March home sales drop to their slowest pace since 2009

We need a bubble burst in this area, but, also a dramatic expansion of supply.

cpwill said:

We need a bubble burst in this area, but, also a dramatic expansion of supply.

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009...​

​

This count is based on closings, therefore contracts likely signed in January and February, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was over 7%. It did not fall solidly below 7% until Feb. 20, according to Mortgage News Daily....​

​

More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700. That is still an all-time high for the month, but it’s only up 2.7% from last March. That annual comparison has been shrinking since December and is the smallest gain since August....​

​

All-cash sales dropped to 26% from 28% the year before, but investors held steady at 15% of sales. Looking ahead, the Realtors are already reporting a rise in canceled contracts in March, and, given the stock market volatility in April, that could increase.​

Click to expand...

Prices too high, mortgage rates too high, prices on building materials too high, insurance rates too high. There is a lot to fix to bring home ownership more affordable for the middle class.

Integrityrespec said:

Prices too high, mortgage rates too high, prices on building materials too high, insurance rates too high. There is a lot to fix to bring home ownership more affordable for the middle class.

Click to expand...

Tariffs should totally help with the cost of building materials.

cpwill said:

We need a bubble burst in this area, but, also a dramatic expansion of supply.

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009...​

​

This count is based on closings, therefore contracts likely signed in January and February, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was over 7%. It did not fall solidly below 7% until Feb. 20, according to Mortgage News Daily....​

​

More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700. That is still an all-time high for the month, but it’s only up 2.7% from last March. That annual comparison has been shrinking since December and is the smallest gain since August....​

​

All-cash sales dropped to 26% from 28% the year before, but investors held steady at 15% of sales. Looking ahead, the Realtors are already reporting a rise in canceled contracts in March, and, given the stock market volatility in April, that could increase.​

Click to expand...

To afford a 400k home, you need to make 100 to 125k a year. Median household income in the US is about 80k. Seems like a recipe for failure.

Airyaman said:

Tariffs should totally help with the cost of building materials.

Click to expand...

Look, I totally understand people being concerned. However, the past attempts by Presidential administrations have been mostly ineffective and the U.S. gets the shaft from poor negotiations and people who just give in. At least Trump invisions a better deal and has business experience in negotiating business deals. Real world experience and he's not about just giving in. I'm pretty sure it's not an overnight solution but you have to have some leverage to get people to deal. Why do bullies get your milk money, they threaten to beat you up. Here we are making our own leverage to force some changes that are never coming by the lackluster dealing we have seen in the past. I say have some patience, we aren't even out of the first 100 days and twice that would be considered quick as many of our trading nations don't want to stop the gravy train. You get you milk money back when you kick the bullies ass or at least make him believe you can and will.

Integrityrespec said:

Look, I totally understand people being concerned. However, the past attempts by Presidential administrations have been mostly ineffective and the U.S. gets the shaft from poor negotiations and people who just give in. At least Trump invisions a better deal and has business experience in negotiating business deals. Real world experience and he's not about just giving in. I'm pretty sure it's not an overnight solution but you have to have some leverage to get people to deal. Why do bullies get your milk money, they threaten to beat you up. Here we are making our own leverage to force some changes that are never coming by the lackluster dealing we have seen in the past. I say have some patience, we aren't even out of the first 100 days and twice that would be considered quick as many of our trading nations don't want to stop the gravy train. You get you milk money back when you kick the bullies ass or at least make him believe you can and will.

Click to expand...

What vision? What changes? Trump's policy is determined by whoever spoke to him last, and the causes of high housing prices in the US were entirely domestic.

The United States is the richest country in the world, and has been leaving other first world nations in the dust. How, exactly, were we getting "the shaft" from a world trade order whose primary winner was us?

Integrityrespec said:

Look, I totally understand people being concerned. However, the past attempts by Presidential administrations have been mostly ineffective and the U.S. gets the shaft from poor negotiations and people who just give in. At least Trump invisions a better deal and has business experience in negotiating business deals. Real world experience and he's not about just giving in. I'm pretty sure it's not an overnight solution but you have to have some leverage to get people to deal. Why do bullies get your milk money, they threaten to beat you up. Here we are making our own leverage to force some changes that are never coming by the lackluster dealing we have seen in the past. I say have some patience, we aren't even out of the first 100 days and twice that would be considered quick as many of our trading nations don't want to stop the gravy train. You get you milk money back when you kick the bullies ass or at least make him believe you can and will.

Click to expand...

You are aware that USMCA was negotiated and signed by Trump, right?

Airyaman said:

You are aware that USMCA was negotiated and signed by Trump, right?

Click to expand...

I rather suspect it was part of what he was thinking of in fact.

cpwill said:

What vision? What changes? Trump's policy is determined by whoever spoke to him last, and the causes of high housing prices in the US were entirely domestic.

The United States is the richest country in the world, and has been leaving other first world nations in the dust. How, exactly, were we getting "the shaft" from a world trade order whose primary winner was us?

Click to expand...

Trump and Bessent and Lutnick have all conveyed the goal is to get better trade deals with lower tariffs and more open markets with less restrictions on U.S. goods. Another goal is to return business and manufacturing to the U.S. which means more trade, more jobs.
As far as housing prices, most of that blame is on the supply chain fiasco under the previous administration, prices quickly rose and little relief was provided.
Our trade suffered from trade deals that didn't favor us. Dealing with China for instance has included high tariffs, restrictions on U.S. goods and being forced to sign over trade secrets and access to the Chinese for businesses that moved to China. The E.U. has similar trade barriers to the U.S. We have a high level of trade but we also are forced to buy at a higher price while having many of our products either heavily taxed or completely banned. U.S. autos for instance.

Integrityrespec said:

Trump and Bessent and Lutnick have all conveyed the goal is to get better trade deals with lower tariffs and more open markets with less restrictions on U.S. goods. Another goal is to return business and manufacturing to the U.S. which means more trade, more jobs.

Click to expand...

Firstly, those goals are in direct tension with each other. You can't reduce trade barriers in order to increase the openness of markets and raise trade barriers so much that companies "bring back" low-end manufacturing (which they likely wouldn't, anyway, as the current administration is not reliable enough to make long term decisions around).

Secondly, neither of these are the target of our current tariff regime, which was aimed at getting rid of the so-called "Trade Deficit". The assumption we built our tariff regime on was that free trade was bad because it led to wealthier Americans being able to afford to buy more stuff from other countries than those poorer other countries could afford to buy from us (note: this apparently applies only to physical stuff, as the US is a massive exporter of services).

Thirdly, the stated goals of the administration are actually constantly changing, apparently based on who talked to Trump last. Trump, Bessent, Lutnik, and Navarro have all outlined competing and contradictory apparent intents and guiding assumptions - sometimes at the same time on competing television news stations.

Integrityrespec said:

As far as housing prices, most of that blame is on the supply chain fiasco under the previous administration, prices quickly rose and little relief was provided.

Click to expand...

....Eh. Up until lately, (when we decided to dramatically increase the costs of materials) most of that blame is on State and Local law and policies; the major federal impact is its attempts to drive down lending costs, which encourage over-purchasing, and the fat wads of cash it tossed to everyone over COVID (which was the fault of both administrations).

Integrityrespec said:

Our trade suffered from trade deals that didn't favor us.

Click to expand...

...? No it didn't. Our trade has massively benefitted us.

Integrityrespec said:

Dealing with China for instance has included high tariffs, restrictions on U.S. goods and being forced to sign over trade secrets and access to the Chinese for businesses that moved to China. The E.U. has similar trade barriers to the U.S. We have a high level of trade but we also are forced to buy at a higher price while having many of our products either heavily taxed or completely banned. U.S. autos for instance.

Click to expand...

That is incorrect. The EU had much lower restrictions and had offered us zero - for - zero, which (in a perfect test of your above hypothesis) the Trump administration refused, because (at least, on that day) the goal wasn't freer trade, but, rather, to end the fact that Europeans make stuff that we want to buy at prices we wish to buy it at, because the President occasionally decides this is somehow us getting "screwed".

Im so glad i paid off my mortgage already. I was so happy i burned a copy of my mortgage papers in my small metal foundry

cpwill said:

We need a bubble burst in this area, but, also a dramatic expansion of supply.

Click to expand...

Prices are likely to remain stable if Trump backs off of his caveman agenda. In areas that have witnessed the highest surges, we should expect them to come back down to reality while lagging zip codes outperform (because they're cheaper).

Kushinator said:

Prices are likely to remain stable if Trump backs off of his caveman agenda

Click to expand...

Sure. And if that monkey that we just gave a massive hit of cocaine to composes an opera, we'll have some music.

Trump's staff seems to be lying to him about economic reporting now, to make him think his policies are more efficacious than they are. I don't know if we can rely on him even reliably getting negative feedback, much less believing it, much less responding appropriately to it.

Kushinator said:

In areas that have witnessed the highest surges, we should expect them to come back down to reality while lagging zip codes outperform (because they're cheaper).

Click to expand...

That'd be nice?