Looking Forward to new technologies

[Robertinfremont]

One thing I enjoy about Dr. Judith Curry is she is a devout optimist.

She will inform you in her blog site things for you to know.
So in the spirit of good will, let's begin with her discussion of new technologies.

Looking forward: new technologies in the 2020’s

by Judith Curry Looking ahead towards new energy technologies, plus my own saga and rationale for transitioning my personal power generation and consumption.

judithcurry.com

Energy

The 2010s were the wind and solar decade. We observed stunning declines in the cost of both, although total deployment of wind and solar remains small—in 2019, wind and solar represented less than 9 percent of utility-scale electricity generation in the US. In the 2020s, cost declines will likely stall—wind and solar are already pretty cheap, so the declines of the past decade are not reproducible. Deployment, on the other hand, will accelerate.

Mass deployment of wind and solar will bring challenges. These sources are highly intermittent. When the wind suddenly stops blowing—which happens—we need a way to quickly make up the deficit. Each of the three electricity grids in the continental US—east, west, and Texas—has to remain in supply-demand balance every second of every day. We can use grid storage to smooth out some of the bumps, but storage remains expensive. To reach a grid powered entirely by today’s renewables, we would need storage at a price of $20 per kWh (with caveats).

That storage doesn’t all have to come from batteries, but let’s talk about batteries for a bit. Using Tesla’s grid-scale Powerpack as data, a 232 kWh battery today costs $125,793. That is a price of over $542/kWh. Through innovation, that pricetag will come down over the course of this decade, but improvements on the supply side could easily get swamped by increases in demand. After all, this decade will also include a huge shift toward electric vehicles, which I will discuss below. When demand outpaces supply, prices tend to stay high, even when there is impressive innovation.

 

[MamboDervish]

One thing I enjoy about Dr. Judith Curry is she is a devout optimist.

She will inform you in her blog site things for you to know.
So in the spirit of good will, let's begin with her discussion of new technologies.

Looking forward: new technologies in the 2020’s

by Judith Curry Looking ahead towards new energy technologies, plus my own saga and rationale for transitioning my personal power generation and consumption.

judithcurry.com

Energy

The 2010s were the wind and solar decade. We observed stunning declines in the cost of both, although total deployment of wind and solar remains small—in 2019, wind and solar represented less than 9 percent of utility-scale electricity generation in the US. In the 2020s, cost declines will likely stall—wind and solar are already pretty cheap, so the declines of the past decade are not reproducible. Deployment, on the other hand, will accelerate.

Mass deployment of wind and solar will bring challenges. These sources are highly intermittent. When the wind suddenly stops blowing—which happens—we need a way to quickly make up the deficit. Each of the three electricity grids in the continental US—east, west, and Texas—has to remain in supply-demand balance every second of every day. We can use grid storage to smooth out some of the bumps, but storage remains expensive. To reach a grid powered entirely by today’s renewables, we would need storage at a price of $20 per kWh (with caveats).

That storage doesn’t all have to come from batteries, but let’s talk about batteries for a bit. Using Tesla’s grid-scale Powerpack as data, a 232 kWh battery today costs $125,793. That is a price of over $542/kWh. Through innovation, that pricetag will come down over the course of this decade, but improvements on the supply side could easily get swamped by increases in demand. After all, this decade will also include a huge shift toward electric vehicles, which I will discuss below. When demand outpaces supply, prices tend to stay high, even when there is impressive innovation.

And concurrent with those developments, our use of electricity has been becoming more and more efficient by leaps and bounds. Just compare the costs associated with running an old-style CRT television with the cost of contemporary flat screens. Or the difference between LED lighting and incandescents. And that barely scratches the surface. Smarter homes which turn lights on and off based on usage, for example. More efficient insulation to reduce heating and air conditioning costs. The energy issue is being tackled from both sides - supply and demand.

 

[Robertinfremont]

And concurrent with those developments, our use of electricity has been becoming more and more efficient by leaps and bounds. Just compare the costs associated with running an old-style CRT television with the cost of contemporary flat screens. Or the difference between LED lighting and incandescents. And that barely scratches the surface. Smarter homes which turn lights on and off based on usage, for example. More efficient insulation to reduce heating and air conditioning costs. The energy issue is being tackled from both sides - supply and demand.

This spin is exactly what I encourage. I happen to understand all salient terms so wait for more by the ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ author to back up his own assertions.

He should have compared the costs of the CRT vs Flat screen.
He should have compared the costs of the LED to the incandescents.

America has a enormous stock of old homes that are not equipped for LEDs.

The home I live in is fully equipped for LEDs as well as our TV sets are all Flat Screen.
I pay 50% of the cost of energy and report my bill goes up virtually every month to pay for our costs. We also have the latest best rated HVAC system available managed by computers.

 

[MamboDervish]

This spin is exactly what I encourage. I happen to understand all salient terms so wait for more by the ⬆ ⬆ ⬆ author to back up his own assertions.

He should have compared the costs of the CRT vs Flat screen.
He should have compared the costs of the LED to the incandescents.

America has a enormous stock of old homes that are not equipped for LEDs.

The home I live in is fully equipped for LEDs as well as our TV sets are all Flat Screen.
I pay 50% of the cost of energy and report my bill goes up virtually every month to pay for our costs. We also have the latest best rated HVAC system available managed by computers.

And I suspect your insulation is up to par, also?