Michael Mann Accepts the Pause

[Jack Hays]

It's an interesting thought experiment to imagine AGW orthodoxy's confrontation with the Pause as an analog to humans' five stages of grief. Here it's done well, with the added bonus of MM's acceptance of the Pause. Being MM, of course, there's the expected attempt to weasel out of the conclusions from observation, but I'm sure he'll have to concede that in time as well.

Grasping For Pause-ible Deniability On Climate Change

Climate change has a major problem on its hands: the Earth’s average surface temperature has failed to significantly increase in nearly two decades, and all this despite ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Unlike the globe, this controversy has been simmering for the past several years. Skeptics have increasingly pointed to the pause as proof they were right all along while the warming faithful’s reaction to the ever-mounting evidence provides a perfect case study in modern psychology’s Five Stages of Loss and Grief.

• Stage 1: Denial. When observers began to sound the alarm on a lack of rising temperatures as predicted by climatologists’ computer models, the climate-change crowd simply refused to acknowledge the data. “The ‘pause’ in global warming is not even a thing,” declared The Guardian.
• Stage 2: Anger. Take Slate’s Phil Plait, for instance: “As I, and many others, have pointed out time and again, all they [those that point to the pause] have is noise. The problem is, they’re loud, and they have convinced some media they have something to say (c’mon CNN, really?) when really they don’t.”
• Stage 3: Bargaining. A popular rebuttal, and one espoused by the Washington Post, held that using 1998 as the beginning date for a supposed “pause” was cherry-picking data. Because ’98 was an El Nino year, it was hotter than most, and therefore an unfair starting point. Or if not that, then the heat was in the oceans. Or whatever.
• Stage 4: Depression. Despite the good news that global warming had stayed steady or even possibly declined, the media could only focus on the idea that 2014 was supposedly the hottest year ever recorded, despite plenty of subjectivitysurrounding the data.

As anyone that has struggled with grief knows, however, these emotions are necessary. Only after hitting rock bottom can the healing begin, which brings us to Stage 5: Acceptance. . . .

 

[Tim the plumber]

I'm expecting the "I never held those ideas anyway".

 

[countryboy]

Wait.....I thought this was the warmest blah blah blah on record. What the?

 

[Threegoofs]

Wait.....I thought this was the warmest blah blah blah on record. What the?

It is.

The warmest decade on record. Last year was the warmest year on record. Warmest seas on record. Highest sea level on record. Largest glacial retreat on record. All of this is happening now and is especially pronounced when you look at it in the longer term over the last few decades.

You really shouldnt fall for the denier obfuscation about it.

 

[Verax]

More hilarity from the "he finished second to last" (but they don't tell you it was a two man race) deception crew.

This has been explained ad naseum but the deniers seize on the surface temperature increase slowdown, not pause, and swear up and down all is well, nothing bad is happening and the whole thing is just one big misunderstanding. :lol:

Once surface temperatures are significantly increasing again the deniers will be swearing up and down its falsified data and we can't trust anything, its all a conspiracy!

Notice there is not a single mention of all the evidence of global warming still rapidly occurring, ONLY talk of surface temperatures, and a mischaracterization of them to boot. Starting at a very high anomaly and then comparing everything to that, shame. Tisk tisk deniers, very deceptive and not really telling the whole story. Of course that isn't your modus operandi is it? Oh wait it is! That's all you do.

 

[Lord of Planar]

It is.

The warmest decade on record. Last year was the warmest year on record. Warmest seas on record. Highest sea level on record. Largest glacial retreat on record. All of this is happening now and is especially pronounced when you look at it in the longer term over the last few decades.

You really shouldnt fall for the denier obfuscation about it.

You improperly link denial and observed facts.

What you call denial, isn't that these events occur. It is the cause of these events. As long as you argue the incorrect points, you will always be wrong.

 

[maxparrish]

It is.

The warmest decade on record. Last year was the warmest year on record. Warmest seas on record. Highest sea level on record. Largest glacial retreat on record. All of this is happening now and is especially pronounced when you look at it in the longer term over the last few decades.

You really shouldnt fall for the denier obfuscation about it.

Sorry, the entire paradigm on global warming is collapsing. Back in 1998 the spirit dances amongst the warming druids now seems like a very dated superstition. After 18 years, there is a new stunning reality - surface temperatures stopped increasing. The models are failing, crumbling as we write. The desperate excuses amuse but no longer sell because this reality is undeniable:

The climate change tree is falling, even if there are no 'consensus' priests that are willing and able to hear it.

 

[Lord of Planar]

We shouldn't forget heat island effects, temperature station relocations, man made changes around temperature station locations, and "corrections."

We really cannot be confident of the temperature trends from this viewpoint alone!

 

[iguanaman]

It's an interesting thought experiment to imagine AGW orthodoxy's confrontation with the Pause as an analog to humans' five stages of grief. Here it's done well, with the added bonus of MM's acceptance of the Pause. Being MM, of course, there's the expected attempt to weasel out of the conclusions from observation, but I'm sure he'll have to concede that in time as well.

Grasping For Pause-ible Deniability On Climate Change

Climate change has a major problem on its hands: the Earth’s average surface temperature has failed to significantly increase in nearly two decades, and all this despite ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Unlike the globe, this controversy has been simmering for the past several years. Skeptics have increasingly pointed to the pause as proof they were right all along while the warming faithful’s reaction to the ever-mounting evidence provides a perfect case study in modern psychology’s Five Stages of Loss and Grief.

• Stage 1: Denial. When observers began to sound the alarm on a lack of rising temperatures as predicted by climatologists’ computer models, the climate-change crowd simply refused to acknowledge the data. “The ‘pause’ in global warming is not even a thing,” declared The Guardian.
• Stage 2: Anger. Take Slate’s Phil Plait, for instance: “As I, and many others, have pointed out time and again, all they [those that point to the pause] have is noise. The problem is, they’re loud, and they have convinced some media they have something to say (c’mon CNN, really?) when really they don’t.”
• Stage 3: Bargaining. A popular rebuttal, and one espoused by the Washington Post, held that using 1998 as the beginning date for a supposed “pause” was cherry-picking data. Because ’98 was an El Nino year, it was hotter than most, and therefore an unfair starting point. Or if not that, then the heat was in the oceans. Or whatever.
• Stage 4: Depression. Despite the good news that global warming had stayed steady or even possibly declined, the media could only focus on the idea that 2014 was supposedly the hottest year ever recorded, despite plenty of subjectivitysurrounding the data.

As anyone that has struggled with grief knows, however, these emotions are necessary. Only after hitting rock bottom can the healing begin, which brings us to Stage 5: Acceptance. . . .

Here is what he said...
But Mann’s admission comes with a qualifier. Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have created what he conveniently labels a “false pause,” and when it has run its course global warming will accelerate even faster than it ever did before.

And it is interesting that with all those "oscillations" we continue to set temperature records every year, the permafrost and glaciers keep melting at alarming rates and the oceans continue to warm. Some "pause".

 

[iguanaman]

It's an interesting thought experiment to imagine AGW orthodoxy's confrontation with the Pause as an analog to humans' five stages of grief. Here it's done well, with the added bonus of MM's acceptance of the Pause. Being MM, of course, there's the expected attempt to weasel out of the conclusions from observation, but I'm sure he'll have to concede that in time as well.

Grasping For Pause-ible Deniability On Climate Change

Climate change has a major problem on its hands: the Earth’s average surface temperature has failed to significantly increase in nearly two decades, and all this despite ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Unlike the globe, this controversy has been simmering for the past several years. Skeptics have increasingly pointed to the pause as proof they were right all along while the warming faithful’s reaction to the ever-mounting evidence provides a perfect case study in modern psychology’s Five Stages of Loss and Grief.

• Stage 1: Denial. When observers began to sound the alarm on a lack of rising temperatures as predicted by climatologists’ computer models, the climate-change crowd simply refused to acknowledge the data. “The ‘pause’ in global warming is not even a thing,” declared The Guardian.
• Stage 2: Anger. Take Slate’s Phil Plait, for instance: “As I, and many others, have pointed out time and again, all they [those that point to the pause] have is noise. The problem is, they’re loud, and they have convinced some media they have something to say (c’mon CNN, really?) when really they don’t.”
• Stage 3: Bargaining. A popular rebuttal, and one espoused by the Washington Post, held that using 1998 as the beginning date for a supposed “pause” was cherry-picking data. Because ’98 was an El Nino year, it was hotter than most, and therefore an unfair starting point. Or if not that, then the heat was in the oceans. Or whatever.
• Stage 4: Depression. Despite the good news that global warming had stayed steady or even possibly declined, the media could only focus on the idea that 2014 was supposedly the hottest year ever recorded, despite plenty of subjectivitysurrounding the data.

As anyone that has struggled with grief knows, however, these emotions are necessary. Only after hitting rock bottom can the healing begin, which brings us to Stage 5: Acceptance. . . .

Here is what he said...
But Mann’s admission comes with a qualifier. Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have created what he conveniently labels a “false pause,” and when it has run its course global warming will accelerate even faster than it ever did before.

And it is interesting that with all those "oscillations" we continue to set temperature records every year, the permafrost and glaciers keep melting at alarming rates and the oceans continue to warm. Some "pause".

 

[Threegoofs]

We shouldn't forget heat island effects, temperature station relocations, man made changes around temperature station locations, and "corrections."

We really cannot be confident of the temperature trends from this viewpoint alone!

Right. Thats why we have actual documented effects happening. Dramatic declines in arctic sea ice, glaciers melting all over the world at fairly alarming rates, sea level rise that is accelerating, decreased snow cover, more extreme events (high record temperatures outpace record cold temperatures), worldwide disruptions in ecosystems, with species ranges moving both northward and to higher elevations, and earlier springs happening worldwide, especially closer to the poles.

There is a vast amount of information other than just temperature records. But I'm sure some people will find a way to deny it all.

 

[Threegoofs]

Sorry, the entire paradigm on global warming is collapsing. Back in 1998 the spirit dances amongst the warming druids now seems like a very dated superstition. After 18 years, there is a new stunning reality - surface temperatures stopped increasing. The models are failing, crumbling as we write. The desperate excuses amuse but no longer sell because this reality is undeniable:

The climate change tree is falling, even if there are no 'consensus' priests that are willing and able to hear it.

Nope. Your post is full of wrong. Maybe if you read around here a while you'll figure out why.

 

[maxparrish]

Nope. Your post is full of wrong. Maybe if you read around here a while you'll figure out why.

You mean, because you can't provide anything other than an unsupported assertion, you have to hang around and hand wave? The graph data is from RSS at: Measurements | Remote Sensing Systems.

Its "full of wrong" because...????

 

[Threegoofs]

You mean, because you can't provide anything other than an unsupported assertion, you have to hang around and hand wave? The graph data is from RSS at: Measurements | Remote Sensing Systems.

Its "full of wrong" because...????

Its been described as completely wrong in just about every third thread in this section.

Read some of it, you'll see. I'm not going to spoon feed a new denier, you can feed yourself.

 

[Jack Hays]

Here is what he said...
But Mann’s admission comes with a qualifier. Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have created what he conveniently labels a “false pause,” and when it has run its course global warming will accelerate even faster than it ever did before.

And it is interesting that with all those "oscillations" we continue to set temperature records every year, the permafrost and glaciers keep melting at alarming rates and the oceans continue to warm. Some "pause".

Still in denial I see.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Still in denial I see.

Maybe not denial, but trying to get research funding before his side is no longer sponsored with research grants.

 

[Jack Hays]

Here is what he said...
But Mann’s admission comes with a qualifier. Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have created what he conveniently labels a “false pause,” and when it has run its course global warming will accelerate even faster than it ever did before.

And it is interesting that with all those "oscillations" we continue to set temperature records every year, the permafrost and glaciers keep melting at alarming rates and the oceans continue to warm. Some "pause".

[h=1]El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again[/h] Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 4 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – so far unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the present rather attenuated cycle – shows a new record length…
Continue reading →

 

[maxparrish]

Its been described as completely wrong in just about every third thread in this section.

Read some of it, you'll see. I'm not going to spoon feed a new denier, you can feed yourself.

Here is some nutrition I found...Hadcrut4 and RSS...does not matter. The models are failing...going down like a B-52 in flames over Hanoi

 

[Jack Hays]

Its been described as completely wrong in just about every third thread in this section.

Read some of it, you'll see. I'm not going to spoon feed a new denier, you can feed yourself.

Getting desperate, resorting to a blatant falsehood.

 

[Threegoofs]

Getting desperate, resorting to a blatant falsehood.

This coming from a guy who thinks Christopher Monckton is a reliable source....

 

[jmotivator]

Here is what he said...
But Mann’s admission comes with a qualifier. Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have created what he conveniently labels a “false pause,” and when it has run its course global warming will accelerate even faster than it ever did before.

And it is interesting that with all those "oscillations" we continue to set temperature records every year, the permafrost and glaciers keep melting at alarming rates and the oceans continue to warm. Some "pause".

So, show me where Mann has definitively found the cause for these "Oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans" and how he knows they will end.

 

[Jack Hays]

This coming from a guy who thinks Christopher Monckton is a reliable source....

The source is RSS. Monckton is the presenter. He is to RSS as Ed Sullivan was to the Beatles.

 

[Threegoofs]

The source is RSS. Monckton is the presenter. He is to RSS as Ed Sullivan was to the Beatles.

Yeah. Sure. He adds no perspective.

I don't even think YOU believe the stuff you write anymore.

 

[polgara]

[h=1]El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again[/h] Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 4 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – so far unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the present rather attenuated cycle – shows a new record length…
Continue reading →

Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

From the link: "...the graph appeared in the final draft of IPCC (2013) but had mysteriously been deleted from the final published version, inferentially because the IPCC did not want to display such a plain comparison between absurdly exaggerated predictions and unexciting reality."

My question is did anyone ask WHY NOT? In polite society, wouldn't that be considered a tad dishonest? I can, of course, conjecture that since there is an awful lot of money to be made by a few already very wealthy individuals if this scam is adopted, and considering this would be the largest transfer of wealth in history from the West to other parts of the globe - by raising our utility bills to pay for it - publishing facts that don't agree with their arguments would be, at the very least, an embarrassment that might raise questions, meaning that it should be avoided if possible.

And finally, is a possible one degree increase in temperature over the next 100 years enough to warrant calling it "Thermogeddon" to frighten people if this isn't adopted, especially since it is still hypothetical guesswork at this point in time? :shock: :thumbdown:

 

[Jack Hays]

Yeah. Sure. He adds no perspective.

I don't even think YOU believe the stuff you write anymore.

The RSS data speaks for itself.