprise you, and I suspect most people will not buy into them. But, I think that would be a mistake.
BTW: Grantland is a hell of an online magazine. A+
I think he is right on, Nate know what he is talking about.
This is 'sea-change' stuff Pero..
Much better than an election because it is every day and will directly affect the next election..
If Dems take the House ceiling, Americans won't forget..
If Dems take the Senate ceiling, another Christmas will be hurt..
Even the Alabama 1st will be interesting, with a TEAt vs. a RINO
Present Moment Awareness in my opinion says that this time is different because short debt-ceilings being insisted upon by the House will guarantee this will stay in the public..Repubs hope to gain back the public by JFK's 50th..They need another showdon, like debt 2.0 during November or they lose the battle on pre-existing conditions..Therefore, Repubs haven't stopped fighting, as we'll see all weekend with the spinning.the whole election will be interesting. If nothing more than I want to know if history prevails and the shutdown is completely forgotten come election time next year or if by change, the Republicans really shot themselves in the butt.
You mean like in 2009 grasshopper..When ACA was born..The one thing I do not want to happen is for the Democrats to gain enough seats in the senate to put them at 60 and take over control of the house with a Democratic president in charge. Then it is definitely party over country and nothing no one can do anything about preventing a extreme left wing agenda. I hate party agenda's over the peoples.
Dems normally don't do that..Showing them up shows no class..In spite of their handstands all month..Act like you've been there in the end zone, without that damn cantor smirk..Sure the Republicans would have it coming to them because of their stupidity in shutting down government, but not the majority of Americans. Last time I looked the Democrats only consists of 30% of the people, not 51%, although that is our system.
Dems won't gain 14..The structure of the CDs with your m/M stuff will only allow about 6-8 in a great year..Now I wouldn't mind a 220-215 GOP majority in the house with the Dems picking up a couple of seats in the senate.
They are both solid Senators..Kudos to them..You may not like Toomey-Manchin, as I did, but those were two conservatives, very solid..By the way I heard Manchin and Collins are working together to come up with legislation to end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. Those two senators I like. If they were majority and minority leaders of the senate, government would work.
Are you watching Georgia??Present Moment Awareness in my opinion says that this time is different because short debt-ceilings being insisted upon by the House will guarantee this will stay in the public..Repubs hope to gain back the public by JFK's 50th..They need another showdon, like debt 2.0 during November or they lose the battle on pre-existing conditions..Therefore, Repubs haven't stopped fighting, as we'll see all weekend with the spinning. You mean like in 2009 grasshopper..When ACA was born..
Dems normally don't do that..Showing them up shows no class..In spite of their handstands all month..Act like you've been there in the end zone, without that damn cantor smirk..
Dems won't gain 14..The structure of the CDs with your m/M stuff will only allow about 6-8 in a great year..They are both solid Senators..Kudos to them..You may not like Toomey-Manchin, as I did, but those were two conservatives, very solid..
Are you saying that Reid and Schumer are party hacks??I think Murray and Durbin are better..Manchin is like Nunn-style and could help your girl win..Gillibrand is the NEW Democrat..A lot of female Senators owe her big favors..A cleaner and younger form of Hillary..2020 materialI think you have a new breed of Democrats in Washington now. Not the old style of a Mitchell, Daschle, Nunn, O'Neil, McGovern etc. A lot of them are party and partisan hacks now. Of course that goes for the other side too. We have a bunch of partisan, party hacks in Washington now.
You know Linc..Repub centrist and now a just-to-the-right-of-center Lincoln DemYeah, a liberal Republican and a Conservative Democrat. Kind of brings back memories of the 50's and 60's when government worked and the majority of Americans trusted their government.
Are you saying that Reid and Schumer are party hacks??I think Murray and Durbin are better..Manchin is like Nunn-style and could help your girl win..Gillibrand is the NEW Democrat..A lot of female Senators owe her big favors..A cleaner and younger form of Hillary..2020 material
You know Linc..Repub centrist and now a just-to-the-right-of-center Lincoln Dem
I would classify Reid and Schummer as party hacks. Schummer I would give a bigger break to because he represents New York and his thinking is in more in line with the people of NY. Reid, no break what so ever. He is one of the two biggest party hack in Washington D.C. who doesn't give one iota about the country or have anything he would put above the Democratic Party. McConnell is the other.
But of course I am use my Democrats being in the Sam Nunn, Max Cleland, Zell Miller, Joe Frank Harris mode. You can even add Jimmy Carter to that list, Bill Clinton too. Democrats I had an affinity with. Not the Ted Kennedy, type. Of course this comes from a Goldwater Conservative Georgia Boy.
I hoe you're not watching the Georgia game right now..
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