Job Market Continues to be Red Hot

[Mina]

The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, extending an epic run of job creation:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

At this point, the country has 8.963 million more jobs than we did when Biden first took office. Just to put the magnitude of that gain in perspective, before Biden took office, the most jobs the economy had EVER created over a period of that length was 6.26 million.

Blowing away an old record by 43% is spectacular. To put it in sporting terms, the most yards any QB has ever passed for in a season is 5,477, so the equivalent would be if someone went out this year and threw for 7,842.

Even if we think of it in terms of percentages, instead of raw job creation, it's the strongest performance in almost four decades... and by far the strongest ever in a period without interest rate cuts and rising deficits.

At this point, we're only 524,000 jobs shy of having completely erased the unprecedented job losses of the Trump era. So, at the present pace, we'd be in all-time record territory for total job count in about six weeks.

 

[mrjurrs]

The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, extending an epic run of job creation:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

At this point, the country has 8.963 million more jobs than we did when Biden first took office. Just to put the magnitude of that gain in perspective, before Biden took office, the most jobs the economy had EVER created over a period of that length was 6.26 million.

Blowing away an old record by 43% is spectacular. To put it in sporting terms, the most yards any QB has ever passed for in a season is 5,477, so the equivalent would be if someone went out this year and threw for 7,842.

Even if we think of it in terms of percentages, instead of raw job creation, it's the strongest performance in almost four decades... and by far the strongest ever in a period without interest rate cuts and rising deficits.

At this point, we're only 524,000 jobs shy of having completely erased the unprecedented job losses of the Trump era. So, at the present pace, we'd be in all-time record territory for total job count in about six weeks.

The contrast between the jobs market and the consumer market is puzzling. Coming recession? Strong forces pulling each way.

 

[Helix]

I hope that the good numbers continue, but this level of growth does not seem like something we should expect every month.

 

[Noodlegawd]

At this point, the country has 8.963 million more jobs than we did when Biden first took office. Just to put the magnitude of that gain in perspective, before Biden took office, the most jobs the economy had EVER created over a period of that length was 6.26 million.

Biden took office in the middle of a practically nationwide pandemic lockdown. The number of jobs today is still lower than it was a before the pandemic hit, even though the lockdowns have been over for quite some time.



Talk about "perspective."

 

[Mina]

The contrast between the jobs market and the consumer market is puzzling. Coming recession? Strong forces pulling each way.

Yes, it's interesting that there seems to have been a slowing of consumer spending even as businesses staff up. But hiring decisions are a trailing indicator, so maybe the businesses are still catching up with 2021, which had the strongest economic growth in 40 years.

 

[Mina]

Biden took office in the middle of a practically nationwide pandemic lockdown.

He did not. Most of the lockdowns ended in April and May of 2020. Florida ended their stay-at-home order April 30,2020. New York did on May 15, 2020. Etc. You can see that with the sudden surge of hiring in May, June, and July of 2020 (+2.6 million, +4.5 million, +1.4 million), as furloughed workers returned to their jobs en masse. But, that post-lockdown hiring spree soon lost steam, and by the end of the Trump administration, we were actually losing jobs (-115k in his last full month in office).

Fortunately, that changed once Biden took office, and we've had between 263k and 714k jobs created every single month since then.

The number of jobs today is still lower than it was a before the pandemic hit.....

Yes, I mentioned that specifically. The Trump-era job losses were so massive that even Biden setting records for the most jobs ever created over a period of this length (a record by a large margin), it's taken all this time to erase the damage. But, at the current pace we're only about 6 weeks out from a new all-time high.

 

[Mina]

I hope that the good numbers continue, but this level of growth does not seem like something we should expect every month.

With the Federal Reserve jumping up and down on the economy's throat, trying desperately to kill it, I expect job losses to show up soon. But I wasn't expecting as many jobs to be created last month as were, so maybe I'll be proven wrong.

 

[Gatsby]

I am cautiously more optimistic that we will be able to raise interest rates enough to tame inflation without causing a recession. Or if we do get one, I'm much more optimistic that it will be a short and mild recession. We'll see what the CPI report says next Wednesday, but unless there has been a major downturn in inflation, I think it would be wise for the Fed to hike interest rates 75 points again. The strong economy seems capable of absorbing the blow.

 

[Helix]

With the Federal Reserve jumping up and down on the economy's throat, trying desperately to kill it, I expect job losses to show up soon. But I wasn't expecting as many jobs to be created last month as were, so maybe I'll be proven wrong.

we're still running on pent up demand after the pandemic. that won't last forever. what makes me angry is seeing swarms of Republicans hoping for a recession that will hurt all of us.

 

[Mina]

we're still running on pent up demand after the pandemic. that won't last forever. what makes me angry is seeing swarms of Republicans hoping for a recession that will hurt all of us.

They generally want to see things go badly for the US. That's particularly pronounced during Democratic administrations, since they can blame everything on the leader then, but they even get gleeful for certain kind of calamities during Republican eras (e.g., terrorist attacks and crime), because they see those things as being useful for the further acquisition and maintenance of power by their faction.

 

[tres borrachos]

Biden took office in the middle of a practically nationwide pandemic lockdown. The number of jobs today is still lower than it was a before the pandemic hit, even though the lockdowns have been over for quite some time.

View attachment 67400811

Talk about "perspective."

No. Most states ended their lockdowns in 2020, well before Biden took office.

 

[SuperDS77]

The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, extending an epic run of job creation:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

At this point, the country has 8.963 million more jobs than we did when Biden first took office. Just to put the magnitude of that gain in perspective, before Biden took office, the most jobs the economy had EVER created over a period of that length was 6.26 million.

Are you serious with this bovine scat? The jobs are not yet equivalent to pre-covid levels, which would be the correct comparison.

to say Biden "created" these millions of jobs is beyond misleading. most, i hope, understand that the VAST majority of these jobs are people coming back to work after the pandemic.

Blowing away an old record by 43% is spectacular. To put it in sporting terms, the most yards any QB has ever passed for in a season is 5,477, so the equivalent would be if someone went out this year and threw for 7,842.

Even if we think of it in terms of percentages, instead of raw job creation, it's the strongest performance in almost four decades... and by far the strongest ever in a period without interest rate cuts and rising deficits.

At this point, we're only 524,000 jobs shy of having completely erased the unprecedented job losses of the Trump era. So, at the present pace, we'd be in all-time record territory for total job count in about six weeks.

That the Biden administration continues to tout this as some sort of achievement to those who have no concept of these things is regrettable.


Or, perhaps you could tell us the key policy initiatives that helped "create" these millions of jobs?

 

[Noodlegawd]

He did not. Most of the lockdowns ended in April and May of 2020. Florida ended their stay-at-home order April 30,2020. New York did on May 15, 2020. Etc. You can see that with the sudden surge of hiring in May, June, and July of 2020 (+2.6 million, +4.5 million, +1.4 million), as furloughed workers returned to their jobs en masse. But, that post-lockdown hiring spree soon lost steam, and by the end of the Trump administration, we were actually losing jobs (-115k in his last full month in office).

There were still plenty of restrictions during that time period and a massive winter surge taking place. Practically no concerts in many states, sporting events, indoor dining, you name it.

In contrast, pretty much all restrictions have been lifted in the last 5-6 months, but we see no corresponding acceleration back towards pre-pandemic levels.

Fortunately, that changed once Biden took office, and we've had between 263k and 714k jobs created every single month since then.


Yes, I mentioned that specifically. The Trump-era job losses were so massive that even Biden setting records for the most jobs ever created over a period of this length (a record by a large margin), it's taken all this time to erase the damage. But, at the current pace we're only about 6 weeks out from a new all-time high.

The trend that is occurring during Biden's presidency is just the natural rebound of jobs lost to the pandemic. Most of it occurred while Trump was still president, and the remainder has been painfully slow since Biden took office.

 

[Mina]

...The jobs are not yet equivalent to pre-covid levels, which would be the correct comparison.

I already addressed that. Yes, it's true: the Trump-era job losses were so massive that even this record-breaking run of job creation hasn't quite erased all the damage yet. At the present pace, it'll take another six weeks before we're setting a new all-time high for job count.

to say Biden "created" these millions of jobs is beyond misleading.

No. To talk about those jobs being "created" is entirely consistent with how the terminology has always been used. It's only very recently that a pack of butt-hurt right-wingers started insisting that we're not allowed to refer to "job creation" if the total job count is below some prior record. That was never before the case, and you can find consistent talk about job creation in prior periods when jobs were being added but hadn't yet fully erased prior losses.

most, i hope, understand that the VAST majority of these jobs are people coming back to work after the pandemic.

What makes you think that?

Or, perhaps you could tell us the key policy initiatives that helped "create" these millions of jobs?

Absolutely. For starters, there are the successful efforts to rein in the pandemic. You can see the huge difference, for example, between December 2020 and December 2021. In December 2020, with little vaccination having been done and an overall sense that pandemic response was being handled by a super-spreader moron, there was a lot of apprehension when case counts went up, and so people moved to protect themselves by disengaging from the economy. Thus, the economy lost jobs. In December 2021, by comparison, anyone who wanted to be vaccinated had been, and there was an understanding that the grownups were back in charge, so even when a seasonal uptick in cases happened, people remained confident, the economy kept right on chugging along, and jobs were created.

There's also the infrastructure bill, and the COVID rescue package, and the end of the job-destroying trade war with China, and just the way Biden and his team of technocrats has inspired more confidence among employers than Trump's gang-who-couldn't-shoot-straight did.

 

[Mycroft]

The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, extending an epic run of job creation:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

At this point, the country has 8.963 million more jobs than we did when Biden first took office. Just to put the magnitude of that gain in perspective, before Biden took office, the most jobs the economy had EVER created over a period of that length was 6.26 million.

Blowing away an old record by 43% is spectacular. To put it in sporting terms, the most yards any QB has ever passed for in a season is 5,477, so the equivalent would be if someone went out this year and threw for 7,842.

Even if we think of it in terms of percentages, instead of raw job creation, it's the strongest performance in almost four decades... and by far the strongest ever in a period without interest rate cuts and rising deficits.

At this point, we're only 524,000 jobs shy of having completely erased the unprecedented job losses of the Trump era. So, at the present pace, we'd be in all-time record territory for total job count in about six weeks.

To be factual, Biden hasn't "created" a single job. All we've done is gain back some of the jobs that our Governors destroyed in 2020.

 

[Greenbeard]

The jobs are not yet equivalent to pre-covid levels, which would be the correct comparison.

Government jobs lag behind.

Private-sector employment has recovered to prepandemic levels. (Published 2022)

Service businesses continue to climb back, but government payrolls are still short of February 2020 levels.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Mina]

There were still plenty of restrictions during that time period and a massive winter surge taking place.

There are still some restrictions in this time, and we also went through a massive winter surge this past winter.

The trend that is occurring during Biden's presidency is just the natural rebound of jobs lost to the pandemic.

Understood. Similarly, the Obama-era job creation was just the "natural rebound" of jobs that had been lost during the second of Bush's two recessions. And the vast job creation of the Clinton era was just a "natural rebound" of jobs lost during the other Bush's recession. And the Carter-era job creation (when the rate of job creation was actually a bit higher than even Clinton's, and much higher than that schmuck Reagan's) was just a natural rebound from the Ford recession. And the epic job creation of the Kennedy/Johnson years was just a "natural rebound" of jobs that had been lost during the third of Eisenhower's three recessions. And the huge job gains during the FDR/Truman years were just a "natural rebound" from the Great Depression.

That's actually a wonderful way for people to think about their votes. If you'd like to see jobs "naturally rebounding" for another four years, vote for a Democrat. Sure, you'll have to listen to right-wing propagandists insisting the president has nothing to do with that success, but the consolation will be the success itself. Or if, instead, you prefer the idea of massive job losses, so that we have another opportunity for a "natural rebound" somewhere in the more distant future, then vote the Republican. Again, the propagandists will kindly be there to explain to you why it would be super mean to blame that on the Republican's leadership, and perhaps that will come as a comfort to you while you look for work.

Most of it occurred while Trump was still president, and the remainder has been painfully slow since Biden took office.

Wow, if THE MOST JOBS EVER CREATED OVER A PERIOD OF THIS LENGTH IN AMERICAN HISTORY (by a large margin) is "painfully slow," what's your label for all those other times in our history, when each and every one of them was so very much slower?

 

[Mina]

To be factual, Biden hasn't "created" a single job. All we've done is gain back some of the jobs that our Governors destroyed in 2020.

To be factual, the convention has, for generations, been to refer to any net increase in jobs in a given month as jobs "created," whether or not we're setting new all-time highs for total job counts. But the wingnuts really started to feel shitty about themselves in the face of month after month of reports acknowledging the MASSIVE Biden-era job creation. So they want to create a new rule (which, of course, will expire the moment there's a Republican president) that you're not allowed to call those net job increases jobs that have been "created." That's a big no-no now, for those who take their marching orders from the Murdoch tabloid empire. Out here among the grownups, though, the terminology is just continuing to be used the same way it always has been.

 

[Noodlegawd]

There are still some restrictions in this time, and we also went through a massive winter surge this past winter.

What restrictions?

Understood. Similarly, the Obama-era job creation was just the "natural rebound" of jobs that had been lost during the second of Bush's two recessions. And the vast job creation of the Clinton era was just a "natural rebound" of jobs lost during the other Bush's recession. And the Carter-era job creation (when the rate of job creation was actually a bit higher than even Clinton's, and much higher than that schmuck Reagan's) was just a natural rebound from the Ford recession. And the epic job creation of the Kennedy/Johnson years was just a "natural rebound" of jobs that had been lost during the third of Eisenhower's three recessions. And the huge job gains during the FDR/Truman years were just a "natural rebound" from the Great Depression.

If you want to present some data on those other things, I'd be happy to discuss. Otherwise, this is whataboutism.

That's actually a wonderful way for people to think about their votes. If you'd like to see jobs "naturally rebounding" for another four years, vote for a Democrat. Sure, you'll have to listen to right-wing propagandists insisting the president has nothing to do with that success, but the consolation will be the success itself. Or if, instead, you prefer the idea of massive job losses, so that we have another opportunity for a "natural rebound" somewhere in the more distant future, then vote the Republican. Again, the propagandists will kindly be there to explain to you why it would be super mean to blame that on the Republican's leadership, and perhaps that will come as a comfort to you while you look for work.

What has Biden done, specifically, to cause creation of jobs that otherwise wouldn't have happened through normal operation of the economy?

Wow, if THE MOST JOBS EVER CREATED OVER A PERIOD OF THIS LENGTH IN AMERICAN HISTORY (by a large margin) is "painfully slow," what's your label for all those other times in our history, when each and every one of them was so very much slower?

That's not even remotely true. Far more jobs were "created" between April 2020 and January 2020, than have been "created" since then.

 

[Mina]

What restrictions?

For example, continued Covid testing requirements for cruise passengers.

If you want to present some data on those other things, I'd be happy to discuss. Otherwise, this is whataboutism.

That's another good thing for voters to keep in mind. If they want good job creation, vote for a Dem, and not only will they get a lot of new jobs, they'll also get the comforting drone of thousands or right wingers spouting random lines like "straw man," "whataboutism," "false equivalence," and any other rhetorical catch-phrases they may have heard, to avoid acknowledging what's happening in the real world. This can sometimes help with insomnia.

What has Biden done, specifically, to cause creation of jobs that otherwise wouldn't have happened through normal operation of the economy?

Well, considering he inherited an abnormally operating economy, returning us to a more normal footing is part of what he did. They included, for example, ending Trump's counter-productive trade war with China. In addition to that, he helped push through a giant infrastructure bill, along with a major package of COVID relief.

And I think it would be a mistake to understate the psychological benefit of simply knowing there's a grown-up in charge again, rather than employers standing by, waiting for the other shoe to drop with the bloated orange toddler. Like if you were Bezos or some other corporate leader, would you be quite as eager to staff up, to meet anticipated demand, if looming in the back of your mind was that the imbecile-in-chief might randomly decide to take revenge on the company for a perceived personal slight in a way that could cost billions?

Amazon: Trump used “improper pressure” to block AWS from DOD cloud contract

Trump said “screw Amazon” and used contract as political weapon against Bezos, suit claims.

arstechnica.com

The decision to hire someone is an investment in the future, and with an erratic weirdo in the Oval Office, throwing tantrums left and right, that's a real leap of faith.

On paper, the mediocre Trump job creation rate even before the pandemic is a bit puzzling, when you recall the gigantic deficit increases that ought to have been superheating the economy, along with such loose money supply (even before the pandemic). That mediocrity makes more sense, though, when you factor in how apprehensive people were in the face of such bizarre leadership. Given the solid fundamentals left by Obama, and the Fed and Congress pouring gasoline on the fire, businesses were willing to hire, but much slower than you might have expected given all of that. Then, at the first sign of trouble, they lay people off at a staggering rate -- with an understandable lack of confidence that the current clown show could handle a crisis.

You can see that by looking at the difference in the unemployment rate between the US and other leading nations over time. Here is is for France:

The US improved relative to France during the Obama years, and by the end of his time, their unemployment rate was 5.5 points higher than ours. Then, France improved slightly relative to the US in the pre-Pandemic Trump era, closing that gap to 4.3 in Feb 2020. But then we had to face a pandemic with people knowing an imbecile was in charge, and businesses laid people off massively, inverting that gap. Even after the shutdowns ended and there was a return of workers from furloughs, we didn't get close to the gap we used to have over France. The good news is under Biden we've really built on that, and now we are back up to a 3.6 gap.

That's not even remotely true.

It's demonstrably true. Feel free to try to prove me wrong: during what period the length of Biden's presidency (17 months for job counts) have we ever created this many jobs? Sure, you could try to cherry-pick some shorter period of the Trump presidency to compare it to, but look for any 17-month period.

Here, I'll help, by sharing the results for Trump's last 17 months:

8.064 million jobs destroyed. By comparison, there have been 8.963 million created during Biden's first 17.

Facts matter.

 

[Deuce]

Biden took office in the middle of a practically nationwide pandemic lockdown. The number of jobs today is still lower than it was a before the pandemic hit, even though the lockdowns have been over for quite some time.

View attachment 67400811

Talk about "perspective."

Yes, it was quite the hole to dig out of. So what?

 

[Mina]

Yes, it was quite the hole to dig out of. So what?

A parable:

A middle-aged man wrecked his health by eating grossly excessive amounts of junk food while seldom leaving the couch. After putting on 100 lbs, he started a diet. After 17 months on the diet, he's lost 92 pounds and is continuing to lose rapidly, such that at the present pace he'll be hitting the lowest weight of his adult life within a month or two. However, he concludes it must be a bad diet, because he's still not down to the weight he was at before he let himself go to shit. He's starting to think maybe he'd be better off just going back to eating the way he used to.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, extending an epic run of job creation:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

At this point, the country has 8.963 million more jobs than we did when Biden first took office. Just to put the magnitude of that gain in perspective, before Biden took office, the most jobs the economy had EVER created over a period of that length was 6.26 million.

Blowing away an old record by 43% is spectacular. To put it in sporting terms, the most yards any QB has ever passed for in a season is 5,477, so the equivalent would be if someone went out this year and threw for 7,842.

Even if we think of it in terms of percentages, instead of raw job creation, it's the strongest performance in almost four decades... and by far the strongest ever in a period without interest rate cuts and rising deficits.

At this point, we're only 524,000 jobs shy of having completely erased the unprecedented job losses of the Trump era. So, at the present pace, we'd be in all-time record territory for total job count in about six weeks.

All of the jobs deficit is in government employment. Private sector jobs have reached pre pandemic levels.

 

[highroller]

To be factual, Biden hasn't "created" a single job. All we've done is gain back some of the jobs that our Governors destroyed in 2020.

LOL

 

[Noodlegawd]

Yes, it was quite the hole to dig out of. So what?

So it had nothing to do with Biden. It still hasn't returned to where it was.