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Nate Silver crunches the 2024 election data - why Democrats lost

maxparrish

maxparrish

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www.natesilver.net

Turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election

In fact, marginal voters preferred Trump. So Democrats need to find a new playbook.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net

OK, so that was a lot of work. So let’s roll these up into three large categories:
  • Democrats lost a net of 6.4 million votes from repeat voters switching, mostly to Trump (5.5 million) but some to third parties (0.9 million).
  • Then they lost a net of 2.7 million votes due to dropoff voters.⁷
  • Further, they lost a net of 0.8 million votes because more new voters went for Trump.
So while Democrats lost ground pretty much every way you can on the balance sheet, the impact of repeat voters switching was about twice as large as from dropoff voters exiting the electorate.

...If you’re good at turning out marginal voters, you’re happy to book the win — but they might not vote again next time.

In past elections, however, new voters were also Democratic, enough to more or less cancel this out. This time, however, the majority of new voters picked Trump.
 
Clif Notes: They got crushed
 
Catalyst came out with their numbers as well and its not pretty for the dems. They are losing young black and Latino men badly.
Racism and sexism only gets you so far when you dont have any policies to help people.
 
Young voters used to be strongly liberal. Now they're rejecting liberalism and embracing conservatism. Bad news for the libs. Worse news is a) the Dem leaders are all older than dirt, and b) POC are tired of being Dem lackeys.
 
maxparrish said:
www.natesilver.net

Turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election

In fact, marginal voters preferred Trump. So Democrats need to find a new playbook.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net

OK, so that was a lot of work. So let’s roll these up into three large categories:
  • Democrats lost a net of 6.4 million votes from repeat voters switching, mostly to Trump (5.5 million) but some to third parties (0.9 million).
  • Then they lost a net of 2.7 million votes due to dropoff voters.⁷
  • Further, they lost a net of 0.8 million votes because more new voters went for Trump.
So while Democrats lost ground pretty much every way you can on the balance sheet, the impact of repeat voters switching was about twice as large as from dropoff voters exiting the electorate.

...If you’re good at turning out marginal voters, you’re happy to book the win — but they might not vote again next time.

In past elections, however, new voters were also Democratic, enough to more or less cancel this out. This time, however, the majority of new voters picked Trump.
Click to expand...
Democrats grossly underestimated how much the American public had been brainwashed by the Republican messaging.

Eggs! Word salad! DEI! Open border! Trans!
 
As Silver pointed out, elevating AOC to head of the party would be very unwise; none the less, it appears that is the direction that Democrats are heading. And in the process, when the extremists take charge the centrists and marginal voters disappear, and new voters may vote Republican.

Get an adult nominee who appeals to some part of the Republican coalition and he will win. Otherwise, after Trump may come Vance.
 
Pretty sorry state of affairs when you can attempt to overturn a democratic election through lies, political machinations, and the promotion of violence, and lose effectively no voters. Doesn’t speak well of the democratic values and morals of those who vote Republican, regardless of how numerous they are.

In any event, the mistake is in assuming the trends/fads of 2024 will carry over. If the equivalent trends of 2008 had held true no Republican would have been elected ever again. The margins here are pretty slim and MAGA is not performing well thus far. One wonders how these switching repeat voters feel about their choice, especially young black and brown men and progressive protest voters.
 
maxparrish said:
www.natesilver.net

Turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election

In fact, marginal voters preferred Trump. So Democrats need to find a new playbook.
www.natesilver.net www.natesilver.net

OK, so that was a lot of work. So let’s roll these up into three large categories:
  • Democrats lost a net of 6.4 million votes from repeat voters switching, mostly to Trump (5.5 million) but some to third parties (0.9 million).
  • Then they lost a net of 2.7 million votes due to dropoff voters.⁷
  • Further, they lost a net of 0.8 million votes because more new voters went for Trump.
So while Democrats lost ground pretty much every way you can on the balance sheet, the impact of repeat voters switching was about twice as large as from dropoff voters exiting the electorate.

...If you’re good at turning out marginal voters, you’re happy to book the win — but they might not vote again next time.

In past elections, however, new voters were also Democratic, enough to more or less cancel this out. This time, however, the majority of new voters picked Trump.
Click to expand...
Earth to the DNC, don't run a woman for awhile.
The real wakeup for them is those that voted for Biden in 2020 (quite a few) who went for Trump in 2024. That is insane, and evidence of societal decline, especially now that Trump is doing as much as he said he would do, except for the obvious nonsense we already knew was nonsense (ending the Ukraine war on day one:ROFLMAO:).
The U.S. has a burgeoning society of frivolous nincompoops.
 
lynnwinslow said:
Do you want to have a real conversation about this or are you just here to post troll stuff?
Click to expand...

Coming from a poster who talks semantics. If you want a real conversation, start posting legitimate arguments. Not conspiracy theories about brainwashing.
 
Democrats are divided between mostly white, affluent, city "progressives" and the poorer, more moderate, often minority voter, who had few or none of his or her issues addressed by the previous administration.
 
lynnwinslow said:
Democrats grossly underestimated how much the American public had been brainwashed by the Republican messaging.

Eggs! Word salad! DEI! Open border! Trans!
Click to expand...
The fact that a lot of Dems look at issues where they were rightly criticized - inflation, border security, and trans extremism - and see it as evidence that the public is "brainwashed" rather than evidence that they need to do better - is precisely why they lost.

People are allowed to be angry about expensive eggs and a neverending caravan across the southern border. Maybe Dems should focus less on how to better sell this to the public and more on making sure it doesn't happen.
 
Plasmaball said:
They are losing young black and Latino men badly.
Racism and sexism only gets you so far when you dont have any policies to help people.
Click to expand...

element94 said:
Earth to the DNC, don't run a woman for awhile
Click to expand...


Is the answer to this problem is to try to cater to misogynistic young men that have been brainwashed by the internet?

Then let it all burn

🤷‍♀️
 
The only demographic group that supports democrats are liberal white females - and they crazy af.
 
Will Baron be old enough after Vance? Liberals keep doubling down on stupid. The problem is that the stupid is now embedded in the party and media. They're like ticks on a dog. Have to kill the dog at this point.


maxparrish said:
As Silver pointed out, elevating AOC to head of the party would be very unwise; none the less, it appears that is the direction that Democrats are heading. And in the process, when the extremists take charge the centrists and marginal voters disappear, and new voters may vote Republican.

Get an adult nominee who appeals to some part of the Republican coalition and he will win. Otherwise, after Trump may come Vance.
Click to expand...
 
element94 said:
Earth to the DNC, don't run a woman for awhile.
The real wakeup for them is those that voted for Biden in 2020 (quite a few) who went for Trump in 2024. That is insane, and evidence of societal decline, especially now that Trump is doing as much as he said he would do, except for the obvious nonsense we already knew was nonsense (ending the Ukraine war on day one:ROFLMAO:).
The U.S. has a burgeoning society of frivolous nincompoops.
Click to expand...
This.
The "new" Gavin Newsome may be of some use.
He's running to the right as fast as he can!
 
BirdinHand said:
Is the answer to this problem is to try to cater to misogynistic young men that have been brainwashed by the internet?

Then let it all burn

🤷‍♀️
Click to expand...
I think it's obvious this country needs a democratic woman leader, but the trend is currently against it. We need to get the criminal misfits and traitors out of the White House at the very least. I'd also like to get the complicit MAGA congress out armed with the U.S. Constitution before the Supreme Court. It's very obvious that many should at least be removed and barred from any office if not prosecuted for multiple traitorous Constitutional violations. Just because a bunch of clueless nitwits vote them in doesn't mean the Constitution can be automatically usurped.
 
verrip1 said:
Young voters used to be strongly liberal. Now they're rejecting liberalism and embracing conservatism. Bad news for the libs. Worse news is a) the Dem leaders are all older than dirt, and b) POC are tired of being Dem lackeys.
Click to expand...
Lol, Trumpism is anything but "conservative".
 
Trump isn't a GOP critter. He's a little of everything and 100% liberal breaker.



Jezcoe said:
The thing is that I don’t even really know what the GOP stands for anymore other than Trump and that guy takes multiple sides on the same issue.
Click to expand...
 
Why ?


element94 said:
I think it's obvious this country needs a democratic woman leader, but the trend is currently against it. We need to get the criminal misfits and traitors out of the White House at the very least. I'd also like to get the complicit MAGA congress out armed with the U.S. Constitution before the Supreme Court. It's very obvious that many should at least be removed and barred from any office if not prosecuted for multiple traitorous Constitutional violations. Just because a bunch of clueless nitwits vote them in doesn't mean the Constitution can be automatically usurped.
Click to expand...
 
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