They are wrong.
ON CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND WHY IT IS PROBABLY SMALL
ON IPCCS EXAGGERATED CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND THE EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES
[FONT=&]. . . In any case, irrespective of whether you favor the global data, or the oceanic data, it is clear the the temperature with its fluctuations is inconsistent with the "high estimate" in the IPCC-FAR (and it has been the case for a decade if you take the oceanic temperature, or half a decade, if you take the global temperature, not admitting that it is biased). In fact, it appears that only the low estimate can presently be consistent with the observations. Clearly then, earth's climate sensitivity should be revised down, and the upper range of sensitivities should be discarded and with it, the apocalyptic scenarios which they imply. For some reason, I doubt that the next AR5 report will consider this inconsistency, nor that they will revise down the climate sensitivity (and which is consistent with [/FONT]
other empirical indicators of climate sensitivity[FONT=&]). I am also curious when will the general public realize that the emperor has no clothes. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]Of course, Andrew commented that the alarmists will always claim that there might be something else which has been cooling, and we will pay for our CO2 sevenfold later. The short answer is that “you can fool some of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time!” (or as it should be adapted here, “you cannot fool most of the people indefinitely!”). [/FONT]
[FONT=&]The longer answer is that even climate alarmists realize that there is a problem, but they won’t admit it in public. In private, as the climategate e-mails have revealed, they know it is a problem. In October 2009, Kevin Trenberth wrote his colleagues:[/FONT]
The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
[FONT=&]However, instead of reaching the reasonable conclusion that the theory should be modified, the data are "surely wrong". (This, btw, is a sign of a new religion, since no fact can disprove the basic tenets). [/FONT]
[FONT=&]When you think of it, those climatologists are in a rather awkward position. If you exclude the denial option (apparent in the above quote), then the only way to explain the “travesty” is if you have a joker card, something which can provide warming, but which the models don’t take into account. It is a catch-22 for the modelers. If they admit that there is a joker, it disarms their claim that since one cannot explain the 20th century warming without the anthropogenic contribution, the warming is necessarily anthropogenic. If they do not admit that there is a joker, they must conclude (as described above) that the climate sensitivity must be low. But if it is low, one cannot explain the 20th century without a joker. A classic Yossarian dilemma. [/FONT]
[FONT=&]This joker card is of course the large solar effects on climate. [/FONT]
