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Mapping The Global Future: 2020

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Albert Di Salvo

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Have you ever wondered what the future would be like? The US Govt. does.

The US National Intelligence Council periodically makes predictions about the future. But American intelligence leaves much to be desired. Be that as it may, the NIC prepared Mapping The Global Future in December 2004. It was subsequently obtained by the public through the Freedom of Information Act.

I read it a few years ago, and found it shocking in its prediction that the American Era would probably end by the year 2020. Here are the alternative futures the NIC predicts:

"...
Possible Futures

In this era of great flux, we see several ways in which major global changes could take
shape in the next 15 years, from seriously challenging the nation-state system to
establishing a more robust and inclusive globalization. In the body of this paper we
develop these concepts in four fictional scenarios which were extrapolated from the key
trends we discuss in this report. These scenarios are not meant as actual forecasts,
but they describe possible worlds upon whose threshold we may be entering,
depending on how trends interweave and play out:
• Davos World provides an illustration of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization process—giving it a more non-Western face and transforming the political playing field as well.
• Pax Americana takes a look at how US predominance may survive the radical
changes to the global political landscape and serve to fashion a new and inclusive
global order.
• A New Caliphate provides an example of how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity politics could constitute a challenge to Western norms and values as the foundation of the global system.
• Cycle of Fear provides an example of how concerns about proliferation might
increase to the point that large-scale intrusive security measures are taken to
prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian world..."

Read more: http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf
 
ReverendHellh0und said:
Read it. it doesn't say it, this is conspiracy bunk.
Click to expand...

The end of the American Era doesn't mean the end of America. It means the end of Pax Americana which has been in existence since 1945. The National Intelligence Council doesn't even say Pax Americana will definitely end. It says that Pax Americana may end by 2020, and be replaced by other possible international realities.

What do you think about what the National Intelligence Council called Davos World?
 
Pax Americana is not going to survive to 2020, neither will a Caliphate. Any fundi caliphate would face economic and social declines from the moment it was created.

The most likely thing to occur by 2020 is a combo of A Davos world and Cycle of Fear (although not due to proliferation, but the decline of Pax Americana)


All power derives from economic power over the long term. While the US will remain a world economic power ( and most likely still be the economic power by 2020) its lead will not be as high as it is now, meaning its geopolitical power (military, political) will be relatively lower in 2020 then it is now or was in 2004). Not having the US being the world's only power will lead to feelings of insecurity in more then a few areas
 
Imo it is important for Americans to come to grips with the fact that we are in a transitional phase of history.



http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf Page 67:



US Unipolarity—How Long Can It Last?

"...A world with a single superpower is
unique in modern times. Despite the rise
in anti-Americanism, most major powers
today believe countermeasures such as
balancing are not likely to work in a
situation in which the US controls so
many of the levers of power. Moreover,
US policies are not perceived as
sufficiently threatening to warrant such a
step.
• Growing numbers of people around
the world, especially in the Middle
East and the broader Muslim world,
believe the US is bent on regional
domination—or direct political and
economic domination of other states
and their resources. In the future,
growing distrust could prompt
governments to take a more hostile
approach, including resistance to
support for US interests in
multinational forums and development
of asymmetric military capabilities as a
hedge against the US...."
 
Fewer countries are willing to cooperate with America. That means American power will be reduced. Pages 67:


"...Most countries are likely to experiment
with a variety of different tactics from
various degrees of resistance to
engagement in an effort to influence how
US power is exercised. We expect that
countries will pursue strategies designed
to exclude or isolate the US..."
 
"Fictional Scenario: Pax
Americana

The scenario portrayed below looks at
how US predominance may survive
radical changes to the global political
landscape, with Washington
remaining the central pivot for
international politics. It is depicted as
the diary entry by a fictitious UN
Secretary-General in 2020. Under
this scenario, key alliances and
relationships with Europe and Asia
undergo change. US-European
cooperation is renewed, including on
the Middle East. There are new
security arrangements in Asia, but the
United States still does the heavy
lifting. The scenario also suggests
that Washington has to struggle to
assert leadership in an increasingly
diverse, complex, and fast-paced
world. At the end of the scenario, we
identify lessons learned from how the
scenario played out." Pages 65-71.

This is one of the possible futures, but I don't think the American people are still willing to do the heavy lifting.
 
Last edited:
The 20th Century was the American Century. The 21st Century may be the Asian Century. Page 47:


"The likely emergence of China and India
as new major global players—similar to
the rise of Germany in the 19th century
and the United States in the early 20th
century—will transform the geopolitical
landscape, with impacts potentially as
dramatic as those of the previous two
centuries. In the same way that
commentators refer to the 1900s as the
“American Century,” the early 21st century
may be seen as the time when some in
the developing world, led by China and
India, come into their own."

It's a new day and the past is probably not going to be prolouge.
 
The National Intelligence Council's analysis continues at p. 47:

"A combination of sustained high
economic growth, expanding military
capabilities, active promotion of high
technologies, and large populations will
be at the root of the expected rapid rise in
economic and political power for both
countries.
• Because of the sheer size of China’s
and India’s populations—projected by
the US Census Bureau to be 1.4
billion and almost 1.3 billion
respectively by 2020—their standard
of living need not approach Western
levels for these countries to become
important economic powers.
• China, for example, is now the third
largest producer of manufactured
goods, its share having risen from four
to 12 percent in the past decade. It
should easily surpass Japan in a few
years, not only in share of
manufacturing but also of the world’s
exports. Competition from “the China
price” already powerfully restrains
manufactures prices worldwide.
• India currently lags behind China (see
box on page 53) on most economic
measures, but most economists
believe it also will sustain high levels
of economic growth."
 
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