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MSN Article: Does the euro have a future?

Infinite Chaos

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Two down, 14 to go. Ireland and Greece have been bailed out by European taxpayers - and Portugal looks like it could be the next of the 16 eurozone members to topple.

And while Portugal is a casualty the rest of Europe can afford, the next in line - Spain - is too big to bail out (it's bigger than the first three combined). Beyond that, pundits are already talking of Belgium, Italy and even France running into trouble.

No doubt about it, the euro is at some sort of turning point. If the single currency is to survive, it'll have to be under a very different set of rules. And if it can't survive, what might replace it? Here are four different scenarios and what each could mean for the euro.

MSN Article

There are some interesting points and possibilities raised in this article -

  • Abandon the stragglers
  • Germany leaves the Euro
  • Split the Euro into two - neuro (Northern) and pseudo (Southern)
  • Tough it out against the hedge funds and investment bankers
  • Break apart the Euro
 
Abandon the stragglers

Can not be done over night and would be costly for those being kicked out. The debt in question would still be in Euro and hence the value of the debt would explode. Default of epic proportions would be assured. But have no doubt, the speculators would earn trillions!

Germany leaves the Euro

Can not be done over night and would be hugely costly for the German economy.

Split the Euro into two - neuro (Northern) and pseudo (Southern)

Maybe, but doubtful. There would need to be treaty changes and a lot of politics involved.. again will take time, but it is possible.

Tough it out against the hedge funds and investment bankers

Much more likely. They are in many ways already doing that, by calling the doubters of the Spanish banks for pretty much fools (Deutch Bank's CEO). Much of the pressure on Portugal and Spain and Belgium and so on, are driven by speculators. That Belgium is even being mentioned as a default risk is idiotic border-lining to the insane. Most of the Belgium debt is internal. Same goes for Italy (and Japan). The only reason it is being floated by the yanks and British is to destroy the Euro and kill off some competition while making billions. There is so much hysterical fear being pushed by the speculators and their media puppets and very little fact or substance out there.

Break apart the Euro

Wont happen. First off it cant be done over night, which is what the anti-Euro crowd wants. It took 3 years to go from a national currency to the Euro alone on the technical aspect (currency making, redoing banking machines and so on and so on), and I doubt that this could be shortened. The costs of doing this would be huge, and in addition to the cost to business in the long term. Like it or not, going back to the "old days" would mean rising cost for business. Each country would have to go through legalities of setting up a new currency, printing it and floating it on the world markets plus private business having to redo every from cash registers to ATMs to online websites. The time to do this would be years at best and cost each country a lot of money.. and in the end it would only make them more vulnerable to the speculators.

But I have no doubt it would be the Euro-sceptics wet dream if it happened.. even though most are not even in the Euro..

No..a revision on credit default swaps for sovereign states is needed. It should never ever be profitable for anyone to bet on the economic armageddon of a country and then help assure that it happens.

They dont allow it in Vegas so why should they allow it in the financial markets?
 
If Spain goes down the euro might break up. Germany has been very generous so far, but I don't think they'll (the EU mongs) be able to convince them of doubling the current fund to 1500 gazillion euro.

They should let these countries fail, let investors and banks take their losses and leave it up to the member states to decide whether they want to save the banks who will get in trouble because of it. That's also not without risk, but at least you can calculate the losses. I fear the current solution will result in an even bigger bubble. The problem is cheap lending, but still we allow banks to advise customers of buying Irish debt and why shouldn't they, eventhough the rates are far too low they will be saved, there are no risks...
 
If Spain goes down the euro might break up. Germany has been very generous so far, but I don't think they'll (the EU mongs) be able to convince them of doubling the current fund to 1500 gazillion euro.

Problem is there is no reason for Spain to go down. The "bad banks" have been dealt with, and the deficit is falling.. The debt level is still low compared to most European countries. As it stands now, the critics of the Eurozone cant even make up their minds. Months ago it was a run on Spain because of its supposed massive debt (one of the lowest in Europe) and massive deficit (now falling considerably), but now that has switched to be a problem for Spanish banks... and based on what.. nothing substantial. It is all talk and no facts or figures to back up those accusations.. and that is the problem. When the head of Deutch Bank comes out and calls the attack on Spanish banks for overblown then you got to wonder.

Many of the critics who are pushing this idea that Spanish banks are some how Ireland 2.0, have not done their homework. For one, during the boom in building in Spain, the houses were not sold to the Spanish but the rest of Europe. The loans done were more than often based in non Spanish banks or backed up by funds in non Spanish banks. Now in Ireland it was every tom dick and harry that leant money to buy and build. In Spain, we have young people living at home to their mid 30s because they cant afford buying a house/apartment or even renting. So the amount of bad debt in Spanish banks when compared to Ireland or anyone else is almost non existent (relatively speaking). Plus the banking rules and regulations in Spain are far more hardcore than it ever was in Ireland.

When a non Spaniard wanted a house loan, then they did not go to Banco Santandar.. they went to Barcleys, Deutch Bank and all the others because of language barriers and familiarity. Did the Spanish banks participate in the building boom.. of course, but not the same way as in Ireland where the whole economy was built around it in many ways. The Spanish banks like BBVA and Banco Santandar are huge banks because they have expanded outside Spain.. like the US, UK and South America.

They should let these countries fail, let investors and banks take their losses and leave it up to the member states to decide whether they want to save the banks who will get in trouble because of it. That's also not without risk, but at least you can calculate the losses. I fear the current solution will result in an even bigger bubble. The problem is cheap lending, but still we allow banks to advise customers of buying Irish debt and why shouldn't they, eventhough the rates are far too low they will be saved, there are no risks...

They first have to define the freaking problem. As it stands now it has gone from a sovereign debt problem to a banking problem and soon I bet it will be a "company debt" problem. Each country is in a unique situation. Ireland had its banks (like Iceland) grow on debt and a building boom. Spain had too much concentrated in the building sector and that hurt the economy and made unemployment double.. plus of course structural problems. Greece lied. Portugal has structural problems (but hey who does not these days). Belgium is in a political cluster****, Italy has a moron as head of state, and so on and so on. We keep hearing about an "European debt crisis" and yet in many cases the debt is worse elsewhere... go figure!

As I have said for the start, this has more to do with speculators and big banks making a killing on betting on a negative than anything else. For one, the UK is not being targeted despite it having many of the same problems as Ireland and Spain combined. THe US is also not being targeted despite serious doubts on Bank of America and other banks.. I mean how banks have failed in the US so far this year? over 100.. The markets panicked when 2 local Spanish banks folded (banks that were expected to fold) .. come on..

To me it is economic warfare being driven by the US and UK against the rest of Europe at the moment.. and it is time that the Europeans get a par of balls and fight back.
 
Problem is there is no reason for Spain to go down. The "bad banks" have been dealt with, and the deficit is falling.. The debt level is still low compared to most European countries. As it stands now, the critics of the Eurozone cant even make up their minds. Months ago it was a run on Spain because of its supposed massive debt (one of the lowest in Europe) and massive deficit (now falling considerably), but now that has switched to be a problem for Spanish banks... and based on what.. nothing substantial. It is all talk and no facts or figures to back up those accusations.. and that is the problem. When the head of Deutch Bank comes out and calls the attack on Spanish banks for overblown then you got to wonder.
The dutch minister of finance also criticised Spain, my guess is he wants to keep pressure on them. Spain had a big mouth beginning of the year but as soon as Greece came around the corner they figured they might take some steps back in cutting their deficit. Can't blame them, but the response from the countries who own their debt is also quite predictable.

Many of the critics who are pushing this idea that Spanish banks are some how Ireland 2.0, have not done their homework. For one, during the boom in building in Spain, the houses were not sold to the Spanish but the rest of Europe. The loans done were more than often based in non Spanish banks or backed up by funds in non Spanish banks. Now in Ireland it was every tom dick and harry that leant money to buy and build. In Spain, we have young people living at home to their mid 30s because they cant afford buying a house/apartment or even renting. So the amount of bad debt in Spanish banks when compared to Ireland or anyone else is almost non existent (relatively speaking). Plus the banking rules and regulations in Spain are far more hardcore than it ever was in Ireland.
House prices in Spain are artificially high and you just explained why. Bad news for home-owners in Spain, bad news for the banks who financed these homes. Interest is and has been too low and it will have to go up. In return, house prices will have to go down. We shouldn't stop that, unless you think your fellow countrymen shouldn't be homeowners. Unlike you, I firmly believe in property owning democracies.

When a non Spaniard wanted a house loan, then they did not go to Banco Santandar.. they went to Barcleys, Deutch Bank and all the others because of language barriers and familiarity. Did the Spanish banks participate in the building boom.. of course, but not the same way as in Ireland where the whole economy was built around it in many ways. The Spanish banks like BBVA and Banco Santandar are huge banks because they have expanded outside Spain.. like the US, UK and South America.
Either I didn't get it or you made an error here. We were talking about Spains collective debt, largely owned by northern european banks. I agree with you that they took the risk and I feel no responsibility to bail out their investors, Spain should be able to default its debt. Now I don't know the figures, I'll give you that, I don't work for Spains central bank. I am close to the fire though, and I know they're talking about a 450 billion 'bail out'.

They first have to define the freaking problem. As it stands now it has gone from a sovereign debt problem to a banking problem and soon I bet it will be a "company debt" problem. Each country is in a unique situation. Ireland had its banks (like Iceland) grow on debt and a building boom. Spain had too much concentrated in the building sector and that hurt the economy and made unemployment double.. plus of course structural problems. Greece lied. Portugal has structural problems (but hey who does not these days). Belgium is in a political cluster****, Italy has a moron as head of state, and so on and so on. We keep hearing about an "European debt crisis" and yet in many cases the debt is worse elsewhere... go figure!

Is this in referrence to the US? 50% of the worlds economy, the leading currency, we'll go down long before the US does, all our pension funds are heavily invested in the US.

As I have said for the start, this has more to do with speculators and big banks making a killing on betting on a negative than anything else. For one, the UK is not being targeted despite it having many of the same problems as Ireland and Spain combined. THe US is also not being targeted despite serious doubts on Bank of America and other banks.. I mean how banks have failed in the US so far this year? over 100.. The markets panicked when 2 local Spanish banks folded (banks that were expected to fold) .. come on..

You said it from the start but two of the four countries we discussed earlier this year, have accepted help. You use words like 'targeting' and 'attacked' but we're actually talking about the unwillingness to invest more in debts, about getting little interest for a rather large default risk. We can discuss the risk but at the end of the day it's none of our business, it's not our money.

To me it is economic warfare being driven by the US and UK against the rest of Europe at the moment.. and it is time that the Europeans get a par of balls and fight back.

It's certainly not in the advantage of the US, the euro dropped to $1.30, not in favor of the american government, their producers have to compete with a low euro while their investment banks and pension funds are seeing their huge euro assets diminish in value.
 
The dutch minister of finance also criticised Spain, my guess is he wants to keep pressure on them. Spain had a big mouth beginning of the year but as soon as Greece came around the corner they figured they might take some steps back in cutting their deficit. Can't blame them, but the response from the countries who own their debt is also quite predictable.

No Spain took over the EU at the beginning of the year and that was when the focus suddenly switched to Spain. When they ended their term, then suddenly the massive focus went away. As for a big mouth.. all countries have big mouths. Italy, hell even the Dutch and Belgians have big mouths :)

House prices in Spain are artificially high and you just explained why. Bad news for home-owners in Spain, bad news for the banks who financed these homes. Interest is and has been too low and it will have to go up. In return, house prices will have to go down. We shouldn't stop that, unless you think your fellow countrymen shouldn't be homeowners. Unlike you, I firmly believe in property owning democracies.

Yes house prices were artificially high, but in many cases it was not Spanish banks that provided the funding for the house buying.. it was Irish, British and German banks... something the present media storm forgets to mention.

House prices have come down and home ownership is going up since now far more can afford it, but it is still not what it should be imo. Although of course prices have still risen in the rich areas haha.. typical. But over all prices have fallen 30ish% I believe last I looked (varies from region to region). Unlike Ireland, people want to live in Spain and/or have a house here due to the weather and food and lifestyle.

And they aint my countrymen :)

Either I didn't get it or you made an error here. We were talking about Spains collective debt, largely owned by northern european banks. I agree with you that they took the risk and I feel no responsibility to bail out their investors, Spain should be able to default its debt. Now I don't know the figures, I'll give you that, I don't work for Spains central bank. I am close to the fire though, and I know they're talking about a 450 billion 'bail out'.

And again.. who says that Spain's collective debt is owned by northern European banks....I find it very hard to believe. Sure state debt, but that is still last I looked under 70% of GDP, which is less than Germany and the US even. As for Spanish companies and housing owned by Spaniards.. doubt that also. Spain has some of the biggest and most profitable banks out there.

Spanish as a people dont like taking loans out. They dont use credit cards that much. I would take the information you are spreading with a huge grain of salt and check where that information is coming from and what the possible motive of said persons are. At least have some proof of it.. yes you can say the same of me!.. I dont, but I do know how Spaniards act around loaning money and home ownership.

Is this in referrence to the US? 50% of the worlds economy, the leading currency, we'll go down long before the US does, all our pension funds are heavily invested in the US.

The US is not 50% of the worlds economy. It is about 24% last I looked. The EU is larger at 28.5%. As for leading currency.. happens when you bully your way after a major war. As for our pension funds being heavily invested in the US.. you are right.. as are our banks.. invested in the **** that their financial institutions were peddling during the last 2 decades. And that is the crut of the problem. Most European banks (non Irish) that got in trouble was because they had invested in ****ty US assets. And they are invested there because the American's spend like their is no tomorrow, something that American's wont be doing the next many years thanks to their massive debt load.

You said it from the start but two of the four countries we discussed earlier this year, have accepted help. You use words like 'targeting' and 'attacked' but we're actually talking about the unwillingness to invest more in debts, about getting little interest for a rather large default risk. We can discuss the risk but at the end of the day it's none of our business, it's not our money.

Oh but it is our money. The banks are using our money to break our own country....

And as for default risk. You have to take a look at each country.

Greece lied. They deserved what happened to them. They need to get their house in order, no doubt about that. But Greece aint Ireland, Portugal or Spain.

Ireland did not regulate it banking sector to make it sustainable and then on top of that gave the banks a 100% debt guarantee... a really stupid political move. They brought it on themselves. Ironically the UK is not much different.. bank wise, nor the US. Growth the last decade funded by debt. Could they have handled it without a bailout? yes, but the markets would not allow it because they saw profit in forcing Ireland to the brink.

You cant compare the two countries what so ever. And neither can you compare Spain. Spain's debt is one of the lowest in Europe, it also has a falling deficit (more than expected too). Its banking sector is highly regulated and if a bank even remotely is in trouble, then it is sized by the state bank and dealt with. There have been 3 bank failures in Spain since the crisis started and all expected (there have been over 100 in the US for example). Yes Spain has an unemployment issue... but the media and the supposed analysts always forget to mention that Spain always have had a high unemployment even when it was growing more than the US. This is a structural problem, and they are dealing with it thanks to this crisis. Spain is far far from perfect labour wise, but considering what it has been through, then it has come far but has far to go yet. And let me remind you.. Spain had a budget surplus before the crisis and an unemployment rate of around 10%.

It's certainly not in the advantage of the US, the euro dropped to $1.30, not in favor of the american government, their producers have to compete with a low euro while their investment banks and pension funds are seeing their huge euro assets diminish in value.

Screw that.. there is more profit in betting on a negative.. derivatives.... that is what it is all about these days. Getting an insurance on a negative and making sure it happens. That is why there is a profit in making Greece and Ireland going bust. Goldman Sachs made billions on Greece going down the tubes, and that was AFTER they sold Greece debt and help them hide it. As long as the financial industry is allowed to bet on a negative and help create that negative without any consequences, then we will see country after country be targeted for profit.

The Euro is overpriced any ways, it should be around 1.20. Only reason the Euro is overpriced imo is because in part speculation in currency (normal) and the fact that China and the Middle East have been threatening to dump the dollar. The only viable alternative to the dollar would be the Euro.
 
Spain Auctions EU2.5 Billion of Debt; Bonds Gain After Sale
Spain sold 2.5 billion euros ($3.3 billion) of notes as a surge in yields bolstered demand in the country’s first bond auction since Ireland’s bailout. Bond prices rose after the sale.

The Treasury sold the securities due in October 2013 today at an average yield of 3.717 percent, Bank of Spain data showed today, compared with a yield of 2.527 percent at the last sale on Oct. 7 and below the 3.937 percent for the same bond in secondary markets before the auction. Demand was 2.27 times the amount sold, compared with a bid-to-cover of 2.16 at the October sale. The indicative range for the sale was 1.75 billion euros to 2.75 billion euros.

--snip--

Spanish bonds rose for a second day on speculation the European Central Bank may take new measures to stem the sovereign debt crisis at its monthly meeting. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a news conference at 2:30 p.m. today in Frankfurt.
Lower Debt Auction proves a success

Today's successful sale of Spanish debt has certainly eased fears about the Euro - today's announcement by the ECB of further Quantitative Easing type measures also seemed to help - however I don't think the end of the speculation over the other PIGS has been reached yet.
 
Today's successful sale of Spanish debt has certainly eased fears about the Euro - today's announcement by the ECB of further Quantitative Easing type measures also seemed to help - however I don't think the end of the speculation over the other PIGS has been reached yet.

The sale was never ever in doubt. Again more hype and fear from speculators to drive up rates and push Spain into the dirt.. I would wager that they all have shorted the EURO and are praying for it to dissolve. Hope if there are any Europeans among those speculators that they get arrested for crimes against the states of Europe... yes wishful thinking but god I hate them.
 
No Spain took over the EU at the beginning of the year and that was when the focus suddenly switched to Spain. When they ended their term, then suddenly the massive focus went away. As for a big mouth.. all countries have big mouths. Italy, hell even the Dutch and Belgians have big mouths :)
Quoting the ECB, Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said in August: "Spain will need to make extra budget cuts in 2011 and must not be over-optimistic about economic growth".

Yes house prices were artificially high, but in many cases it was not Spanish banks that provided the funding for the house buying.. it was Irish, British and German banks... something the present media storm forgets to mention.
House prices have come down and home ownership is going up since now far more can afford it, but it is still not what it should be imo. Although of course prices have still risen in the rich areas haha.. typical. But over all prices have fallen 30ish% I believe last I looked (varies from region to region). Unlike Ireland, people want to live in Spain and/or have a house here due to the weather and food and lifestyle.
And they aint my countrymen :)

Don't know the specific situation in Germany or Denmark, but in my country I see the same problem. Newcomers can't buy a home or have to take huge mortgages. They will stop paying once houseprices come tumbling down. It doesn't matter which banks provided the funding, the question is whether we are willing to reward their risk taking with public funds. I do not.

And again.. who says that Spain's collective debt is owned by northern European banks....I find it very hard to believe. Sure state debt, but that is still last I looked under 70% of GDP, which is less than Germany and the US even. As for Spanish companies and housing owned by Spaniards.. doubt that also. Spain has some of the biggest and most profitable banks out there.
Germany has more reserves and its economy is a lot stronger or, at least, have a reputation for having a strong economy. The american economy grows. That's the heart of the problem, the prospect of a growing GDP. Without it, 70% suddenly becomes a huge burden.

Spanish as a people dont like taking loans out. They dont use credit cards that much. I would take the information you are spreading with a huge grain of salt and check where that information is coming from and what the possible motive of said persons are. At least have some proof of it.. yes you can say the same of me!.. I dont, but I do know how Spaniards act around loaning money and home ownership.
That bit of information came from an interview between dutch speaking EU mp's. The what if came about and, given the size of the Spanish economy, I didn't find the number very surprising.

The US is not 50% of the worlds economy. It is about 24% last I looked. The EU is larger at 28.5%. As for leading currency.. happens when you bully your way after a major war. As for our pension funds being heavily invested in the US.. you are right.. as are our banks.. invested in the **** that their financial institutions were peddling during the last 2 decades. And that is the crut of the problem. Most European banks (non Irish) that got in trouble was because they had invested in ****ty US assets. And they are invested there because the American's spend like their is no tomorrow, something that American's wont be doing the next many years thanks to their massive debt load.
You're right about the GDP, and 50% is exaggerated, but you forget they've been collecting a large percentage of the worlds wealth.

Oh but it is our money. The banks are using our money to break our own country....
?

And as for default risk. You have to take a look at each country.
Greece lied. They deserved what happened to them. They need to get their house in order, no doubt about that. But Greece aint Ireland, Portugal or Spain.
Ireland did not regulate it banking sector to make it sustainable and then on top of that gave the banks a 100% debt guarantee... a really stupid political move. They brought it on themselves. Ironically the UK is not much different.. bank wise, nor the US. Growth the last decade funded by debt. Could they have handled it without a bailout? yes, but the markets would not allow it because they saw profit in forcing Ireland to the brink.
You cant compare the two countries what so ever. And neither can you compare Spain. Spain's debt is one of the lowest in Europe, it also has a falling deficit (more than expected too). Its banking sector is highly regulated and if a bank even remotely is in trouble, then it is sized by the state bank and dealt with. There have been 3 bank failures in Spain since the crisis started and all expected (there have been over 100 in the US for example). Yes Spain has an unemployment issue... but the media and the supposed analysts always forget to mention that Spain always have had a high unemployment even when it was growing more than the US. This is a structural problem, and they are dealing with it thanks to this crisis. Spain is far far from perfect labour wise, but considering what it has been through, then it has come far but has far to go yet. And let me remind you.. Spain had a budget surplus before the crisis and an unemployment rate of around 10%.
Before the crisis Spain represented 50% of the entire growth in the eurozone...
I can compare all these countries because in all of em the problem is slowing economies, deficit spending, rising unemployment, tumbling house prices, malinvestment and bad loans. Most Eu countries face these problems, but luckily my country doesn't depend as much on foreign investment. However, if our economy doesn't start growing soon, we'll go down just the same.

Screw that.. there is more profit in betting on a negative.. derivatives.... that is what it is all about these days. Getting an insurance on a negative and making sure it happens. That is why there is a profit in making Greece and Ireland going bust. Goldman Sachs made billions on Greece going down the tubes, and that was AFTER they sold Greece debt and help them hide it. As long as the financial industry is allowed to bet on a negative and help create that negative without any consequences, then we will see country after country be targeted for profit.
It is quite common for banks to take out credit protection, buy short trades against loan and swap obligations. SG was also accused of shorting the american housing market while they actually lost money during the mortgage meltdown. Short trades versus long trades. And why focus on GS, what about AG?

The Euro is overpriced any ways, it should be around 1.20. Only reason the Euro is overpriced imo is because in part speculation in currency (normal) and the fact that China and the Middle East have been threatening to dump the dollar. The only viable alternative to the dollar would be the Euro.
Are you advising me to short the euro, the dollar or both? :2razz:
 
Quoting the ECB, Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo said in August: "Spain will need to make extra budget cuts in 2011 and must not be over-optimistic about economic growth".

And? That has already been done or is in the planing stages.. nothing new there. Not that it will help in the short run on growth though, but /shrug.

Don't know the specific situation in Germany or Denmark, but in my country I see the same problem. Newcomers can't buy a home or have to take huge mortgages. They will stop paying once houseprices come tumbling down. It doesn't matter which banks provided the funding, the question is whether we are willing to reward their risk taking with public funds. I do not.

It is so in all countries, but the difference is that by the time a young person is in his/her mid 20s then they usually have the possiblity to get a loan because of they are in employment.. no later than the late 20s.. In Spain it is very common for middle 30s to be living at home, and not unusual for early 40s doing so. There are even many cases where children take over the parents house..

Germany has more reserves and its economy is a lot stronger or, at least, have a reputation for having a strong economy. The american economy grows. That's the heart of the problem, the prospect of a growing GDP. Without it, 70% suddenly becomes a huge burden.

No 70% will never be a burden unless someone makes it a burden.. not even 100%. Countries have had that high debt to GDP ratios for far longer than many realize. Japan has lived with 200+% debt for decades.. it is all internal. Italy is the same.. most of it is internal. Same with Belgium. Internal debt is hardly the same problem as external. But this week suddenly the American "experts" saw that Belgium and Italy had near or over 100% vs GDP debt.. ohhh they must be next on the list.. no they wont ... fraking morons. That would mean Japan was before Spain!

Spain grew for the last decade plus more than most industrialized countries and there is plenty of prospect here still if they fix the structural issues.

As for American growth.. are we talking real growth or the fake growth of the last 10 years?

That bit of information came from an interview between dutch speaking EU mp's. The what if came about and, given the size of the Spanish economy, I didn't find the number very surprising.

Okay, but as I said, the only nations in Europe that has the "hots" for taking out debt (personal) has been Ireland and the UK. They always have had far higher personal unsecured debt ratios than anyone else in Europe.. usually around double. To me it seems the Dutch MEPs were talking out their arses with no actual facts to back up their accusations. Even the Dutch hate personal debt relatively speaking. Last I looked.. the average American had 8000 dollars plus of personal unsecured debt, the average Brit 7000 dollars and the average European had 3000 dollars if that even.

You're right about the GDP, and 50% is exaggerated, but you forget they've been collecting a large percentage of the worlds wealth.

Not any more. Most wealth in the world is in Asia and the Middle east now. Only reason people invest in the US, is because the expect American's to spend like they always have..


Banks are using your money to play the markets. That includes buying crap assets from the US, and getting insurance against it. Among those crap assets from the US, was things like Greek debt... And then there are those European banks that actually DO bet against countries because there is profit in it.

Before the crisis Spain represented 50% of the entire growth in the eurozone...

Yes because Germany was still hit by the unification. Spain's growth was due to in part the building industry and yes they have to change that now. However like it or not, Spain has a lot of potential especially considering it is still the gateway to the Spanish speaking part of the world, which is quite a large number of countries. I aint saying it is going to be easy, but considering what Spain has gone through and still has to go through... that they are near 0% growth if not a bit over ... is quite amazing considering they have 20% unemployment.

I can compare all these countries because in all of em the problem is slowing economies, deficit spending, rising unemployment, tumbling house prices, malinvestment and bad loans. Most Eu countries face these problems, but luckily my country doesn't depend as much on foreign investment. However, if our economy doesn't start growing soon, we'll go down just the same.

And that is only if you agree with the idea "growth > all".. I dont. What is needed is to maintain the status quo at a minimum. Now we are just coming out of a recession so yes some growth is needed to make the jobs and all that, but in principle we should not desire an economy that is required to grow 3% a year to just maintain status quo.. it is unrealistic to say the least, especially in the medium and long terms. We need a rethink on our economies and what we want as a society. Yes there is a lot of changes need on regulation and making it easier to do business, but in no way do I want to risk what we have built in Europe just because some American economist thinks it is silly to help the vulnerable in society. They might like the idea of a class society with people dieing on the streets, but I dont.

It is quite common for banks to take out credit protection, buy short trades against loan and swap obligations. SG was also accused of shorting the american housing market while they actually lost money during the mortgage meltdown. Short trades versus long trades. And why focus on GS, what about AG?

I got no problem with banks taking out credit protection.

I got a problem when the banks take out credit protection and then make sure that the credit protection is needed... which is what especially American banks and financial institutions have been doing.. aka speculators.

When a group have the power to influence markets by spreading rumours, then you have a clear problem and no one is addressing it.

When an "expert" from an American financial institution who happens to be betting against a company or country can go on tv and say "I think X company/country is in trouble" and not explain why.. and then the media outlets go with the story and the rumour basically becomes fact.... then you have a serious problem. And that is exactly what is happening.. before the crash it was the other way around.. so called experts talking stocks and countries UP.. even the anchors of these stations.. I still cant forget CNBC singing Lehman Brothers praises a day before they went belly up... because they had heard it from several "experts".

For example.. Spanish unemployment. Most "experts" on the major financial channels coming from America paint it as a horrible near revolution type situation.. none of them even mention that much of the unemployment is due to structural issues and not the economy per say, and that even during the big growth years of the last decade, Spain had 10% unemployment. This is highly relevant information that they either ignore or dont have due to their own arrogance and stupidity.

Another example.. if you listen to most American financial "experts", especially those from CATO, France is hell on earth with massive unemployment and riots in the streets... and how realistic is that exactly.. not at all.. More growth and less unemployment in France than their own back yard.. go figure! If we keep listening to those idiots then we would all in Europe have to riot every day to meet their world view..

Point is, all this negative talk coming from over the Atlantic and in some ways the UK, drive the markets far far more than the actual facts do... where a rumour about people lining up in front of a very solid Spanish bank suddenly spreads through out the world as the bank is in trouble, when in fact it was because people were getting numbers for a charity marathon run.. Why? Oh yea it was a Spanish bank, and we have been told Spain and its banks are in the ****ter .. after all American's dont lie do they?

Are you advising me to short the euro, the dollar or both? :2razz:

Dollar for the simple reason.. the US is in the same death spire as the British Empire was, and every other major empire before that. The Euro might fail, but so will the dollar.. now the time period.. well.. for both is years if not decades :)
 
I'm lazy Pete, plz accept my cherry picking apologies in advance.

No 70% will never be a burden unless someone makes it a burden.. not even 100%. Countries have had that high debt to GDP ratios for far longer than many realize. Japan has lived with 200+% debt for decades.. it is all internal. Italy is the same.. most of it is internal. Same with Belgium. Internal debt is hardly the same problem as external. But this week suddenly the American "experts" saw that Belgium and Italy had near or over 100% vs GDP debt.. ohhh they must be next on the list.. no they wont ... fraking morons. That would mean Japan was before Spain!
Currently, in the entire eurozone, even NL, deficits exceeds growth. Untill we turn that around, we're all heading for a default. I'm a pessimist by nature but I guess there's no use betting on the apocalypse.

As for American growth.. are we talking real growth or the fake growth of the last 10 years?
Well, you should take those numbers with a grain of salt, that's for sure.

Not any more. Most wealth in the world is in Asia and the Middle east now. Only reason people invest in the US, is because the expect American's to spend like they always have..
It's moving, because production is moving to Asia, but as far as the means are concerned, americans own roughly 40%, and europeans own 30% of the pie.

Banks are using your money to play the markets. That includes buying crap assets from the US, and getting insurance against it. Among those crap assets from the US, was things like Greek debt... And then there are those European banks that actually DO bet against countries because there is profit in it.
Ah, I get it.
To me the problem is my failing central bank and government. To give some examples; they failed to control a bank from Iceland, who was allowed to borrow half billion, turned out they borrowed 4. They allowed their banking buddy's to take huge risks and reap the short term benfits. In turn, the state had to pour 3000 euro's per capita in bailing out one of these banks, guess what, the CEO still got out with a golden parachute. Why can't I lose 70 billion euros and collect my reward?

And that is only if you agree with the idea "growth > all".. I dont. What is needed is to maintain the status quo at a minimum. Now we are just coming out of a recession so yes some growth is needed to make the jobs and all that, but in principle we should not desire an economy that is required to grow 3% a year to just maintain status quo.. it is unrealistic to say the least, especially in the medium and long terms. We need a rethink on our economies and what we want as a society. Yes there is a lot of changes need on regulation and making it easier to do business, but in no way do I want to risk what we have built in Europe just because some American economist thinks it is silly to help the vulnerable in society. They might like the idea of a class society with people dieing on the streets, but I dont.
A very interesting topic I would like to explore in a separate thread. I agree with you that our current economic strategy is unsustainable, we're consuming our living space with this >3% bs.

I got no problem with banks taking out credit protection.
I got a problem when the banks take out credit protection and then make sure that the credit protection is needed... which is what especially American banks and financial institutions have been doing.. aka speculators.
When a group have the power to influence markets by spreading rumours, then you have a clear problem and no one is addressing it.
When an "expert" from an American financial institution who happens to be betting against a company or country can go on tv and say "I think X company/country is in trouble" and not explain why.. and then the media outlets go with the story and the rumour basically becomes fact.... then you have a serious problem. And that is exactly what is happening.. before the crash it was the other way around.. so called experts talking stocks and countries UP.. even the anchors of these stations.. I still cant forget CNBC singing Lehman Brothers praises a day before they went belly up... because they had heard it from several "experts".
For example.. Spanish unemployment. Most "experts" on the major financial channels coming from America paint it as a horrible near revolution type situation.. none of them even mention that much of the unemployment is due to structural issues and not the economy per say, and that even during the big growth years of the last decade, Spain had 10% unemployment. This is highly relevant information that they either ignore or dont have due to their own arrogance and stupidity.
Another example.. if you listen to most American financial "experts", especially those from CATO, France is hell on earth with massive unemployment and riots in the streets... and how realistic is that exactly.. not at all.. More growth and less unemployment in France than their own back yard.. go figure! If we keep listening to those idiots then we would all in Europe have to riot every day to meet their world view..
Point is, all this negative talk coming from over the Atlantic and in some ways the UK, drive the markets far far more than the actual facts do... where a rumour about people lining up in front of a very solid Spanish bank suddenly spreads through out the world as the bank is in trouble, when in fact it was because people were getting numbers for a charity marathon run.. Why? Oh yea it was a Spanish bank, and we have been told Spain and its banks are in the ****ter .. after all American's dont lie do they?
In that case, we shouldn't worry about getting our money back from Greece and Ireland should we?
 
I'm lazy Pete, plz accept my cherry picking apologies in advance.

No worries as long as you accept mine too! :)

Currently, in the entire eurozone, even NL, deficits exceeds growth. Untill we turn that around, we're all heading for a default. I'm a pessimist by nature but I guess there's no use betting on the apocalypse.

Currently the entire Eurozone is coming out of the worst recession since the 1930s.

Well, you should take those numbers with a grain of salt, that's for sure.

I do. I found most American statistics are highly selective to say the least.. look at the unemployment numbers. But that was not my point. Most of the growth in the last decade was because of rising housing prices and the ability of Americans to get money that way.. real wages were stagnant and without income increase you cant grow. Not saying European statistics are better, but they are more transparent and according to international norms for the most part.

It's moving, because production is moving to Asia, but as far as the means are concerned, americans own roughly 40%, and europeans own 30% of the pie.

Production has been moving to Asia since the 1950s, as has wealth. And it is how you define it.. if we take wealth as GDP.. then Europe > US. If wealth is money invested.. yes the US > Europe, but that is only because American's spend far more than Europeans .. aka consumption. So money moves to where there is profit. I doubt that American's will at least the next decade spend as much as they once did.. they are too heavily in debt and loosing manufacturing jobs faster than Europe.

Ah, I get it.
To me the problem is my failing central bank and government. To give some examples; they failed to control a bank from Iceland, who was allowed to borrow half billion, turned out they borrowed 4. They allowed their banking buddy's to take huge risks and reap the short term benfits. In turn, the state had to pour 3000 euro's per capita in bailing out one of these banks, guess what, the CEO still got out with a golden parachute. Why can't I lose 70 billion euros and collect my reward?

Yes I understand and why did the central bank and government fail? Because of pressure and lobbying from the banking sector. The countries where banks were hit the hardest overall (UK, Ireland, USA) all had very lax regulation, and where the regulation it self was written in part or in whole by the banking sector themselves. Sure the politicians have plenty of blame by first off getting greedy and letting the banks run amok, but in the end it all goes back to the banking and financial sector.

Take the sub-prime mortgage problem that started it all. Why did it happen? Oh it happened because there was a government that had lassiez-faire as a method of governing, that the markets could regulate themselves..., and a government that deregulated the system at the behest of the banking and financial sector. This in turn made it possible to make new financial packages along with an unregulated loan market where pizza delivery men could become loan officers and push **** loans on ignorant poor. This made the housing sector go nuts and prices go up and up, which in turn made re-mortgaging your home profitable... and so on and so on.

The core of the problem was and is the financial sector is not accountable for its miss-deeds.. sure there is blame in the political arena as well, but the core blame is the financial sector and no country has the balls to not only say so, but to do anything about it. Hell Ireland gave a blanket get out of jail free card to the banks and that pulled the whole country into the ****ter. The UK nationalised several banks to save their financial industry.. and the US bailed out most of the major banks and have received next to nothing in return and the laws and regulations that got the banks into the mess are still on the books ...

A very interesting topic I would like to explore in a separate thread. I agree with you that our current economic strategy is unsustainable, we're consuming our living space with this >3% bs.

:)

In that case, we shouldn't worry about getting our money back from Greece and Ireland should we?

Depends on over how long term we are talking about. The UK paid back the US on WW1 loans almost 90 years after. The markets are fully set up for a quick profit .. instant results, instant gratification. Hence countries are not given any time to fix their problems (often caused by the markets and banks ironically) and are pushed into crisis because the markets can earn more or faster by forcing them into bankruptcy than they would if they left them alone to work it out. And dont mix Greece into this, Greece was and is a very special case. Ireland on the other hand could have fixed the problem themselves, I have no doubt about that.. would take decades, but it could be done.

Both the UK and my own country of Denmark were on the brink of bankruptcy in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Now Denmark has one the healthiest economies around with 4% unemployment and very little external debt. It took 30 years but it was done and the markets ignored us or let us go on with it. Had it been 1980 now and the markets were acting the same way.. trust me, Denmark would be asking for bailout and worse. Same with the UK.
 
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That a persistent Euro bear has again described the Euro as having reached a potential existential turning point is not really all that surprising. If one considers the logistical and psychological exit barriers that would need to be surmounted to engineer any of the options other than 'toughing it out,' it is clear that none of those options are likely in the near-term or medium-term. Moreover, the odds of a chain reaction debt crisis cascading to Portugal or Italy and then Spain are also relatively low. France is not in any serious risk at present.

Does anyone remember all the breathless, even wild-eyed predictions of Euro parity with the U.S. dollar that were made in the spring? As the year moves toward a close, none of those who made such predictions are calling attentiont to their wild claims. Why not? Because, like some of the traders during that frenzied time, they were swept up in the short-term panic that was underway, lost sight of objective fundamentals/market reality, and ran blindly with their emotions (not exactly the best approach for an analyst or adviser).
 
Not to be cynical but it seems like the Deutsche Mark is making a come back, and its called the Euro.
 
Should the Euro collapse, expect the collapse of the european economies as the various banks go bankrupt. Greece has most of its debts denominated in Euros I believe with some of it listed in USD. Should the Euro go "poof" what currency is Greek debt going to be denominated in. I have a feeling the debt does not have a contractual rider stating should the Euro no longer exist greek debt will be readusted to the German mark. The Greeks will push for it to be denominated in the greek currrency foreign debt holders in USD or their own currency. The greeks would of course should they win the fight to get their debt valued in their own currency devalue it making paying back debt easier. The european banks that own that debt will take a massive write down on that debt. What the same process go through Ireland, Portugal, etc and the "healthy" banks of europe in Germany and Austria among others will be bankrupt. A general widespread collapse of the european economic system will be the result. Something that would not just remain in Europe but spread to the US
 
Can not be done over night and would be costly for those being kicked out. The debt in question would still be in Euro and hence the value of the debt would explode. Default of epic proportions would be assured. But have no doubt, the speculators would earn trillions!



Can not be done over night and would be hugely costly for the German economy.

Pete, not long ago you dismissed the idea of the Euro breaking down as completely "admissible". You had utmost faith in the structure of this institution but the fact is, the Euro and the EU have let you down and failed in regards to properly investigating the budgets of member governments and properly pressurizing the banks and appropriate countries against wasteful spending during the run up to this crises when alarms began to sound. The prospect of breakdown is no longer an "impossibility".

I mean, is the EU's sole purpose to provide a front for market integration? Or is it their to also ensure sustainable and foreseeable prosperity? In which case, it failed to properly foresee what was happening in banks and spending all over Europe and prompting action as a result.

The EU should have taken more responsibility in monitoring the budgets of member nations and taking appropriate actions. The EMU's negligence extended so far as to not even investigate the monetary statistics of member nations but rather "take their word for it", and thus the problems of Greece where born.

Truth is the Euro does not convict governments to fiscal responsibility by controlling central interest, it has in fact given governments a solution to their high interest borrowing problems. Ireland even going so far as to join the Euro to sustain and exasperate there dangerous trend of borrowing.

The PIGS have all become victim to anglo-saxon-style economics of borrowing to sustain boom. The EMU failed to properly investigate the Greek governments budget and greased the wheels of economic uncertainty, and the EU was well aware of the boom of the Portugese/Spanish/Irish economies.

In secondary school, students are taught a very basic yet fundamental concept of economics; first boom then bust. How did this simple concept evade EU administration? Was this not, as proclaimed by some, a world class market union?

If no light continues to shine at the end of the tunnel, and no turn of fortunes expected in the PIGS, then Germany may well assess its risks and decide the bail out bills and the sliding German stocks due to European fears cost more than the withdrawal of Euro membership.

It, as you said, cannot be done overnight. But maybe Germans will decide to take steps to reintroduce a domestic currency over the years whose strength is determined by none other than Germany itself, which will no longer make it vulnerable to the boom and busts of other nations. A German currency will inevitably reflect on its purchasing power and high economic output which would likely provide a much more viable and sustainable solution for the German economy.
 
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[*]Split the Euro into two - neuro (Northern) and pseudo (Southern)

Two reasons why this would not work. Firstly, the names are crap. :2razz:

Secondly, you would have to define "North and South". And once that has been established you would have to convince Poland (assume it was categorized as South), for example, to share currencies with the weaker "Southern" European nations and Greece instead of the "neuro" which would at least have Germany and to a degree France to prop up its value (and bail out currency members should the need arise). It would also destroy the basic concept of the Euro.

The Euro provided a solution for European governments to trade with each other at a much higher yield of profit since all governments shared the same currency and hence value and wouldn't have to risk trading at a currency loss, whereas by dividing major European nations into two would essentially render the point of having a unitary currency pointless.

As a reverse scenario you would have to persuade Germany and France to take on a single currency with Ireland, Spain and Portugal who have serious economic deadlock which would not serve to ease their currency problems whatsoever.
 
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Speculators would like to see the eurozone breaking into pieces, but this won't happen.

The inflation rate in the eurozone is low, public debt is lower than in the US and UK, everything is fine! :)
 
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Pete, not long ago you dismissed the idea of the Euro breaking down as completely "admissible".

Actually that was the EU but it also goes for the Euro, but as in everything in life, there is always a but. As it stands now, the idea that the Euro will break up is only a wet dream of anti-Europeans and Euro-sceptics. The amount of time and money involved in "dumping the Euro" is a huge barrier so it has to get really really really bad before it is economically viable. Even the Merkel has stated that a break up of the Euro is never going to happen.

You had utmost faith in the structure of this institution but the fact is, the Euro and the EU have let you down and failed in regards to properly investigating the budgets of member governments and properly pressurizing the banks and appropriate countries against wasteful spending during the run up to this crises when alarms began to sound.

I still do. The ECB has nothing to do with regulating the banking sector.. that is the job of each country according to international agreements (the Basel agreements). As for investigating member governments budgets.. well only one has been found out and that was Greece. They lied with the help of US financial institutions (who were playing both sides of the fence). Ireland did not lie, Portugal has not lied nor has Spain or any other country as far as we know. Yes it is as far as we know because like it or not the EU is not a country so the statistical information comes form the individual countries statistical offices.

The prospect of breakdown is no longer an "impossibility".

It never was.. but it is highly unrealistic to near impossible. Nothing in life is impossible.

I mean, is the EU's sole purpose to provide a front for market integration?

Yes pretty much. Its purpose has always been to first secure that Europe can feed it self, and dont go to war with each other. One of the methods is to create a single market and that requires integration across the board to make it work.

Or is it their to also ensure sustainable and foreseeable prosperity?

No not directly. The EU has no power what so ever over countries budgets or what countries spend their money on. The Eurozone is another matter but here the only power the EBC has is monetary policy and nothing else. They are there to combat inflation. The ECB does not meddle in the countries budgets or what they spend it on. It aint perfect but that is how it is.

In which case, it failed to properly foresee what was happening in banks and spending all over Europe and prompting action as a result.

No it did not. It was not the ECB or Eurozone as a group that forced Greece to lie, or Ireland to let its banks go nuts or force Spain to concentrate almost 1/3 of its GDP on one sector.. That is and always has been the area of the countries themselves.

The EU should have taken more responsibility in monitoring the budgets of member nations and taking appropriate actions.

Now wait a bloody minute. The EU does not have any power to do anything about the budgets of member nations. It never had. There is an agreement among the member states that a max of 3% deficit is allowed, and for the most part almost all countries kept with in that limit. Then the American crisis happened and the ****ter hit the fan and the deficit sky-rocketed because of the bail out of banks, higher unemployment, stimulus and so on and so on. One thing no country should ever do is, is to start cutting spending during the start of a recession as it will only make it far far worse.. we saw that in the 1930s. The EU and Eurozone did monitor the situation and did point out the problems according to the agreements, but everyone knew that it was temporary. Then the **** hit the fan over Greece, who had lied and hid its debt from the EU and other member states with the help (and I can not stress this enough) of the very financial institutions from America who caused the crisis in the first place. Both Ireland and Spain had budget surpluses before the crisis for example.

The EMU's negligence extended so far as to not even investigate the monetary statistics of member nations but rather "take their word for it", and thus the problems of Greece where born.

No, they do and did investigate. But they can only work with the numbers provided and are not clairvoyant. How should they have known that Greece used Goldman Sachs to hide debt?

Truth is the Euro does not convict governments to fiscal responsibility by controlling central interest, it has in fact given governments a solution to their high interest borrowing problems.

That is another matter... but you tell that to the Greeks who are in defacto administration now.

Ireland even going so far as to join the Euro to sustain and exasperate there dangerous trend of borrowing.

No, you got that wrong. Ireland joined the Euro because it was beneficial for it. It joined so that companies would have a foot inside the door, and take advantage of low company tax and the full access to the other Eurozone countries. It joined because it for companies makes very good economical sense to have a Euro.... it saves money. Now the drawback for Ireland now, was that at the time the interest rates of the Eurozone went lower and lower thanks to the German unification issue and the US. This fuelled the Celtic Tiger with debt fuelled expansion and without any regulations on its banks, the banks did an Iceland. As long as house prices went up, then all was golden.. problem is when they start going down.

The PIGS have all become victim to anglo-saxon-style economics of borrowing to sustain boom.

Err no. Ireland yes.. Greece yes... the rest.. hell no. Spain still has some of the lowest debt vs GDP in Europe and personal debt in Spain is very low when compared to say the UK and northern Europe. Italy has a high debt vs GDP, but it is almost exclusively internal debt. Now Portugal has structural problems and has had very little growth so that kinda explains that.

The EMU failed to properly investigate the Greek governments budget and greased the wheels of economic uncertainty, and the EU was well aware of the boom of the Portugese/Spanish/Irish economies.

You are mixing things up and putting things in "European" hands that countries are in full control off.

First off there was no boom in Portugal.

Secondly, the Spain boom was built by primarily Brits, Germans, French and Scandinavians loaning money at home, or via "home" banks in Spain to buy second homes. Most Spanish could not afford buying homes during the last decade.

Thirdly, Ireland was a 3rd world country when it joined the EU. It used this as a positive and with help from massive EU funding it took itself out of the dark ages. Then it joined the Euro and now the lack of banking regulation meant that the banks drove a massive building boom on debt. The Irish debt vs GDP without the bank bailout is lower than the UKs I believe (or around there).

And finally.. The EMU as you call it.. is not the right term.. it is the ECB. Greece lied and hid its problems from everyone but the American banking institutions who hid the debt from everyone. You cant investigate such things for peak sake.. if a company or person really wants to hide dirt then it takes a huge amount of work to find that dirt and that is provided that you know something is horribly wrong. We did not know that about Greece.

In secondary school, students are taught a very basic yet fundamental concept of economics; first boom then bust. How did this simple concept evade EU administration? Was this not, as proclaimed by some, a world class market union?

It did not evade the EU administration.. since it was never the job of the EU administration to look at it.. it is still the job of the individual countries in both the Eurozone and the EU as a whole to deal with their own economies and regulate them within the agreed terms. One of the areas where there is not much agreement thanks to the UK, is the banking and financial sectors. So each country has its own rules.. some very restrictive (Spain) and some very lassie-faire (Ireland).

If no light continues to shine at the end of the tunnel, and no turn of fortunes expected in the PIGS, then Germany may well assess its risks and decide the bail out bills and the sliding German stocks due to European fears cost more than the withdrawal of Euro membership.

There would not be a big a problem as it is if it was not for the speculators. When you can earn more on a negative than fixing the problem, then you have a rotten system. Spain and Portugal will only go down if the speculators press them out over the cliff.. goes for any country or company.

It, as you said, cannot be done overnight. But maybe Germans will decide to take steps to reintroduce a domestic currency over the years whose strength is determined by none other than Germany itself, which will no longer make it vulnerable to the boom and busts of other nations. A German currency will inevitably reflect on its purchasing power and high economic output which would likely provide a much more viable and sustainable solution for the German economy.

Doubtful.. the economic costs are huge. The Germans benefit hugely from the Euro. And it would take at least 3 years probably much longer (if you add in the political stuff).
 
Actually that was the EU but it also goes for the Euro, but as in everything in life, there is always a but. As it stands now, the idea that the Euro will break up is only a wet dream of anti-Europeans and Euro-sceptics. The amount of time and money involved in "dumping the Euro" is a huge barrier so it has to get really really really bad before it is economically viable. Even the Merkel has stated that a break up of the Euro is never going to happen.

The economy is beyond Merkels control and she can never guarantee that. She said what people wanted to hear. True that many Eurosceptics would like to see the Euro collapse but you are repeatedly saying it as though that is the only crowd who would like to see the demise of the Euro.

As i stated already, if the Euro continues on its free fall, if the bail outs can only provide a short term solution for the PIGS and the currency ends up inhibiting Germany's performance as an economy, then it is not unrealistic to suggest that country-loving Germans, Eurosceptic or not, would like to see the government enact a plan-b to slowly implement plans to finally turn to a domestic currency. Surely your not suggesting this is an unrealistic and impossible notion?

Perhaps it wont even take a Euro tragedy. The EU is clearly unable to exert any form of pressure over the finances of each government properly and thus it would be realistic to expect Germans to have a currency whose value is dependent on their own performance.

I still do. The ECB has nothing to do with regulating the banking sector.. that is the job of each country according to international agreements (the Basel agreements).

I find it bewildering that the EU should subject its nations to strict market integration rules, economic scrutiny and even establish a foreign policy chief yet completely fail short of warning European governments about their financial excesses and wasteful spending and then make out it is not their area of economic "jurisdiction". Surely a government borrowing way more money than it can pay back in the foreseeable future puts the entire union at risk? Thus i find it odd the EU would not take steps to warm governments of the issue. They need not have any authority over regulating banks to ensure steps where taken by member nations to act more responsibility and be more accountable. Merely raising the issue and pressing it could have made a difference, yet no such mention of any problems occurred.

As for investigating member governments budgets.. well only one has been found out and that was Greece. They lied with the help of US financial institutions (who were playing both sides of the fence). Ireland did not lie, Portugal has not lied nor has Spain or any other country as far as we know. Yes it is as far as we know because like it or not the EU is not a country so the statistical information comes form the individual countries statistical offices.

Yet it took a financial meltdown before European officials decided they should investigate Greek expenses. I dont care if Ireland/Portugal did or didn't lie. Imagine they had. You would have been none the wiser. "Trust but verify".


It never was.. but it is highly unrealistic to near impossible. Nothing in life is impossible.

I was speaking metaphorically and i disagree.

Yes pretty much. Its purpose has always been to first secure that Europe can feed it self, and dont go to war with each other. One of the methods is to create a single market and that requires integration across the board to make it work.

Its job is also to ensure this can sustain itself. This is why all sorts of anti-competitive laws are in place as well as rules on GDP/debt. In this instance it fell short. And as we know from the lisbon treaty, this cover that the EU is merely an economic union is a lie, it has not been so since the early days of its existence as the European Community.

No not directly. The EU has no power what so ever over countries budgets or what countries spend their money on.

Refer above.

The Eurozone is another matter but here the only power the EBC has is monetary policy and nothing else. They are there to combat inflation. The ECB does not meddle in the countries budgets or what they spend it on. It aint perfect but that is how it is.

I was talking about the EU.

No it did not. It was not the ECB or Eurozone as a group that forced Greece to lie, or Ireland to let its banks go nuts or force Spain to concentrate almost 1/3 of its GDP on one sector.. That is and always has been the area of the countries themselves
.

Yet the EU had done nothing to persuade the governments of said countries to enact some change. The EU applied no pressure whatsoever. The EU had not bought up the issue, not once. The EMU didn't even bother checking Greece statistics for themselves and instead decided to naively trust their word and now they pay for the consequences. The EU has the ability to bring up its concerns with said nation, its their job. They have the ability to indirectly influence decisions but they decided to sit and wait instead.

Now wait a bloody minute. The EU does not have any power to do anything about the budgets of member nations. It never had. There is an agreement among the member states that a max of 3% deficit is allowed, and for the most part almost all countries kept with in that limit. Then the American crisis happened and the ****ter hit the fan and the deficit sky-rocketed because of the bail out of banks, higher unemployment, stimulus and so on and so on.

The EU as you said is there to ensure and sustain economic prosperity. It failed to highlight concerns of boom and bust in the PIGS country during the run up to the crises. It may not have direct control over member nation budgets - and it shouldn't - but this is no an excuse.

No, they do and did investigate. But they can only work with the numbers provided and are not clairvoyant. How should they have known that Greece used Goldman Sachs to hide debt?

Greece's vast deficits caused it to fail the criteria for joining the single European currency in 1999, but it succeeded in 2001. Did the EMU not find it odd in the slightest that Greece managed to trim its debt to acceptable standards in such a short amount of time without enacting any known cuts to government expenditure?

On a side note, maybe you can explain this to me since i do not fully understand it, but Greece and Goldman sachs managed to hide debt through a process known as a "swap deal" which is permitted under EU law.

No, you got that wrong. Ireland joined the Euro because it was beneficial for it. It joined so that companies would have a foot inside the door, and take advantage of low company tax and the full access to the other Eurozone countries. It joined because it for companies makes very good economical sense to have a Euro.... it saves money. Now the drawback for Ireland now, was that at the time the interest rates of the Eurozone went lower and lower thanks to the German unification issue and the US. This fuelled the Celtic Tiger with debt fuelled expansion and without any regulations on its banks, the banks did an Iceland. As long as house prices went up, then all was golden.. problem is when they start going down.

There where numerous reasons why nations would join the Euro, but becoming more "responsible" was not on the top of this list. The Irish found the idea of cheaper loans appetizing; the perfect adrenaline for their booming economy. Clearly they took advantage of this fact to the fullest.

Err no. Ireland yes.. Greece yes... the rest.. hell no. Spain still has some of the lowest debt vs GDP in Europe and personal debt in Spain is very low when compared to say the UK and northern Europe. Italy has a high debt vs GDP, but it is almost exclusively internal debt. Now Portugal has structural problems and has had very little growth so that kinda explains that.

Okay i dont get how you can say no to Spain and Portugal. Spain and Portugal had a rapidly expanding tourism and construction sector. They maintained top places in Europe for holidaying and people went their to buy buy villa's. Much of the demand came from Britons immigrating and houses where being built everywhere. This was funded by loans from banks. Italy has always had debt.

You are mixing things up and putting things in "European" hands that countries are in full control off.

First off there was no boom in Portugal.

I stand corrected.

Secondly, the Spain boom was built by primarily Brits, Germans, French and Scandinavians loaning money at home, or via "home" banks in Spain to buy second homes. Most Spanish could not afford buying homes during the last decade.

Yes and??

Thirdly, Ireland was a 3rd world country when it joined the EU. It used this as a positive and with help from massive EU funding it took itself out of the dark ages. Then it joined the Euro and now the lack of banking regulation meant that the banks drove a massive building boom on debt. The Irish debt vs GDP without the bank bailout is lower than the UKs I believe (or around there).

I have said this already what are you getting at?

And finally.. The EMU as you call it.. is not the right term.. it is the ECB. Greece lied and hid its problems from everyone but the American banking institutions who hid the debt from everyone.

I refer to it as the Economic Monetary Union since thats technically what it is but i know the term is not correct and is outdated. :2razz:

You cant investigate such things for peak sake.. if a company or person really wants to hide dirt then it takes a huge amount of work to find that dirt and that is provided that you know something is horribly wrong. We did not know that about Greece.

Refer above somewhere.

It did not evade the EU administration.. since it was never the job of the EU administration to look at it.. it is still the job of the individual countries in both the Eurozone and the EU as a whole to deal with their own economies and regulate them within the agreed terms. One of the areas where there is not much agreement thanks to the UK, is the banking and financial sectors. So each country has its own rules.. some very restrictive (Spain) and some very lassie-faire (Ireland).

Look above when i refer to the EU placing pressure on governments and bringing up issues with them they find troubling (as is their duty, surely, since it is part of the point of the union) rather than exercising direct political authority.

There would not be a big a problem as it is if it was not for the speculators. When you can earn more on a negative than fixing the problem, then you have a rotten system. Spain and Portugal will only go down if the speculators press them out over the cliff.. goes for any country or company.

Then maybe the EU should set up its own independent financial commission?
 
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California Deficit May Reach $28 Billion, Brown Says

California’s budget gap may widen to $28.1 billion over 18 months, according to Governor-elect Jerry Brown, who takes charge of the most-populous U.S. state next month. A cash shortage may force the use of IOUs by July, Controller John Chiang said.

California Deficit May Reach $28 Billion, Brown Says - Bloomberg

Huge deficits are not only a problem of Greece, it's a acommon problem among the most western nations!
 
The economy is beyond Merkels control and she can never guarantee that. She said what people wanted to hear. True that many Eurosceptics would like to see the Euro collapse but you are repeatedly saying it as though that is the only crowd who would like to see the demise of the Euro.

Eh? Merkel and her government are in almost full control of the German economy.. Just as the Cameron is in control of the British and so on.

As i stated already, if the Euro continues on its free fall, if the bail outs can only provide a short term solution for the PIGS and the currency ends up inhibiting Germany's performance as an economy, then it is not unrealistic to suggest that country-loving Germans, Eurosceptic or not, would like to see the government enact a plan-b to slowly implement plans to finally turn to a domestic currency. Surely your not suggesting this is an unrealistic and impossible notion?

Well the Euro is rising yet again... and noting is impossible as I said.. just unrealistic. All parties in Germany back the idea of the Euro.

Perhaps it wont even take a Euro tragedy. The EU is clearly unable to exert any form of pressure over the finances of each government properly and thus it would be realistic to expect Germans to have a currency whose value is dependent on their own performance.

No no no, you dont understand. The EU is not allowed to exert any form of pressure over the finances of each government. It has never been its job. It seems you are giving the EU far far far more power than it actually has..

I find it bewildering that the EU should subject its nations to strict market integration rules,

Again, you are seriously twisting how the EU works. The EU does not subject anyone to anything since all nations governments are involved in the market integration rules.

economic scrutiny

Only the Eurozone and only in a limited fashion.

and even establish a foreign policy chief

That position has been there for over a decade if not longer.

yet completely fail short of warning European governments about their financial excesses

Not their job... and frankly they do warn them by being critical of countries that are over the 3% deficit limit.

and wasteful spending

Irrelevant to this discussion.

and then make out it is not their area of economic "jurisdiction".

In many cases it is not.

Surely a government borrowing way more money than it can pay back in the foreseeable future puts the entire union at risk?

Yes and no.. and again it is not the job of the EU to deal with such things. Italy and Belgium have had very high debt vs GDP for decades.

Thus i find it odd the EU would not take steps to warm governments of the issue.

And what would that change? Dont you think the governments are aware of it before the EU?

They need not have any authority over regulating banks to ensure steps where taken by member nations to act more responsibility and be more accountable.

If the EU had gone in and done what you are saying then you and the Eurosceptics would be up in arms over the wide reaching EU bla bla. Like it or not the EU has nothing to do with bank regulation.

Merely raising the issue and pressing it could have made a difference, yet no such mention of any problems occurred.

They did and do all the time. Does not mean the countries listen. The EU voices its opinion on many things and the Eurosceptics slam them on it for trying to force more regulation on Europe.. and in many cases it is just opinion.. go figure.

Yet it took a financial meltdown before European officials decided they should investigate Greek expenses.

LOL no, get your facts straight. It took a new government in Greece (a socialist one) to out the previous government (a right wing on) for lieing about the state of the finances. They admitted they had lied to the markets and the EU statistic office. That brought in the EU investigators. The Greek situation had in principle nothing to do with the crisis.

I dont care if Ireland/Portugal did or didn't lie. Imagine they had. You would have been none the wiser. "Trust but verify".

Yes.. that goes for anything in life. Like it or not you do NOT have full information and any illegal activity is only found out when either someone admits it or they are caught doing it.

Its job is also to ensure this can sustain itself. This is why all sorts of anti-competitive laws are in place as well as rules on GDP/debt. In this instance it fell short. And as we know from the lisbon treaty, this cover that the EU is merely an economic union is a lie, it has not been so since the early days of its existence as the European Community.

Disagree and your comments are factually incorrect.

I was talking about the EU.

And as I stated, the EU does not have that power on the individual countries.

Yet the EU had done nothing to persuade the governments of said countries to enact some change.

Because it is not their job.

The EU applied no pressure whatsoever.

Actually it does regularly under normal economic situations.. Germany and France have both been criticized for too high deficits during the last decade. But as usual, economic matters of member nations is the sole responsibility of said nations, not the EU.

The EU had not bought up the issue, not once.

And you read every EU communique that comes out? And again, it aint their job to bring up the issue since the economy of a country is the prerogative of said country.

The EMU didn't even bother checking Greece statistics for themselves and instead decided to naively trust their word and now they pay for the consequences.

Again.. it is the ECB or Eurostat.... EMU is something entirely different and only a piece of paper. And they did check the Greek statistics, just as they check all the other statistics. Problem was that the Greeks were cooking the books and were very good at it.

The EU has the ability to bring up its concerns with said nation, its their job.

NO, it is NOT their job.. for god sake..Read the treaty, where does it say that the EU has the job of playing nanny to the member nations over economic matters?

They have the ability to indirectly influence decisions but they decided to sit and wait instead.

Yes that is another matter.. indirectly they can and have voiced concern many times over economic policies in some countries, but that is about it. It is not their freaking job to babysit individual countries governments on economic policy. It NEVER has been.

The EU as you said is there to ensure and sustain economic prosperity. It failed to highlight concerns of boom and bust in the PIGS country during the run up to the crises. It may not have direct control over member nation budgets - and it shouldn't - but this is no an excuse.

Again.. you are cherry picking things big time and do not have a understanding of the EU and what it can and can not do. The "ensure and sustain economic prosperity" is only within the framework of what the EU treaty allows. This does not include babysitting individual countries on their economic policies.

As for failing to highlight the concerns of the boom and bust of the PIGS. Each country has different problems and some not even related to the "boom and bust" years. Portugal for example have structural problems (which the EU has brought up for decades), and did not have a boom or bust period when the others had. Greece did not have the same type of boom as the Irish, but had a corrupt government and massive structural problems. Spain had a freaking surplus and the lowest debt vs GDP (and still has a very low one) up to the crisis and anyone with a pair of eyes could see that the building boom and rising house prices would not last. Same goes for Ireland. So not sure what on earth the EU could have done since IT IS NOT THEIR JOB to babysit member nations economic policy.

Greece's vast deficits caused it to fail the criteria for joining the single European currency in 1999, but it succeeded in 2001. Did the EMU not find it odd in the slightest that Greece managed to trim its debt to acceptable standards in such a short amount of time without enacting any known cuts to government expenditure?

Again.. not EMU. And maybe, I dont know. But again, if the Greeks cooked the books with the help of the American financial institutions, then well how on earth do you expect people to find out that they are cooked?

On a side note, maybe you can explain this to me since i do not fully understand it, but Greece and Goldman sachs managed to hide debt through a process known as a "swap deal" which is permitted under EU law.

Not permitted for countries per say.. especially the way they did it.

There where numerous reasons why nations would join the Euro, but becoming more "responsible" was not on the top of this list. The Irish found the idea of cheaper loans appetizing; the perfect adrenaline for their booming economy. Clearly they took advantage of this fact to the fullest.

That was not the primary reason for the Irish to join. Loans were not "cheap" when they joined.... that came later. There were many more, more important reason for them wanting to join.

Okay i dont get how you can say no to Spain and Portugal. Spain and Portugal had a rapidly expanding tourism and construction sector. They maintained top places in Europe for holidaying and people went their to buy buy villa's. Much of the demand came from Britons immigrating and houses where being built everywhere. This was funded by loans from banks. Italy has always had debt.

Spain and Portugal has had huge tourism industries long before they joined the EEC/EU and the Eurozone. The building boom was in Spain, not in Portugal (relatively speaking). Brits bought houses with loans from British banks more than from Spanish banks.

Yes and??

The housing debt is in France, Britain and so on.. not in Spain.

I refer to it as the Economic Monetary Union since thats technically what it is but i know the term is not correct and is outdated. :2razz:

It is miss-leading.

Look above when i refer to the EU placing pressure on governments and bringing up issues with them they find troubling (as is their duty, surely, since it is part of the point of the union) rather than exercising direct political authority.

And again.. no you have it wrong.

Then maybe the EU should set up its own independent financial commission?

It has been floated. But as usual the Brits were against it.


and cant believe I kept this within the max number of characters!
 
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