The oil companies are changing alright, but not because of government regulation, those costs are simply passed on to consumers.
The larger oil companies look like they are preparing to switch to carbon neutral manmade fuels, because of market forces, that is where the greater profits will be.
In addition, it may eliminate some of the smaller competition.
Oil is a commodity just like any other raw material, and has a cost to get it to the refinery.
When the cost to make their own feedstock from atmospheric CO2, water and electricity is less than getting it from oil, that is the path they will follow.
The question is where is that price breakpoint?
That comes back to the efficiency of the Power to liquid process, AND, the wholesale costs of electricity.
Sunfire energy is projecting an 80% efficiency at large scale.
For the sake of discussion I will use a 70% efficiency.
A gallon of gasoline contains 33 Kwh of energy, at 70% efficiency, it would take 48 Kwh of electricity to make a gallon of fuel.
at a wholesale price of $0.05 per Kwh, that is $2.40 per gallon.
A barrel of oil yields about 35 gallons of usable fuel, so $2.40 times 35, equals $84 a barrel oil.
If the efficiency were higher, of the electricity price lower, the economic viability breakpoint will be lower.
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