The only reason I was uncertain about Trump winning was because of all the votes that came in, out of nowhere, in 2020. Otherwise, it looked like a shoe-in. I also remember thinking that Obama was going to lose in 2012, he was just so terrible that there was no way he could win. But he won easily. How?
Then, in 2020, a lot of the hidden goings on of the election came to light. Trump was sailing to victory, riding on the wave of a great turnaround for the country. But, overnight, water leaks, boxes of votes coming in, a tractor trailer of ballots brought to PA, people filling drop boxes, etc... A lot that they couldn't keep under wraps. I think they knew they would lose, and decided to do what they had to do, and they would just have to explain away anything that came up. Once they were in control, that was easy. If they still lost, no one would waste their time on it.
They just couldn't do it this time, the election was being watched. The margin was to big.