Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:
House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149
There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.
Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.
And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.
Not really, one of the three states that hasn't finalized a map yet is Florida. Though the Democrats have done a better job of filibustering this time.Really? That would mean that the Democrats have a decent chance of retaining the House.
Yep. It's a gimme. You don't have to bother to vote.Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:
House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149
There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.
Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.
And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.
True, and considering how narrow the Democratic majority currently is that alone would probably hand control back to the Republicans. The question is how large the new Republican majority is--the larger it is, the more wiggle room the Republican House leadership has with legislation.The party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:
House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149
There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.
Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.
And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.
red wave time...Yup, you beat me to it (a bit). So adding the Senate, we get this:
House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149
There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.
Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.
And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.
Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 15
Likely Republican: 3
Leans Republican: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36
Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:
Standard election: 51R-49D
Republican bump: 52R-48D
Republican wave: 54R-46D
Even with a wave election, a Republican Senate would be far short of a filibuster-proof majority, much less a veto-proof majority.
— Last month, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) vetoed redistricting plans that his Republican legislature produced. In a special session last week, legislators deferred to DeSantis and passed his preferred plan.
— Under the DeSantis plan, Republicans are likely to emerge with a 20-8 edge in Florida’s delegation, up from their current 16-11 advantage.
— We don’t see any of the districts on the new Florida plan as especially competitive, although candidate quality may matter in some districts.
I think W's first midterm (2002) was the only time in my life this didn't happen and that was an aberration due to the 9-11 massacreThe party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 230.5R-204.5D. Not a spectacular majority, but better than what the Democrats have right now.
Senate
Republicans not running: 29
Safe Republican: 14
Likely Republican: 4
Leans Republican: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Leans Democrat: 1
Likely Democrat: 2
Safe Democrat: 8
Democrats not running: 36
Using the same breakdowns as the House above, we get:
Standard election: 51R-49D
I can't believe I lost track of this one for so long!Opinion polling is already baked into the numbers, so your further speculation is about opinion moving from where it is now.
I am a republican that will be voting for a democrat.Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:
House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149
There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.
Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.
And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans,"
The House elections are very much based on local politics, and much more difficult to predict as there are so many local factors.Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is the site I follow for election predictions, and here's what he currently has for the House:
House
Safe Republican: 165
Likely Republican: 11
Leans Republican: 8
Toss-Up: 25
Leans Democrat: 16
Likely Democrat: 23
Safe Democrat: 149
There are three states with 38 electoral votes that haven't finalized maps yet, so that doesn't add up to 435.
So, figuring that in a "standard" election a party will pick up around 2/3 of their own "Leans," half the "Toss-Ups," and a third of the other party's "Leans," that would give an election result around 199R-198D.
Then there's a Republican bump, where they keep all their "Leans" and take 2/3 of the "Toss-Ups" and half the Democrats' "Leans" and we get 209R-188D.
And then there's a major Republican blowout, where they keep all their "Leans," win all the "Toss-Ups," and take 2/3 of the Democrats "Leans." That would give us 220R-177D.
100% agreeThe party in power often loses seats during a president's first term.
It's not a normal midterm. I do hope that those who reject the radicalized Republican party show up to vote.100% agree
Is 2022 a normal midterm?
Will the elimination of Roe be a factor? The Dems have gotten a slight bump in polls. Will younger women show up to vote?
And yet, his accuracy rate is pretty impressive. He was very close in everything from 2002 midterms until 2016, where he, like every other polling expert, failed miserably.Larry Sabato is a hack.
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