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Joe Biden Is the Front-Runner — Over Democrats, and Donald Trump

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bubbabgone

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"As former Vice President Joe Biden prepares to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, he’s doing so as the front-runner, polling ahead of both fellow Democrats and President Donald Trump.

A new Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted April 19-21 among 1,992 registered voters found Biden leading the president by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup, 42 percent to 34 percent. Biden has a significant edge over Trump among women (17 points), millennials (22 points) and independents (10 points).

The national, online survey has a 2-point margin of error."​

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Joe Biden Is the Front-Runner -- Over Democrats, and Donald Trump

And Chris Christie says Biden can pull some working class voters from Trump to himself.
Interesting to watch.
 
Chris Christie still matters after his scandals?
 

I understand his appeal among moderate and conservative Democrats, as he represents most closely the old school views as opposed to the new Left views of the Party.

However, one does wonder how long this lead will last given the impact of possibly increasing "MeToo" allegations, as well as both pressure and lack of support from the more vocal extremists which seem to be guiding his Party these days.

Time will tell.
 

Yep, being a "centrist" Leftist, the Justice warriors will be all up his butt.
 
He's already been endorsed by Senators Chris Coons, Bob Casey and Doug Jones this morning. Interesting.
 


Biden's front runner status is probably due to name recognition. Although I'm pretty sure Biden could beat Trump, old Joe is liked by independents and would win their vote. Hillary lost independents as independents disliked her a whole lot more than Trump. I don't think Biden can win in the Democratic primaries. I'd like to be proven wrong about that, Joe would have my vote against Trump. Several others in the democratic field wouldn't. Several others also would have a very hard time attracting independents.

This is why I say whether or not the Democrats win in 2020 by a landslide, eek by or lose all depends on whom they nominate. I study independents, it that group that will decide 2020 just like they did 2016. Not either major parties base. My question is will the Democrats learn from history? Have they learned candidates matter? Especially to independents. In February 2016 a poll showed that 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone other than Hillary Clinton. The Democrats ignored America as a whole and we know the results. How accurate was that poll and was it a forecast for 2016? Consider that 46% of Americans voted for Trump, another 6% voted against Hillary and Trump casting a ballot for third party candidates. That comes out to 52%, almost exactly the 56% who wanted the Democrats to nominate someone else than Clinton.
 
Another Politico poll. :roll:
 
Biden is (said to be) the front-runner simply based on name recognition (Obama 3.0?) and the fact that he has not (yet) proposed going much further left by adding multiple new and costly social programs based on more income redistribution. As it stands now, individual federal income tax revenue would have to be increased by about 40% just to eliminate the current federal "budget" deficit.
 

I have to agree. I just dont see Biden being able to win the primary. I think there is no doubt he would be the strongest against Trump because he would get a lot of moderate voters and NeverTrump voters. Which would be huge. If I am not mistaken the McCains and Bush's have said something about how they could see themselves supporting Biden. They are unlikely to vote for any other democrat that wins. Thats the issue for 2020. If that 10-15% ends up voting for Howard Schultz because the dems went too far left Trump wins again. I know I keep hearing over and over that a far left progressive can bring out more new voters, but it isnt likely they are located in the right geographical places to win the electoral college.
 
One interesting thing to watch will be to what extent and in what ways Biden is able to separate himself from many of the positions of the others in the field and still win some primary states.
He's also likely going to have problems of a more personal/family nature to deal with.
 

He also isnt going the individual donor route. He is going all in for corporate cash. He is dining with Blue Cross and Comcast tonight for a fundraiser. Some are not going to like that at all.
 
pilot16 said:
He also isnt going the individual donor route. He is going all in for corporate cash. He is dining with Blue Cross and Comcast tonight for a fundraiser. Some are not going to like that at all.
Click to expand...

Are we suggesting that his Party may be growing away from him?
 
bubbabgone said:
Are we suggesting that his Party may be growing away from him?
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His party, yes. The nation, no. Thats sort of the dilemma here. No question Biden can beat Trump. He will easily win over the rust belt and possibly quite a few Romney type republicans. But in a democratic party, they likely skew much further left, young, female and are not white. Having an almost 80 year old white man who will have to explain how he was friends with Strom Thurmond and was against desegregation is likely to kill him with a young progressive base.
 

There is a scandal brewing involving Biden, his son and the government of Ukraine during his time as VP.

And if he wants support of union workers he best distance himself from the New Green Deal proposals. AFL-CIO president said this week he does not support it as it would be harmful to labor workers.

His video released this morning did not put forth any new ideas but instead played the race card and focused on the evils of Trump. He's going to need more than that to be seen as a candidate that can gain support from Independents and those deplorable Democrats who voted for Trump.
 

Hey pilot, any early predictions on who will take our state in the Democratic primary? I don't see it being Bernie again. Yes, I know it's early, but the speculation has already begun, and all eyes are on us from here on in.
 

The McCain family has declared their support for Biden. Not sure about the Bush family. I don't see them supporting Trump but also don't see them supporting Biden at this conjecture.
 
Whichever one of them that is likely to defeat Tweety will have my support.
 
tres borrachos said:
Hey pilot, any early predictions on who will take our state in the Democratic primary? I don't see it being Bernie again. Yes, I know it's early, but the speculation has already begun, and all eyes are on us from here on in.
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At this point I do think Sanders will take it. Buttigieg has the possibility of overtaking him, but from what I have been reading the knives are out for him over the firing of a black police chief in South Bend. Sanders is just so popular at this point. Plus if Trump gets a challenger, Weld or Hogan, I bet a lot more indie voters will vote in the R primary which would skew the D primary more left. But anything is possible as its early.
 
pilot16 said:
He also isnt going the individual donor route. He is going all in for corporate cash. He is dining with Blue Cross and Comcast tonight for a fundraiser. Some are not going to like that at all.
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Better than getting it from Russia via the NRA...
 
Being the front runner this early hasn't worked out too well in the past, we'll just have to see if Joe can hold on. Much rather he get it than Bernie!
 

I've already made up my mind to vote for Weld in the primary. That is easy. The hard part is the general.

I don't see Sanders taking NH next year. Don't know why I say or feel that.

Buttigieg is already making a splash which is interesting. Warren won't get past NH. Biden may perform well here. The rest? Don't know.

I'm still trying to figure out who the GOP is going to run against Chris Pappas in my district (I think you're in Kuster's), and who is going to challenge Shaheen. I'd put Sununu in the "safe" category. I like the man.
 

I don't know what percentage of the electorate first time voters make up. I would estimate them at less than 10% and probably as low as 5%. Independents make up around 40% of the total electorate. At least according to Gallup and Pew Research. Pew listed independents at 37% in 2017. Which has increased since then to around 42%.

Party Identification Trends, 1992-2017 | Pew Research Center

I think the numbers prove that going after independents would be much more profitable than trying to entice new voters. But it's where the Democrats place their priorities, not where I would that will define how well they do in 2020.
 
tres borrachos said:
The McCain family has declared their support for Biden. Not sure about the Bush family. I don't see them supporting Trump but also don't see them supporting Biden at this conjecture.
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I cant remember the exact numbers but there was a stat that said the election will come down to 10% of the actual voters and most of them are center right. In 2008, Obama won around that percent of R voters which gave him the victory. Same for Trump. So in 2020, I assume if somebody moderate like Biden wins, those votes will allow him to win. One report said the general election will end up being the average union worker in the rust belt, who will he vote for? Not sure I buy that but I can understand it electorally.
 

So as early as it is, play it out. There are Center, Center-Left, Progressive and Far Left Dems. How would they spread in a general v Trump:
- Center Dems, will go for Biden in spades
- Center-Left Dems, not sure I can tell a dif between them and Center Dems as it relates to voting
- Progressives, a little tougher to see on issues, but they will not even be holding their noses to vote for Biden v Trump.
- Far-Left, will hold their noses and vote for Joe. What choice would they have?

Dems WILL NOT make the mistake of staying home on election day as they did for Hilary in 2016. The Dems could put up Satan himself in 2020 and nobody is staying home on Election day 2020.

Biden is smart to already be running like he is in the General, past the primaries and convention and has the nomination. He is the polling leader, represents the old guard Dem establishment. Its the right political move for him. Let the others squabble about whether inmates in prison for violent crimes should be allowed to vote. Plus once Schultz is gone from the field, Biden will pick up some number of what are now closet Elephants driven there by the Trumplicans.

A Biden candidacy will drive that idiot Schultz from the field completely and will turn it into a fight for the Independents. Will more Independents fall for Biden or fall for Trump? Frankly on this date in 2019, I would take that bet for Biden every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

The key for Biden will be to not get caught up in the squabbling to his Left because at the end of the day, if its Biden v Trump, those supporting candidates to his left will high hurdle to the polls to vote for Joe.
 
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