Kyle Bass On Why the Chinese Economy is Going to Collapse (1 Viewer)

[JoeB131]

It continues to be called a treaty, and was signed beforehand. Taiwan has the right to self-determination, and this cannot be vetoed by either China or the US.
When the people of Taiwan don't see themselves as part of China and have never lived under CCP, that's all that really matters. Anything else is pure nonsense.
Maybe CCP can relenquish power in China as an incentive to get Taiwanese to want to join China.

Except...

They call themselves the Republic of China and insist the few countries they have formal diplomatic relations with call them that, too. I personally think it's a tad delusional, but that's what they are calling themselves.


Taiwan has 12 diplomatic allies that recognise Taiwan as the ROC (and thus do not have official relations with Beijing): Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Marshall Islands, Palau, Paraguay, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Eswatini and Tuvalu.

No, man - Chinese people live under CCP because CCP has all the guns, which it points at them. That's why you wumao will never have any credibility - no matter how much you squawk.

Wow, really? I wish the CCP paid me.

Now, here's the thing. I truly love Chinese culture. My wife is from China, and she has nothing but great things to say about Mao Zedong. (Probably kinder to him than I would be.)

the problem with most American views on China is that we see it in terms of a lot of leftover Cold War nonsense. The Chinese see these things as issues of national sovereignty. And if anything, they really have been pretty restrained. They didn't just march into Hong Kong when the CCP took over and the British Empire couldn't make good on any threats. Instead, they honored the treaty that the Qing Dynasty has signed (under duress after the first Opium War) and waited for the lease to expire. Sure, they reasserted their authority over Tibet, but they let the place have autonomy, and it wasn't like life under the theocracy was a bowl of cherries. (Something you never hear about from Richard Gere.

I personally wished they allowed more democracy and freedom of religion (although I'm not religious myself, and have little use for it.)

But I also recognize, not everyone else is going to share our values.

Taiwan isn't part of China - no Taiwanese says so, and it's their opinion which matters, nobody else's.
China doesn't have the military power to conquer Taiwan by force. CCP know that such an attempt would be the end of CCP.

Then they should probably stop calling themselves "The Republic of China" if they think that.

Actually, if push came to shove, they probably do have the military force, but it would be too costly to do, which is why I suspect they won't try unless Taipei does something stupid.

My question is, why should we get involved?

 

[Luce]

Who the **** is Kyle Bass?

 

[sanman]

Except...

They call themselves the Republic of China and insist the few countries they have formal diplomatic relations with call them that, too. I personally think it's a tad delusional, but that's what they are calling themselves.

Big ****ing deal. South Korea has Korea in their name -- does that make them the property of North Korea?
Does New South Whales belong to Whales in Britain? Does New York belong to the British county of York? Does Nova Scotia belong to Scotland?

"Except... they speak Mandarin... so we own them"

Ridiculous. Get real.

Taiwan has 12 diplomatic allies that recognise Taiwan as the ROC (and thus do not have official relations with Beijing): Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Marshall Islands, Palau, Paraguay, St Lucia, St Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Eswatini and Tuvalu.

Wow, really? I wish the CCP paid me.

Now, here's the thing. I truly love Chinese culture. My wife is from China, and she has nothing but great things to say about Mao Zedong. (Probably kinder to him than I would be.)

Mao was one of the worst mass-murderers of the 20th century -- probably caused more deaths than anybody else, actually.

the problem with most American views on China is that we see it in terms of a lot of leftover Cold War nonsense. The Chinese see these things as issues of national sovereignty. And if anything, they really have been pretty restrained. They didn't just march into Hong Kong when the CCP took over and the British Empire couldn't make good on any threats. Instead, they honored the treaty that the Qing Dynasty has signed (under duress after the first Opium War) and waited for the lease to expire. Sure, they reasserted their authority over Tibet, but they let the place have autonomy, and it wasn't like life under the theocracy was a bowl of cherries. (Something you never hear about from Richard Gere.

I personally wished they allowed more democracy and freedom of religion (although I'm not religious myself, and have little use for it.)

But I also recognize, not everyone else is going to share our values.

Trying to invade other countries goes a whole lot farther than not sharing values.

Then they should probably stop calling themselves "The Republic of China" if they think that.

Actually, if push came to shove, they probably do have the military force, but it would be too costly to do, which is why I suspect they won't try unless Taipei does something stupid.

My question is, why should we get involved?

That's a fair question. The US may decide to pull back from its security commitments to East Asia, including Taiwan. If China conquers that place, then US security architecture in East Asia would fall apart.
Japan may have to go nuclear, and South Korea might follow. All of a sudden, Australia will be looking a lot more vulnerable than before. China will come to dominate a large portion of the Pacific.

 

[JoeB131]

Big ****ing deal. South Korea has Korea in their name -- does that make them the property of North Korea?
Does New South Whales belong to Whales in Britain? Does New York belong to the British county of York? Does Nova Scotia belong to Scotland?

Those places were named because they were British Colonies. (New South Wales STILL recognizes Charles III as their monarch.)

As for Korea, you have two governments claiming to be the legitimate government of Korea. At some point, there will be re-unification, probably after the Chinese get tired of propping up North Korea.

"Except... they speak Mandarin... so we own them"

Ridiculous. Get real.

Except, Taiwan has been a part of China since the Ming Dynasty in the 15th Century. That's why they all speak Mandarin, and China thinks they own them. And then we go back to that "One China" policy, or what the UN recognizes. Or what the government of Taiwan claims.

Mao was one of the worst mass-murderers of the 20th century -- probably caused more deaths than anybody else, actually.

I think there's a difference between Hitler, who sent people to camps for the express purpose of exterminating them, and Mao, who just embarked on some wrong-headed policies that caused famines. Really, you take out the Famine of 1959 (which had some natural causes as well as policy ones) and the worst thing you are left with is the Cultural Revolution, where the death toll might have been as low a 400K and as high as 2 million.

Interestingly, the Chinese themselves hold Mao largely blameless for both. They attribute the famine to natural causes, bureaucrats trying to curry favor with Beijing by lying about crop yields (resulting in China exporting rice they should have retained to feed their people), and the idiotic "Four Pests" policy, where people were killing sparrows because they ate rice, but resulting in an explosion of the insect population.

Trying to invade other countries goes a whole lot farther than not sharing values.

Okay, you walked right into that one.

China hadn't invaded anyone since 1979, when they invaded Vietnam in retaliation for Vietnam invading Cambodia.

Since 1979, the US has invaded:

Grenada
Lebanon
Panama
Iraq
Somalia
Haiti
Kosovo
Afghanistan
Iraq Again

And these are just the places we invaded; I'm not counting the places we've bombed.

Do you know what those devious Chinese are doing? They are going into countries and building roads, ports, and infrastructure.

That's a fair question. The US may decide to pull back from its security commitments to East Asia, including Taiwan. If China conquers that place, then US security architecture in East Asia would fall apart.
Japan may have to go nuclear, and South Korea might follow. All of a sudden, Australia will be looking a lot more vulnerable than before. China will come to dominate a large portion of the Pacific.

Or.... everyone takes a breath and realizes that Taiwan is an internal Chinese matter and the Spratleys aren't worth one human life.

I doubt Japan will ever go nuclear, simply because after Hiroshima, the popular opinion against nuclear weapons is so great.

You keep screaming about China being this great threat when they don't spend nearly as much on their military as we do and really don't have a history of aggression.

Heck, they haven't even claimed Outer Mongolia, a place that has been part of the Chinese realm in the past. Why? They feel it's easier to just do trade with it.

 

[sanman]

Those places were named because they were British Colonies. (New South Wales STILL recognizes Charles III as their monarch.)

That recognition is voluntary.

As for Korea, you have two governments claiming to be the legitimate government of Korea. At some point, there will be re-unification, probably after the Chinese get tired of propping up North Korea.

So you acknowledge that the Chinese are artificially dividing the Korean peninsula through their deliberate actions.

Except, Taiwan has been a part of China since the Ming Dynasty in the 15th Century. That's why they all speak Mandarin, and China thinks they own them. And then we go back to that "One China" policy, or what the UN recognizes. Or what the government of Taiwan claims.

There's no hereditary claim when the Taiwanese people are sovereign. That's like saying the British have an hereditary claim on America.
Nobody in Taiwan wants to be part of China, and that's what matters.

I think there's a difference between Hitler, who sent people to camps for the express purpose of exterminating them, and Mao, who just embarked on some wrong-headed policies that caused famines. Really, you take out the Famine of 1959 (which had some natural causes as well as policy ones) and the worst thing you are left with is the Cultural Revolution, where the death toll might have been as low a 400K and as high as 2 million.

Still among the worst mass-murderers. Mao treated people as expendable guinea pigs in his irrational fantasies.

Interestingly, the Chinese themselves hold Mao largely blameless for both. They attribute the famine to natural causes, bureaucrats trying to curry favor with Beijing by lying about crop yields (resulting in China exporting rice they should have retained to feed their people), and the idiotic "Four Pests" policy, where people were killing sparrows because they ate rice, but resulting in an explosion of the insect population.

Self-delusion. North Koreans also do this for Kims.

Okay, you walked right into that one.

China hadn't invaded anyone since 1979, when they invaded Vietnam in retaliation for Vietnam invading Cambodia.

Since 1979, the US has invaded:

Grenada
Lebanon
Panama
Iraq
Somalia
Haiti
Kosovo
Afghanistan
Iraq Again

And these are just the places we invaded; I'm not counting the places we've bombed.

None of those places were annexed by the US, while China seeks to annex Taiwan and its people who don't want CCP rule.

Do you know what those devious Chinese are doing? They are going into countries and building roads, ports, and infrastructure.

And getting them into debt traps, so that they can confiscate ports, infrastructure, and land.

Or.... everyone takes a breath and realizes that Taiwan is an internal Chinese matter and the Spratleys aren't worth one human life.

It's not a matter between Taiwanese and China when the Taiwanese ask for help from the outside world.

I doubt Japan will ever go nuclear, simply because after Hiroshima, the popular opinion against nuclear weapons is so great.

Oh, the Japanese will go nuclear - as likely would the South Koreans.

You keep screaming about China being this great threat when they don't spend nearly as much on their military as we do and really don't have a history of aggression.

They've attacked multiple neighbors, and continue their expansionism in the South China Sea and elsewhere. When you PLAN ships sailing between Japanese islands, it's an obvious provocation.

Heck, they haven't even claimed Outer Mongolia, a place that has been part of the Chinese realm in the past. Why? They feel it's easier to just do trade with it.

The Mongolians claimed them - and built a palace in what is now Beijing. So according to your standard, China belongs to the Mongols.

 

[Sweden]

Those places were named because they were British Colonies. (New South Wales STILL recognizes Charles III as their monarch.)

As for Korea, you have two governments claiming to be the legitimate government of Korea. At some point, there will be re-unification, probably after the Chinese get tired of propping up North Korea.



Except, Taiwan has been a part of China since the Ming Dynasty in the 15th Century. That's why they all speak Mandarin, and China thinks they own them. And then we go back to that "One China" policy, or what the UN recognizes. Or what the government of Taiwan claims.



I think there's a difference between Hitler, who sent people to camps for the express purpose of exterminating them, and Mao, who just embarked on some wrong-headed policies that caused famines. Really, you take out the Famine of 1959 (which had some natural causes as well as policy ones) and the worst thing you are left with is the Cultural Revolution, where the death toll might have been as low a 400K and as high as 2 million.

Interestingly, the Chinese themselves hold Mao largely blameless for both. They attribute the famine to natural causes, bureaucrats trying to curry favor with Beijing by lying about crop yields (resulting in China exporting rice they should have retained to feed their people), and the idiotic "Four Pests" policy, where people were killing sparrows because they ate rice, but resulting in an explosion of the insect population.



Okay, you walked right into that one.

China hadn't invaded anyone since 1979, when they invaded Vietnam in retaliation for Vietnam invading Cambodia.

Since 1979, the US has invaded:

Grenada
Lebanon
Panama
Iraq
Somalia
Haiti
Kosovo
Afghanistan
Iraq Again

And these are just the places we invaded; I'm not counting the places we've bombed.

Do you know what those devious Chinese are doing? They are going into countries and building roads, ports, and infrastructure.



Or.... everyone takes a breath and realizes that Taiwan is an internal Chinese matter and the Spratleys aren't worth one human life.

I doubt Japan will ever go nuclear, simply because after Hiroshima, the popular opinion against nuclear weapons is so great.

You keep screaming about China being this great threat when they don't spend nearly as much on their military as we do and really don't have a history of aggression.

Heck, they haven't even claimed Outer Mongolia, a place that has been part of the Chinese realm in the past. Why? They feel it's easier to just do trade with it.

Mao had millions killed. The deaths were not all caused by amine as you suggest.

 

[JoeB131]

Mao had millions killed. The deaths were not all caused by amine as you suggest.

I don't know, that anime can be pretty deadly.



Okay, going to try to take this seriously.

Number of deaths in the Mao regime- perhaps 35-60 million due to the famine during the Great Leap Forward, which was more incompetence than malice.
1.6 million killed during the Cultural Revolution
1 million killed in other campaigns.

This all sounds bad, until you realize other non-Communist tumults in Chinese history

End of the Ming Dynasty 1616 - 1649 - 25 million deaths.
Taiping Rebellion - 1850 to 1865- 20 to 100 million deaths.
Famine of 1906-1907 - 25 million deaths.
Famine of 1928-30 - 6 million deaths
Nothern famine of 1876- 79 - 13 million deaths.
Japanese invasion of 1931 to 1945 - 15 to 20 million.

 

[JoeB131]

I will try to limit this to your rational arguments.

So you acknowledge that the Chinese are artificially dividing the Korean peninsula through their deliberate actions.

No, they keep North Korea from collapsing into starvation and chaos, and most of the world thanks them for it.

There's no hereditary claim when the Taiwanese people are sovereign. That's like saying the British have an hereditary claim on America.
Nobody in Taiwan wants to be part of China, and that's what matters.

People in the South in 1861 didn't want to be part of the union. How'd that work out for them?

Still among the worst mass-murderers. Mao treated people as expendable guinea pigs in his irrational fantasies.

See the above list of other calamities in Chinese history.

Self-delusion. North Koreans also do this for Kims.

Not really comparable.

Whether someone is a hero or a villain largely depends on one's point of view. I used to work with some Indian people, and somehow, the conversation drifted to a discussion of Winston Churchill, and the gentleman I was talking to referred to him as a "Bastard". I was taken aback, being that most Americans are taught Churchill was a great guy. From the Indian point of view, though, he perpetuated the empire that was exploiting India, he caused a famine in 1943 that starved 4 million people (Churchill Joked, 'Has Gandhi starved yet?'), he promised India independence if they helped in the fight against the Axis and then tried to go back on his agreement.

So let's ask, why do the Chinese still revere Mao. Well, partially because the bad stuff is blamed on others. Lower level bureaucrats caused the famine of the Great Leap Forward, the Gang of Four (including Mao's wife) was responsible for the excesses of the Cultural Revolution. For most Chinese, Mao is still the equivalent of George Washington.

None of those places were annexed by the US, while China seeks to annex Taiwan and its people who don't want CCP rule.

We fought wars of aggression because these countries either had resources we wanted or we just didn't like their governments. China wants to reclaim their own territory. Not really the same thing.

They've attacked multiple neighbors, and continue their expansionism in the South China Sea and elsewhere. When you PLAN ships sailing between Japanese islands, it's an obvious provocation.

Okay, let's look at those "multiple neighbors.

They intervened to save North Korea in 1950 when the UN was getting a little too close to the Yalu. Smart diplomacy would have prevented that, but instead, we gave them a legitimate fear that China might be invaded again. (After all, the last invasion came through Korea.)

They had a border skirmish with India in 1962.

They invaded Vietnam to try to take pressure off of the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia.

That's it.

Sorry squabbling over some Islands in the South China Sea is just not a big deal.

Especially since CHina has the most legitimate claim compared to Vietnam and The Philippines.

 

[Loulit01]

One can argue that the CCP made some horrible mistakes, but you also have to look at the results.

China went from being a fractured, impoverished country in 1949 to being an ascending superpower today. There's a reason why Mao Zedong is revered in China today.

When we talk about "American exceptionalism", we tend to leave out the parts about slavery, the genocide of Native Americans, and the exploitation of immigrant labor during the industrial revolution.

The Great Leap Forward was a mistake, or particularly, the 1959-61 famine (which my wife lived through) was bad because of policies, but it also had roots in the fact that there was a drought. Combine that with local officials overreporting crop yields, and the government didn't see the problem in time. Shame on them.

**** China. If that's what it takes to become an "ascending superpower" the price is too high. China began ascending when it relaxed its command economy to a more market driven system. But the benefits gained have now slowed and may well stop. China can achieve another period of healthy and sustained growth, but only by further abandoning its unwieldly centrally controlled economy and transitioning to a free society.

In short, the less communist China becomes, the better its future will be.

China’s Economy Has Not Peaked

Chinese policymakers should allow for a more market-driven allocation of land, money, and labor.

insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/china-s-real-estate-crisis-property-sector-debt-is-getting-worse

Hong Kong was a money making machine until the communists thought they could do a better job.
They were mistaken.

In Hong Kong, decades of wealth gains evaporate on China’s watch

Hong Kong’s stock market is lower today than it was in 1997 when the territory returned to Chinese sovereignty.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[JoeB131]

**** China. If that's what it takes to become an "ascending superpower" the price is too high. China began ascending when it relaxed its command economy to a more market driven system. But the benefits gained have now slowed and may well stop. China can achieve another period of healthy and sustained growth, but only by further abandoning its unwieldly centrally controlled economy and transitioning to a free society.

In short, the less communist China becomes, the better its future will be.

Given that the Chinese are barely communist today, I think this is a moot point.

First, Americans really have no business talking about what the cost of ascending is. We built this country on the genocide of Native Americans, Slavery of black people (which didn't entirely end with the Civil War, look up "Debt Peonage" for more details) and the exploitation of immigrant labor.

So yes, the Chinese did suffer under the famine of 1959, which was bad, but unlike past famines and civil wars, China came out stronger on the other side of it.

Hong Kong was a money making machine until the communists thought they could do a better job.
They were mistaken.

Hong Kong is still a money machine, and they enjoy a lot of autonomy.

 

[Loulit01]

Given that the Chinese are barely communist today, I think this is a moot point.

The Chinese are plenty communist. Plenty. The communism is destroying Hong Kong as we speak.

First, Americans really have no business talking about what the cost of ascending is. We built this country on the genocide of Native Americans, Slavery of black people (which didn't entirely end with the Civil War, look up "Debt Peonage" for more details) and the exploitation of immigrant labor.

I've never denied any of that. I recently posted that what Israel is doing to the Palestinians reminds me of what we did to Native Americans. I know all our many sins. That does not excuse China's massive present day human rights violations, nor will it prevent me from commenting on them. Those defending them are the ones who have no right to talk.

So yes, the Chinese did suffer under the famine of 1959, which was bad, but unlike past famines and civil wars, China came out stronger on the other side of it.

It would be impossible to come out weaker. It's like saying I had my gangrenous leg amputated but I feel much better now.

Hong Kong is still a money machine, and they enjoy a lot of autonomy.

They enjoy less and less autonomy all the time. The money machine is drying up.

**** China. Long live free Taiwan!

Remember Tiananmen Square!

 

[JoeB131]

The Chinese are plenty communist. Plenty. The communism is destroying Hong Kong as we speak.

Okay, you go with that. The Chinese were Capitalists while Europeans were living in Mud huts.

I've never denied any of that. I recently posted that what Israel is doing to the Palestinians reminds me of what we did to Native Americans. I know all our many sins. That does not excuse China's massive present day human rights violations, nor will it prevent me from commenting on them. Those defending them are the ones who have no right to talk.

Except we weren't talking bout "present" sins, we were talking about stuff that happened 65 years ago.

Now, if you want to talk about present sins, we have a president who is about to open a concentration camp in Gitmo, and is rounding up thousands of people without due process.

It would be impossible to come out weaker. It's like saying I had my gangrenous leg amputated but I feel much better now.

Except not really. Compared to China in 1945, where it was devastated, fractured by warlords with private armies, a large percentage of the population addicted to opium, etc. By the 1960s, it was a major superpower that the West feared more than it feared the USSR.

Let's take a great example. Literacy. In 1945, only about 20% of the Chinese population could read or write. Today, that number is up to 96% (higher than the US). Why? Because those dirty stinking commies put an emphasis on education. It also helped that they simplified the Hanzi alphabet from 50,000 characters to a mere 8,000.

They enjoy less and less autonomy all the time. The money machine is drying up.

**** China. Long live free Taiwan!

Remember Tiananmen Square!

Maybe you should talk to actual Chinese about how they feel about those protesters.

They basically saw them as a bunch of ingrates. (Kind of the way the Greatest Generation" looked at the Hippies)

 

[Loulit01]

Okay, you go with that. The Chinese were Capitalists while Europeans were living in Mud huts.

And now they're a reprehensible authoritarian state. So I will go with that. And that's enough for me.

Except we weren't talking bout "present" sins, we were talking about stuff that happened 65 years ago.

Now, if you want to talk about present sins, we have a president who is about to open a concentration camp in Gitmo, and is rounding up thousands of people without due process.



Except not really. Compared to China in 1945, where it was devastated, fractured by warlords with private armies, a large percentage of the population addicted to opium, etc. By the 1960s, it was a major superpower that the West feared more than it feared the USSR.

Let's take a great example. Literacy. In 1945, only about 20% of the Chinese population could read or write. Today, that number is up to 96% (higher than the US). Why? Because those dirty stinking commies put an emphasis on education. It also helped that they simplified the Hanzi alphabet from 50,000 characters to a mere 8,000.


Maybe you should talk to actual Chinese about how they feel about those protesters.

They basically saw them as a bunch of ingrates. (Kind of the way the Greatest Generation" looked at the Hippies)

 

[JoeB131]

And now they're a reprehensible authoritarian state. So I will go with that. And that's enough for me.

Reprehensible to who?

For those playing along at home, my wife is from China. She sees things here that absolutely horrify her, and when you think about it, rightfully so.

China has nowhere near our levels of crime. You don't see graffiti on Chinese streets, garbage, or some smelly vagrant using the sidewalk as a bathroom.

WE might be horrified by their culture, they are largely fine with it.

As far as who is authoritarian... the US locks up more people than China does, even though they are a "communist" government with five times as many people. We have another 7 million people on probation or parole.

 

[SayMyName]

I don't know, that anime can be pretty deadly.

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