Most of The World Could Be 100% Powered With Renewables by 2050

[Jack Hays]

Is this another of your spoof stories?

It's June. Demand is low, and the long days provide more solar power. We don't expect or need much wind power at this time of year. Indeed, solar and wind power complement one another well in the UK, with wind dominating in the winter and solar in the summer.

". . . The wind drought has pushed up day-ahead power prices to the highest level for the time of year for at least a decade. Apart from a surge expected around June 14, wind levels are forecast to stay low for the next fortnight, according to The Weather Company. . . .

Luckily the current British wind drought occurred in Summer, but wind droughts can occur any time of year.
If countries like Britain go 100% renewable, its only a matter of time until a prolonged winter wind drought coincides with near zero solar energy availability, leading to weeks or even months without power at the coldest time of the year. Low wind conditions in Britain sometimes coincide with winter high pressure systems, which can be extremely cold.
No conceivable battery backup would bail a country out of a disaster like that. "

 

[Jack Hays]

Solar overload — “Costs a fortune” as the super Duck Curve flood of electricity hits Australia


Ladies and Gentlemen, Australia is now romping in as Star-Crash-Test-Dummy in the renewables stake.

Proportionally, we have more uncontrolled solar roof top generators than any other nation. We’re in uncharted territory: about 20% of houses in Hawaii and California have Solar PV, but in Western Australia, it’s 25%. In Queensland it’s 30% and throughout Australia we are adding 100MW a month and it’s like a whole new coal fired station every year (except it doesn’t work most of the time).
Strap yourself in! This is more useless infrastructure than anywhere else on planet Earth. The only time solar PV panels provide something we might need is at afternoon tea time in summer when airconditioners are on. So for three quarters of the year they provide electricity when we don’t need it, and for three quarters of every day they don’t even work. The rest of the time they burn capital, increase the blackout and fire risk and sit there collecting dust and hail stones.
Electricity at the wrong time is not just wasted, it’s a burden

Too much electricity bumps up the grid frequency and voltage, potentially damaging equipment and risking blackouts. Obviously we have to “manage” this flood of green electrons. Your money or your lights.
If you like your computer, you can keep your computer. But hand over your job, the economy and your quality of life.
Welcome to the Duck Curve

Each year as more solar power arrives when we don’t need it in the middle of the day, the belly of the load curve swings lower and lower. Then as the sun fades and the peak need of the day arrives after dark the demand ramps up, and so must the supply. This peak is the ducks head. The neck of the duck is when generators must ramp up steeply to take over from the failing sun. It’s often when prices spike.

The Californian Duck Curve keeps getting fatter as more solar power arrives at noon. (Courtesy of CAISO)
​

The tail of the duck is the secondary peak at breakfast. The belly of the duck is noon, when otherwise profitable cheap baseload electricity infrastructure sits around and burns cash. The middle of the day is “theoretically cheap” but the rest of the day gets more expensive.
If we add more storage, we just toss more money in the pit in an attempt to flatten a curve that we created in the quest for greener electrons.
The solution, just stop, stop already!

The commentariat below are saying that at best we switch our hot water systems to “soak” up electricity we didn’t need, or buy electric cars we don’t want. Or we need fancy-pants switches to disconnect the panels, or we need to pay millions for batteries or billions for pumped hydro. Pay now, pay later, pay, pray and pay!
I say, just stop. Stop installing infrastructure we don’t need, stop subsidizing it, stop pretending we need green electrons. Stop pretending we need “storage” to solve a problem we never had. Stop buying electricity at inflated prices from generators which don’t make it when we need it. People wanting to make money selling solar power can pay for the batteries themselves.
Start spreading the costs of this pointless experiment as fairly as we can instead of dumping it on electricity consumers who don’t have solar and on taxpayers who voted against a carbon tax.
Call it a “solar spill” — doesn’t sound so bad . . . .

 

[Jack Hays]

[h=1]Carbon Fuels Conquered Famine – But Green Policies Are Inviting It Again[/h]The Long War on Famine by Viv Forbes Famine has haunted humans for most of their history. In the days of the Pharaohs, whenever the Nile River failed to flood, Egypt starved. Joseph was called in and he organised stockpiling of grain for famine relief. Even mighty Rome suffered famines – in 436 BC thousands…
Continue reading →

 

[Surface Detail]

". . . The wind drought has pushed up day-ahead power prices to the highest level for the time of year for at least a decade. Apart from a surge expected around June 14, wind levels are forecast to stay low for the next fortnight, according to The Weather Company. . . .

Luckily the current British wind drought occurred in Summer, but wind droughts can occur any time of year.
If countries like Britain go 100% renewable, its only a matter of time until a prolonged winter wind drought coincides with near zero solar energy availability, leading to weeks or even months without power at the coldest time of the year. Low wind conditions in Britain sometimes coincide with winter high pressure systems, which can be extremely cold.
No conceivable battery backup would bail a country out of a disaster like that. "

More weasel words from our resident spoofer. Electricity prices at this time of year are low anyway, because demand is low. The "wind drought" (which nobody has noticed here) has just made low prices slightly higher. At other times, strong wind production makes high prices lower. Does this cause any practical difficulties? No.

 

[Jack Hays]

More weasel words from our resident spoofer. Electricity prices at this time of year are low anyway, because demand is low. The "wind drought" (which nobody has noticed here) has just made low prices slightly higher. At other times, strong wind production makes high prices lower. Does this cause any practical difficulties? No.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-heads-into-9th-day-with-no-relief-for-weeks

". . . Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low. On a dull, dark day in winter when heating demand peaks, a calm day might leave the U.K. grid vulnerable.


“People would’ve started worrying about brownouts,” Elchin Mammadov, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said. “This shows that relying on wind, solar and batteries to supply the majority of our power is reckless for energy security.”. . . . "

 

[Surface Detail]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-heads-into-9th-day-with-no-relief-for-weeks

". . . Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low. On a dull, dark day in winter when heating demand peaks, a calm day might leave the U.K. grid vulnerable.


“People would’ve started worrying about brownouts,” Elchin Mammadov, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said. “This shows that relying on wind, solar and batteries to supply the majority of our power is reckless for energy security.”. . . . "

Thus confirming that your post #947 is alarmist claptrap :roll:

 

[Jack Hays]

Thus confirming that your post #947 is alarmist claptrap :roll:

Bloomberg took it seriously. No one thinks they are alarmists or purveyors of claptrap. Your hypersensitivity is common among defenders of a receding paradigm.

 

[Surface Detail]

Bloomberg took it seriously. No one thinks they are alarmists or purveyors of claptrap. Your hypersensitivity is common among defenders of a receding paradigm.

Oh, for heaven's sake, learn to read, Jack. I said it confirms that your post #947 (citing WUWT) is alarmist claptrap.

 

[Jack Hays]

Oh, for heaven's sake, learn to read, Jack. I said it confirms that your post #947 (citing WUWT) is alarmist claptrap.

The WUWT post is based on, cites and links to the Bloomberg report. I'm afraid you're the one who failed reading comprehension in this case.

 

[Surface Detail]

The WUWT post is based on, cites and links to the Bloomberg report. I'm afraid you're the one who failed reading comprehension in this case.

"Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

said your post #947, citing WUWT. I don't see that in the Bloomberg report. As I said: alarmist claptrap.

 

[Jack Hays]

"Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

said your post #947, citing WUWT. I don't see that in the Bloomberg report. As I said: alarmist claptrap.

Here's the Bloomberg quote. It may actually be more pointed than the WUWT formulation. Which do you prefer:

1. "utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production" (WUWT)
or
2. "reckless for energy security" (Bloomberg) ?

Your call.

“This shows that relying on wind, solar and batteries to supply the majority of our power is reckless for energy security.”

 

[Surface Detail]

Here's the Bloomberg quote. It may actually be more pointed than the WUWT formulation. Which do you prefer:

1. "utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production" (WUWT)
or
2. "reckless for energy security" (Bloomberg) ?

Your call.

“This shows that relying on wind, solar and batteries to supply the majority of our power is reckless for energy security.”

Bloomberg: "Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low."

WUWT: "Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

Both of these statements cannot both be true. If low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June, how can Britons be experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production? Answer: They not. Nobody has noticed any problems with the supply of electricity. WUWT is lying as usual. It's a spoof science website.

 

[Tim the plumber]

Given the above row over wind power i will just put in that the construction of my new wind power turbine is coming along nicely so far.

Next challenge on the horizon; How to balance a 2.5m diameter centrifugal turbine..... It has a Ford Focus wheel hub as it's center.......ummm......

 

[Jack Hays]

Bloomberg: "Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low."

WUWT: "Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

Both of these statements cannot both be true. If low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June, how can Britons be experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production? Answer: They not. Nobody has noticed any problems with the supply of electricity. WUWT is lying as usual. It's a spoof science website.

Yes, both are true.

Sorry, but the lowest score on the Truth-O-Meter is your own.

WUWT: "Luckily the current British wind drought occurred in Summer, but wind droughts can occur any time of year."

Bloomberg: "Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low. On a dull, dark day in winter when heating demand peaks, a calm day might leave the U.K. grid vulnerable."

 

[Surface Detail]

Bloomberg: "Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low."

WUWT: "Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

Yes, both are true.

Sorry, but the lowest score on the Truth-O-Meter is your own.

WUWT: "[FONT=&]Luckily the current British wind drought occurred in Summer, but wind droughts can occur any time of year."

[/FONT]Bloomberg: "Low wind power isn’t a threat to supplies in June when demand is low. On a dull, dark day in winter when heating demand peaks, a calm day might leave the U.K. grid vulnerable."

I live in the UK, and I can assure you that our electricity supply is working just fine. AFAIK, there are no reports of anyone experiencing any problems at all with their power supply. Stop believing the crap you read on WUWT. It's a spoof website.

And no, there were no problems with my electricity supply last winter either, despite periods of low wind. Why? Because the electricity supply companies planned for it by reserving sufficient alternative generation and/or demand management to cover such periods. The people who run our utilities are really not as stupid as your media and spoof science websites seem to think.

Also, it is a logical impossibility for both statements to be true. If there is no threat to supplies, how could we possibly be experiencing problems first hand? It simply doesn't make sense to claim that both statements are true.

 

[Jack Hays]

I live in the UK, and I can assure you that our electricity supply is working just fine. AFAIK, there are no reports of anyone experiencing any problems at all with their power supply. Stop believing the crap you read on WUWT. It's a spoof website.

And no, there were no problems with my electricity supply last winter either, despite periods of low wind. Why? Because the electricity supply companies planned for it by reserving sufficient alternative generation and/or demand management to cover such periods. The people who run our utilities are really not as stupid as your media and spoof science websites seem to think.

Also, it is a logical impossibility for both statements to be true. If there is no threat to supplies, how could we possibly be experiencing problems first hand? It simply doesn't make sense to claim that both statements are true.

No one has claimed you are having problems now. Stop pretending anyone did.

Yes, it's easy to see how both statements are true. In fact, you have to be willfully obtuse not to see it. The first hand experience is seeing that wind droughts can impact electricity supply. And that might matter in the winter.

 

[Surface Detail]

No one has claimed you are having problems now. Stop pretending anyone did.

Yes, it's easy to see how both statements are true. In fact, you have to be willfully obtuse not to see it. The first hand experience is seeing that wind droughts can impact electricity supply. And that might matter in the winter.

WUWT: "Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

No, we really aren't. Are is present tense. We are not experiencing anything out of the ordinary, first hand or otherwise! Life is normal. There are no power outages, warnings, flicking lights or anything at all unusual about the power supply. WUWT is a spoof science site. Stop being so gullible.

 

[Jack Hays]

WUWT: "Britons are experiencing first hand why wind is utterly unsuitable for reliable electricity production."

No, we really aren't. Are is present tense. We are not experiencing anything out of the ordinary, first hand or otherwise! Life is normal. There are no power outages, warnings, flicking lights or anything at all unusual about the power supply. WUWT is a spoof science site. Stop being so gullible.

Disappointingly dishonest. No one claimed outages or anything else untoward. But Britons are experiencing why wind is unsuitable because it's not hard to imagine another wind drought during a less forgiving season.

 

[ataraxia]

Yes, they will be around until we have some incredible breakthrough in technology.

Sometimes there is revolution in technology, and sometimes there is evolution. It is possible that renewables are evolving such that the need for fossil fuels will just slowly wither away. If you had told me 10 years ago there would be fully electric cars, or solar powered cars, or hydrogen powered cars, etc... available for commercial use, I would not believe you. And yet here we are!

 

[Lord of Planar]

Sometimes there is revolution in technology, and sometimes there is evolution. It is possible that renewables are evolving such that the need for fossil fuels will just slowly wither away. If you had told me 10 years ago there would be fully electric cars, or solar powered cars, or hydrogen powered cars, etc... available for commercial use, I would not believe you. And yet here we are!

I'm sorry. Most people are not surprised at all by electric cars or hydrogen. None of us are who keep up with the sciences.

 

[ataraxia]

I'm sorry. Most people are not surprised at all by electric cars or hydrogen. None of us are who keep up with the sciences.

So why would you be surprised if fossil fuels just gradually wither away and are replaced by renewables?

 

[Tim the plumber]

So why would you be surprised if fossil fuels just gradually wither away and are replaced by renewables?

Because the science says they are the best by a long way.

 

[ataraxia]

Because the science says they are the best by a long way

The surprising popularity and rapid proliferation of electric cars in the marketplace just in the last few years says you may not have a very good handle on what the science, or the market, say.

 

[Tim the plumber]

The surprising popularity and rapid proliferation of electric cars in the marketplace just in the last few years says you may not have a very good handle on what the science, or the market, say.

Would they be there without the subsidy or fashion for them?

Are they cost effective vs petrol for normal use?

 

[Lord of Planar]

So why would you be surprised if fossil fuels just gradually wither away and are replaced by renewables?

I wouldn't be surprised at all. In fact I have said it would happen, and that the transition does not need to be artificially forced.