Nate Silver crunches the 2024 election data - why Democrats lost

[MAGAnificent]

I find all that much less of an issue than the majority of the voters in this country electing a convicted financial fraud as the Chief Executive. There is just no meaningful comparison there.

TDS. I was rather hoping, you would discuss the concept of a female president as you brought it up. Oh well.

 

[eohrnberger]

People aren't illegal. Their immigration status is undocumented.

No one is claiming that 'people are illegal'. That makes no sense anyway.
A person's legal status can be illegal, specific to their not being authorized to be in the country.

'Illegal Alien' and 'Illegal Immigrant' are commonly used descriptive terms for individuals without legal authorization to enter or remain in country.
It is not whether a person is illegal.

The solution is to document them and start that process toward a green card and ultimately citizenship in a decade, if that is their goal, unless there are other obstacles.

The 'solution' is to not permit people who are unauthorized to be in the country into the country, and to remove those who are not authorized.

Even the GOP want their immigrants to stay for business reasons but to deport those immigrants of others. The entire scam to appeal to racists and xenophobes that support the white replacement theory, is obvious, so stop it.

So much projection and unfounded assertions and assumptions here.

The 'white replacement theory' is a theory of the democrats.

Biden and Myorkas have been planning to implement their 'Replacement Theory' for years, and this is it.

​

Which many of the Democrat leadership support, given their constant talking about it.

​

Yes, it's THEIR 'Replacement Theory'.

 

[Lycanthrope]

The US Senate.

 

[element94]

TDS. I was rather hoping, you would discuss the concept of a female president as you brought it up. Oh well.

No, you would rather not face obvious hard truths that make you look ridiculous.
It's true though (that Trump is a criminally convicted financial fraud for crimes against laws of the United States), and can't be denied since it's in the public record. So, how can it be TDS on my side? It sounds exactly like TDS on your side of all things since you are, apparently, denying it. Speaking the obvious truth about that criminal thug is TDS? Absolute insanity, but then that's the type of tactics you people need to use for obvious reasons.

 

[Lisa]

No one is claiming that 'people are illegal'. That makes no sense anyway.
A person's legal status can be illegal, specific to their not being authorized to be in the country.

'Illegal Alien' and 'Illegal Immigrant' are commonly used descriptive terms for individuals without legal authorization to enter or remain in country.
It is not whether a person is illegal.


The 'solution' is to not permit people who are unauthorized to be in the country into the country, and to remove those who are not authorized.


So much projection and unfounded assertions and assumptions here.

The 'white replacement theory' is a theory of the democrats.

Biden and Myorkas have been planning to implement their 'Replacement Theory' for years, and this is it.

​

Which many of the Democrat leadership support, given their constant talking about it.

​

Yes, it's THEIR 'Replacement Theory'.

Quoiting Viviek Ramaswamy doesn't help you. He is an extremist. Even Republicans in Ohio wont endorse him for Governor.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

The 'white replacement theory' is a theory of the democrats.

You have no idea what the GRT is or its history. It is a conspiracy theory that elites are planning white genocide. If you think Joe discussing immigration trends is his scheming to wipe-out WASP's in the US, I have some really nice Gulf Coast property that has the ocean beach right at the front door for sale.

 

[MAGAnificent]

No, you would rather not face obvious hard truths that make you look ridiculous.
It's true though (that Trump is a criminally convicted financial fraud for crimes against laws of the United States), and can't be denied since it's in the public record. So, how can it be TDS on my side? It sounds exactly like TDS on your side of all things since you are, apparently, denying it. Speaking the obvious truth about that criminal thug is TDS? Absolute insanity, but then that's the type of tactics you people need to use for obvious reasons.

So, there was nothing more to your comment that a woman president should be elected then TDS. Got it.

 

[Lisa]

So, there was nothing more to your comment that a woman president should be elected then TDS. Got it.

White supremacist males are the greatest threat of terrorism in the US. Immigrants are not a criminal element.

White supremacists present the gravest terror threat to the United States, according to a draft report from the Department of Homeland Security.


Two later draft versions of the same document — all of which were reviewed by POLITICO — describe the threat from white supremacists in slightly different language. But all three drafts describe the threat from white supremacists as the deadliest domestic terror threat facing the U.S., listed above the immediate danger from foreign terrorist groups.


“Foreign terrorist organizations will continue to call for Homeland attacks but probably will remain constrained in their ability to direct such plots over the next year,” all three documents say.





Russia “probably will be the primary covert foreign influence actor and purveyor of disinformation and misinformation in the Homeland,” the documents also say.

DHS draft document: White supremacists are greatest terror threat

The documents are slightly different drafts of the same annual threat assessment, which is not yet published.

www.politico.com

 

[hooligan]

History.

Nah.

Cruz is not popular, nationally.

 

[MAGAnificent]

White supremacist males are the greatest threat of terrorism in the US. Immigrants are not a criminal element.

DHS draft document: White supremacists are greatest terror threat

The documents are slightly different drafts of the same annual threat assessment, which is not yet published.

www.politico.com

You are posting that irrational nonsense based on your party's failure to nominate a viable female candidate?

 

[Lisa]

You are posting that irrational nonsense based on your party's failure to nominate a viable female candidate?

Sex doesn't matter in a politician. I'd rather have Bernie than Kamala, or Hillary.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

A woman candidate in one part or the other will be elected at some point,

A woman candidate was elected, her name is Hillary, she won the candidacy for the Democratic Party.

however it will not be a token woman elected based on gender alone.

I know, look at the last GOP female top ticket, the illustrious Sarah Palin who was able to name the magazines she reads (gotcha question!).

The hildabeast had no charisma

She won the popular vote.

and the cackler simply lacked the ability to articulate policy off the cuff.

Holy ****, compared to Don? Jesus, you people. You voted for the criminal over the prosecutor.

And the democrats ran off the only presently viable female candidate, "Tulsi Gabbard".

LOL! If she was so "viable", why didn't Don put her on the ticket...like Sarah? I bet she reads magazines, huh!

 

[Nickyjo]

Pretty sorry state of affairs when you can attempt to overturn a democratic election through lies, political machinations, and the promotion of violence, and lose effectively no voters. Doesn’t speak well of the democratic values and morals of those who vote Republican, regardless of how numerous they are.

In any event, the mistake is in assuming the trends/fads of 2024 will carry over. If the equivalent trends of 2008 had held true no Republican would have been elected ever again. The margins here are pretty slim and MAGA is not performing well thus far. One wonders how these switching repeat voters feel about their choice, especially young black and brown men and progressive protest voters.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with the values and morals of those who voted for Trump. He was lucky and had appeal. Lucky; On both elections he won, he was opposed by someone who would be the first woman prez, which had to give him at least a slight advantage. In addition, his first female opponent had been trashed for decades by the right and made “deplorable” mistakes in he campaign. His second female opponent was also eminently qualified, but also was victim of democrats’ mistakes, aka Biden’s running again then having to drop out. Appeal: Trump continued his appeal to White working class voters even as his policies screwed them the first time around and will screw them again this time.

 

[ataraxia]

Turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election

In fact, marginal voters preferred Trump. So Democrats need to find a new playbook.

www.natesilver.net

OK, so that was a lot of work. So let’s roll these up into three large categories:

• Democrats lost a net of 6.4 million votes from repeat voters switching, mostly to Trump (5.5 million) but some to third parties (0.9 million).
• Then they lost a net of 2.7 million votes due to dropoff voters.⁷
• Further, they lost a net of 0.8 million votes because more new voters went for Trump.

So while Democrats lost ground pretty much every way you can on the balance sheet, the impact of repeat voters switching was about twice as large as from dropoff voters exiting the electorate.

...If you’re good at turning out marginal voters, you’re happy to book the win — but they might not vote again next time.

In past elections, however, new voters were also Democratic, enough to more or less cancel this out. This time, however, the majority of new voters picked Trump.

Yep. Like many other demagogues throughout history, Trump has a real talent for playing on the common man's ignorance, misunderstandings, and fears to get him all stirred up. It's like starting a stampede by knowing how to spook the herd.

.

.

 

[MAGAnificent]

A woman candidate was elected, her name is Hillary, she won the candidacy for the Democratic Party.

She won the nomination for the democrat party, not the election,

I know, look at the last GOP female top ticket, the illustrious Sarah Palin who was able to name the magazines she reads (gotcha question!).

Sarah Palin ws not the problem with that ticket. McCain was. Palin was the only reason McCain had a chance at all. He needed conservative credentials.

She won the popular vote.

We do not elect presidents by way of the popular vote. Ever heard of the electoral college?

Holy ****, compared to Don? Jesus, you people. You voted for the criminal over the prosecutor.

TDS

LOL! If she was so "viable", why didn't Don put her on the ticket...like Sarah? I bet she reads magazines, huh!

Unlike the democrat ticket, Trump had a good bench of candidates to pick from. I would not be surprised to see a Vance/Gabbard ticket in 2028.

 

[eohrnberger]

Quoiting Viviek Ramaswamy doesn't help you. He is an extremist.

I wasn't aware that I was quoting him. I was merely pointing out common sense and the common use of terminology, the definition of which you butchered for gaslighting and pushing a political narrative.

Even Republicans in Ohio wont endorse him for Governor.

Irrelevant diversion from the topic.

What do you have to say about your mischaracterization of the use of the term 'illegal'?
What do you have to say about the cited Dem's Replacement Theory?

 

[Jay59]

I gave you the report card.

Nah. Cruz is not popular, nationally.

He's very popular among conservatives nationally.

More importantly, he's very good at building campaign teams.

 

[eohrnberger]

You have no idea what the GRT is or its history. It is a conspiracy theory that elites are planning white genocide.

Odd then this direct quote of Ol' Joe Biden:

Democrats and progressive activists, based on their own rhetoric over the years, subscribe to "replacement theory" more than anyone else. As vice president, Biden himself said that a "constant" and "unrelenting" stream of immigration would reduce Americans of "white European stock" to an "absolute minority," and that this was "a source of our strength."​

Democrats Are Massive Hypocrites on So-Called 'Great Replacement Theory'

Trump's rise should have been a warning sign to Democrats to tone down the talk of demographic triumphalism. Instead, they dialed it up to eleven.

www.newsweek.com

If you think Joe discussing immigration trends is his scheming to wipe-out WASP's in the US, I have some really nice Gulf Coast property that has the ocean beach right at the front door for sale.

The Dem's 'scheme' is pretty clearly pointed out by:

"Democrats are using immigration policy to change the demographics of the United States in a way that would seem to help them politically."​

Democrats Are Massive Hypocrites on So-Called 'Great Replacement Theory'

Trump's rise should have been a warning sign to Democrats to tone down the talk of demographic triumphalism. Instead, they dialed it up to eleven.

www.newsweek.com

Newsweek is no bastion of the right.

To have the opinion that 'The Great Replacement Theory' is a Democrat originated and supported one is accurate and reasonable, in spite of all the denials to the contrary.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

She won the nomination for the democrat party, not the election,

That was an "election". Primaries represent 2 elections, a popular vote and a party delegation vote, she won both.

Sarah Palin ws not the problem with that ticket.

Oh, but she was a problem, she was a terrible candidate.

McCain was.

McCain was not a woman, the discussion is female candidates. Are you having trouble differentiating sexes? Thats hilarious.

Palin was the only reason McCain had a chance at all. He needed conservative credentials.

Beyond the fact that you still lost track of the subject, it is always enjoyable seeing these admissions of how far MAGA's shifted away from maverick GOP members.

We do not elect presidents by way of the popular vote. Ever heard of the electoral college?

Your goalpost was "charisma", not the EC. Popularity is a measure of charisma, in fact I would say it is a direct measure. Hillary won the popular vote, that is "charisma". Don't move your goalposts.

TDS

Unlike the democrat ticket, Trump had a good bench of candidates to pick from. I would not be surprised to see a Vance/Gabbard ticket in 2028.

NAZI boy and Putin girl, whata combo......you do you!

 

[bomberfox]

As long as the criminal traitorous enterprise known as the Republican Party is kept from power, things should return to normal. The problem will be majority, and getting a high percentage of it. That is what will be needed to remove and prosecute the guilty. If ever this country needed trials for those who allowed such things, the time is surely coming.

They wont. I believe we have exhausted all legal possibilities to remove the dictatorship of capital.

 

[hooligan]

He's very popular among conservatives nationally.

Cite, por favor.

 

[Phys251]

Turnout didn’t cost Kamala Harris the election

In fact, marginal voters preferred Trump. So Democrats need to find a new playbook.

www.natesilver.net

OK, so that was a lot of work. So let’s roll these up into three large categories:

• Democrats lost a net of 6.4 million votes from repeat voters switching, mostly to Trump (5.5 million) but some to third parties (0.9 million).
• Then they lost a net of 2.7 million votes due to dropoff voters.⁷
• Further, they lost a net of 0.8 million votes because more new voters went for Trump.

So while Democrats lost ground pretty much every way you can on the balance sheet, the impact of repeat voters switching was about twice as large as from dropoff voters exiting the electorate.

...If you’re good at turning out marginal voters, you’re happy to book the win — but they might not vote again next time.

In past elections, however, new voters were also Democratic, enough to more or less cancel this out. This time, however, the majority of new voters picked Trump.

Instead of gloating about your 2024 win, how about actually governing the country instead of plunging us even further into debt?

 

[maxparrish]

Instead of gloating about your 2024 win, how about actually governing the country instead of plunging us even further into debt?

If you are speaking to me, rest assured I am not gloating about the 2024 election. I refused to vote, but had Harris won I would have been a hair less offended than with Trump.

 

[Phys251]

If you are speaking to me, rest assured I am not gloating about the 2024 election. I refused to vote, but had Harris won I would have been a hair less offended than with Trump.

A lot of righties say that.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Odd then this direct quote of Ol' Joe Biden:

Democrats and progressive activists, based on their own rhetoric over the years, subscribe to "replacement theory" more than anyone else. As vice president, Biden himself said that a "constant" and "unrelenting" stream of immigration would reduce Americans of "white European stock" to an "absolute minority," and that this was "a source of our strength."​

That is not a "direct quote" it is a chopped up set of fragments describing demographic changes, not Joe's or anyone else's description of a "white genocide" conspiracy theory.

You still cannot even fully describe what the great replacement CT is.

​

The Dem's 'scheme' is pretty clearly pointed out by:

"Democrats are using immigration policy to change the demographics of the United States in a way that would seem to help them politically."​

I wouldn't expect anything less from a rightwinger that works for a neo-Confederate nationalist magazine, the "Chronicals".

​

Newsweek is no bastion of the right.

Um, the author of the article definitely is.

To have the opinion that 'The Great Replacement Theory' is a Democrat originated and supported one is accurate and reasonable, in spite of all the denials to the contrary.

It is an absurd opinion made a neo-confederate nationalist that gets reposted by neo-confederate nationalists.