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Market futures down (1 Viewer)

I have started to more or less discount the daily market futures for US indexes now. The markets are so driven today by whatever noise comes out of Trumps mouth at any given moment, that expecting any sort of stable direction over a single day is taking a large risk. It is pretty obvious that Trump has moved into damage control mode and is looking for ways to try and minimize the economic damage he is doing, while at the same time being able to maintain the bravado that so impresses the cult. It is a confusing message for the markets, and an awful lot of businesses who have no idea what tomorrows Trump might drop on them

In summary, my current take is that the real economic news will keep downward pressure on the markets for now, while Trump can at any time invent a reason to try and push the markets back up. I have had a large amount invested in different shorts since Trumps election, and an even larger amount since he took office. I have now cleared all but one last large short position and a couple of minor ones, although I do also still hold a very large position against the US$ which I took at the beginning of the year and will stay in place for maybe another couple of years yet. I might regret closing those other shorts already, but the sums involved got way beyond what I was comfortable risking, so decided to be thankful for what I had rather than get too greedy. The final short is one that I have in place assuming that the US (and world) will go into a recession this year. I predicted that back when Trump was elected, and think that prediction is looking really likely now. At election time I predicted Q3 or Q4 as being most likely, and right now I am expecting that we will see a formal recession called when the Q3 numbers are announced. The real uncertainty though is what Trumps next crazy move might be. Maybe he will find a way to take control of fed interest rates and sash them to stimulate consumer spending. That of course would massively increase inflation, and that would push the recession into 2026 maybe. The only thing that might stop a recession now is a massive reversal of Trumps failing policies, but his ego would rather see millions of Americans suffer than have to admit that he is wrong. You get what you vote for!
 
Mycroft said:
It sucks to be a gambler who gets spooked over nothing but fear and panic.
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It sucks to be a Trump sycophant who gets spooked over every criticism of their "leader."
 
I don't know how much more winning US companies can take!

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Mycroft said:
One of Trump's goals is to increase domestic trade.

A reduction in international trade is a deliberate result of Trump's tactics that will result in increased domestic trade.


But all this really has nothing to do with market futures, which are bets for or against future performance. Bottom line: Market futures are NOT the economy. They are simply gambling.
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While I agree with the gambling description and I also don't approve of it, never been a gambler, you can't deny that all these gamblers are gambling with millions of retiree's dollars. So, it does affect the economy.

Approximately 60% of Americans have money invested in the stock market, either directly or through retirement accounts. This means that around 67.7 million US households owned stocks in 2019, with over half of those holdings being indirectly held through funds and retirement accounts. This includes things like mutual funds, ETFs, and retirement plans like 401(k)s and IRAs.
 
Current futures outlook...

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Ishm said:
I have started to more or less discount the daily market futures for US indexes now. The markets are so driven today by whatever noise comes out of Trumps mouth at any given moment, that expecting any sort of stable direction over a single day is taking a large risk. It is pretty obvious that Trump has moved into damage control mode and is looking for ways to try and minimize the economic damage he is doing, while at the same time being able to maintain the bravado that so impresses the cult. It is a confusing message for the markets, and an awful lot of businesses who have no idea what tomorrows Trump might drop on them

In summary, my current take is that the real economic news will keep downward pressure on the markets for now, while Trump can at any time invent a reason to try and push the markets back up. I have had a large amount invested in different shorts since Trumps election, and an even larger amount since he took office. I have now cleared all but one last large short position and a couple of minor ones, although I do also still hold a very large position against the US$ which I took at the beginning of the year and will stay in place for maybe another couple of years yet. I might regret closing those other shorts already, but the sums involved got way beyond what I was comfortable risking, so decided to be thankful for what I had rather than get too greedy. The final short is one that I have in place assuming that the US (and world) will go into a recession this year. I predicted that back when Trump was elected, and think that prediction is looking really likely now. At election time I predicted Q3 or Q4 as being most likely, and right now I am expecting that we will see a formal recession called when the Q3 numbers are announced. The real uncertainty though is what Trumps next crazy move might be. Maybe he will find a way to take control of fed interest rates and sash them to stimulate consumer spending. That of course would massively increase inflation, and that would push the recession into 2026 maybe. The only thing that might stop a recession now is a massive reversal of Trumps failing policies, but his ego would rather see millions of Americans suffer than have to admit that he is wrong. You get what you vote for!
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I stopped at expecting any sort of stable direction. We have been experiencing a stable direction, down, down, down. I don't see it changing in the near future with trump's ego in charge.
 
Mycroft said:
It sucks to be a gambler who gets spooked over nothing but fear and panic.
Click to expand...

What Trump is doing is starting to hurt everyone. It's going to lead to a severe recession. Lot's of people are going to lose their jobs. Lots of businesses are going to go bankrupt.
 
W_Heisenberg said:
Lots of people are going to lose their jobs. Lots of businesses are going to go bankrupt.
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Already in progress. Layoffs on both sides of the border and small to medium size US companies have permanently shut down.

Its going to get much worse.
 
Jredbaron96 said:
Businesses do what they do under the assumption of a stable, predictable environment. Trump is creating the opposite of that with predictably negative effects on the economy.
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Businesses do what they need to do...under any environment they find themselves in...to maintain a profit. Countries do that, too. And that is what Trump is counting on to achieve his America First goals.
 
The AntiDonald said:
While I agree with the gambling description and I also don't approve of it, never been a gambler, you can't deny that all these gamblers are gambling with millions of retiree's dollars.
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Who gave permission for their money to be used by gamblers?

Those retirees.

Seems those retirees bear some responsibility for their actions. Don't you think?

In any case, that doesn't change the fact that gambling in the futures markets is NOT an indication of the economy. It just means a lot of people are leaving their own financial futures in the hands of gamblers.
 
Mycroft said:
Businesses do what they need to do...under any environment they find themselves in...to maintain a profit. Countries do that, too. And that is what Trump is counting on to achieve his America First goals.
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Which are pretty hard to fathom. We HAD an economy that was the envy of the world.
We HAD an established and reliable set of allies and trading partners around the world.
We HAD a solid reputation as being stable and reliable.
Now we are to believe that we will ‘get rich’ by charging ourselves more for the things we buy.
Moronic and stupid.
We are worse off - in so many ways - thanks to trump’s incompetence and ignorance.
 
Mycroft said:
Businesses do what they need to do...under any environment they find themselves in...to maintain a profit. Countries do that, too. And that is what Trump is counting on to achieve his America First goals.
Click to expand...

Maintain profit in what? The US makes tons of money.
 
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