Nate Silver on the Shutdown

[calamity]

The guy who accurately predicted the 2012 election has six takeaways from the shutdown. Worth read, IMO.
Nate Silver on the U.S. government shutdown - FiveThirtyEight

During last year's election campaign, some readers who followed our coverage came to the conclusion that the truth behind what the polls said was relatively simple once you stripped away all the bull**** that accompanies campaign coverage. And that's more or less correct when it comes to presidential elections. They're relatively predictable — more so than most people might expect intuitively, and more so than most of the mainstream media lets on. (Let me qualify that some: Presidential elections in the United States are quite predictable in the late stages of the race — they're not especially predictable months or years ahead of time.) We know this because there is a very rich track record of polling in the United States, and we can go back and look at how accurate the polls were in the past. The polls haven't been perfect, but they've generally done a very good job.

However, presidential elections are more the exception than the rule. As I discuss in my book, the more common tendency instead is that people (and especially the "experts" who write about the issues for a living) overestimate the degree of predictability in complex systems. There are some other exceptions besides presidential elections — sports, in many respects; and weather prediction, which has become much better in recent years. But for the most part, the experts you see on television are much too sure of themselves.

That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves...

His takeaways may surprise you, and I suspect most people will not buy into them. But, I think that would be a mistake.


BTW: Grantland is a hell of an online magazine. A+

 

[Perotista]

The guy who accurately predicted the 2012 election has six takeaways from the shutdown. Worth read, IMO.
Nate Silver on the U.S. government shutdown - FiveThirtyEight



His takeaways may surprise you, and I suspect most people will not buy into them. But, I think that would be a mistake.


BTW: Grantland is a hell of an online magazine. A+

I think he is right on, Nate know what he is talking about.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Very interesting article. Thanks.

 

[Linc]

This is 'sea-change' stuff Pero..
Much better than an election because it is every day and will directly affect the next election..
If Dems take the House ceiling, Americans won't forget..
If Dems take the Senate ceiling, another Christmas will be hurt..
Even the Alabama 1st will be interesting, with a TEAt vs. a RINO

I think he is right on, Nate know what he is talking about.

 

[davidtaylorjr]

Good article, very insightful and likely true.

 

[Perotista]

This is 'sea-change' stuff Pero..
Much better than an election because it is every day and will directly affect the next election..
If Dems take the House ceiling, Americans won't forget..
If Dems take the Senate ceiling, another Christmas will be hurt..
Even the Alabama 1st will be interesting, with a TEAt vs. a RINO

the whole election will be interesting. If nothing more than I want to know if history prevails and the shutdown is completely forgotten come election time next year or if by change, the Republicans really shot themselves in the butt. The one thing I do not want to happen is for the Democrats to gain enough seats in the senate to put them at 60 and take over control of the house with a Democratic president in charge. Then it is definitely party over country and nothing no one can do anything about preventing a extreme left wing agenda. I hate party agenda's over the peoples. Sure the Republicans would have it coming to them because of their stupidity in shutting down government, but not the majority of Americans. Last time I looked the Democrats only consists of 30% of the people, not 51%, although that is our system.

Now I wouldn't mind a 220-215 GOP majority in the house with the Dems picking up a couple of seats in the senate.

By the way I heard Manchin and Collins are working together to come up with legislation to end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. Those two senators I like. If they were majority and minority leaders of the senate, government would work.

 

[Linc]

Are you watching Georgia??

the whole election will be interesting. If nothing more than I want to know if history prevails and the shutdown is completely forgotten come election time next year or if by change, the Republicans really shot themselves in the butt.

Present Moment Awareness in my opinion says that this time is different because short debt-ceilings being insisted upon by the House will guarantee this will stay in the public..Repubs hope to gain back the public by JFK's 50th..They need another showdon, like debt 2.0 during November or they lose the battle on pre-existing conditions..Therefore, Repubs haven't stopped fighting, as we'll see all weekend with the spinning.

The one thing I do not want to happen is for the Democrats to gain enough seats in the senate to put them at 60 and take over control of the house with a Democratic president in charge. Then it is definitely party over country and nothing no one can do anything about preventing a extreme left wing agenda. I hate party agenda's over the peoples.

You mean like in 2009 grasshopper..When ACA was born..

Sure the Republicans would have it coming to them because of their stupidity in shutting down government, but not the majority of Americans. Last time I looked the Democrats only consists of 30% of the people, not 51%, although that is our system.

Dems normally don't do that..Showing them up shows no class..In spite of their handstands all month..Act like you've been there in the end zone, without that damn cantor smirk..

Now I wouldn't mind a 220-215 GOP majority in the house with the Dems picking up a couple of seats in the senate.

Dems won't gain 14..The structure of the CDs with your m/M stuff will only allow about 6-8 in a great year..

By the way I heard Manchin and Collins are working together to come up with legislation to end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. Those two senators I like. If they were majority and minority leaders of the senate, government would work.

They are both solid Senators..Kudos to them..You may not like Toomey-Manchin, as I did, but those were two conservatives, very solid..

 

[Gaugingcatenate]

First, gracias on the heads up about Grantland, will certainly give it a future mindful glance or more.

But, and I think the article encourages looking additionally since you need many temp and other readings to hope to predict weather ...

But, what was left out, again not disingenuously, tho…as I would agree, seems a very even handed portrayal of personal perception, highly readable and in a way which puts nobody immediately in a defensive posture…

What was missing? Adding that the Republican Establishment ignored what the base is/has been telling them even as the base gained more voice. Seems the good ole ‘stab has bent more the direction of Obama/Reid… formerly /Pelosi… than those voiceless, would hazard that most this side now united in, just for finally, instead of taking punches, starting to throw a few, calling Obama finally for all his huffery puffery and piddlings… MSM’s having a harder time defending, economy they tell us is going great, but none truly believe that, not deep down. Nor about obamacare, not with the growing JonStewart-Sebilius/Blitzer montages now as backdrop...

Then add exemptions/delays/subsidies thing…no sincere defense of what have been decisions under this administration to shut down the most vulnerable, visible and painful, public exposure wise, parks even when state’s offered to take over operations all the way to bringing in/putting up barricades special to keep WW2 vets out… the PR is unavoidably, and very well should be, going counter administration.

Then add that, along with the Senate not acting on House funding bills, there was this total unwillingness to negotiate in times of what they themselves declare to be a time of deep peril… btw when has any president not negotiated in the past, especially in times of, at very least according to your side, facing impending fiscal disaster.

Ahhhhh, sigh, if the right could message even half decently, the battle has principally, especially on basic principles, has already been won... 'cause, deep down, we are more right if not absolutely right. This still has the chance of being played brilliantly, they have the brains, but do the Republicans have the guts, that will be the telling factor. What the boob, and he really is, is finding out is that this is not campaigning any more, cannot just hurl grenades hiding in the non-Fox hole... cannot issue a no vote as that non vote as president actually registers as a solid yes or solid no...indecision and non-decision, obstinacy and indignation have morphed into the...and they actually do make you "wait for it"..ta daaaa...the Obama Policy...you know, the uh oh, we got lucky on that last one, roll the dice cause really, who really cares, least ways who cares that we care about, eh?

 

[Perotista]

Are you watching Georgia??Present Moment Awareness in my opinion says that this time is different because short debt-ceilings being insisted upon by the House will guarantee this will stay in the public..Repubs hope to gain back the public by JFK's 50th..They need another showdon, like debt 2.0 during November or they lose the battle on pre-existing conditions..Therefore, Repubs haven't stopped fighting, as we'll see all weekend with the spinning. You mean like in 2009 grasshopper..When ACA was born..
Dems normally don't do that..Showing them up shows no class..In spite of their handstands all month..Act like you've been there in the end zone, without that damn cantor smirk..
Dems won't gain 14..The structure of the CDs with your m/M stuff will only allow about 6-8 in a great year..They are both solid Senators..Kudos to them..You may not like Toomey-Manchin, as I did, but those were two conservatives, very solid..

If the GOP continues on with the fight, then the question becomes how low can they go? Maybe even are they willing to to accept total one party rule just in order to continue a losing fight? Do they want to lose everything now or live to fight another day?

yeah on your grasshopper comment. I said many times I do not know if the ACA is good or bad, it may be the best thing since sex and peanut butter. But the way it was passed still sticks in my craw. Threats, whips, bribery, then thousands of exemptions to supporters of the law and on and on. Since I watch so much C-Span back then, this si something I will never forget or condone. Over 60% of the folks in Missouri, Louisiana, Nebraska just to name 3 states were against it. So their senators completely ignored the people whom they are suppose to represent and told them to shove it where the sun doesn't shine. Party politics and agenda over the will of the people. Yeah, still a sore spot which has nothing to do with the merits of the law.

I think you have a new breed of Democrats in Washington now. Not the old style of a Mitchell, Daschle, Nunn, O'Neil, McGovern etc. A lot of them are party and partisan hacks now. Of course that goes for the other side too. We have a bunch of partisan, party hacks in Washington now.

As of now, I don't think so either. But with over a year to go, who knows as far as whom or what party gains where. All we can do is sit back and calculate on how it would look if the election was held today.

Yeah, a liberal Republican and a Conservative Democrat. Kind of brings back memories of the 50's and 60's when government worked and the majority of Americans trusted their government.

 

[Linc]

I think you have a new breed of Democrats in Washington now. Not the old style of a Mitchell, Daschle, Nunn, O'Neil, McGovern etc. A lot of them are party and partisan hacks now. Of course that goes for the other side too. We have a bunch of partisan, party hacks in Washington now.

Are you saying that Reid and Schumer are party hacks??I think Murray and Durbin are better..Manchin is like Nunn-style and could help your girl win..Gillibrand is the NEW Democrat..A lot of female Senators owe her big favors..A cleaner and younger form of Hillary..2020 material

Yeah, a liberal Republican and a Conservative Democrat. Kind of brings back memories of the 50's and 60's when government worked and the majority of Americans trusted their government.

You know Linc..Repub centrist and now a just-to-the-right-of-center Lincoln Dem

 

[Perotista]

Are you saying that Reid and Schumer are party hacks??I think Murray and Durbin are better..Manchin is like Nunn-style and could help your girl win..Gillibrand is the NEW Democrat..A lot of female Senators owe her big favors..A cleaner and younger form of Hillary..2020 material
You know Linc..Repub centrist and now a just-to-the-right-of-center Lincoln Dem

I would classify Reid and Schummer as party hacks. Schummer I would give a bigger break to because he represents New York and his thinking is in more in line with the people of NY. Reid, no break what so ever. He is one of the two biggest party hack in Washington D.C. who doesn't give one iota about the country or have anything he would put above the Democratic Party. McConnell is the other.

But of course I am use my Democrats being in the Sam Nunn, Max Cleland, Zell Miller, Joe Frank Harris mode. You can even add Jimmy Carter to that list, Bill Clinton too. Democrats I had an affinity with. Not the Ted Kennedy, type. Of course this comes from a Goldwater Conservative Georgia Boy.

 

[Linc]

I hoe you're not watching the Georgia game right now..

I would classify Reid and Schummer as party hacks. Schummer I would give a bigger break to because he represents New York and his thinking is in more in line with the people of NY. Reid, no break what so ever. He is one of the two biggest party hack in Washington D.C. who doesn't give one iota about the country or have anything he would put above the Democratic Party. McConnell is the other.

But of course I am use my Democrats being in the Sam Nunn, Max Cleland, Zell Miller, Joe Frank Harris mode. You can even add Jimmy Carter to that list, Bill Clinton too. Democrats I had an affinity with. Not the Ted Kennedy, type. Of course this comes from a Goldwater Conservative Georgia Boy.

 

[Perotista]

I hoe you're not watching the Georgia game right now..

I'm not, I am a Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket fan, not a Dawg fan at all.