Looks like reps will gain about 50 seats nationwide

[Perotista]

NOO, for a guy that's been put through what he's been put through, and gets more votes than ever, it's ****ing political landslide! Democrats failed in every way that's possible, and they're continuing to defend it.

I think you’re looking at this wrong. Let’s go with history, no sitting president with a job approval of below 50% has won reelection nor has his replacement won the election. The list.

1952 Truman 33%, his replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower

1968 LBJ 43%, his replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon

1976 Ford 45%, Ford lost reelection to Carter

1980 Carter 37%, Carter lost reelection to Reagan

1992 G.H.W. Bush 34%, Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton

2008 G.W. Bush 28%, his replacement McCain lost to Obama

2020 Trump 43%, Trump lost reelection to Biden

2024 Biden 41%, his replacement Harris lost to Trump.

Biden was at 41% overall job approval and somewhere his disapproval on handling most issues was somewhere between 55-65%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues

Given those numbers, the GOP should have won in a landslide, not barely by 1.6 points or a net loss of `1 seat in the House. Not the democrats. This election shouldn’t have been as close as it was, at least through historical standards. Carter had about the same approval/disapproval numbers as Biden, Reagan beat him by 10 points, the GOP gained 35 house seats and 12 senators. Given Biden’s numbers, this election shouldn’t have been close.

 

[Helix]

Yes, voter turnout was the key. The republicans got their base out, the democrats not so much. A drop in voter turnout, from 65.8% 2020 down to 63.7% 2024 using VEP, down from 159 million voters in 2020 to 156 million in 2024. The big difference was democrats made up 37% of those who actually voted to 35% for republicans in 2020. This year, the republicans remain the same 35% of those who voted, but the democrats dropped to 31%. This is very interesting since the democrats enjoyed a 3-point advantage in party affiliation this year. They didn’t get their base out.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

This also explains the drop from Biden’s 81 million votes in 2020 to Harris’s 75 million rounding off. The question is why did so many Biden voters in 2020 sit this election out? Why the much lower democratic base turnout? The drop was huge, 6 points. It’s not like the normal one or two point deviation between elections. Trump’s gain from 74 million to 77 million can be explained by independents which went to Biden 54-41 in 2020 to Harris in 2024 by a 49-46 margin. A democratic drop from plus 13 to a plus 3. Still, it was the republicans who got their people to the polls, the democrats failed. Why becomes the big question. Taking a SWAG, I’d say those democrats who didn’t vote were very dissatisfied with Biden and company’s handling of the economy, inflation, rising prices, immigration. They opted to stay home, not vote rather than voting for Trump. It all comes back to job disapproval and the disapproval of the Biden administration handling of most issues

Had the democratic base turned out in the same numbers, percentage as 2020, Harris would be headed to the white house instead of going back to California. Why didn’t they?

Good question. I'm an independent, and I waited an hour and a half in line to vote. I mostly blame Republicans for this awful thing that they've done, but I also fart in the general direction of people who couldn't be bothered to vote against it.

 

[American]

I think you’re looking at this wrong. Let’s go with history, no sitting president with a job approval of below 50% has won reelection nor has his replacement won the election. The list.

1952 Truman 33%, his replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower

1968 LBJ 43%, his replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon

1976 Ford 45%, Ford lost reelection to Carter

1980 Carter 37%, Carter lost reelection to Reagan

1992 G.H.W. Bush 34%, Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton

2008 G.W. Bush 28%, his replacement McCain lost to Obama

2020 Trump 43%, Trump lost reelection to Biden

2024 Biden 41%, his replacement Harris lost to Trump.

Biden was at 41% overall job approval and somewhere his disapproval on handling most issues was somewhere between 55-65%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues

Given those numbers, the GOP should have won in a landslide, not barely by 1.6 points or a net loss of `1 seat in the House. Not the democrats. This election shouldn’t have been as close as it was, at least through historical standards. Carter had about the same approval/disapproval numbers as Biden, Reagan beat him by 10 points, the GOP gained 35 house seats and 12 senators. Given Biden’s numbers, this election shouldn’t have been close.

You're not going to change the minds of the hardcore indoctrinated. It doesn't matter how awesome you are, they won't vote for you. Minorities, until recently, voted for whom they were told to vote for, and were ostracized if they didn't. It's called tribalism nowadays, because it has become painfully obvious given the horrible performance of people like Biden, yet people still voted for him or his ilk. Unfortunately the Left has controlled the academic institutions that create voters from a young age, which makes many of them non-thinkers who vote based on how they feel. These people actually believe that Trump is Hitler, and can't see that's it just an election propaganda tactic. This last election was the first time in about half a century that we've seen a significant shift of a constituency due to the massive blatant and galactically obvious un-American policies and economic losses that minorities have suffered in the last 4 years.

 

[Perotista]

Good question. I'm an independent, and I waited an hour and a half in line to vote. I mostly blame Republicans for this awful thing that they've done, but I also fart in the general direction of people who couldn't be bothered to vote against it.

I like swing voter better than independent. I’ll swing back and forth between the major parties with every so often, a vote for a third party candidate when I dislike both major party candidates. I was kind of indifferent this time around. I couldn’t get excited about either Trump or Harris. If I had my druthers, we’d have someone other than those two as president.

 

[Puigb]

You're not going to change the minds of the hardcore indoctrinated. It doesn't matter how awesome you are, they won't vote for you. Minorities, until recently, voted for whom they were told to vote for, and were ostracized if they didn't. It's called tribalism nowadays, because it has become painfully obvious given the horrible performance of people like Biden, yet people still voted for him or his ilk. Unfortunately the Left has controlled the academic institutions that create voters from a young age, which makes many of them non-thinkers who vote based on how they feel. These people actually believe that Trump is Hitler, and can't see that's it just an election propaganda tactic. This last election was the first time in about half a century that we've seen a significant shift of a constituency due to the massive blatant and galactically obvious un-American policies and economic losses that minorities have suffered in the last 4 years.

. All this drivel said by a guy who has undoubtedly voted Republican his entire life, including for many of those so called "RINO's!" Trump and his goons say are bad people now.

 

[Perotista]

You're not going to change the minds of the hardcore indoctrinated. It doesn't matter how awesome you are, they won't vote for you. Minorities, until recently, voted for whom they were told to vote for, and were ostracized if they didn't. It's called tribalism nowadays, because it has become painfully obvious given the horrible performance of people like Biden, yet people still voted for him or his ilk. Unfortunately the Left has controlled the academic institutions that create voters from a young age, which makes many of them non-thinkers who vote based on how they feel. These people actually believe that Trump is Hitler, and can't see that's it just an election propaganda tactic. This last election was the first time in about half a century that we've seen a significant shift of a constituency due to the massive blatant and galactically obvious un-American policies and economic losses that minorities have suffered in the last 4 years.

You’re correct, no one or nothing will ever change the hardcore voter. The avid partisan or party loyalist. It’s a complete waste of time and energy. Who usually decides elections are the unaffiliate, less to non-partisans voters. I used to use the word independent, but many of those who state they’re independent lean toward one party or the other. They call Sanders and King in the senate independents, but they’re hardcore democratic, liberal voters, very partisan who vote the democratic party line more than most democratic senators.

 

[Puigb]

Yes, voter turnout was the key. The republicans got their base out, the democrats not so much. A drop in voter turnout, from 65.8% 2020 down to 63.7% 2024 using VEP, down from 159 million voters in 2020 to 156 million in 2024. The big difference was democrats made up 37% of those who actually voted to 35% for republicans in 2020. This year, the republicans remain the same 35% of those who voted, but the democrats dropped to 31%. This is very interesting since the democrats enjoyed a 3-point advantage in party affiliation this year. They didn’t get their base out.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

This also explains the drop from Biden’s 81 million votes in 2020 to Harris’s 75 million rounding off. The question is why did so many Biden voters in 2020 sit this election out? Why the much lower democratic base turnout? The drop was huge, 6 points. It’s not like the normal one or two point deviation between elections. Trump’s gain from 74 million to 77 million can be explained by independents which went to Biden 54-41 in 2020 to Harris in 2024 by a 49-46 margin. A democratic drop from plus 13 to a plus 3. Still, it was the republicans who got their people to the polls, the democrats failed. Why becomes the big question. Taking a SWAG, I’d say those democrats who didn’t vote were very dissatisfied with Biden and company’s handling of the economy, inflation, rising prices, immigration. They opted to stay home, not vote rather than voting for Trump. It all comes back to job disapproval and the disapproval of the Biden administration handling of most issues

Had the democratic base turned out in the same numbers, percentage as 2020, Harris would be headed to the white house instead of going back to California. Why didn’t they?

Democrats are more fickle than GOP voters. GOP voters worship Trump. Democrats never loved Biden like they did Obama and Bill Clinton. Add to the fact that Biden was 81 years old running for a second term...it suppressed turn out.

The fact that Trump still lost independents by 3 despite Harris being tied to a president with a 41% approval rating speaks volumes, and doesn't bode well for the GOP in future elections, particularly 2026 and 2028, IMO. Add to the fact that the GOP down ballot and in the senate all underperformed Trump, especially in the swing states....shows that there are a group of voters who like "trumpism" only when it's from trump himself, not anyone else. This is why the Trump endorsed candidates all lost in 2022, and many of them lost in 2024 despite Trump winning and being on the same ballot as them. 2026 without Trump on the ballot could be a bloodbath for the GOP, especially if his approvals end up as low (or lower?) than during his first term.

 

[Perotista]

Democrats are more fickle than GOP voters. GOP voters worship Trump. Democrats never loved Biden like they did Obama and Bill Clinton. Add to the fact that Biden was 81 years old running for a second term...it suppressed turn out.

The fact that Trump still lost independents by 3 despite Harris being tied to a president with a 41% approval rating speaks volumes, and doesn't bode well for the GOP in future elections, particularly 2026 and 2028, IMO. Add to the fact that the GOP down ballot and in the senate all underperformed Trump, especially in the swing states....shows that there are a group of voters who like "trumpism" only when it's from trump himself, not anyone else. This is why the Trump endorsed candidates all lost in 2022, and many of them lost in 2024 despite Trump winning and being on the same ballot as them. 2026 without Trump on the ballot could be a bloodbath for the GOP, especially if his approvals end up as low (or lower?) than during his first term.

I agree. Perhaps a blue wave in 2026, a very real possibility. I would say Trump was elected to tame inflation, energize the economy, stop price risings, secure the border. He wasn’t elected to gut the federal government as many of his cabinet nominee suggest. It seems Trump wants to go off the deep in, which I think will show up in his job approval/disapproval within 2 weeks of him taking office.

 

[Puigb]

I agree. Perhaps a blue wave in 2026, a very real possibility. I would say Trump was elected to tame inflation, energize the economy, stop price risings, secure the border. He wasn’t elected to gut the federal government as many of his cabinet nominee suggest. It seems Trump wants to go off the deep in, which I think will show up in his job approval/disapproval within 2 weeks of him taking office.

I honestly think Trump was elected because Biden was 81 years old, unpopular, and Dem voters didn't show up. Trump lost independents and moderates...but he got his voters to turn out, which gave him the win.

If Americans who voted really wanted the Trump/MAGA agenda to be implemented, the GOP would have seen the same success he saw down ballot and in the senate, and honestly it didn't pan out that way. Besides the presidency, the election was basically a draw.

 

[Helix]

I like swing voter better than independent. I’ll swing back and forth between the major parties with every so often, a vote for a third party candidate when I dislike both major party candidates. I was kind of indifferent this time around. I couldn’t get excited about either Trump or Harris. If I had my druthers, we’d have someone other than those two as president.

Same, but I didn't have to hold my nose for Harris as much as I have in the past, especially considering the alternative that we're all getting ready to find out about.

 

[Perotista]

I honestly think Trump was elected because Biden was 81 years old, unpopular, and Dem voters didn't show up. Trump lost independents and moderates...but he got his voters to turn out, which gave him the win.

If Americans who voted really wanted the Trump/MAGA agenda to be implemented, the GOP would have seen the same success he saw down ballot and in the senate, and honestly it didn't pan out that way. Besides the presidency, the election was basically a draw.

That’s one way to put, a draw. Keep in mind Trump’s won the popular vote by 1.6 points, the GOP will end up with what looks like a one seat loss in the House. In other words, one might call this election a rejection of Biden and his administration without being an endorsement for Trump and the GOP. Yes, it’s odd given the recent history of senate races going to the party that won the presidency. Winning 4 out of the 5 swing states senate races while Trump won each state. Only once in the last several presidential election cycles did a senator from the opposite party of the party that won the state, won the senate seat. That was Collins in Maine, 2020.

I can see where you would deduce the Biden factor. He was only receiving 39% of the vote when he withdrew on 21 July. Harris replaced him and ended up with 48.3%. I would say Harris simply couldn’t overcome the Biden factor, much like you posted. She gave it a darn good shot though. But the historical fact that no sitting president has won reelection, or his replacement won the next election with an overall job approval below 50% remains intact. 8 elections beginning in 1952 when a sitting president approval was below 50%, 8 losses for either the sitting president and or his replacement.

 

[Perotista]

Same, but I didn't have to hold my nose for Harris as much as I have in the past, especially considering the alternative that we're all getting ready to find out about.

And find out we will. I can’t blame folks for voting their own personal situation. Many thought they were better off financially and living standard under Trump than they were under Biden.

 

[Helix]

And find out we will. I can’t blame folks for voting their own personal situation. Many thought they were better off financially and living standard under Trump than they were under Biden.

IMO, people like that need to turn off the faux like I did.

 

[yankintx]

50 seats? Am I missing something? Trump won the popular vote by 1.6 points which makes this the third closest election since 1900 with only 1960 and 2000 being closer. A rout in the electoral college, yes. But this shows a nation divided evenly. This evenly divide can be seen in the house elections which currently stand 220-213 republican with 2 seats not yet decided. Both are held by republicans, the democrat leads in one, the republican in the other. If that holds, that a loss of 1 seat from the current 222-213 GOP advantage.

The gain of 4 seats in the senate, the gain of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia was totally expected. Deep red states all of them. Pennsylvania maybe a bit of a surprise. But since Trump won Pennsylvania, not much of a surprise. No change in governors, state legislatures, the GOP gained 1.

But....Fox and the MAGAS claim it as a landslide lol

 

[Perotista]

But....Fox and the MAGAS claim it as a landslide lol

The facts say differently, no landslide regardless of what the GOP and Fox News state. Since my original post the republicans lost another house seat which leaves them with a 220-215 advantage come January. When one looks at the whole picture or the forest instead of just a tree so to speak, this election ended up being the the third closest election since 1900 with only 1960 and 2000 being closer.

Still, the republicans will have full control of government. Both chambers of congress and the presidency. What remains to be seen is what they'll do with that. Will they use that power to fix our problems like inflation, rising prices, illegal immigration or use that control to seek revenge on their political opponents? Being the vindictive nature of Trump, I suspect the latter.

 

[Lord of Planar]

But....Fox and the MAGAS claim it as a landslide lol

I think it matters which goalpost you look at. Didn't he win all the swing states?

 

[Perotista]

I think it matters which goalpost you look at. Didn't he win all the swing states?

Landslide? 1964, 1980 and 1984 were considered landslide victories. In 1964 LBJ won the popular vote by 22 points, carried 44 states plus D.C. the democrats gained 37 house seats and a single senate seat. But in the senate the democrats already had a 67-33 advantage, after the 64 election it increased to 68-32. 1980, Reagan won the popular vote by 10 points, he also carried 44 states. The republicans gained 35 house seats and 12 senate seats. In 1984 Reagan won the popular vote by 18 points over Mondale, carried 49 states, although the republicans were only able to gain 18 house seats. Not surprising considering the GOP gained 35 back in 1980, the GOP only gained 1 senate seat that year. Compare those three elections to this year. Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points, he carried 31 states. But the republicans lost 2 house seats while gaining 4 senate seats. Certainly not in the same class of landslide of Reagan and LBJ.

I’d say considering the above, 2024 wasn’t a landslide at all. Not when looking at the whole picture.

 

[Lord of Planar]

Landslide? 1964, 1980 and 1984 were considered landslide victories. In 1964 LBJ won the popular vote by 22 points, carried 44 states plus D.C. the democrats gained 37 house seats and a single senate seat. But in the senate the democrats already had a 67-33 advantage, after the 64 election it increased to 68-32. 1980, Reagan won the popular vote by 10 points, he also carried 44 states. The republicans gained 35 house seats and 12 senate seats. In 1984 Reagan won the popular vote by 18 points over Mondale, carried 49 states, although the republicans were only able to gain 18 house seats. Not surprising considering the GOP gained 35 back in 1980, the GOP only gained 1 senate seat that year. Compare those three elections to this year. Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points, he carried 31 states. But the republicans lost 2 house seats while gaining 4 senate seats. Certainly not in the same class of landslide of Reagan and LBJ.

I’d say considering the above, 2024 wasn’t a landslide at all. Not when looking at the whole picture.

I was only pointing out a different goal to consider. In an earlier post I agreed it was not a landslide.

 

[MAGAnificent]

Largely due to the gerrymander.

Which is largely due to republicans taking control of the majority of state legislatures in the 2010 midterm elections, largely due to the passage of the ACA.

 

[MAGAnificent]

Good question. I'm an independent, and I waited an hour and a half in line to vote. I mostly blame Republicans for this awful thing that they've done, but I also fart in the general direction of people who couldn't be bothered to vote against it.

On your next trip to the grocery store or pharmacy, pick up some Beano.

 

[mrjurrs]

"Republicans appear on track to gain about 50 net seats among the 7,386 state legislative seats nationwide." – National Conference of State Legislatures​

50 / 7386 = 0.68%

A shift of less than one percent doesn't appear to be very significant. YMMV.

That's because you understand math.

 

[mrjurrs]

The facts say differently, no landslide regardless of what the GOP and Fox News state. Since my original post the republicans lost another house seat which leaves them with a 220-215 advantage come January. When one looks at the whole picture or the forest instead of just a tree so to speak, this election ended up being the the third closest election since 1900 with only 1960 and 2000 being closer.

Still, the republicans will have full control of government. Both chambers of congress and the presidency. What remains to be seen is what they'll do with that. Will they use that power to fix our problems like inflation, rising prices, illegal immigration or use that control to seek revenge on their political opponents? Being the vindictive nature of Trump, I suspect the latter.

They'll dump the filibuster...and still struggle getting a majority vote in the House.

Fix inflation? They took out the Pharmacy Benefit Manager regulations that would not have cost anything (essentially) and would have cut costs for everyone needing prescription drugs.

 

[CaughtInThe]

MAGAs screwed their own kids/grandkids/great grandkids.

We already knew that.