May 14 Elections, Turkey

[joluoto]

that is a state controlled media mate

Meaning it will have the official result wether that result is correct or not.

 

[kaerin]

Meaning it will have the official result wether that result is correct or not.

Nope, check Istanbul Mayoral elections in 2019. They had to concede, and they were saying they were winning with 58%, but eventually lost.

 

[Juks]

Well, the election campaign has given Erdogan an unfair advantage. Media coverage gives President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an unfair advantage over the opposition. In April, Erdogan received 33 hours of television time on state television. Challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu got 32 minutes. Considering that 90 % of the media is state controlled and add to that the extremely strict media legislation and jailing of journalists. It is about journalists who carry out what we in our part of the world would call normal, investigative and critical journalism. According to Reporters Without Borders, 31 journalists are currently detained.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

First figures suggests a smal advantage Erdogan...

From the BBC: "The first results from the Turkish elections are being reported, and they put President Erdogan way ahead.

But they are based on a small percentage of the vote, 9.1%. On that basis, broadcaster HaberTurk showed Erdogan in the lead with 59.47% compared to opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu with 34.79%.

Initial results were expected to be favourable for Erdogan, as many of the first counts have tended, in the past, to come from his conservative heartland."

Things may still change as more numbers come in.

 

[Juks]

With 30.15 percent of the votes counted, Kiliçdaroglu has now reached over the 40 mark, while Erdogan is losing.

Erdogan: 53.62 percent

Kilicdaroglu: 40.42 percent

Sinan Ogan: 5.4 percent

 

[Juks]

Hmmm 93% of the ones entitled to vote are said to have voted. Could that be?

 

[Juin]

.

47.55% counted


RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN

52.03%

MUHARREM INCE
(WITHDRAWN)
0.53%

KEMAL KILICDAROGLU

42.11%

SINAN OGAN

5.33%

 

[PeteEU]

Erdogan will win. That he has this big numbers, despite a very bad economy and bad response to the earthquake.. means it is pretty much rigged.

 

[PeteEU]

Hmmm 93% of the ones entitled to vote are said to have voted. Could that be?

80%+ usually vote in Scandinavian elections.. so sure.

 

[Juks]

Around half of the votes are counted in the earthquake area and surprisingly, Erdogan has strong support there.

I can only guess that the kurds that didn't die al thanks Erdogan for his excellent support.... Or maybe it is the dead kurds thanking him?

 

[Juin]

Around half of the votes are counted in the earthquake area and surprisingly, Erdogan has strong support there.

I can only guess that the kurds that didn't die al thanks Erdogan for his excellent support.... Or maybe it is the dead kurds thanking him?

Who is to tell they are long dead ? Erdogan has their certificates of birth, and can present them. Good luck finding their death certificates to prove they are dead

 

[Juin]

Around half of the votes are counted in the earthquake area and surprisingly, Erdogan has strong support there.

I can only guess that the kurds that didn't die al thanks Erdogan for his excellent support.... Or maybe it is the dead kurds thanking him?

I was confused for a while following the results come in on twitter. Two sets of updates, widely apart. It turns out there are updates by the government media and another by the opposition. In the opposition updates Erdogan and Kk are about tight under 50%, with KK a little ahead. In the government updates the gap is wider, about 8%; with Erdogan hovering just north of 50% and KK abouts 42%

 

[Juks]

I was confused for a while following the results come in on twitter. Two sets of updates, widely apart. It turns out there are updates by the government media and another by the opposition. In the opposition updates Erdogan and Kk are about tight under 50%, with KK a little ahead. In the government updates the gap is wider, about 8%; with Erdogan hovering just north of 50% and KK abouts 42%

I know, I am following the goverment result, because accurate or not, they are the ones that will count.

 

[Juin]

I know, I am following the goverment result, because accurate or not, they are the ones that will count.

If the gap berween Erdogan and KK stands- as reported on government updates- then Erdogan gets reelected; in first or second round. Given that this round is kind of like what a second round would be, as the other runners coalesced around KK, making it a quasi two man race. Even is there is a second round KK has no uncommitted votes from first round to make up the gap.

 

[kaerin]

We are winning this hahaha. Told ya.

 

[Juin]

We are winning this hahaha. Told ya.

KK or Erdogan?

 

[Juks]

If the gap berween Erdogan and KK stands- as reported on government updates- then Erdogan gets reelected; in first or second round. Given that this round is kind of like what a second round would be, as the other runners coalesced around KK, making it a quasi two man race. Even is there is a second round KK has no uncommitted votes from first round to make up the gap.

If a candidate gets more than 50%, there will be no second round. So given Erdogan's past rigging of elections, I'd say the final result will likely be a win for Erdogan, with numbers a couple of percentage points above 50. The only thing that could change it is if the opposition actually gets something like 60% or so. Then the result is both candidates below 50% and a second round is planned. Before this second round, the opposition candidate can be imprisoned.

The problem for Erdogan in this is that that will definitely show that Turkey is no longer a democracy and that will have consequences for him, both domestic and international.

AND: There are more international observers in place this time and the eyes of every western country is on this election so the difficulties to get away with major sheating is slimer than it has been... In so many ways this is the last chance for the Turkish people to save their democracy. The chance will not return for a long time.


So it is very enthralling....
According to CNN Turk, Erdogan is now at 49.76 percent. Kilicdaroglu has 44.49 percent.

 

[kaerin]

Kilicdaroglu 48%
Erdogan 45% acc to Indie media.

 

[Jredbaron96]

All signs so far seem to point to a runoff.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

21:49

Erdogan's vote share dips below 50% - state news agency​

Turkey's state news agency AA says Erdogan's share of vote has fallen below the threshold needed to win the election in the first round - 49.86% with more than 90% of the votes counted.
Kilicdaroglu is in second position with 44.38% of the votes, according to AA. There are still more than 14 million votes left to be counted.

 

[kaerin]

Where are all those people who were shitting on our democracy? Guess we are not that bad ha? He could have wrapped this up with 70% ala Putin...

Turks never ever let their democracy taken away. We have sacrificied too much.

 

[Juks]

Where are all those people who were shitting on our democracy? Guess we are not that bad ha? He could have wrapped this up with 70% ala Putin...

Turks never ever let their democracy taken away. We have sacrificied too much.

Okay, I know our views differs and that you don't like me but…. You pick yourself up and go out there and continue to campaign in front of the second round of elections and save your democracy. This is the last chance you get. If it makes you feel better, A win for Erdogan would actually benefit myself in my own views. I am not a fan of Sweden joining NATO and I believe that considering the weekening of Russia, the chance of Russian aggression towards Sweden is close to zero. Before the war in Ukraine, most Swedes was against a membership.
Erodgans reluctance to let us in, gives those with my view of things the chance to regroup and build up and might actually result in demands for a referendum on the issue to surface. Well, it is a longshot, I admit, but still....

The chances you missed are as Erdogan used the the coup attempt (that might as well have been orchestored by Erdogan himself). When Erdogan did not get his own majority in the elections in the summer of 2015, he breathed new life into the war against the Kurdish PKK to create a sense of threat and insecurity. It worked and in the new election later that year, Erdogan got his majority. The failed military coup gave him even more ammunition. After the coup attempt, around a hundred television channels, newspapers and radio stations were closed. Journalists and teachers were fired, some were imprisoned. In addition, 100,000 people in the public sector were dismissed seemingly arbitrarily. Left party HDP party leaders Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yüksekdag were arrested along with several of the party's parliamentarians. In the year after, more than 6,000 of the party's members were arrested and 2,000 of them were imprisoned. The political religious leaders that could be competitors to Erdogan was accused for being behind the coup and imprisioned or accused of being part of terroristorganisations, Fethullah Gülen supporters were accused of having orchestered the coup, but still, the regime has not presented any real evidence that it was the Gülen movement that was behind it. On July 18 2016, six human rights activists, and Amnesty's operations manager in Turkey, Idil Elser. They were accused of membership in "armed terrorist organization". This came just weeks after Amnesty's Turkey president, Tanner Kilic, was arrested and charged with membership of a terrorist organization. Between 2016 and 2018 In total, around 160,000 people was arrested and in addition about the same number of civil servants was fired, (according to figures from the UN). Of those arrested, over 50,000 have been formally charged with involvement in the coup

You should have flooded the streets and protested then, you didn’t.

The second chanse you missed was on April 16, 2017, when the Yes side won the referendum to reform the presidency. Yes there was rigging involved, but if you had been about 70% to vote no, you would have saved your democracy from further tempering. Now Erdogan has control over the appointment and dismissal of judges and prosecutors and he appoints twelve out of the fifteen judges in your Supreme Court. In 2020 Turkey's parliament approved a law that introduced a series of new rules for the biggest social media platforms. The government wanted to stifle the last vestiges of free speech in Turkey.

The Turks have lived for decades in systems of military dictatorship or authoritarian leaders. The short period of democracy has only lasted for a short time after 2002. In many cases pushed by Erdogan in his early days of power. It is a young, immature democracy where many do not understand the concept of democracy. Democracy means to defend not just the rights of the ones you agree with, but also the rights of those you disagree with.

 

[Rogue Valley]

 

[joluoto]

I wonder if Erdogan actually lost in the first round, and all his cheating only accomplished putting him into Round 2.

 

[PeteEU]

I wonder if Erdogan actually lost in the first round, and all his cheating only accomplished putting him into Round 2.

More like to avoid international accusations of fraud and dictatorship, he now can claim..hey look we needed a runoff and here I won fair and square with 55% of the vote, when he in fact lost in the first round if they had not stuffed the ballot boxes.